4.4.3 Izindlela

Izilingo ukukala ukuthi kwenzekeni. Izindlela uchaze ukuthi kungani kwenzekile nokuthi kwenzeke kanjani.

Umqondo wesithathu oyisihluthulelo wokuhamba ngaphandle kokuhlolwa okulula yizinqubo . Izinqubo zisitshela ukuthi kungani ukwelashwa kwabangele kanjani noma kanjani . Inqubo yokusesha izindlela futhi ngezinye izikhathi ibizwa ngokuthi ifuna iziguquko ezithintekayo noma ukuxazulula izinguquko . Nakuba ukuhlolwa kungcono ukulinganisa imiphumela ye-causal, ngokuvamile akuklanyelwe ukudalula izindlela. Ukuhlolwa kwe-Digital kungasisiza ukuba sibone izindlela ngezindlela ezimbili: (1) zisenza sikwazi ukuqoqa idatha yocwaningo futhi (2) zisenza sikwazi ukuhlola ukwelashwa okuningi okuhlobene.

Ngoba izindlela ziyinkimbinkimbi ukuchaza ngokusemthethweni (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , ngizoqala ngesibonelo esilula: i-limes kanye ne-scurvy (Gerber and Green 2012) . Ekhulwini leshumi nesishiyagalombili, odokotela babe nomqondo omuhle wokuthi lapho olosolwandle bedla ama-lime, abazange bazuze. Isikrini siyisifo esibi, ngakho-ke lokhu kwakunolwazi olunamandla. Kodwa laba odokotela babengazi ukuthi kungani ama- limes avimbela ukugoba. Kwaze kwafika ngo-1932, eminyakeni engaba ngu-200 kamuva, ukuthi ososayensi babengabonisa ngokuthembeka ukuthi i-vithamini C yiyona isizathu sokuthi umklamo uvimbele (Carpenter 1988, 191) . Kulokhu, uvithamini C iyona indlela lapho limes ukuvimbela ukhwekhwe (sibalo 4.10). Yiqiniso, ukuhlonza indlela efanayo kubaluleke kakhulu ngokwesayensi-isayensi eminingi iwukuqonda ukuthi kungani izinto zenzeka. Ukuqaphela izindlela kubaluleke kakhulu. Uma sesiqonda ukuthi kungani ukwelashwa kusebenza, singakwazi ukuthuthukisa ukwelashwa okusha okusebenza kangcono nakakhulu.

Umdwebo 4.10: Izilinganiso zivimbela isisindo futhi inqubo i-vitamin C.

Ngeshwa, izindlela zokuhlukanisa zinzima kakhulu. Ngokungafani nama-limes kanye nesimanga, ezindaweni eziningi zenhlalo, ukwelashwa cishe kusebenza ngezindlela eziningi ezihlangene. Kodwa-ke, uma kwenzeka izinqubo zomphakathi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwamandla, abacwaningi baye bazama ukuhlukanisa izindlela ngokuqoqa idatha yenqubo kanye nokwelapha okuhlobene nokuhlolwa.

Enye indlela yokuhlola izindlela ezikhona kungukuqoqa idatha yenqubo mayelana nokuthi ukwelashwa kwathinta kanjani izindlela ezikhona. Ngokwesibonelo, khumbula ukuthi u- Allcott (2011) wabonisa ukuthi i-Home Energy Reports yabangela abantu ukwehlisa ukusetshenziswa kwabo kagesi. Kodwa lezi zimbiko zazisebenzisa kanjani ukusetshenziswa okuphansi kwegesi? Yayiziphi izindlela? Esifundweni esilandelayo, u- Allcott and Rogers (2014) bahlangene nenkampani yamandla ukuthi, ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lokuvuselela, bathole ulwazi mayelana nokuthi abathengi baphuthukise kanjani imishini yabo ukuze kube nemodeli engcono kakhulu enamandla. Allcott and Rogers (2014) bathola ukuthi abantu abengeziwe abathola imibiko ye-Home Energy bavuselele imishini yabo. Kodwa lo mthelela wawuncane kakhulu kangangokuthi ungabalelwa ku-2% kuphela kokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kumakhaya aphathwayo. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuthuthukiswa kohlelo lokusebenza akuyona indlela ebaluleke kakhulu lapho i-Home Energy Report iyanciphisa ukusetshenziswa kukagesi.

Indlela yesibili yokutadisha izindlela ukuqhuba izivivinyo ngezinguqulo ezahlukene ezahlukene zokwelashwa. Isibonelo, ekuhlolweni kuka- Schultz et al. (2007) kanye nawo onke ama-test Energy Home Report, abahlanganyeli banikezwe ukwelashwa okwakunezingxenye ezimbili eziyinhloko (1) amathiphu mayelana nokulondolozwa kwamandla kanye (2) nokwaziswa mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwabo kwamandla okuhlobene neontanga (umfanekiso 4.6). Ngakho-ke, kungenzeka ukuthi amathiphu okusindisa amandla yilokho okwabangele ushintsho, hhayi ulwazi lontanga. Ukuze kuhlolwe ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi amathiphu kuphela Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) , Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) bahlangene nenkampani yamanzi eduze kwase-Atlanta, Georgia, futhi baqhuba umzamo ohlobene nokulondolozwa kwamanzi okubandakanya imizi engaba ngu-100 000. Kwakukhona izimo ezine:

• iqembu elithole amathiphu ekusindisa amanzi
• iqembu elithole amathiphu ekusindisa amanzi kanye nesifiso sokuziphatha sokugcina amanzi
• iqembu elitholile amathiphu ekusindisa amanzi kanye nesifiso sokuziphatha sokugcina amanzi kanye nolwazi mayelana nokusetshenziswa kwamanzi okuhlobene nontanga yabo
• iqembu lokulawula

Abacwaningi bathola ukuthi ukwelashwa kwamathiphu kuphela akubanga nomthelela ekusetshenzisweni kwamanzi okwesikhashana (unyaka owodwa), ophakathi (iminyaka emibili), kanye nesikhathi eside (iminyaka emithathu). Amathiphu kanye nokuphathwa kwezikhalazo kubangele ukuthi abahlanganyeli banciphise ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi, kodwa kuphela ngesikhathi esifushane. Okokugcina, i-tips kanye nesiphakamiso nokwelashwa kolwazi kontanga kubangele ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa esikhathini esifushane, esiphakathi nesikhathi eside (isibalo 4.11). Lezi zinhlobo zokuhlolwa ngezokwelapha ezingenamkhawulo kuyindlela enhle yokuthola ukuthi iyiphi ingxenye yokwelashwa-noma yiziphi izingxenye ezihlangene-yizo ezenza umphumela (Gerber and Green 2012, sec. 10.6) . Isibonelo, ukuhlolwa kukaFerraro kanye nozakwethu kubonisa ukuthi amathiphu okonga amanzi kuphela akwanele ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi.

Umdwebo 4.11: Imiphumela evela Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . Ukwelashwa kwathunyelwa ngoMeyi 21, 2007, futhi imiphumela yabalwa ngesikhathi sonyaka ka-2007, 2008, no-2009. Ngokungahambisani nomuthi, abacwaningi babe nethemba lokuthuthukisa umqondo ongcono wezinqubo. Imithi yokwelapha kuphela ayinayo impumelelo esikhathini esifushane (unyaka owodwa), medium (iminyaka emibili), kanye neminyaka ende (iminyaka emithathu). Amathiphu kanye nokwelashwa kwesikhala kwenza abathintekayo banciphise ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi, kodwa kuphela esikhathini esifushane. Iseluleko kanye nesiphakamiso kanye nokwelashwa kolwazi kontanga kwenza abathintekayo banciphise ukusetshenziswa kwamanzi esikhathini esifushane, esiphakathi nesikhathi eside. Ibha yokulinganisa kulinganiswa ngezikhathi zokuzethemba. Bheka Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) ukuze uthole izinto zokufunda zangempela. Ilandelwe kusuka Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) , ithebula 1.

Okufanelekile, omunye angadlulela ngaphezu kwezingxenye zezingxenye (amathiphu; amathiphu kanye nokukhansela, amathiphu kanye nesiphakamiso nolwazi lontanga) ekuklanyeleni okuphelele kwezinto zokwenza izinto-futhi ngezinye izikhathi kuthiwa yi- \(2^k\) umklamo wokwenza iqiniso-lapho inhlanganisela ngayinye ekhona Izakhi ezintathu zihlolwe (ithebula 4.1). Ngokuhlola zonke izinhlanganisela ezikhona zezingxenye, abacwaningi bangahlola ngokugcwele umphumela wento ngayinye ngokuzihlukanisa futhi kuhlangene. Isibonelo, ukuhlolwa kukaFerraro kanye nozakwethu akudalula ukuthi ukuqhathaniswa kontanga kuphela bekuyokwanele ukuholela ekuguqulweni kwesikhathi eside esikhathini sokuziphatha. Esikhathini esedlule, lezi zakhiwo ezigcwele zokwenza izinto zenze kube nzima ukugijima ngoba zidinga inamba enkulu yabahlanganyeli futhi zidinga abacwaningi bakwazi ukulawula ngokuqondile nokuletha inamba enkulu yokwelapha. Kodwa, kwezinye izimo, iminyaka yobudijithali isusa lezi zithiyo zokungena.

Ngokufingqa, izindlela-izindlela ezithinta ngayo ukwelashwa-zibaluleke kakhulu. Ukuhlolwa kwe-Digital-age kungasiza abacwaningi bafunde ngezinqubo (1) ukuqoqa idatha yenqubo kanye (2) nokuvumela imiklamo ephelele yokwenza izinto. Izindlela eziphakanyisiwe zalezi zindlela zingabuye zihlolwe ngqo yizivivinyo ezenzelwe ukuhlola izindlela (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

Ngokuphelele, lezi zici ezintathu-ukufaneleka, ukuphazamiseka kwemiphumela yokwelashwa, kanye nezinqubo-inikezela ngemibono enamandla yokuklama nokuhumusha ukuhlolwa. Lezi zindlela zisiza abacwaningi ukuba bahambe ngaphandle kokuhlola okulula ngokuthi yini "esebenza" ekuhlolweni okucebile okuhambisana nokuqonda, okuveza ukuthi kuphi futhi kungani ukwelashwa kusebenza, futhi lokho kungasiza ngisho nabacwaningi ukuba bakhethe ukwelashwa okuphumelelayo. Njengoba kunikezwe lesi sizinda somqondo mayelana nokuhlolwa, manje ngizophendukela ukuthi ungenza kanjani ukuhlolwa kwakho kwenzeke.