3.4.2 Non-okungenzeka amasampula: sisindvo
With amasampula non-okungenzeka, izinsimbi kungakuqinisa ukuhlehlisa Ukuhlanekezelwa okubangelwa bazitshela izibonelo zalokho inqubo.
Ngendlela efanayo ukuthi abacwaningi isisindo izimpendulo ezivela amasampula ematfuba, abakwazi futhi isisindo izimpendulo ezivela amasampula non-ematfuba. Ngokwesibonelo, njengoba elinye ithuba CPS, ake sithi ezibekwe banner izikhangiso on izinkulungwane zamawebhusayithi ukuthi zibe ziqasha ababambe iqhaza ucwaningo ukulinganisa izinga lokungasebenzi. Ngokwemvelo, ubungeke sokungabaza ukuthi asho okulula isampula yakho bekuyoba isilinganiso esihle izinga lokungasebenzi. zokungabaza ilula ngoba ucabanga ukuthi abanye abantu aba maningi amathuba okuba ukuqedela inhlolovo kunezinye. Ngokwesibonelo, abantu abangamkhonzi ukuchitha isikhathi esiningi kuwebhu mancane amathuba ukuqedela inhlolovo yakho.
Njengoba sibonile kule ngxenye yokugcina Nokho, uma sazi ukuthi isampula sikhethwe-njengoba senza kanjalo ematfuba amasampula-ke singaba ukuhlehlisa Ukuhlanekezelwa okubangelwa inqubo izibonelo zalokho. Ngeshwa, lapho esebenza amasampula non-okungenzeka, asazi ukuthi isampula sikhethwe. Kodwa, singakwazi ukucabanga mayelana nenqubo izibonelo zalokho abese zisebenza nekulinganiswa ngendlela efanayo. Uma lezi ezizathwini ziyiqiniso, khona-ke sisindvo uyolungisa ukuhlanekezela okubangelwa inqubo izibonelo zalokho.
Ngokwesibonelo, ake sithi eziphendula banner izikhangiso zakho, wena waqoqa 100,000 wabaphenduli. Nokho, ningakholwa ukuthi lezi wabaphenduli 100,000 kukhona isampula elula okungahleliwe abadala baseMelika. Eqinisweni, uma uqhathanisa wabaphenduli yakho ukuze labantu US, uthola ukuthi abantu abavela ezinye izifunda (isib, New York) kukhona abantu phezu-amelwe nokuthi kusukela ezinye izifunda (isib, Alaska) bangaphansi-abamelelwa. Ngakho, lizinga lalabamnyama labangasebenti isampula yakho kungenzeka kube balinganisela ezimbi izinga lokungasebenzi kwabantu target.
Enye indlela ukuhlehlisa kwencazelo ezenzeka inqubo ukusampula ukwabela izisindo kumuntu ngamunye; izisindo ephansi abantu abavela ezifundazweni ukuthi basuke phezu-amelwe isampula (isib, New York) nezisindo ephakeme abantu abavela ezifundazweni ukuthi basuke ngaphansi-amelwe isampula (isib, Alaska). Ngini ngokuqondile, nesisindo ummangalelwa ngamunye lihlobene yokudlanga zabo isampula isihlobo sakho ukuze yokudlanga zabo labantu US. Le nqubo ibizwa ngokuthi esabiweko post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu, futhi umqondo wokuhlaziya okufanele kukukhumbuza isibonelo eSigabeni 3.4.1 lapho wabaphenduli kusukela Rhode Island mikhandlu ngaphansi kuka wabaphenduli waseCalifornia. Post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu kudinga ukuthi ulwazi olwanele ukubeka wabaphenduli yakho zibe ngamaqoqo bese ukwazi inani labantu target ecenjini ngalinye.
Nakuba Sisindvo semikhakha isampula ematfuba kanye isampula non-ematfuba yiwona izibalo efanayo (bheka isithasiselo saleli Bhayibheli lobuchwepheshe), basebenza kahle ezimweni ezahlukene. Uma umcwaningi has a ephelele Amathuba isampula (ie, hhayi phutha Ukusabalala futhi akukho non-impendulo), khona-ke silinganiso iyoveza tilinganiso engachemile for bonke zimfanelo zonke izimo. Lokhu isiqinisekiso esinamandla theory Yingakho ayesekela amasampula ematfuba uwathole zikhanga kangaka. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, non-ematfuba amasampula silinganiso kuyomane ukukhiqiza tilinganiso engachemile for wonke nalezo zici ngokuthi uma propensities impendulo wonke umuntu eqenjini ngalinye okufanayo. Ngamanye amazwi, ecabanga isibonelo sethu, besebenzisa post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu uyoveza tilinganiso engachemile uma wonke umuntu eNew York has ematfuba efanayo iqhaza nabo bonke abakulo Alaska has ematfuba efanayo iqhaza nokunye. Lokhu kucatshangwa ubizwa ngokuthi eyohlobo-Ukusabela-propensities-ngaphakathi-amaqembu ukucabangela, futhi udlala indima ebalulekile yokwazi ukuthi post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu uzosebenza kahle amasampula non-ematfuba.
Ngeshwa, ngo isibonelo sethu, the eyohlobo-Ukusabela-propensities-ngaphakathi namaqembu ukucabangela Kubonakala kungenakwenzeka ukuthi ingaba yiqiniso. Okungukuthi, kubonakala sengathi mancane amathuba okuthi wonk 'umuntu Alaska has ematfuba efanayo yokuba inhlolovo yakho. Kodwa, kukhona amaphuzu amathathu aqakathekileko ukuhlale ukhumbula mayelana post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu, konke okuyizinto ezenza kubonakale othembisayo more.
Okokuqala, eyohlobo-Ukusabela-propensities-ngaphakathi namaqembu ukucabangela iba ecace kakhudlwana njengoba amaqembu amaningi ukunyuselwa. Futhi, abacwaningi azivinjelwe amaqembu nje esekelwe isici eyodwa engokoqobo. Ngokwesibonelo, sasikwazi ukudala amaqembu okusekelwe isimo, yobudala, ubulili, kanye nezinga lemfundo. Kubonakala ecace kakhudlwana ukuthi kukhona eyohlobo impendulo propensities ngaphakathi iqembu 18-29, abaphothule female, college abahlala Alaska kuka ngaphakathi iqembu bonke abantu abahlala e-Alaska. Ngakho, njengoba isibalo amaqembu esetshenziselwa post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu ukwanda ezicatshangwayo adingekayo ukuze asekele babe enengqondo kakhudlwana. Njengoba sazi leli qiniso, kubonakala sengathi i-abacwaningi ongafuna ukudala lenqwaba amaqembu for post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu. Kodwa, njengoba isibalo amaqembu ukunyuselwa, abacwaningi iyangena a ezahlukene inkinga: idatha sparsity. Uma kukhona nje inamba encane yabantu eqenjini ngalinye, khona-ke nezilinganiso kuyoba engaqinisekile kakhudlwana, futhi esimweni ngokwedlulele lapho kukhona iqembu ongenawo Kubantu abaphendula, abangamaphesenti ke post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu ephula ngokuphelele phansi. Kunezindlela ezimbili baphumise kule kwaba nokunghanghisana nokungapheleli esakuzuza phakathi mbono ka homogeneous- Ukusabela-propensity-ngaphakathi namaqembu ukucabangela futhi sikhulu kakhulu isidingo kunengqondo isampula osayizi ecenjini ngalinye. Enye indlela esingayisebenzisa iwukubonisa bathuthele umfuziselo ezingcono ezibalo ukubala izinsimbi kanye nezinye ukuqoqa elikhudlwana, isampula wehlukile, esiza ukuqinisekisa kunengqondo isampula osayizi ecenjini ngalinye. Futhi, ngezinye izikhathi abacwaningi ukukwenza kokubili, njengoba ngizobuya ukuchaza ngokuningiliziwe ngezansi.
Ukucabangela yesibili lapho esebenza post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu kusukela amasampula non-Kungenzeka ukuthi eyohlobo-Ukusabela-propensity-ngaphakathi namaqembu ukucabangela isivele enza lapho ehlaziya amasampula ematfuba. Isizathu ukuthi le ukucabangela oludingekayo ukuze amasampula ematfuba practice wukuthi amasampula ematfuba babe non-bangasabela, futhi indlela esivame kakhulu kokucabangela non-abasabeli post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu njengoba kuchazwe ngenhla. Yiqiniso, ngenxa nje yokuthi abacwaningi abaningi nokucabanga alisho ukuthi nawe kufanele sikwenze. Kodwa, kusho ukuthi lapho eqhathanisa amasampula non-okungenzeka amasampula ematfuba in umkhuba, kumelwe sihlale sikhumbula njalo ukuthi zombili esithembele ekucabangeleni nolwazi asizayo ukuze akhiqize tilinganiso. In izilungiselelo namaqiniso kunazo, ayikho nje ndlela ukucabangela-free nikhuluma.
Ekugcineni, uma obakhathalelayo Abanye balinganisela ikakhulu-esibonelweni ukutlhogeka kwemisebenzi yethu izinga-ke udinga usesimweni ntekenteke eyohlobo-Ukusabela-propensity-ngaphakathi namaqembu kucatshangwa. Ngokucacile, awudingi ukuba singaphethi ngokuthi wonke umuntu ngendlela efanayo impendulo propensity, wena nje kudingeka ukuba singaphethi ngokuthi akukho ukuhlanganisa emkhatsini impendulo propensity and labangasebenzi liphezulu, izinhlelo ngaphakathi eqenjini ngalinye. Yiqiniso, ngisho lesi simo esibuthakathaka kakhudlwana kayiyikumyekela kwezinye izimo. Ngokwesibonelo, ake ucabange kulinganiswa inani labantu baseMelika ukuthi umsebenzi wokuzithandela. Uma abantu abenza umsebenzi wokuzithandela, bavamile ukuba uyavuma ukuthi lapho kuhlolwa, khona-ke abacwaningi kuthanda ehlelekile phezu-balinganisela lemali wokuzithandela, ngisho noma benza post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu ukulungisa okuthile, umphumela oluye lwaboniswa empirically by Abraham, Helms, and Presser (2009) .
Njengoba ngike ngasho ekuqaleni, amasampula non-okungenzeka zibhekwa abakwethembi okukhulu ososayensi social, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yendima yabo ezinye ukwehluleka amahloni kakhulu ezinsukwini zakuqala yocwaningo inhlolovo. Isibonelo esicacile kangakanani sesihambe namasampula non-Kungenzeka ucwaningo of Wei Wang, uDavide Rothschild, Sharad Goel, no-Andreya Gelman ukuthi ngokunembile athole umphumela we-2012 US yokhetho esebenzisa isampula non-ematfuba abasebenzisi American Xbox -a isampula enqumayo non-okungahleliwe baseMelika (Wang et al. 2015) . Abacwaningi waqoqa wabaphenduli kusukela Xbox system udlala, futhi njengoba ungase ulindele, isampula Xbox angahluleli ngendlela eqondile owesilisa angahluleli ngendlela eqondile young: 18 - 29 ngonyaka abaneminyaka bakha 19% labavoti kodwa 65% of the Xbox isampula amadoda akha 47% labavoti 93% of the Xbox isampula (Figure 3.4). Ngenxa yalezi ukucwasana eqinile emayelana, idatha eluhlaza Xbox kwaba inkomba abampofu uyabuya ukhetho. Sabikezela ukunqoba strong for Mitt Romney phezu Barack Obama. Nalapha futhi, lesi esinye isibonelo izingozi, engalungisiwe non-Amathuba amasampula eluhlaza futhi okusikhumbuza Literary Digest fiasco.
Figure 3.4: Isayensi of abaphendula Wang et al. (2015) . Ngenxa yokuthi abantu okwaxoxwa nabo ukubuthwa Xbox, kade maningi amathuba okuba babe abasha futhi maningi amathuba okuba kube ngeyeduna, isihlobo abavoti 2012 okhethweni.
Nokho, Wang nozakwabo babelazi lezi zinkinga futhi wazama ukuba isisindo abaphendula alungise for inqubo izibonelo zalokho. Ikakhulu, ayesebenzisa ifomu eyindida ngaphezulu post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu nganitshela. Kuwufanele nokufunda okwengeziwe kancane mayelana nendlela yabo ngoba kuzenza umuzwa mayelana post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu, futhi inguqulo ethile Wang nozakwabo esetshenziswa ingenye izindlela okuthakazelisayo kunazo non-ematfuba amasampula sisindvo.
In Isibonelo sethu lelula lemayelana kulinganiswa lokuntuleka kwemisebenzi Section 3.4.1, thina ihlukaniswe labantu babe ngamaqembu okusekelwe isimo nendawo ababehlala kuyo. Ngokuphambene, Wang nozakwabo ihlukaniswe labantu ku tibe ngemacembu 176.256 lichazwa nge: nobulili (2 izigaba), uhlanga (4 izigaba), age (4 izigaba), imfundo (4 izigaba), isimo (51 izigaba), ID party (3 izigaba), imibono yabantu (3 izigaba) kanye nokuvota 2008 (3 izigaba). With amaqembu, abacwaningi wayethemba ukuthi ngokuya cishe ukuthi ngaphakathi eqenjini ngalinye, impendulo propensity kwaba uncorrelated shoka Obama. Okulandelayo, kunokuba zakhela ngabanye-level izisindo, njengoba senzile e isibonelo sethu, Wang nozakwabo wasebenzisa imodeli eyinkimbinkimbi ukulinganisa inani labantu eqenjini ngalinye ukuthi uzovotela Obama. Ekugcineni, bahlanganisa lezi tilinganiso iqembu ukwesekwa kanye nobukhulu eyaziwayo iqembu ngalinye ukuze ukhiqize ezingeni okucatshangelwa jikelele we support. Ngamanye amazwi, bacanda labantu zibe amaqembu ehlukene, kulinganiselwa eyeseka Obama ecenjini ngalinye, bese wathatha kwesamba nezilinganiso qembu ukukhiqiza ukulinganisa jikelele.
Ngakho, inselele enkulu endleleni yabo iwukuba ukulinganisa support for Obama in ngamunye la maqembu 176.256. Nakuba panel yabo yayihlanganisa 345.858 ababambiqhaza esiyingqayizivele, inombolo enkulu ngezindinganiso zokuvota okhethweni, kwakukhona emaqenjini amaningi okuyiwona Wang nozakwabo kwadingeka cishe awekho wabaphenduli. Ngakho-ke, ukulinganisa support ecenjini ngalinye ayesebenzisa entsha yokuzenza ebizwa ngokuthi ukuhlehla lokuhweba nge post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu, okuyinto abacwaningi ngothando ukubiza uMnu P. Ngokuyisisekelo, ukulinganisa eyeseka Obama ngaphakathi eqenjini elithile, uMnu P. amachibi ulwazi kusuka eziningi esihlobene amaqembu. Ngokwesibonelo, cabanga ukubhekana nenselelo yokwenza kulinganiswa eyeseka Obama phakathi iSpanishi female, eziphakathi kweminyaka 18-29 ubudala, abangamalungu college abaphothule, ababhalise Democrats, ngubani self-ukukhomba njengoba esesilinganisweni futhi abavowudele Obama 2008. Lokhu iqembu kakhulu, eqondile, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi kukhona muntu Isampula zici. Ngakho-ke, ukuze lezo zilinganiso ngaleli qembu, uMnu P. amachibi ndawonye ilinganisela esuka kubantu ngamaqembu ayefana kakhulu.
Ukusebenzisa lelisu analysis, Wang nozakwabo sakwazi ukusebenzisa Xbox non-okungenzeka isampula eduze kakhulu ukulinganisa ukwesekwa jikelele ukuthi Obama wathola ngo-2012 okhethweni (Figure 3.5). Empeleni izilinganiso zabo babeyizinkulungwane esinembile ngaphezu aggregate imibono yomphakathi ngezinhloko. Ngakho, kuleli cala, sisindvo-ikakhulukazi uMnu P.-kubonakala umsebenzi omuhle Oqondisa ukucwasana idatha non-ematfuba; ukucwasana ebonakalayo uma ubheka nezilinganiso kusukela engalungisiwe idatha Xbox.
Figure 3.5: Isilinganiso kusukela Wang et al. (2015) . Engalungisiwe Xbox isampula kukhiqizwa tilinganiso enganembile. Kodwa, i-kwesamba Xbox isampula kukhiqizwa tilinganiso ezazingaphansi olunembile ezingaphezu kuka-avareji yamaphesende ematfuba-based ngocingo survey.
Kunezifundo ezimbili eziyinhloko ezisencwadini yokutadisha of Wang nozakwabo. Okokuqala, non-ematfuba amasampula engalungisiwe kungaholela tilinganiso okubi; lena isifundo Abacwaningi abaningi baye bathola lithethwa. Nokho, isifundo sesibili siwukuthi amasampula non-okungenzeka, uma isisindo kahle, empeleni khiqiza tilinganiso impela okuhle. Empeleni, izilinganiso zabo babeyizinkulungwane olunembile eziningi ngaphezu kwalezo ezibonwa ezakhishwa pollster.com, i aggregation more bendabuko ngezinhloko ukhetho.
Ekugcineni, kukhona ukulinganiselwa ezibalulekile lokho esingakufunda kulolucwaningo ethile. Just ngoba post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu wasebenza kahle kule ndaba, asikho isiqinisekiso sokuthi kuyoba kahle kwezinye izimo. Empeleni, ukhetho mhlawumbe omunye izilungiselelo elula ngoba pollsters sekuyisikhathi utadisha Ukhetho cishe iminyaka engu-100, kukhona impendulo avamile (singabona ozitholela ukhetho), kanye party ukuhlonza nezici indaba ekhanga abantu babo abanazo izibikezelo yokuvota. Kuleli qophelo, sintula theory okuqinile kanye nesipiliyoni enokwehla ukwazi lapho kulungiswa okuthile Sisindvo semikhakha amasampula non-okungenzeka uyoveza tilinganiso ngokwanele olunembile. Nokho, into eyodwa icacile, uma bephoqeleka ukuba basebenze namasampula non-okungenzeka, khona-ke isizathu esizwakalayo sokukholelwa ukuthi tilinganiso olungisiwe kuyoba ngcono kunezinga elilinganiselwa non-kushintshwe.
