3.6.1 Amplified becela
Ukuxhuma inhlolovo yakho ukuze iminonjana digital lungafana sicela ukuba wonke umuntu imibuzo yakho ngaso sonke isikhathi.
Ukubuza ngokuvamile uyangena izigaba ezimbili eziyinhloko: isampula ukuhlola kanye ukubalwa. survey Sample, lapho ufinyelela inombolo encane yabantu, kungaba nezimo, okufika ngesikhathi, futhi kuqhathaniswa ezishibhile. Nokho, ukuhlola isampula, ngoba zisekelwe isampula, zivame kulinganiselwe nesinqumo sabo; nge ucwaningo, ngokuvamile kunzima ukuba basho lezo zilinganiso mayelana izifunda ethize ngokwebalazwe noma amaqembu athile indaba ekhanga abantu babo. Ezisetshenziswayo, ngakolunye, azame interview wonke umuntu emphakathini. Sinenkosi lesinqumo okukhulu, kodwa ngokuvamile eqolo, emincane in focus (they yodwa Ezinye izinhlelo zibandakanya inombolo encane imibuzo), hhayi esifike (zenzeke on a isimiso fixed, ezifana njalo ngemva kweminyaka 10) (Kish 1979) . Manje ake ucabange ukube abacwaningi babengase hlanganisa izici best of isampula ukuhlola kanye ukubalwa; Cabanga ukuthi ngabe kwenzekani abacwaningi ungase ubuze yonke imibuzo ukuze wonke umuntu nsuku zonke.
Ngokusobala, lokhu wezikhathi zonke, ikuyo yonke indawo, njalo-on inhlolovo uhlobo fantasy social science. Kodwa, kubonakala sengathi singaqala zazikuphi lokhu ngokuhlanganisa imibuzo inhlolovo kusuka esibalweni esincane sabantu enokulandelela digital kubantu abaningi. Kepha mina ngibiza lolu hlobo inhlanganisela iyakhula becela. Uma kwenziwa kahle, kwakungase usisize inikeza balinganisela ukuthi kukhona bendawo abangaphezu (izindawo ezincane ngokwebalazwe), luyimbudumbudu more (for amaqembu athile ekhanga abantu babo bonke), futhi ifike ngesikhathi xaxa.
Esinye sezibonelo ezibuza iyakhula livela emsebenzini uJoshuwa Blumenstock, owayefuna ukuqoqa idatha ezazizosiza ukuthuthukiswa Umhlahlandlela emazweni ampofu. Ngini ngokuqondile, Blumenstock wafuna ukudala uhlelo ukukala ingcebo nenhlalakahle ezihlangana ukuphelela wokubalwa kwabantu ne eguquguqukayo kanye nokuvama vo (Blumenstock 2014; Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Empeleni, Sengivele wachaza umsebenzi Blumenstock sika kafushane eSahlukweni 1.
Ukuze uqale, Blumenstock asebenzisana ne ngobukhulu mobile phone umhlinzeki eRwanda. Le nkampani wamnikeza amarekhodi transaction ongaziwa kusukela cishe ngo-1.5 million amakhasimende usibekela ukuziphatha kusukela ngo-2005 futhi 2009. izingodo aqukethe ulwazi mayelana call nombhalo ngamunye umyalezo ezifana isikhathi sokuqala, isikhathi, futhi cishe ukephi nendawo kwendawo ucingo kanye receiver. Ngaphambi siqala ukukhuluma mayelana nezindaba ezibalo, kuyafaneleka ekhomba ukuthi lesi sinyathelo sokuqala kungase kube enye yazo. Njengoba kuchazwe eSahlukweni 2, iningi digital idatha trace kuyinto ezingafinyeleleki abacwaningi. Futhi, izinkampani eziningi kukhona anesizathu ukutshela idatha zabo ngoba iyimfihlo; okungukuthi amakhasimende abo cishe akazange alindele ukuthi amarekhodi abo lizokwabiwa-in bulk-nabacwaningi. Kulokhu, abacwaningi wathatha izinyathelo ngokucophelela ukuze ukungazivezi idatha kanye nomsebenzi wawo sibhekwa ngumuntu third-party (ie, IRB yabo). Kodwa, naphezu kwalezi mizamo, lezi idatha kukhona mhlawumbe namanje Tfola cishe aqukethe ulwazi olubucayi (Mayer, Mutchler, and Mitchell 2016; Landau 2016) . Mina ngizoba buyela emuva kulemibuto umbuzo lisezingeni Isahluko 6.
Khumbula ukuthi Blumenstock wayenesithakazelo ekulinganiseni ingcebo nenhlalakahle. Kodwa, lezi zimfanelo ngokuqondile amarekhodi call. Ngamanye amazwi, laba amarekhodi call aziphelelanga salokhu ucwaningo, esivamile iminonjana digital okwaxoxwa ngalo lapho ngokuningiliziwe eSahlukweni 2. Kodwa, kubonakala kungenakwenzeka ukuthi amarekhodi call cishe abanye ulwazi mayelana nengcebo nenhlalakahle. Ngakho, enye indlela kokubuza umbuzo Blumenstock kungasho: kunendlela ukubikezela ukuthi umuntu ngeke uphendule ucwaningo okusekelwe idatha yabo digital trace? Uma kunjalo, khona-ke ngokubuza abantu abambalwa singa ukuqagela izimpendulo wonke umuntu.
Ukuze ukuhlola lo empirically, Blumenstock kanye nocwaningo nabasizi eKigali Institute of Science and Technology esibizwa isampula engaba yinkulungwane mobile phone amakhasimende. Abacwaningi wachaza imigomo ye-project kuze ababambiqhaza, wacela imvume yabo ukuze kuxhunyaniswe izimpendulo ucwaningo amarekhodi call, wabe esethi siwabuze imibuzo ukukala nomcebo wabo nayo inhlalakahle, njengesithi "Ingabe unalo radio? "nothi" Ingabe unalo ibhayisikili? "(bheka uMdwebo 3.11 for a uhlu lokunye). Bonke abahlanganyeli inhlolovo kwavuzwa ngokwezimali.
Okulandelayo, Blumenstock wasebenzisa inqubo ezimbili-step ezivamile in isayensi idatha: isici engineering ilandelwe yibo yokufunda wokugada. Okokuqala, esinyathelweni sici engineering, ngoba wonke umuntu ukuthi kwaxoxwa, Blumenstock kuguquka amarekhodi call ibe iqoqo izici ngomuntu ngamunye; Ososayensi idatha engase ibizwe ngokuthi zici "izici" futhi ososayensi bezenhlalo ngokuthi "eziguquguqukayo." Ngokwesibonelo, umuntu ngamunye, Blumenstock ibalwa inamba isiyonke izinsuku nomsebenzi, isibalo sabantu abahlukene umuntu uye athintana, lemali imali ichithwa airtime, nokunye. Ngalokujulile, kuhle sici ubunjiniyela sidinga ulwazi sokushona ucwaningo. Ngokwesibonelo, uma kubalulekile ukuba ukuhlukanisa phakathi kwezingcingo ezifuywayo international (singase sikulindele abantu ababiza wamazwe omhlaba ukuba abe acebile), khona-ke lokhu kufanele kwenziwe ngesikhathi isinyathelo isici engineering. Umcwaningi nge nokuqonda okuncane mayelana Rwanda angase angahlanganisi lesi sici, bese ukusebenza izibikezelo imodeli ngeke ahlupheke.
Okulandelayo, in the egadiwe yokufunda isinyathelo, Blumenstock wakha model yezibalo ukubikezela impendulo inhlolovo for umuntu ngamunye okusekelwe izici zawo. Kulokhu, Blumenstock esetshenziswa ukuhlehla logistic 10-fold cross-kuqinisekiswa, kodwa wayengasebenzisa ezihlukahlukene Letinye tindlelanchubo kwezibalo noma umshini yokufunda.
Ngakho sisebenze kahle kangakanani? Was Blumenstock alibikezele izimpendulo ahlolisise kokuphendula imibuzo efana "Ingabe nomsakazo wodwa lo?" Nesithi "Ingabe unalo ibhayisikili?" Usebenzisa izici lisuselwa amarekhodi call? Inhlobo. Ukunemba izibikezelo ayephezu for ezinye izici (Figure 3.11). Kodwa, ngaso sonke isikhathi obaluleke ukuqhathanisa isakhiwo isibikezelo indlela yokulwa okunye elula. Kulokhu, a ehlukile elula kuyinto ukubikezela ukuthi wonke umuntu uyonika impendulo ezivame kakhulu. Ngokwesibonelo, 97.3% libike ukuthi ngizoke ngibe umsakazo ngakho uma Blumenstock wayebikezele ukuthi wonke umuntu ukubika ukufuya umsakazo Kwakuyodingeka ukunemba 97.3%, okuyinto emangalisayo efanayo nokusebenza ngenqubo yakhe lelukhuni (97.6% nokunemba). Ngamanye amazwi, yonke idatha zikanokusho kwezokumodela anda ukunemba kwalesi sibikezelo kusuka 97.3% kuya 97,6%. Nokho, ngoba eminye imibuzo, enjengokuthi "Ingabe unalo ibhayisikili?", Izibikezelo likhuphuke kusuka 54,4% kuya 67,6%. Ezimweni ezivamile, Figure 3.12 imibukiso for ezinye izici Blumenstock ayilithuthukisanga okuningi ngaphezudlwana nje okwenza ukubikezelwa elula kwegciwane, kodwa zibonisa ukuthi phakathi nezinye izici kwakukhona kuwenta ncono ngalokulingene.
Figure 3.11: ukunemba Predictive model kwezibalo abaqeqeshwe amarekhodi call. Imiphumela kuThebula 2 of Blumenstock (2014) .
Figure 3.12: Ukuqhathanisa ukunemba predictive model kwezibalo abaqeqeshwe amarekhodi call okulula lolusisekelo bokubikezela. Amaphuzu kancane jittered ukugwema ukugqagqana; bheka Ithebula 2 of Blumenstock (2014) ukuze uthole amagugu ngqo.
Kuleli qophelo ungase ucabange ukuthi leyo miphumela kancane esidumazayo, kodwa ngemva nje konyaka, Blumenstock kanye ezimbili nozakwabo-Gabriel Cadamuro noRobert On-banyathelisa iphepha Science ne imiphumela kakhulu engcono (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Kwakukhona main izizathu ezimbili technical ngcono: 1) ayesebenzisa izindlela ezingcono (ie, indlela entsha ukuze ufake yobunjiniyela kanye ezingcono umshini imodeli yokufunda) kanye 2) kunokuba izama ukuphetha izimpendulo zemibuzo inhlolovo ngabanye (isib, "Ingabe nomsakazo wodwa lo?"), bazama ukuphetha oluyinhlanganisela ingcebo Inkomba.
Blumenstock kanye nozakwabo yabonisa ukusebenza ndlela yabo ngezindlela ezimbili. Okokuqala, bafumana ukuthi ukuze abantu isampula yabo, babekwazi ukwenza umsebenzi kuhle ukubikezela ngokunokwenzeka umcebo wayo uvela amarekhodi call (Figure 3.14). Okwesibili, naphakade okubaluleke ngokwengeziwe, Blumenstock kanye nozakwabo wabonisa ukuthi inqubo yabo ongaveza eliphezulu izilinganiso ukusatshalaliswa kwendawo ingcebo eRwanda. Ngini ngokuqondile, ayesebenzisa umshini imodeli yabo yokufunda, okwakubekelwa Kuqeqeshwe isampula zabo abantu mayelana 1,000, ukubikezela ingcebo bonke abantu abayizigidi ezingu-1,5 ngo-amarekhodi call. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ne idatha ye-geospatial linamathele ngedatha yerekhodi (sikhumbule ukuthi idatha yerekhodi kuhlanganisa indawo eseduze ne-cell tower ikholi ngayinye), abacwaningi sakwazi ukulinganisa indawo silinganisiwe sokuhlala lomuntu ngamunye. Ukubeka lezi tilinganiso ezimbili ndawonye, ocwaningo ukulinganisa ukusatshalaliswa kwendawo isikhokhelo ingcebo granularity esihle ngokwedlulele ngekwendzawo. Ngokwesibonelo, babekwazi ukulinganisa ingcebo isilinganiso emkhakheni ngamunye 2148 amangqamuzana laseRwanda (kwesincane kunazo zonke unit zokuphatha izwe). Lezi Kubikezelwa ingcebo amagugu ngamashumi luyimbudumbudu ngakho kwakunzima ukuhlola. Ngakho, abacwaningi uquqaba imiphumela wazo ukuze zikhiqize tilinganiso umcebo avareji bezifunda laseRwanda 30. Lezi tilinganiso esifundeni-level babengabafuni ezihlobene ezakhishwa legolide inhlolovo wendabuko standard, iRwandan lokubalwa kwabantu kanye Health Survey (Figure 3.14). Nakuba ezakhishwa imithombo emibili ayefana, nezilinganiso kusukela Blumenstock kanye nozakwabo ayesezohlubuka 50 eshibhile izikhathi futhi izikhathi 10 ngokushesha (uma izindleko kubalwa izindleko variable). Lokhu kwehla amadlingozi izindleko kusho ukuthi kunokuba ukugijima njalo iminyaka-embalwa indinganiso for lokubalwa kwabantu kanye Health Surveys-hybrid inhlolovo ezincane kuhlangene big idatha trace digital babengase ukugijima njalo ngenyanga.
Figure 3.13: wokuhlelwa kwendikimba Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . idatha Call kusuka inkampani yocingo sashintshwa ukuba matrix nge umugqa owodwa umuntu ngamunye kanye nalowo kwekholomu isici ngasinye (ie, variable). Okulandelayo, abacwaningi wakha model wokugada yokufunda ukubikezela izimpendulo inhlolovo kumuntu ngesici matrix. Bese, imodeli ogadiwe yokufunda kwakusetshenziswa ukuba sithi lo izimpendulo inhlolovo for wonke umuntu. Empeleni, abacwaningi wasebenzisa indlela abantu abangaba yizinkulungwane ezingu omunye ukuba sithi okuhle kwesizwe abangaba yisigidi. Futhi, abacwaningi kulinganiselwa indawo silinganisiwe yokuhlala bonke abantu abayizigidi ezingu-1,5 esekelwe izindawo izingcingo zabo. Lapho lezi tilinganiso ezimbili yahlanganiswa-the ingcebo kulinganiselwa nendawo elilinganisiwe sokuhlala-imiphumela zazifana tilinganiso kusukela lwenhlalo yabantu and Health Survey, inhlolo-vo eyenziwa wendabuko ngegolide-standard (Figure 3.14).
Figure 3.14: Ezenye kusuka Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Ngesikhathi ngabanye-level, abacwaningi Sakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi esizwakalako at nokubikezela umcebo lothile kumarekhodi abo call. Nezilinganiso esifundeni-level ingcebo-ayesekelwe ngabanye-level izilinganiso ingcebo kanye nendawo yokuhlala, imiphumela ifana imiphumela kusukela lwenhlalo yabantu and Health Survey, inhlolo-vo eyenziwa wendabuko ngegolide-standard.
Ekuphetheni, Blumenstock sika Amplified becela ndlela kuhlangene data inhlolovo nge idatha trace sedijithali ukukhiqiza tilinganiso engaqhathaniswa ngegolide-standard inhlolovo tilinganiso. Lesi sibonelo ikakhulukazi icacisa ezinye ukuhweba-offs phakathi ezibuza iyakhula kanye nezindlela inhlolovo zendabuko. Okokuqala, i-Amplified ngibuza tilinganiso yayifike ngesikhathi nangesinye ngaphezulu, kakhulu eshibhile, futhi granular more. Kodwa, ngakolunye uhlangothi, ngalesi sikhathi, akukho isisekelo esinamandla theory lolu hlobo ezibuza iyakhula. Ukuthi is, lokhu kuyisibonelo esisodwa alibonisi uma uzosebenza futhi uma ngeke. Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Amplified ezibuza ndlela akusho okwamanje ube izindlela ezilungile uningilize ukungaqiniseki azungeze tilinganiso yayo. Nokho, ukubuza iyakhula likwazi ukuxhumana okujulile izici ezintathu ezinkulu izibalo-model-based post-babhekane nezinga elikhulu (Little 1993) , imputation (Rubin 2004) , kanye nezincane-endaweni ukulinganisa (Rao and Molina 2015) -futhi ukuze Ngilindele ukuthi inqubekela phambili kuthanda kube ngokushesha.
ukubuza Amplified kulandela iresiphi eziyisisekelo ezingasisiza ukuba esiklanyelwe isimo sakho ethile. Kukhona izithako ezimbili kanye izinyathelo ezimbili. Izithako ezimbili zalokhu eyoku-1) a digital trace yedathasethi ukuthi libanzi kodwa nomzimba omncane (okungukuthi, it has abantu abaningi kodwa hhayi ukwaziswa okudingayo mayelana ngamunye abantu) kanye 2) ukuhlola ukuthi lincane kodwa aminyene (okungukuthi, it has abantu abambalwa, kodwa it has ukwaziswa okudingayo mayelana nalabo bantu). Bese, kunezinyathelo ezimbili. Okokuqala, ngoba abantu zombili imithombo idatha, ukwakha umshini imodeli yokufunda ukuthi isebenzisa idatha trace sedijithali ukubikezela inhlolovo izimpendulo. Okulandelayo, sebenzisa leso imodeli umshini ofunda ukuba sithi izimpendulo inhlolovo abo bonke ababesesinagogeni digital idatha trace. Ngakho, uma kukhona abanye umbuzo ofuna ukubuza ukuba abantu abaningi, bheka ngoba idatha trace digital kusuka kulabo bantu ezingase zisetshenziselwe ukuba ukubikezela impendulo yabo.
Eqhathanisa umzamo wokuqala nowesibili Blumenstock sika inkinga futhi inikeza nomfanekiso isifundo esibalulekile mayelana aphuma era yesibili third inkathi tindlelanchubo Survey Research: ekuqaleni akusona isiphelo. Lokho, izikhathi eziningi, le ndlela wokuqala ngeke kube best, kodwa uma abacwaningi Ngokuqhubeka working, izinto ziba ngcono. Ezimweni ezivamile, lapho ehlolisisa izindlela ezintsha ucwaningo emphakathini yobudala digital, kubalulekile ukwenza ukuhlola ezimbili ezihlukene: 1) kahle kangakanani lo msebenzi manje futhi 2) kahle kangakanani Ucabanga lokhu kungase kungasebenzi esikhathini esizayo njengoba landscape idatha izinguquko futhi njengoba abacwaningi achithe isikhathi esithe xaxa inkinga. Nakuba, abacwaningi ziqeqeshelwa ukwenza uhlobo lokuqala nokuhlola (indlela enhle yilo isichibi esithile yocwaningo), owesibili ngokuvamile kubaluleke kakhulu.
