3.3.1 Imibono
Imibono imayelana Ukusebenzisa amasu okuqondisisa: kusuka wabaphenduli yakho lelitshe labantu bakho.
Ukuze siqonde uhlobo lweziphambeko ezingenzeka uma kuvela kubaphenduli kubantu abakhulu, ake sicabangele i-poll ye- Literary Digest eyazama ukubikezela umphumela wamakhetho kamongameli we-1936 wase-US. Nakuba kwenzeka eminyakeni engaphezu kwengu-75 eyedlule, lokhu kudideka kusabalulekile isifundo sokufundisa abacwaningi namuhla.
I-Literary Digest yayingumagazini odumile-inzalo ethandwayo, futhi kusukela ngo-1920 baqala ukuqhuba izinkampani zokwazisa ukubikezela imiphumela yekhetho likaMengameli. Ukwenza lezi zibikezelo, babezokuthumelela abantu abaningi bese bevele baphakamise imibhalo eyabuyiselwe; I-Literary Digest ibike ngokuziqhenya ukuthi amavoti abawatholile awazange "alinganiselwe, alungiswe noma ahunyushwe." Le nqubo yabikezela ngokunembile abawinile ukhetho ngo-1920, 1924, 1928 no-1932. Ngo-1936, phakathi kwe-Great Depression, Literary I-Digest yathumela izivoti kubantu abayizigidi ezingu-10, amagama abo avela kakhulu kumarekhodi efoni kanye namarekhodi okubhalisa imoto. Nakhu abachaza indlela yabo:
"Umshini ohamba phambili ohamba phambili ohamba phambili uhamba ngokuzivocavoca okusheshayo kweminyaka engamashumi amathathu ukunciphisa ukuqagela kumaqiniso anzima ... kuleli sonto Amapolishi angu-500 ahlwanyela amakheli angaphezu kwesigamu sesigidi ngosuku. Nsuku zonke, ekamelweni eliphezulu eliphakeme ngaphezu kwe-Fourth Avenue e-Fourth Avenue, eNew York, abasebenzi abangu-400 bahlehlisa izicucu eziyizigidi zezinto eziprintiwe-ngokwanele ukuvula izingqimba zomasipala ezingu-40. Njalo ihora, eNgxenyeni yePost Office siqu, i-posting imishini yokulinganisa emithathu ethungatha futhi igcizelele ama-oblongs amhlophe; Abasebenzi beposi bekhono bawafaka emaphoyiseni amakhulu; izindiza AMALIMI amaloli awaphikisa ukuveza izitimela ze-imeyili. . . Iviki elilandelayo, izimpendulo zokuqala ezivela kulezigidi eziyishumi zizoqala umzila ozayo wokuvota, zihlolwe kathathu, ziqinisekiswe, izikhathi eziyisihlanu zihlukaniswe futhi zihlanganisiwe. Uma isibalo sokugcina sesiqedile futhi sihlolwe, uma isipiliyoni esidlule singumgogodla, leli zwe lizokwazi ukuthi libe yingxenye yezingxenye ezingu-1 ezithandwayo ezithandwa kakhulu izigidi ezingu-40 [abavoti]. "(Agasti 22, 1936)
Ukukhishwa kwesisindo se- Literary Digest kweso sikhathi kubonakala kunomcwaningi "wedatha omkhulu" namuhla. Kwabalinganiselwa kwezigidi ezingu-10 basatshalaliswe, kwaphindiswa izigidi ezingu-2.4 ezibuyiselwe-okuyizikhathi eziphindwe izikhathi ezingu-1 000 kunamapolitiki anamuhla. Kusukela kulaba bantu abayizigidi ezingu-2.4 abaphendulile, lesi sigwebo sasicacile: U-Alf Landon uzozama ukuhlula uFranklin Roosevelt. Kodwa, eqinisweni, uRoosevelt wanqoba i-Landon e-landslide. I- Literary Digest ingayiphutha kanjani ngemininingwane eminingi? Ukuqonda kwethu kwesimanje sampula kwenza amaphutha kaLetary Digest acace futhi asisize sigweme ukwenza amaphutha afanayo esikhathini esizayo.
Ukucabangela ngokucacile mayelana nesampuli kudinga ukuba sicabangele amaqembu amane abantu abahlukene (isibalo 3.2). Iqembu lokuqala liyisibalo esinqunyiwe ; leli yiqembu iqembu lomcwaningi elichaza njengabantu abanentshisekelo. Endabeni ye- Literary Digest , inani labantu ababhekiswe kulo kwaba ngabavoti okhethweni luka-1936 loongameli.
Ngemva kokunquma ngesibalo esithile, umcwaningi udinga ukuthuthukisa uhlu lwabantu abangasetshenziselwa sampula. Lolu hlu lubizwa ngokuthi ifreyimu yesampula futhi abantu abakulo kuthiwa uhlaka lwesibalo . Ngokufanele, inani labantu ababhekiswe kulo kanye nesibalo sabantu bazoba yilokho okufanayo, kodwa ngokwenza lokhu ngokuvamile akunjalo. Isibonelo, esimweni se- Literary Digest , isixuku sabantu kwakuyizigidi ezingu-10 zabantu ogama lawo lafika ngokuyinhloko kumarekhodi efoni kanye namarekhodi okubhalisa imoto. Umehluko phakathi kwabantu abathintekayo kanye nesibalo sabantu ababizwa ngokuthi i-frame kubhekwa ngephutha lokuhlanganisa . Iphutha lokuhlanganisa alikho, ngokwalo, izinkinga zokuqinisekisa. Nokho, kungaholela Ukusabalala ukuchema kuzo uma abantu labantu Uhlaka kukhona ehlelekile bahluke eningini labantu target abangekho sabantu uzimele. Lokhu, empeleni, yilokho okwenzekile ku-poll ye- Literary Digest . Abantu basefreyimeni yabo babelindeleke ukuba basekele u-Alf Landon, ngenxa yokuthi babecebile (khumbula ukuthi zombili izingcingo kanye nemoto kwakungcono futhi kubiza ngo-1936). Ngakho-ke, ku-poll ye- Literary Digest , iphutha lokuhlanganisa liholele ekubambisweni kokubheka.
Umdwebo 3.2: amaphutha okumela.
Ngemuva kokuchaza isixuku sabantu , isinyathelo esilandelayo singumcwaningi ukukhetha isibalo sabantu ; laba yibo abantu abacwaningi bazozama ukuxoxa nabo. Uma isampula sinemikhakha ehlukene kunabantu abalingiswayo, isampuli singakwazi ukwethula iphutha lesampula . Nokho, uma kwenzeka i- Literary Digest fiasco, empeleni kwakungekho sampuli-lo magazini ozoxhumana nawo wonke umuntu ohlaka lwesibalo-ngakho-ke kwakungekho nephutha lesampula. Abacwaningi abaningi bavame ukugxila kwisiphambeko sampula-lokhu ngokuvamile uhlobo lwephutha elifakwe engxenyeni yephutha elibikwe ekuhloleni-kodwa i- Literary Digest fiasco isikhumbuza ukuthi sidinga ukucabangela yonke imithombo yephutha, kokubili okungahleliwe futhi ehlelekile.
Okokugcina, emva kokukhetha isampula labantu, umcwaningi uzama ukuxoxa nawo wonke amalungu ayo. Labo bantu abaxoxwa ngempumelelo babizwa ngokuthi abaphenduliwe . Okufanelekile, isibalo sabasampula kanye nabaphenduliwe bebafana ncamashi, kodwa ngomkhuba akukho lutho. Okusho ukuthi, abantu abakhethiwe esikampheni ngezinye izikhathi abahlanganyeli. Uma abantu abaphendulayo behluke kulabo abangaphenduli, khona-ke kungaba khona ukungabi nandaba . I-non-compliance bias yinkinga yesibili eyinhloko ne- Literary Digest . Abantu abangamaphesenti angama-24 kuphela abathola ithuba lokuvota baphendule, futhi kwavela ukuthi abantu abasekela i-Landon babengase baphendule.
Ngaphandle nje kokuba yisibonelo ukwethula imibono yokumelela, i- Literary Digest i- poll iyimifanekiso ephindaphindiwe, ixwayisa abacwaningi ngezingozi zokuba nesampula esingenasici. Ngeshwa, ngicabanga ukuthi isifundo abantu abaningi abakudweba kule ndaba akulungile. Ukuziphatha okujwayelekile kakhulu kwendzaba ukuthi abacwaningi abakwazi ukufunda okuthile kusuka kumasampuli angenakwenzeka (okusho, amasampula ngaphandle kwemithetho eqondile enamathuba asekelwe ekukhetheni abahlanganyeli). Kodwa, njengoba ngizobonisa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulesahluko, lokho akulona iqiniso. Esikhundleni salokho, ngicabanga ukuthi kunezimiso ezimbili ngempela kule ndaba; ukuziphatha okuyiqiniso nanamuhla njengoba kwakunjalo ngo-1936. Okokuqala, inani elikhulu lemininingwane eqoqiwe ngokungenasici ngeke liqiniseke ukuthi kulinganiselwa okuhle. Ngokuvamile, ukuba nenani elikhulu labaphendulile kunciphisa ukuhlukahluka kwezilinganiso, kodwa akunciphisi ukuhlaziya. Ngedatha eningi, abacwaningi bangase bakuthole ukulinganisa okuqondile kwezinto ezingalungile; zingaba ngokunembile (McFarland and McFarland 2015) . Isifundo sesibili esiyinhloko esivela kwi- Literary Digest fiasco ukuthi abacwaningi kudingeka bahlole ukuthi isampula yabo iqoqwe kanjani lapho benza izilinganiso. Ngamanye amazwi, ngoba inqubo yesampula kwi- Literary Digest i- poll yayisetshenziswe ngendlela ehlelekile kwabanye abaphendulile, abacwaningi kwakudingeka basebenzise inqubo yokulinganisela eyinkimbinkimbi eyayilinganisela abanye abaphendulile kunabanye. Kamuva kulesi sahluko, ngizokubonisa inqubo enjalo yokulinganisela-i-post-stratification-engakusiza ukuba wenze izilinganiso ezingcono kusuka kuma-sampuli angenayo.
