4.4.1 Ukusebenza

Kwetsembeka libhekisela kangakanani imiphumela yokuhlola ukusekela a isiphetho more jikelele.

Akukho ukuhlolwa okuphelele, futhi abacwaningi baye bahlakulela isilulumagama esiningi ukuze bachaze izinkinga ezingenzeka. Ukuqinisekiswa kubhekisela ekutheni imiphumela yosesho oluthile lusekela kanjani isiphetho esiphelele. Ososayensi bezenhlalakahle bathole ukuthi kuyasiza ukuhlukanisa ukufaneleka ezinhlobonhlobo ezine eziyinhloko: isiphetho sesibalo sokuqinisekisa, ukuqinisekiswa kwangaphakathi, ukwakha ukufaneleka, nokusebenza kwangaphandle (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, chap. 2) . Ukufunda lezi zici kuzokunikeza uhlu lokuhlola ngokwengqondo lokucubungula nokuthuthukisa ukuklama nokuhlaziywa kokuhlolwa, futhi kuzokusiza ukuxhumana nabanye abacwaningi.

Izibalo zokuqinisekisa izibalo ezithinta izibalo zizungeze ukuthi ukuhlaziywa kwamanani okuhlolwa kwenziwa ngempumelelo. Kumongo we- Schultz et al. (2007) , umbuzo onjalo ungase uhlele ukuthi ngabe babhalise yini \(p\) -indinganiso ngokufanele. Izimiso zezibalo kudingeka zidalwe futhi zihlaziye ukuhlolwa zingaphezu kwamandla alo bhuku, kodwa azizange zishintshe ngokuyisisekelo eminyakeni yobudijithali. Yini eguqukile, noma kunjalo, ukuthi imvelo yedatha ekuhlolweni kwedijithali yenze amathuba amasha njengokusebenzisa izindlela zokufunda umshini ukulinganisa ukuphathwa kwemithi yokwelapha (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) .

Ukusebenza kwangaphakathi kubonisa ukuthi ngabe izinqubo zokuhlola zenziwa ngendlela efanele. Ukubuyela ekuhlolweni kuka- Schultz et al. (2007) , imibuzo mayelana nokusebenza kwangaphakathi ingaba phakathi kokuhlelwa kwe-randomization, ukulethwa ukwelashwa, nokukala kwemiphumela. Isibonelo, ungase ukhathazeke ngokuthi abasizi bezocwaningo abazange bafunde amamitha kagesi ngokuthembeka. Eqinisweni, u-Schultz nozakwabo babekhathazekile ngale nkinga, futhi babe nesampula yamamitha bafunde kabili; Ngenhlanhla, imiphumela yabonakala ngokufanayo. Ngokuvamile, ukuhlolwa kuka-Schultz nozakwabo kubonakala kunemvume ephezulu yangaphakathi, kodwa lokhu akusiyo njalo: inkambu eyinkimbinkimbi kanye nokuhlolwa kwe-intanethi ngokuvamile kuvame ukungena ezinkingeni empeleni ukuletha ukwelashwa okufanele kubantu abalungile nokulinganisa imiphumela yomuntu wonke. Ngenhlanhla, iminyaka yedijithali ingasiza ukunciphisa ukukhathazeka mayelana nokusebenza kwangaphakathi ngoba manje kulula ukuqiniseka ukuthi ukwelashwa kuhlinzekwa kulabo okufanele bawuthole futhi balinganise imiphumela yabo bonke abahlanganyeli.

Yakha izindawo zokuqinisekisa ezungeze umdlalo phakathi kwedatha kanye nokwakhiwa kwemfundiso. Njengoba kuxoxwe esahlukweni 2, ukwakha kuyizinto ezingacacile ukuthi ososayensi bezenhlalakahle bacabanga ngakho. Ngeshwa, le mibono engacacile ayinayo njalo izincazelo ezicacile nezilinganiso. Ukubuyela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) , isimangalo sokuthi imigomo yomphakathi engalungile inganciphisa ukusetshenziswa komgogodla kudinga abacwaningi ukuba bakhethe ukwelashwa okuzokwenza "imikhuba yomphakathi" (isibonelo, i-emoticon) nokukala "ukusetshenziswa kwegesi". Ekuhlolweni kwe-analog, abacwaningi abaningi bakhetha ukuphathwa kwabo futhi balinganisa imiphumela yabo. Le ndlela iqinisekisa ukuthi, ngangokunokwenzeka, lo mzamo ufanisa ukwakha okubhaliwe okucutshungulwayo. Ekuhlolweni kwedijithali lapho abacwaningi abambisana khona nezinkampani noma ohulumeni bezohlinzeka ngemithi yokwelashwa futhi basebenzise njalo izinhlelo ze-data ukukala imiphumela, umdlalo phakathi kokuhlolwa kanye nokwakhiwa kwemibhalo kungase kube nzima kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, ngilindele ukuthi ukwakha ukuqinisekiswa kuzovame ukukhathazeka okukhulu ekuhlolweni kwedijithali kunokuba kuhlolwa kwe-analog.

Okokugcina, ukuqinisekiswa kwangaphandle kufakazela ukuthi imiphumela yalolu cwaningo ingahle yenziwe kwezinye izimo. Ukubuyela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) , umuntu angabuza ukuthi ngabe lo mbono ofanayo-ukuhlinzeka abantu ngolwazi mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamandla abo ebuhlotsheni babo ontanga kanye nesignali yezimiso zokungalawuli (isib. I-emoticon) -nganciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla uma kwenziwa ngendlela ehlukile esimweni esihlukile. Ngokuhlolwa okuningi okwenzelwe kahle nokusebenza kahle, ukukhathazeka mayelana nokusebenza kwangaphandle kuyinkimbinkimbi ukubhekana nayo. Esikhathini esedlule, lezi mpikiswano mayelana nokusebenza kwangaphandle ngokuvamile azibandakanyeki ngaphandle kweqembu labantu abahlezi egumbini bezama ukucabanga ukuthi bekuzokwenzekani uma izinqubo zenziwe ngendlela ehlukile, noma endaweni ehlukile, noma ngabahlanganyeli abahlukene . Ngenhlanhla, iminyaka yobudijithali yenza abacwaningi bakwazi ukudlulela ngalezi zicabango ezingenasidingo futhi bahlole ukuqinisekiswa kwangaphandle ngokwemvelo.

Ngoba imiphumela evela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) yayijabulisa kakhulu, inkampani okuthiwa i-Opower ihlangane nezinsiza zase-United States ukuze zisebenzise ukwelashwa kabanzi. Ngokusekelwe ekudalweni Schultz et al. (2007) , i-Opower yakha imibiko yamandla e-Home Energy eyenziwe ngokwezifiso ezimbili ezinamakhemikhali amabili asemqoka: okubonisa ukusetshenziswa komgogodla komkhaya ngokumelene nomakhelwane bayo nge-emoticon kanye nokunikeza ngamasu okunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla (umfanekiso 4.6). Khona-ke, ngokubambisana nabacwaningi, i-Opower yaqhuba ukuhlola okungahleliwe okungahleliwe ukuze kuhlolwe umthelela walezi zincwadi. Ngisho noma ukwelashwa kulezi zivivinyo kwakuvame ukukhululwa ngokomzimba-ngokuvamile ngokusebenzisa i-mail yonogada endala-umphumela walinganiswa usebenzisa amadivaysi edijithali ezweni lomzimba (isib. Amamitha wamandla). Ngaphezu kwalokho, esikhundleni sokuqoqa ngesandla ngolwazi ngokusiza abacwaningi abavakashela indlu ngayinye, ukuhlolwa kwe-Opower kwenziwa konke ngokubambisana nezinkampani zamandla ezenza abacwaningi bakwazi ukufinyelela ekufundeni amandla. Ngakho-ke, lezi zivivinyo zezinsizakalo zedijithali zenziwa ngamanani amakhulu ngezindleko eziguquguqukayo eziphansi.

Umdwebo 4.6: Imibiko Yasekhaya Yasekhaya ineModeli Yokuqhathaniswa Komphakathi kanye neNqubo Yezinyathelo Zezinyathelo. Allcott (2011) imvume evela ku- Allcott (2011) , izibalo 1 no-2.

Esimweni sokuqala sokuhlola okubandakanya imizi engu-600,000 ezivela kumasayithi ahlukene ahlukene, u- Allcott (2011) wathola ukuthi i-Home Energy Report yanciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwegesi. Ngamanye amazwi, imiphumela evela ekucwaningeni okukhulu kakhulu, okungafani nakwezinye izindawo ngokulinganayo kwakunemiphumela efana nemiphumela evela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) . Ngaphezu kwalokho, ocwaningweni olulandelayo oluthatha imindeni eyengeziwe yezigidi eziyisishiyagalombili ezivela kumasayithi ahlukene angu-101, u- Allcott (2015) waphinde wathola ukuthi i-Home Energy Report iyanciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwegesi njalo. Lesi sethi esikhulu kakhulu sokuhlola siveze isibonelo esisha esithakazelisayo esingeke sibonakale kunoma yisiphi isilingo esisodwa: ubukhulu bomphumela benqatshelwe ekuhlolweni okulandelayo (umfanekiso 4.7). Allcott (2015) ucabange ukuthi lokhu kuncipha kwenzeka ngoba, ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ukwelashwa kwasetshenziselwa izinhlobo ezahlukene zabahlanganyeli. Ngokuqondile, izinsizakusebenza ezinamakhasimende amaningi agxile emvelweni cishe zathola lolu hlelo ekuqaleni, futhi amakhasimende abo ayephendula kakhulu ekwelapheni. Njengamasevisi anamakhasimende amancane ayegxile emvelweni athola lolu hlelo, ukusebenza kwawo kubonakala kunciphisa. Ngakho-ke, njengoba nje kuhlolwa okungahleliwe ekuhlolweni kuqinisekisa ukuthi iqembu lezokwelapha kanye nokulawula lifana, ukungahleliwe ezindaweni zokucwaninga kuqinisekisa ukuthi izilinganiso zingahle zenziwe kusukela eqenjini elilodwa labahlanganyeli ukuya emphakathini jikelele (cabanga emuva kwesahluko 3 mayelana nesampuli). Uma amasayithi okucwaninga angasetshenzisiwe ngokungahleliwe, ukukhiqiza-ngisho nokuhlolwa okuklanyelwe futhi okuqhutshiwe-kungabangela inkinga.

Umdwebo 4.7: Imiphumela yezilinganiso ezingu-111 zihlola umphumela we-Home Energy Report on ukusetshenziswa kukagesi. Emasimweni lapho uhlelo olwamukelwa khona kamuva, ludinga ukuba nemiphumela encane. Allcott (2015) uphawula ukuthi umthombo omkhulu walesi sibonelo yilowo masayithi Allcott (2015) amaningi agxile emvelweni ayengase athole isimiso ekuqaleni. Kuthathwa kusukela ku- Allcott (2015) , isibalo sesi-3.

Ngokubonke, lezi zivivinyo ezingu- Allcott (2011) ku- Allcott (2011) kanye no-101 ku- Allcott (2015) -zikhulume cishe ngemindeni eyizigidi ezingu-8.5 ezivela kuwo wonke amazwe ase-United States. Bahlale bebonisa ukuthi Imibiko Yasekhaya Yasekhaya iyanciphisa ukusetshenziswa kokusetshenziswa kagesi, umphumela osekela ukutholwa kwangempela kukaSchultz nozakwabo kusukela emakhaya angu-300 eCalifornia. Ngaphandle nje ukuchaza le miphumela yangempela, ukuhlolwa okulandelwayo kubonisa ukuthi usayizi wethonya uhluka ngendawo. Leli setha lokuhlola liphinde libonise amaphuzu amabili ajwayelekile mayelana nokuhlolwa kwendawo yedijithali. Okokuqala, abacwaningi bazokwazi ukubhekana nokukhathazeka ngokuphathelene nokusebenza kwangaphandle uma izindleko zokuqhuba izivivinyo ziphansi, futhi lokhu kungenzeka uma umphumela usuvele ulinganiswa uhlelo lwesistimu njalo. Ngakho-ke, kuphakamisa ukuthi abacwaningi kufanele babheke ezinye izici ezithakazelisayo nezibalulekile ezibhalwe kakade, bese uhlela ukuhlolwa ngaphezulu kwalesi sakhizinda esilinganisako esivele sikhona. Okwesibili, le setha lokuhlola lisikhumbuza ukuthi ukuhlolwa kwenkambu yedijithali akuyona nje inthanethi; ngokuphindaphindiwe, ngilindele ukuthi bazoba nomaphi imiphumela eminingi elinganiswa izinzwa emvelweni owakhiwe.

Izinhlobo ezine zesiphetho esiqinisekisiwe-izibalo eziqinisekisiwe, ukuqinisekiswa kwangaphakathi, ukwakha ukuqinisekiswa, nokusebenza kwangaphandle-ukuhlinzeka uhlu lokuhlola kwengqondo ukusiza abacwaningi ukuba bahlole ukuthi imiphumela evela ekuhlolweni oluthile isekela isiphetho esiphezulu. Uma kuqhathaniswa nokuhlolwa kwe-analog-age, ekuhlolweni kwe-digital-age, kufanele kube lula ukubhekana nokusebenza kwangaphandle ngokwemvelo, futhi kufanele kube lula ukuqinisekisa ukuqinisekisa kwangaphakathi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izindaba zokwakha ukufaneleka cishe zizoba yinselele kakhulu ekuhlolweni kwe-digital-age, ikakhulukazi ukuhlolwa kwenkambu yedijithali ehlanganisa ukusebenzisana nezinkampani.