4.4.1 Ukusebenza
Kwetsembeka libhekisela kangakanani imiphumela yokuhlola ukusekela a isiphetho more jikelele.
Ayikho experiment uphelele, futhi abacwaningi baye silulumagama olunzulu ukuze uchaze izinkinga kungenzeka. Ubuqiniso libhekisela ezingeni esiphakamisa ngalo imiphumela: se-eksperimenti ethile ukusekela abanye isiphetho letivamile. Ososayensi bezenhlalo baye bakuthola kuwusizo ukuqhekeza kwemukeleka zibe izinhlobo ezine eziyinhloko: kwezibalo isiphetho kwemukeleka, kwemukeleka yangaphakathi, ukwakha kwemukeleka, nobuqiniso yangaphandle (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, Ch 2) . Ukuba yingcweti imiqondo le izokunikeza tinhla tekutikhumbuta yengqondo critiquing ngcono design and analysis of ukuhlolwa, futhi ngeke kukusize ukuxhumana nabanye abacwaningi.
Statistical siphetho yiqiniso kwalesi sigxile ukuthi ngabe ukuhlaziya ngokwezibalo kwemininingwane ukuhlola kwakwenziwa ngendlela efanele. Esimeni semakhaya Schultz et al. (2007) Umbuzo onjalo angase kugxile kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ngekhompyutha yabo p-amagugu ngendlela efanele. ukuhlaziywa Statistical kungaphezu kwamandla anoma sale ncwadi, kodwa ngingasho ukuthi izimiso yezibalo okudingekayo ukuze ukuklama futhi ahlaziye nemaresiphi hhayi zitjhugulukile yobudala digital. Nokho, lo ezahlukene idatha imvelo ucwaningo digital ingabe ukudala amathuba amasha ezibalo (sib: ngekusebentisa izindlela zokufunda umshini ukulinganisa heterogeneity ukwelashwa imiphumela (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) ) kanye nezinselele ezintsha yezamakhompyutha (isib, luvimbe ucwaningo okukhulu (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) ).
Ukuba semthethweni Internal sigxile ngabe izinqubo yokulinga zazenziwa ngendlela efanele. Ukubuyela ekuhlolweni kwe- Schultz et al. (2007) , imibuzo mayelana yiqiniso kwalesi yangaphakathi babekwazi kuncike eqenjini ngokwethuba, ukulethwa ukwelashwa, kanye nesilinganiso nemiphumela. Ngokwesibonelo, ungase ukhathazeke ngokuthi lo abasizi ucwaningo akazange ukufunda amamitha kagesi enokwethenjelwa. Empeleni, Schultz kanye nozakwabo awabuthembi ngale nkinga futhi babenesifiso isampula amamitha ukufunda kabili; ngenhlanhla, imiphumela ngokuyinhloko kwakuyinkathi ezifanayo. Ngokuvamile, Schultz futhi experiment nozakwabo 'kubonakala sengathi okusezingeni kwemukeleka zangaphakathi, kodwa lokhu akulona icala njalo; field eziyinkimbinkimbi kanye ucwaningo inthanethi ngokuvamile iyangena nezinkinga ngempela wokwethula ukwelashwa okufanele kubantu abalungile kanye nekulinganisa imiphumela wonke umuntu. Ngenhlanhla, yobudala digital kungasiza ukunciphisa ukukhathazeka mayelana yiqiniso kwalesi yangaphakathi ngoba kwenza kube lula ukuqinisekisa ukuthi ukwelashwa ilethwa njengoba yakhelwe kulabo okufanele uyamukele ukukala imiphumela bonke abahlanganyeli.
Ukwakha yiqiniso kwalesi izikhungo emhlabeni okufanayo phakathi idatha kanye kwaqanjwa theory. Njengoba kushiwo eSahlukweni 2, kwaqanjwa kukhona imiqondo abstract ukuthi ososayensi bezenhlalo isizathu mayelana. Ngeshwa, le miqondo abstract aninami njalo incazelo ecacile kukalwa. Ukubuyela Schultz et al. (2007) , umbono wokuthi injunctive izindinganiso zomphakathi kungaba ehlise ukusetshenziswa kukagesi kudinga abacwaningi ukwakha ukwelashwa lokho kunganika lokuxhaphaza "kwezinkambiso injunctive social" (sib, mzwelo) futhi ukukala "ukusetshenziswa kukagesi". Ekuhloleni analog, abacwaningi abaningi eklanyelwe imithi yabo siqu futhi kulinganiswa ngemiphumela yalo siqu. Le ndlela kuqinisekisa ukuthi, ngangokunokwenzeka, ucwaningo ukufanisa kwaqanjwa abstract lafundvwako. Ekuhloleni digital lapho abacwaningi umlingani nezinkampani noma ohulumeni ukuba akukhulule zokwelapha futhi asebenzise njalo-on idatha systems ukukala imiphumela, lo mdlalo phakathi ukuhlola kanye kwaqanjwa theory kungase kube ngaphansi ezihambisanayo. Ngakho, Ngilindele ukuthi basungule kwemukeleka azothanda kube ukukhathazeka ezinkulu kwenziwa ucwaningo digital kuka yenholo analog.
Ekugcineni, kwemukeleka nekubaluleka yangaphandle sigxile ngabe imiphumela yomzamo kwakuyoba kuvame ukuba ezinye izimo. Ukubuyela Schultz et al. (2007) , omunye angase abuze, kuthanda lolu lwazi abantu mbono-ukuhlinzeka ofanayo mayelana yabo yokusebenzisa amandla ebuhlotsheni kontanga yabo futhi uphawu kwezinkambiso injunctive (isib, mzwelo) -reduce energy ukusetshenziswa uma kwenziwe ngendlela ehlukile e a setting ehlukene? Ngoba iningi eziklanywe kahle futhi kahle ukusebenzisa ukuhlolwa, ukukhathazeka mayelana yiqiniso kwalesi bangaphandle yazo ukuze kubhekwane. Esikhathini esidlule, le mpikiswano mayelana yiqiniso kwalesi yangaphandle baba ngamashumi njalo nje isigejane abantu abahlezi ekamelweni uzama ukucabanga ukuthi bekuyokwenzekani uma izinqubo kwenziwa ngendlela ehlukile, noma endaweni ehlukile, noma nabantu abahlukahlukene. Ngenhlanhla, yobudala digital kwenza abacwaningi ukudlulela ngale lezi IMIBONO idatha-free futhi zihlole kwemukeleka yangaphandle empirically.
Ngoba umphumela Schultz et al. (2007) kwakuyizikhathi ezithakazelisayo kangaka, inkampani ogama lakhe Opower abambisene ne Izinsiza e-United States ukuze phaka ukwelashwa kabanzi. Esekelwe design of Schultz et al. (2007) , Opower Ukudalwa egcizelele Ikhaya Imibiko Energy ukuthi kwadingeka modules ezimbili eziyinhloko, obonisa ukusetshenziswa kukagesi esihlobeni abendlu komakhelwane bayo ne mzwelo no one nokunikeza amathiphu ukwehlisa energy ukusetshenziswa (Figure 4.6). Khona-ke, ngokubambisana nabacwaningi Opower wagijima randomized kocwaningo kuhlola umtselela we Home Imibiko Energy. Ngisho noma ayemancane kakhulu ukwelashwa lokhu kucwaninga abangu ngokuvamile efike ngokomzimba-ngokuvamile ngokusebenzisa ubudala lomnenke kuyisidala mail-ngomphumela sasibalwa usebenzisa amadivaysi digital emhlabeni wangempela (isib, amandla amamitha). Kunokuba ngesandla lokuqoqa lolu lwazi ngocwaningo abasizi ngivakashele ngamunye, Opower nemaresiphi bonke kwenziwa ngokubambisana nezinkampani amandla okwenza abacwaningi ukuba ukufinyelela ukufundwa amandla. Ngakho, lezi insimu kwenziwa ucwaningo ukubona kancane digital abangu qalisa esiqalisweni ngezinga elikhulu at low izindleko onhlobonhlobo.
Figure 4.6: The Home Energy Imibiko Allcott (2011) kwadingeka Social Ukuqhathanisa Module futhi isenzo Izinyathelo Module.
In iqoqo lokuqala ucwaningo ezihilela amakhaya 600,000 akhonzwa 10 izinkampani Umbuso indawo emhlabeni United States, Allcott (2011) bathola ukuthi le Home Energy Umbiko ngihlaliswa ukusetshenziswa kukagesi ngo-1.7%. Ngamanye amazwi, imiphumela kusukela elikhulu kakhulu, isifundo more nokwahlukana ngamashumi qualitatively elifana umphumela Schultz et al. (2007) . Kodwa, ubukhulu umphumela lalilincane e Schultz et al. (2007) le imizi achazayo kanye injective kwezinkambiso isimo (lona emoticon) ziyancipha izinga lokusebenzisa ugesi ngo-5%. Isizathu ezinembile lomehluko ayaziwa, kodwa Allcott (2011) , wasikisela ukuthi lokhu samukeliswa emoticon abhalwe ngesandla njengengxenye yocwaningo exhasiwe by a eyunivesithi zingase zibe nethonya emikhulu ngokuziphatha kuka ethola emoticon ephrintiwe njengengxenye yombiko mass kukhiqizwa ovela inkampani amandla.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngo ucwaningo ezalandela, Allcott (2015) kusho umbiko wephephandaba i olwengeziwe 101 nemaresiphi okuhilela olwengeziwe ezindlini ezima-8 million. Kulezi 101 kwenziwa ucwaningo esilandelayo eKhaya Energy Umbiko waqhubeka abangele abantu ukuba wehlise ugesi ukusetshenziswa, kodwa imiphumela babe ezincane. Isizathu eqondile salokhu kwehla akaziwa, kodwa Allcott (2015) , wasikisela ukuthi ukuphumelela umbiko yabonakala sincipha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi ngoba empeleni kuyafakwa izinhlobo ezahlukene ababambiqhaza. Ngini ngokuqondile, Tinsita e ezindaweni sezemvelo babevame zamukele uhlelo phambilini kanye namakhasimende abo ngamashumi kubhekeleke kangcono izimo ekwelapheni. Njengoba Tinsita namakhasimende kwemvelo ngaphansi bamukela hlelo, ekulenzeni libe namandla wabonakala ukuncipha. Ngakho, njengoba nje eqenjini ucwaningo kuqinisekisa ukuthi ukwelashwa kanye control iqembu ziyafana, eqenjini ezindaweni zocwaningo kuqinisekisa ukuthi nezilinganiso kungenziwa generalized neqembu elilodwa labahlanganyeli kwabantu more jikelele (sicabange Isahluko 3 mayelana sampling). Uma amasayithi ucwaningo kungukuthi banambitha ngezikhathi, khona-ke nje okungaqondile-ngisho noma yakhelwe ngokuphelele futhi baqhuba umsebenzi wokulinga-kungaba yinkinga.
Zihlangene zonke, lezi 111 kwenziwa ucwaningo-10 e Allcott (2011) kanye 101 Allcott (2015) -involved abavela kulo lonke elase-United States amakhaya abantu abangaba yizigidi ezingu-8,5. Bathi ngokungaguquki zibonisa ukuthi Imibiko Ikhaya Energy ukunciphisa isilinganiso kukagesi ukusetshenziswa, umphumela esekela okutholakele original of Schultz kanye nozakwabo kusuka emakhaya 300 eCalifornia. Beyond nje ukulingisa le miphumela original, ucwaningo landela-up nazo zibonisa ukuthi ubukhulu umphumela kuyahlukana ngokuya indawo. Le iqoqo ucwaningo futhi inikeza nomfanekiso amaphuzu amabili jikelele mayelana necala elithile digital field ucwaningo. Okokuqala, abacwaningi bazokwazi empirically ikheli ukukhathazeka mayelana yiqiniso kwalesi yangaphandle uma izindleko egijima nemaresiphi liphansi, futhi lokhu kungaba khona uma umphumela wenziwa kakade kukalwa i njalo-on idatha uhlelo. Ngakho-ke, kusikisela ukuthi ucwaningo kufanele ibe phezu look-out for nokunye ukuziphatha ezithakazelisayo futhi ezibalulekile ezikhona kakade ezilotshwe, bese ukuklama nemaresiphi phezu kwalesi kwengqalasizinda ekhona yokulinganisa. Okwesibili, le iqoqo ucwaningo usikhumbuza ukuthi digital insimu ukucwaningwa hhayi nje inthanethi; ngokuya Ngilindele ukuthi bayoba yonke indawo nemiphumela eminingi kukalwa izinzwa imvelo yakhiwe.
Lezi zinhlobo ezine sokusebenza-kwezibalo isiphetho kwemukeleka, kwemukeleka yangaphakathi, enza semthethweni, kwemukeleka nekubaluleka-ahlinzeke yangaphandle uhlu olubhaliwe lwezinto engqondo ukusiza abacwaningi bahlole ngabe imiphumela kusuka experiment esithile ukusekela a isiphetho more jikelele. Uma kuqhathaniswa analog yobudala nemaresiphi e digital yobudala kwenziwa ucwaningo kufanele kube lula ukuba ukubhekana kwemukeleka yangaphandle empirically futhi kufanele kube lula kucinisekisa kwemukeleka zangaphakathi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izimpikiswano of enza ukuba semthethweni cishe kube inselele e digital age kwenziwa ucwaningo (nakuba ukuthi akubanga njalo ne Opower nemaresiphi).
