3.3.1 Imibono
Imibono imayelana Ukusebenzisa amasu okuqondisisa: kusuka wabaphenduli yakho lelitshe labantu bakho.
Ukuze siqonde uhlobo amaphutha engenzeka uma Kucombela kusukela abaphendula labantu ezinkudlwana, ake sicabangele lo Literary Digest utshani poll ukuthi bezama ukubikezela umphumela we-1936 US Presidential ukhetho. Nakuba kwaba iminyaka engaphezu kwengu-75 edlule, lesi debacle usenayo isifundo esibalulekile ukuze afundise ucwaningo iPondering Panda.
Literary Digest kwaba kamagazini odumile jikelele-interest, futhi kusukela ngo-1920 baqala egijima ngezinhloko utshani kuzomele babikezele imiphumela Presidential Elections. Ukuze wenze lezi zibikezelo ayefaka amavoti eziningi zabantu, bese umane izibalo eziqondile up amavoti ukuthi babebuyela; Literary Digest ngeqholo libike ukuthi ivoti ezaluthola babengezona "isisindo, kushintshwe, noma ngokuhunyushwa." Le nqubo wabikezela ngokunembile winner of the ukhetho ngo-1920, 1924, 1928 no 1932. ngo-1936, phakathi Okukhulu Kwezomnotho, Literary Digest zathumela amavoti abantu 10 million, esimagama aso predominately wafika evela telucingo kanye namarekhodi ukubhaliswa ngezimoto. Nakhu ukuthi echazwa indlela yokwenza kwabo:
"THE Digest sika smooth-egijima mshini uhamba ngokunemba onejubane nakho iminyaka engamashumi amathathu 'ukuze kuncishiswe ukuqagela amaqiniso kanzima. . . .Lokhu Ngesonto 500 izibaya emibi out kuka ingxenye yesine ka a amakheli million ngosuku. Nsuku zonke, ekamelweni elikhulu eliphezulu ngenhla imoto-ribboned Fourth Avenue, eNew York, izisebenzi 400 deftly sehla a million izingcezu ephrintiwe udaba-ngokwanele ukuze bazivulele izikhubekiso-singene emzini amane umboza esibhekiswe [sic]. Ihora ngalinye, ngo siqu Post Office Substation THE Digest'S, ezintathu kushayana imishini zokuposa metering ababekwa uphawu sanyathela oblongs ezimhlophe; abanamakhono abasebenzi leposi ziphenywe wabayisa egcwele mailsacks; yemikhumbi Digest amaloli washesha ukuba baveze mail-izitimela. . . Ngesonto elizayo, izimpendulo zokuqala kusukela kulezi million eziyishumi uzoqala igagasi ozayo amavoti wawubona, ukuze kube kathathu zihlolwe, okuqinisekiswe,-kahlanu cross-bahlukanisa bezingaphansi. Lapho lesi sibalo sokugcina totted futhi bahlola, uma kokwake kuyinto umbandela, leli zwe ngeke bazi ngaphakathi encane 1 amaphesenti ivoti langempela ethandwa of amane million [abavoti]. "(August 22, 1936)
fetishization I Digest ka-size kweso liyabonakala kunoma yimuphi "big idatha" umcwaningi namuhla. Of asemthethweni 10 million basakaza, an amazing 2.4 million amavoti babebuyela-lokho kalukhuni izikhathi 1,000 beyizidlakela kunamanye ngezinhloko ezombusazwe yesimanje. Kulezi wabaphenduli 2.4 million sinqumo wawucacile: Literary Digest wabikezela ukuthi inselele Alf Landon kwakuthiwa uBhali no Asherah anqobe okulesi Franklin Roosevelt. Kodwa, eqinisweni, kwenzeka okuphambene ngqo. Roosevelt tshoda Landon in kumhambela. Kwakungenzeka kanjani ukuba Literary Digest uhambe okungalungile idatha kangaka? Ukuqonda kwethu zanamuhla of izibonelo zalokho wenza amaphutha amaningi Literary Digest esicacile kusisiza sigweme ukwenza amaphutha efanayo esikhathini esizayo.
Ukucabanga ngokukhanyayo izibonelo zalokho kudinga ukuba sicabangele amaqembu amane ahlukene abantu (Figure 3.1). Iqembu lokuqala labantu labantu target; leli yilona qembu ukuthi ucwaningo eyichaza ngokuthi labantu nesithakazelo. Endabeni Literary Digest labantu target kwaba kwabavoti 1936 wokhetho lukamongameli. Ngemva kokunquma on a labantu target, umcwaningi elilandelayo kudingeka ukuthuthukisa uhlu lwabantu engasetshenziswa for izibonelo zalokho. Lolu hlu ubizwa ngokuthi luhlaka izibonelo zalokho kanye labantu on luhlaka izibonelo zalokho ubizwa ngokuthi labantu ifremu. Endabeni Literary Digest labantu luhlaka kwaba abantu abayi-10 million abamagama kwafika predominately kusuka telucingo kanye namarekhodi ukubhaliswa ngezimoto. Kungakuhle labantu kwelitshe kanye labantu luhlaka bekuyoba nse, kodwa ngo umkhuba lokhu ngokuvamile akunjalo. Umehluko phakathi labantu target futhi uzimele labantu zibizwa ngokuthi iphutha Ukusabalala. Iphutha Ukuhlanganisa akusho, ngokwakhona kuqinisekwe izinkinga. Kodwa, uma abantu labantu ifremu kukhona ehlelekile bahluke hhayi labantu ifremu kuyoba khona Ukusabalala noma ukuchema kuzo. Iphutha Ukuhlanganisa wayengowokuqala amaphutha enkulu Literary Digest poll. Babefuna ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana abavoti-ukuthi kwaba yabo target abasemhlabeni-kodwa icanjwe luhlaka izibonelo zalokho predominately kusuka telucingo kanye ngezimoto wokuBhaliswa, imithombo phezu-amelwe acebile Americans ababe maningi amathuba okuba ukusekela Alf Landon (khumbula ukuthi zombili lezi technologies, okuyizinto ezivamile namuhla, baba ngamashumi empeleni esasisesisha ngesikhathi nokuthi US kwaba phakathi Okukhulu Kwezomnotho).
Umfanekiso 3.1: Imibono amaphutha.
Ngemva belinganisa labantu luhlaka, isinyathelo esilandelayo sokuba umcwaningi ukukhetha labantu isampula; Yilezi abantu ukuthi umcwaningi izozama interview. Uma isampula onezici ezahlukene ukwedlula labantu ifremu, khona-ke singazuza ukwethula iphutha izibonelo zalokho. Lona uhlobo iphutha quantified in ohlangothini yesiphambeko ngokuvamile obuhambisana tilinganiso. Endabeni le Temibhalo Digest fiasco, empeleni kwakunganalapha isampula; azama ukuxhumana wonke umuntu emphakathini ifremu. Nakuba kwakungekho iphutha izibonelo zalokho, kwakukhona kusobala namanje iphutha. Lokhu icacisa ukuthi eziseceleni amaphutha zivame libike nge ezakhishwa survey kwangasese kuvame ukugcinwa njengemfihlo misleadingly encane; abazi zihlanganisa zonke izimbangela iphutha.
Ekugcineni, umcwaningi imizamo interview wonke umuntu emphakathini isampula. Labo bantu ukuthi Kuxoxwa ngempumelelo zibizwa ngokuthi wabaphenduli. Okungcono kakhulu, labantu isampula abaphendula bekuyoba nse, kodwa empeleni kukhona non-impendulo. Ngamanye amazwi, abantu abenza akhethiwe ku isampula ayenqaba ukuhlanganyela. Uma abantu abazamukelayo azisafani abangasamukeli, khona-ke kungaba khona non-impendulo noma ukuchema kuzo. Non-Ukusabela noma ukuchema kuzo kwaba inkinga yesibili main ne Literary Digest poll. 24% kuphela abantu abathola ngephepha basabela, futhi kwathi abantu abaxhasa Landon ayemaningi amathuba okuba basabele.
Beyond nje isibonelo zokwethula imibono ukumelwa, le nhlolo-vo Literary Digest kuyinto Emfanekisweni eziphindaphindwa, usiqaphelise abacwaningi mayelana nengozi yokuzihlanganisa izibonelo zalokho ozenzekelayo. Ngeshwa, ngicabanga ukuthi lesi sifundo ukuthi abantu abaningi bafinyelela kule ndaba nguye okungalungile. I zokuziphatha evamile indaba wukuthi abacwaningi abangeke bakwazi ukufunda utho kusukela amasampula non-okungenzeka (ie, amasampula ngaphandle luma ngaphakathi imithetho okungenzeka-based yokukhetha abahlanganyeli). Kodwa, njengoba Ngizokukhombisa kamuva kulesi sahluko, lokho okungahambi kahle. Kunalokho, ngicabanga kukhona ngempela ukuziphatha nokuthembela ezimbili zale ndaba; Uma kuziwa endabeni yokuziphatha ukuthi kukhona Kunjalo namuhla njengoba babenjalo 1936. Okokuqala, inani elikhulu idatha ngobudlabha eqoqwe ngeke kuqinisekise ukulinganisa omuhle. Okwesibili, abacwaningi kudingeka ukuba alandise kanjani idatha yabo kwaba eqoqwe ngenkathi benza ezakhishwa it. Ngamanye amazwi, ngoba inqubo ukuqoqwa idatha ku Literary Digest poll kwaba ehlelekile angahluleli ngendlela eqondile ngabantu abathile Kubantu abaphendula, abacwaningi kudingeka usebenzise more complex ukulinganisa inqubo ukuthi izinsimbi abanye wabaphenduli kakhudlwana kunamanye. Kamuva kulesi sahluko, Ngizokukhombisa eyodwa silinganiso enjalo inqubo-post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu-ukuthi kungakwenza ukwazi lezo zilinganiso kangcono namasampula non-ematfuba.
