3.6.2 ukucela amplified
I-Amplified icela ukusebenzisa imodeli yokubikezela ukuhlanganisa idatha yocwaningo evela kubantu abambalwa abanomthombo omkhulu wemininingwane kubantu abaningi.
Indlela ehlukile yokuhlanganisa ucwaningo kanye nemithombo emikhulu yedatha yinkqubo engizoyibiza nge- amplified ibuza . Ekukhulumeni okukhulunywayo, umcwaningi usebenzisa inqubo yokubikezela ukuhlanganisa idatha encane yedatha yokuhlola ngenomthombo omkhulu wemininingwane ukuze kuvezwe izilinganiso esikalini noma ububanzi obungenakwenzeka ngomthombo wedatha ngabanye. Isibonelo esibalulekile sokubuza okukhulunywa sivela emsebenzini kaJoshua Blumenstock, owayefuna ukuqoqa idatha engasiza ekuqondiseni ukuthuthukiswa emazweni ampofu. Esikhathini esedlule, abacwaningi abaqoqa lolu hlobo lwedatha ngokuvamile bekufanele bathathe enye yezindlela ezimbili: ukuhlola isampula noma ukucubungula. Ukuhlolwa kwesampula, lapho abacwaningi bexoxa khona nenani elincane labantu, bangaba nezimo eziguquguqukayo, ngesikhathi esifanele, futhi bashibhile. Kodwa-ke, lezi zinhlolovo, ngoba zisekelwe esampheni, zivame ukulinganiselwa ekuxazululweni kwazo. Ngenhlolovo yesampula, ngokuvamile kunzima ukwenza izilinganiso mayelana nezizinda ezithile zomhlaba noma izinhlangano ezithile zabantu. Ukucwaninga, ngakolunye uhlangothi, uzama ukuxoxa nabantu bonke, ngakho-ke bangasetshenziselwa ukukhiqiza izilinganiso zezifunda ezincane noma amaqembu omphakathi. Kodwa ukucubungula ngokuvamile kuyabiza, kuncane kakhulu ekugxilweni (kubandakanya kuphela inombolo encane yemibuzo), hhayi ngesikhathi (kwenzeka ngesikhathi esimisiwe, njengale minyaka yonke engu-10) (Kish 1979) . Esikhundleni sokuba unamathekisthi okuhlola noma ucingo, cabanga uma abacwaningi bangase bahlanganise izici ezinhle kakhulu zombili. Cabanga uma abacwaningi bebuza yonke imibuzo kumuntu ngamunye nsuku zonke. Ngokusobala, lokhu kutholakala njalo, ukucwaninga ngaso sonke isikhathi kungumqondo wesayensi yezenhlalo. Kodwa kubonakala sengathi singaqala ukuqhathanisa lokhu ngokuhlanganisa imibuzo yocwaningo kusuka enombolweni encane yabantu abanomkhondo we-digital kubantu abaningi.
Ucwaningo lwe-Blumenstock lwaqala lapho ehlangana nomhlinzeki omkhulu wefoni e-Rwanda, futhi inkampani inikeze amarekhodi angabonakali amakhasimende avela kumakhasimende angaba yizigidi ezingu-1.5 phakathi kuka-2005 no-2009. Lawa marekhodi aqukethe ulwazi mayelana nombiko ngamunye kanye nomyalezo wombhalo, njengesikhathi sokuqala, isikhathi , futhi indawo eseduze nendawo yocingo nomamukeli. Ngaphambi kokuba ngikhulume ngezimpikiswano zezibalo, kufanelekile ukukhomba ukuthi lesi sinyathelo sokuqala singase sibe esinye sezicwaningi kunazo zonke kubacwaningi abaningi. Njengoba ngichazile esahlukweni 2, imithombo eminingi yedatha enkulu ayitholakali kubacwaningi. I-telephone meta-data, ikakhulukazi, ayifinyeleleka kakhulu ngoba akunakwenzeka ukuba i-anonymize futhi ngokuqinisekile iqukethe ulwazi abahlanganyeli abazobheka ngokucabangela (Mayer, Mutchler, and Mitchell 2016; Landau 2016) . Kulesi simo, abacwaningi babeqaphele ukuvikela idatha kanye nomsebenzi wabo wawuqondiswa ngumuntu wesithathu (okungukuthi, i-IRB yabo). Ngizobuyela kulezi zindaba zokuziphatha ngokuningiliziwe kwesahluko 6.
Blumenstock wayenesithakazelo ekulingeni ingcebo nenhlalakahle. Kodwa lezi zimfanelo azikho ngqo kumarekhodi okushaya. Ngamanye amazwi, la marekhodi amakholi awaphelele kulolu cwaningo-isici esivamile semithombo emikhulu yedatha ekhulunywe ngayo ngokuningiliziwe esahlukweni 2. Nokho, kubonakala sengathi amarekhodi okubiza cishe anolwazi olungahlinzeka ngokungaqondile ngolwazi mayelana nengcebo inhlalakahle. Ngenxa yalokhu kungenzeka, i-Blumenstock yabuza ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuqeqesha imodeli yokufunda imishini ukubikezela ukuthi umuntu uzosabela kanjani ekuhloleni okususelwa kumarekhodi abo okubiza. Uma lokhu kungenzeka, iBlueumstock ingasebenzisa le model ukubikezela izimpendulo zempendulo yazo zonke amakhasimende ayizigidi ezingu-1.5.
Ukuze wakhe futhi aqeqeshe imodeli enjalo, ama-Blumenstock nabasizi bezocwaningo abavela eKigali Institute of Science and Technology bafaka isampula okungahleliwe mayelana namakhasimende ayizinkulungwane. Abacwaningi bachaza imigomo yale phrojekthi kubahlanganyeli, bacela imvume yabo yokuxhumanisa izimpendulo zemphenyo kumarekhodi okushaya ucingo, babuze uchungechunge lwemibuzo yokulinganisa ingcebo yabo nenhlalakahle, njengokuthi "Unayo yini umsakazo? "futhi" Ingabe unayo ibhayisikili? "(bheka umfanekiso 3.14 ohlwini oluthile). Bonke ababambe iqhaza kulolu cwaningo bahlawuliswa ngokwezimali.
Ngokulandelayo, i-Blumenstock isebenzisa izinyathelo ezimbili ezivamile ekufundeni komshini: ubuchwepheshe bokufaka okulandelwa ukufunda okuqondisiwe. Okokuqala, kwisiteji sokufaka ubunjiniyela , kuwo wonke umuntu owacutshungulwa, i-Blumenstock yaguqula amarekhodi ekholi ibe yizici eziningi mayelana nomuntu ngamunye; ososayensi bezingcingo bangabiza lezi zici "izici" futhi ososayensi bezenhlalakahle bangazibiza ngokuthi "eziguquguqukayo." Ngokwesibonelo, kumuntu ngamunye, i-Blumenstock ibalwa inani lezinsuku ngomsebenzi, inani labantu abahlukile umuntu oxhumana naye, inani lemali esetshenziselwa isikhathi se-airtime, njalonjalo. Ngokweqile, ubuciko obuhle bokusebenza bubudinga ulwazi lwesilungiselelo socwaningo. Isibonelo, uma kubalulekile ukuhlukanisa phakathi kwezingcingo zasekhaya nasemhlabeni jikelele (singalindela abantu ababiza emhlabeni wonke ukuba babe ngabacebile), khona-ke lokhu kufanele kwenziwe esiteji sesici sokungena. Umcwaningi onokungaqondi kahle iRwanda angase angafaki lesi sici, bese ukusebenza kokubikezela komodeli kuzohlupheka.
Ngokulandelayo, esiteji sokufunda esiphethwe, i-Blumenstock yakha imodeli ukubikezela ukuthi impendulo yempendulo yomuntu ngamunye isekelwe kuzici zayo. Kulesi simo, i-Blumenstock isetshenziselwa ukuguqulwa kwemithi, kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi isetshenziselwa izindlela eziningi zokufunda izibalo noma zemishini.
Kwenzeke kahle kangakanani? Ingabe i-Blumenstock yakwazi ukubikezela izimpendulo zemibuzo yokuhlola njengokuthi "Unayo umsakazo?" Nokuthi "Unayo ibhayisikili?" Usebenzisa izici ezitholakala kumarekhodi amakholi? Ukuze ahlolisise ukusebenza komodeli wakhe wokubikezela, i-Blumenstock isebenzisa ukuqinisekiswa okuphambene nomgwaqo , inqubo ejwayelekile esetshenziselwa isayensi yezesayensi kodwa engavamile kwisayensi yezenhlalakahle. Umgomo wokuqinisekiswa okuqinisekisiwe ukuhlinzeka ngokuhlola okulungile kokusebenza komodeli wokuqagela ngokuqeqesha futhi ukuwuhlola kuma-subset ehlukene wedatha. Ikakhulukazi, i-Blumenstock yahlukanisa idatha yakhe ibe ngu-10 amaqembu abantu abangu-100 ngamunye. Khona-ke, wasebenzisa iziqu eziyisishiyagalolunye ukuze aqeqeshe imodeli yakhe, futhi ukusebenza okubikezelayo imodeli eqeqeshwe kuhlolwe ku-chunk esele. Uphindaphindile le nqubo izikhathi ezingu-10-nge-chunk yedatha ngayinye ekutholeni ukuphenduka okufanayo njengedatha yokuqinisekisa-nokulinganisa imiphumela.
Ukunemba kwezibikezelo kwakuphakeme kwezinye izici (isibalo 3.14); isibonelo, i-Blumenstock ingacacisa nge-97.6% ngokunemba uma othile enomsakazo. Lokhu kungase kuzwakale kuhlaba umxhwele, kodwa kubalulekile ukuqhathanisa indlela eyinkimbinkimbi yokubikezela ngokumelene nokunye okulula. Kulokhu, enye elula ukubikezela ukuthi wonke umuntu uzonikeza impendulo evame kakhulu. Isibonelo, abantu abangu-97.3% ababikile babika ukuthi banomsakazo ngakho uma uBlumenstock ebikezele ukuthi wonke umuntu uzobika ukuthi unomsakazo, ngabe ngabe ulungile ngo-97.3%, okungafani nokufana nenqubo yakhe eyinkimbinkimbi (97.6% ngokunemba) . Ngamanye amazwi, yonke imininingwana emnandi kanye nokwenza imodeli yandisa ukunemba kokubikezela kusuka ku-97.3% kuya ku-97.6%. Kodwa-ke, eminye imibuzo, efana ne "Ingabe unayo ibhayisikili?", Izibikezelo zithuthukile kusuka ku-54.4% kuya ku-67.6%. Ngokuvamile, isibalo 3.15 sikhombisa ukuthi kwezinye izici Blumenstock azizange ngcono kangcono nje ngokwenza isichazamazwi esilula, kodwa lokho kwezinye izici kwakukhona ukuthuthukiswa okuthile. Uma ubheka kule miphumela, noma kunjalo, ungase ucabange ukuthi le ndlela isethembisa ngokukhethekile.
Umdwebo 3.14: Ukunemba kokubikezela komfanekiso wesitatimende oqeqeshwe ngamarekhodi ekholi. Ilandelwe kusuka ku- Blumenstock (2014) , ithebula 2.
Umdwebo 3.15: Ukuqhathaniswa nokunemba okubikezelayo kumodeli wesitatimende aqeqeshwe ngamarekhodi amakholi ekubikezeleni okuyisisekelo esilula. Amaphoyinti atshaywa kancane ukuze agweme ukuwela. Ilandelwe kusuka ku- Blumenstock (2014) , ithebula 2.
Kodwa-ke, ngemva konyaka owodwa, uBlumenstock kanye nozakwethu ababili-uGabriel Cadamuro noRobert On-banyathelise iphepha eSayensi (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) engcono kakhulu (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Kwakukhona izizathu ezimbili eziyinhloko zobuchwepheshe kulokhu kuthuthukiswa: (1) basebenzisa izindlela eziningi eziyinkimbinkimbi (okungukuthi, indlela entsha yokufaka ubunjiniyela kanye nemodeli eyinkimbinkimbi yokubikezela izimpendulo ezivela eziciweni) futhi (2) kunokuzama ukuphendula izimpendulo kumuntu ngamunye imibuzo yocwaningo (isib. "Unayo umsakazo?"), bazama ukufaka inkomba yobuningi bezinhlanganisela. Lezi zithuthukisi zobuchwepheshe zisho ukuthi zingenza umsebenzi ozwakalayo wokusebenzisa amarekhodi okushaya ucingo ukubikezela ingcebo yabantu kwisampula yabo.
Ukubikezela ingcebo yabantu esampheni, noma kunjalo, kwakungewona umgomo omkhulu wokucwaninga. Khumbula ukuthi umgomo oyinhloko kwakuhlanganisa ukuhlanganisa ezinye zezinto ezinhle kakhulu zokuhlola isampula kanye nezinhlawulo zokukhiqiza ukukhiqiza izilinganiso ezinembile, zokuxazulula ukuhlupheka kwamanye amazwe asathuthuka. Ukuhlola ikhono labo lokufeza lo mgomo, i-Blumenstock kanye nozakwabo basebenzise imodeli yabo kanye nedatha yabo ukubikezela ingcebo yabo bonke abantu abayizigidi ezingu-1.5 emarekhodi amakholi. Futhi basebenzise imininingwane ye-geospatial efakwe kumarekhodi amakholi (khumbula ukuthi idatha yayihlanganisa indawo yesakhiwo esincane esiseduze ngayinye) ukulinganisa indawo yokuhlala yokuhlala yomuntu ngamunye (isibalo 3.17). Ukubeka lezi zilinganiso ezimbili ndawonye, i-Blumenstock kanye nozakwabo bakhiqize ukulinganiswa kokusabalalisa kwezwe lomthengi wokubhalisa endaweni enhle kakhulu ye-granularity spatial. Isibonelo, bangalinganisa umcebo wesilinganiso kumaseli angu-2,148 aseRwanda (iyunithi encane yokuphatha ezweni).
Lezi zilinganiso zazilinganisa kangakanani izinga lobuphofu kulezi zifunda? Ngaphambi kokuba ngiphendule lo mbuzo, ngifuna ukugcizelela ukuthi kunezizathu eziningi zokungabaza. Isibonelo, ikhono lokwenza izibikezelo ezingeni ngalinye lihle kakhulu (isibalo 3.17). Futhi, mhlawumbe okubaluleke nakakhulu, abantu abanamaselula bangase bahluke ngokuhlelekile kubantu abangenawo amafoni eselula. Ngakho-ke, i-Blumenstock kanye nozakwabo bangase bahlupheke ezinhlobonhlobo zamaphutha okufakaza okwenyusa ucwaningo lwe-1936 Literary Digest engaluchazile ngaphambili.
Ukuze uthole umqondo wekhwalithi yezindinganiso zabo, i-Blumenstock nozakwabo kudingeka baqhathanise nenye into. Ngenhlanhla, ngesikhathi esifanayo nesifundo sabo, elinye iqembu labacwaningi laliqhuba ucwaningo lwezenhlalakahle nakakhulu eRwanda. Lokhu okunye ukuhlola-okwakungengxenye yocwaningo oluhlonishwayo lwe-Demographic and Health Survey-lalinesabelomali esikhulu futhi selisebenzisa izindlela eziphakeme, izindlela zendabuko. Ngakho-ke, izilinganiso ezivela ku-Survey ne-Health Survey zingabhekwa ngokulinganisela njengokulinganiswa kwegolide. Lapho kuqhathaniswa lezi zilinganiso ezimbili, zazifana kakhulu (isibalo 3.17). Ngamanye amazwi, ngokuhlanganisa idatha encane yenhlolovo ngamarekhodi amakholi, i-Blumenstock kanye nozakwethu bakwazi ukukhiqiza izilinganiso ezifaniswa nalabo abavela ezindabeni ezijwayelekile zegolide.
Umangaleli angase abone le miphumela njengokudumazeka. Phela, enye indlela yokubukela ukuthi ukuthi ngokusebenzisa idatha enkulu nokufunda komshini, i-Blumenstock kanye nozakwethu bakwazi ukukhiqiza izilinganiso ezingenziwa ngokwengeziwe ngezindlela ezikhona kakade. Kodwa angicabangi ukuthi yindlela enhle yokucabanga ngalolu cwaningo ngezizathu ezimbili. Okokuqala, ukulinganisa okuvela ku-Blumenstock nozakwabo kwakunezikhathi ezingaba ngu-10 ngokushesha futhi izikhathi ezingu-50 ezishibhile (uma izindleko zilinganiswa ngokwezindleko eziguquguqukayo). Njengoba ngiphikisana ekuqaleni kwalesi sahluko, abacwaningi bayakukhathalela izindleko ezingozini yabo. Kulesi simo, isibonelo, ukunciphisa okukhulu kwezindleko kusho ukuthi kunokuba kuqhutshwe njalo eminyakeni embalwa-njengendlela evamile yokuHlola kwaMademoni kanye neMpilo-lolu hlobo lwenhlolovo lungaqhutshwa njalo ngenyanga, oluzohlinzeka izinzuzo eziningi kubacwaningi kanye nenqubomgomo abenzi. Isizathu sesibili ukungathathi umbono we-skeptic ukuthi lolu cwaningo lunikeza iresiphi eyisisekelo engaqondiswa nezimo eziningi zokucwaninga. Le recipe inezithako ezimbili kuphela nezinyathelo ezimbili. Izithako kukhona (1) umthombo omkhulu wedatha ovulekile kodwa omncane (okungukuthi, unabantu abaningi kodwa hhayi ulwazi oludingayo ngomuntu ngamunye) futhi (2) inhlolovo emincane kodwa eminyene (okungukuthi, inayo kuphela abantu abambalwa, kodwa unolwazi oludingayo ngalabo bantu). Lezi zithako zihlangene ngezinyathelo ezimbili. Okokuqala, kubantu abavela kokubili imithombo yedatha, yakha imodeli yokufunda yomshini esebenzisa umthombo omkhulu wedatha ukubikezela izimpendulo zocwaningo. Okulandelayo, sebenzisa leyo modeli ukuze uphendule izimpendulo zocwaningo zomuntu wonke kumthombo omkhulu wedatha. Ngakho-ke, uma kukhona umbuzo ofuna ukubuza abantu abaningi, bheka umthombo omkhulu wedatha kulabo bantu abangase basetshenziswe ukubikezela impendulo yabo, ngisho noma ungakhathazeki ngomthombo omkhulu wedatha . Okusho ukuthi, i-Blumenstock nozakwabo abazange bakhathalele ngokwemvelo ngamarekhodi amakholi; babekhathalela kuphela amarekhodi amakholi ngoba babengasetshenziswa ukubikezela izimpendulo zocwaningo ezazinakekelayo. Lesi sitshalo-okuwukuthi nje isithakazelo esiqondile emithonjeni enkulu yedatha-kwenza sikhulume ngokubuza okuhlukile kokucela okunamathiselwe, engikuchazile ngaphambili.
Umdwebo 3.16: Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Amakholi ocingweni avela enkampanini yocingo aguqulwa e-matrix ngomugqa owodwa kumuntu ngamunye nekholomu eyodwa yesici ngasinye (okungukuthi, okuguquguqukayo). Ngokulandelayo, abacwaningi bakhela imodeli yokufunda eqondisiwe ukubikezela izimpendulo zemibuzo evela kumatrix womuntu. Khona-ke, imodeli yokufunda eqondisiwe yayisetshenziselwa ukuphawula izimpendulo zemibuzo yocwaningo lwabantu abathengi abayizigidi ezingu-1.5. Futhi, abacwaningi bacatshangisa ukuthi indawo yokuhlala yokuhlala cishe yonke amakhasimende ayizigidi ezingu-1.5 ngokusekelwe ezindaweni zezingcingo zabo. Lapho lezi zilinganiso ezimbili-umcebo ocatshangelwayo kanye nendawo yokuhlala yokuhlala-kuhlanganisiwe, imiphumela yayifana nokulinganisa okuvela ku-Survey and Health Survey, inhlolovo yendabuko ejwayelekile yegolide (isibalo 3.17).
Umfanekiso 3.17: Imiphumela evela ku- Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Ezingeni ngalinye, abacwaningi bakwazi ukwenza umsebenzi onengqondo ekubikezelweni kwengcebo yomuntu kusuka kumarekhodi abo okubiza. Ukulinganiswa komnotho wesifunda esifundeni seRwanda ezingu-30-okwasekelwe ezilinganisweni zomuntu ngamunye wezomnotho nendawo yokuhlala-kwakufana nemiphumela evela kuSwaningo lwamaDemocratic and Health, ucwaningo lwendabuko olujwayelekile lwegolide. Ilandelwe kusuka ku- Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) , izibalo 1a no-3c.
Ekuphetheni, indlela yokucela i-Blumenstock yokukhulisa ehlanganisiwe ihlangene nedatha yokuhlola ngomthombo omkhulu wedatha ukukhiqiza izilinganiso ezifaniswa nalabo abavela kuhlolo olujwayelekile lwegolide. Lesi sibonelo sibuye sichaze ezinye zezokuhweba phakathi kokuphakanyiswa kokucela kanye nezindlela zokuhlola zendabuko. I-amplified yokucela izilinganiso yayisesikhathini esiphezulu, eshibhile kakhulu, futhi ngaphezulu kwe-granular. Kodwa, ngakolunye uhlangothi, akukabikho isisekelo esinamandla salolu hlobo lwe-amplified asking. Lesi sibonelo esisodwa asibonisi ukuthi lolu hlelo luzosebenza nini futhi lungeke lwenzeke, futhi abacwaningi abasebenzisa le ndlela badinga ukukhathazeka ngokukhethekile ngenxa yokungabikho kwemali okubangelwa ukuthi ubani ohlanganisiwe-futhi ongahlanganisiwe-kumthombo wabo wedatha enkulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, indlela yokubuza ephakanyisiwe ayinayo izindlela ezinhle zokulinganisa ukungaqiniseki ezungeze izilinganiso zayo. Ngenhlanhla, ukukhuliswa okukhulunywayo kucela ukuxhumana okujulile ezindaweni ezintathu ezinkulu ezibalo-ezincane-ukulinganisa endaweni (Rao and Molina 2015) , imputation (Rubin 2004) , kanye post-stratification-based model (okuyinto uqobo ngokuhlobene noMnu P., indlela engichazwe ekuqaleni esahlukweni) (Little 1993) . Ngenxa yalezi zixhumanisi ezijulile, ngilindele ukuthi izisekelo eziningi zokwenza ngcono ezibuzayo zizophuthukiswa maduzane.
Okokugcina, ukuqhathanisa imizamo yokuqala neyesibili ye-Blumenstock kubonisa nesifundo esibalulekile mayelana nocwaningo lwezenhlalakahle yobudala be-digital: ekuqaleni akuyona ukuphela. Yilokho, izikhathi eziningi, indlela yokuqala ngeke ibe yinto engcono kakhulu, kodwa uma abacwaningi beqhubeka besebenza, izinto zingaba ngcono. Ngokuvamile, uma uhlola izindlela ezintsha zokucwaninga kwezenhlalakahle eminyakeni yobudijithali, kubalulekile ukwenza izilinganiso ezimbili ezihlukene: (1) Lokhu kusebenza kahle kanjani manje? futhi (2) Lokhu kuzosebenza kanjani esikhathini esizayo njengoba isimo sezwe sishintsha futhi njengoba abacwaningi bethatha ukunakwa okwengeziwe? Nakuba abacwaningi baqeqeshwe ukwenza uhlobo lokuqala lokuhlola, okwesibili ngokuvamile kubaluleke kakhulu.
