2.4.2 Ukubikezela kanye nowcasting
Ukubikezela ikusasa kunzima, kodwa ukubikezela samanje okulula.
Owesibili Isu main esetshenziswa ngokokukhetha kwabacwaningi ngedatha elibukelayo yena uqagula. Ukubikezela ikusasa elidume kunzima, kodwa singaba sikhulu ezibalulekile for abathatha izinqumo, kungakhathaliseki basebenza ezinkampanini noma ohulumeni.
Kleinberg et al. (2015) unikeza izindaba ezimbili ukuthi acacise ukubaluleka ukubikezela for izinkinga ezithile inqubomgomo. Cabanga nje eyodwa umenzi inqubomgomo, ngizobuya shayela Anna wakhe, obhekene isomiso futhi kumelwe anqume ukuthi ukuqasha shaman ukuba wenze dance imvula ukwandisa amathuba imvula. Omunye umenzi inqubomgomo, ngizobuya ukumbiza Bob, kumelwe anqume ukuthi uthathe isambulela ayisebenze ukuze bagweme ezimanzi endleleni ekhaya. Bobabili Anna Bob ungenza isinqumo esingcono uma ukuqonda sezulu, kodwa badinga ukwazi izinto ezahlukene. Anna kudingeka aqonde ukuthi ngabe dance imvula kubangela imvula. Bob, ngakolunye uhlangothi, akudingeki ukuba engaqondi lutho mayelana causality; yena nje idinga umhlahlo olunembile. Abacwaningi Social Bavame ukugxila kulokho Kleinberg et al. (2015) shayela izinkinga-labo inqubomgomo "imvula dance-like" ukuthi agxile causality-futhi ungazinaki izinkinga inqubomgomo "isambulela-like" ukuthi bagxile ukubikezela.
Ngizothanda ukuba Nokho, gxila okwakuvela ohlotsheni olukhethekile lwenkanyezi ukubikezela esibizwa nowcasting -a term lisuselwa esihlanganisa "manje" futhi "ukubikezela." Kunokuba ukubikezela ikusasa, nowcasting imizamo ukubikezela samanje (Choi and Varian 2012) . Ngamanye amazwi, nowcasting isebenzisa izindlela ukubikezela for izinkinga zokulinganisa. Ngenxa yalokho, kufanele kube ziwusizo ngokukhethekile ohulumeni abadinga izinyathelo ngesikhathi esifanele nangendlela oluyilona olumayelana nokuhlenga emazweni abo. Nowcasting ingacaciswa ngokucacile kakhulu isibonelo se-Google Flu Amathrendi.
Cabanga nje ukuthi uzizwa kancane ngaphansi sezulu ngakho uthayipha "amakhambi imfuluwenza" ibe injini yokusesha, ukuthola ikhasi izixhumanisi ekuphenduleni, bese ulandela omunye wabo lewebhu eziwusizo. Manje awucabange nje lo msebenzi lidlalwa out ngokombono injini yokusesha. Njalo ngomzuzwana, izigidi nemibuzo zivela emhlabeni wonke, futhi lokhu umfudlana imibuzo-lokho Battelle (2006) ubize "database ezinhle" - inikeza ifasitela avuselelwe singene collective consciousness global. Nokho, lesi umfudlana ulwazi yokukala yokwanda umkhuhlane kunzima. Simply uma ngibala up isibalo imibuzo for "amakhambi flu" kungase kungasebenzi kahle. Akuwona wonke umuntu onesifo ukusesha umkhuhlane amakhambi umkhuhlane hhayi wonke umuntu abacwaningi amakhambi umkhuhlane umkhuhlane.
The trick ezibalulekile futhi uhlakaniphile ngemuva Google Flu Amathrendi waphendula inkinga nesilinganiso ibe inkinga ukubikezela. I US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has an Umkhuhlane uhlelo lokuqapha eqoqa ulwazi kodokotela enarheni mazombe. Nokho, omunye inkinga lesi simiso CDC kukhona lamabili yokubika lag; isikhathi asithathayo idatha zivela odokotela ukuba zihlanzwe, kusetshenzwe, futhi ishicilelwe. Kodwa, lapho usingatha umqedazwe abasafufusa, amahhovisi impilo yomphakathi asifuni ukwazi ukuthi kungakanani Umkhuhlane kwakungekho amasonto amabili edlule; bafuna ukwazi ukuthi kungakanani Umkhuhlane kukhona njengamanje. Eqinisweni, kwezinye imithombo eminingi yendabuko idatha social, zikhona izikhala phakathi amagagasi yokuqoqa ulwazi kanye lags nokubika. Iningi big imithombo idatha Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kukhona njalo-on (Isigaba 2.3.1.2).
Ngakho-ke, uJeremy Ginsberg kanye nozakwabo (2009) bezama ukubikezela CDC idatha umkhuhlane kusuka idatha yosesho lwe-Google. Lena isibonelo 'ukubikezela samanje "ngoba abacwaningi babezama ukukala kungakanani umkhuhlane kukhona manje ukubikezela idatha esizayo kusukela CDC, idatha ikusasa ukuthi is yokulinganisa samanje. Ukusebenzisa umshini ofunda izinto, athungatha ngokusebenzisa amagama osesho ezahlukene million 50 ukuze ubone okuyizinto predictive iningi CDC idatha umkhuhlane. Ekugcineni, bathola iqoqo imibuzo 45 ezahlukene Kwakubonakala sengathi predictive kakhulu, futhi imiphumela yaba emihle ngempela: bengasebenzisa idatha search ukubikezela idatha CDC. Esekelwe ngokwengxenye kule iphepha, esanyatheliswa ngo Nature,-Google Flu Amathrendi waba yimpumelelo indaba wakuphindaphinda ngamandla idatha big.
Kukhona nezixwayiso ezimbili ezibalulekile kulokhu okubonakala kuyimpumelelo, noqondayo lezi nezixwayiso kuzokusiza ahlolisise abuye wenze ukubikezela kanye nowcasting. Okokuqala, ukusebenza kwe-Google Flu Amathrendi empeleni ngeke kangcono kakhulu kunokuba umfuziselo esilula ilinganisela nenani umkhuhlane esekelwe a extrapolation lwento kusukela izilinganiso ezimbili zamuva iningi umkhuhlane yokudlanga (Goel et al. 2010) . Futhi, ngenxa ngezikhathi Google Flu Amathrendi empeleni embi edlula lena indlela elula (Lazer et al. 2014) . Ngamanye amazwi,-Google Flu Amathrendi nazo zonke idatha yayo, umshini ofunda izinto, kanye ne-computing enamandla akazange ephawulekayo ziphumelela kangcono elula futhi kulula ukuyiqonda heuristic. Lokhu kusikisela ukuthi lapho ehlolisisa yimuphi umhlahlo noma nowcast kubalulekile ukuqhathanisa a kwegciwane.
Owesibili caveat ebalulekile mayelana ne-Google Flu Amathrendi wukuthi ikhono layo ukubikezela CDC idatha umkhuhlane ngangenwa ukuhluleka yesikhathi esifushane neyezinto yesikhathi eside ukubola kungena ngenxa bayasithola nolokukhungathekisa algorithmic. Ngokwesibonelo, ngesikhathi 2009 Swine Flu kokugqashuka Google Flu Amathrendi ephawulekayo phezu-kulinganiselwa lemali Umkhuhlane, mhlawumbe ngenxa yokuthi abantu ziyashintsha search zabo ukuziphatha eziphendula ukwesaba yonke sikamashayabhuqe global (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . Ngaphezu kwalezi zinkinga short-term, ukusebenza kancane kancane sesibolile ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ukuhlonza Izizathu zalokhu ukubola kungena okwesikhathi eside kunzima ngoba ubuchule yokusesha ye-Google nokuphathelene, kodwa kubonakala sengathi ngo-2011 Google wenza izinguquko ongacabanga namagama osesho ahlobene lapho abantu besesha izimpawu like "imfiva" futhi "nokukhwehlela" (liphinde kubonakale ukuthi lesi sici akasasebenzi). Ukungeza lesi sici kuyinto ngokuphelele kufanelekile ukwenza uma ukuqhuba ibhizinisi search engine, futhi wawusiza odala usesho oluhlobene zezempilo. Lena kwaba yimpumelelo ibhizinisi, kodwa yabangela Google Flu Amathrendi ku phezu-balinganisela umkhuhlane yokudlanga (Lazer et al. 2014) .
Ngenhlanhla, lezi zinkinga nge-Google Flu Amathrendi kukhona fixable. Eqinisweni, usebenzisa izindlela ngokucophelela, Lazer et al. (2014) kanye Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) bakwazi ukuthola imiphumela engcono. Going phambili, ngilindele ukuthi izifundo nowcasting ukuthi sihlanganise idatha big nge umcwaningi baqoqa idatha-ezihambisana Duchamp-style Readymades ne Michaelangelo-style Custommades-kuyokusiza ukwazi abenzi inqubomgomo ukukhiqiza izilinganiso ngokushesha futhi enembile nakakhulu ngesikhathi samanje izibikezelo esizayo.
