key:
[ , ] Berinsky noogxa (2012) ikuhluza Mechanical Bonk ngokuyinxenye ngokuthi iziphinda iimvavanyo ezintathu classic. Enokuthabatha okubalaseleyo Asian Disease ndinibumbela ulingelo nge Tversky and Kahneman (1981) . Yenza iziphumo zakho kumdlalo Tversky and Kahneman ngayo? Yenza iziphumo zakho kumdlalo Berinsky kunye nabo? Yintoni-ukuba nantoni-oku kusifundisa ntoni usebenzisa Mechanical Bonk for imifuniselo phando?
[ , ] Xa into ulwimi-in-esidleleni iphepha osihloko sithi "Sitsala ukwahlukana," le ngengqondo zentlalo Robert Cialdini, omnye ababhali Schultz et al. (2007) , wabhala ukuba umhlala-phantsi emsebenzini wakhe unjingalwazi, ngokuyinxenye ngenxa mngeni awajamelana ukwenza imifuniselo endle kwindawo uqeqesho (bengqondo) ikakhulu uqhuba bekuhlolwa (Cialdini 2009) . Funda iphepha Cialdini, uze ubhale kuye email bembongoza ukuba ahlole yakhe yoqhawulo-phezulu ukukhanya bezinto ezinokuzuzwa eCebisayo lwedijithali. Sebenzisa imizekelo ezithile zophando ezijongene ezimkhathazayo.
[ ] Ukuze ubone ukuba ingaba impumelelo ezincinane lokuqala ukutshixa-okanye elingenakuguga, van de Rijt kunye nabalingane (2014) wangenelela kwizixokelelwano ezine ezahlukeneyo sikelelani Impumelelo nxaxheba randomly esikhethiweyo, uze Walinganisa iimpembelelo ixesha elide kweli impumelelo engaqondakaliyo. Ngaba zikho ezinye iindlela ezinokuthi apho ubaleka imifuniselo efanayo? Vavanya ezi nkqubo ngokubhekiselele kwimiba ixabiso lwenzululwazi, neyokuqungaqunga algorithmic (jonga iSahluko 2), kunye neendlela zokuziphatha.
[ , ] Iziphumo ulingelo unako kuxhomekeka nxaxheba. Yenza uphando uze luzakuyisebenzisa on Amazon Mechanical Bonk (MTurk) usebenzisa iindlela ezimbini ezahlukeneyo yokugaya. Zama ukukhetha iindlela zovavanyo kunye nokugaya ukuze iziphumo ziya kuba kwahluka kangangoko kunokwenzeka. Umzekelo, izicwangciso zakho yokugaya abe zokugaya nxaxheba kusasa nangokuhlwa okanye ukuba abuyekeze nxaxheba umvuzo ophezulu kunye eliphantsi. Ezi iintlobo umahluko qhinga yokugaya enokukhokelela kumadama ezahlukeneyo nxaxheba kunye neziphumo ezahlukeneyo zovavanyo. njani iziphumo zakho zabahambela njani ezahlukileyo? Ntoni ukuba ityhila ntoni eksperimenti ebalekayo MTurk?
[ , , , ] Masithi babeceba isifundo Emotional njengesifo (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) . Sebenzisa iziphumo ukusuka isifundo lokuqwalasela yi Kramer (2012) , ukuba isigqibo inani nxaxheba kwimeko nganye. Ezi zophononongo ezimbini musa twatse ngoko qiniseka ukuba udwelise ngokucacileyo zonke sinoluvo lokuba wenze:
[ , , , ] Phendula ngentla umbuzo, kodwa kunokuba usebenzisa isifundo lokuqwalasela yi Kramer (2012) ukusebenzisa iziphumo ukusuka ulingelo ngaphambili zendalo Coviello et al. (2014) .
[ ] Zombini Rijt et al. (2014) kunye Margetts et al. (2011) zombini enze amalinge ukuba ukufunda inkqubo yabantu basayine uxwebhu lwezikhalazo. Bathelekise kuyilo kunye neziphumo zezi zifundo.
[ ] Dwyer, Maki, and Rothman (2015) kuqhutywa iimvavanyo ezimbini endle ngolwalamano phakathi izithethe zentlalo kunye nokuziphatha proenvironmental. Apha Ntombikayise yenkohlakalo iphepha yabo;
"Ukuze inzululwazi ngokwasengqondweni kusetyenziswa njani ukukhuthaza ukuziphatha proenvironmental? Kwizifundo ezibini, ungenelelo ezijolise ekukhuthazeni amandla ukuziphatha ulondolozo lokuhlamba zikawonke bahlola kwiimpembelelo nemigangatho ezichazayo kunye noxanduva. KwiSifundo 1, imeko ukukhanya (oko kukuthi, ngomhla okanye off) eziphathwe phambi kokuba kungene umntu ukuba lokuhlambela karhulumente iindlela, bebonisa ngokwemimiselo athethayo esosicwangciso. Nxaxheba kunokwenzeka kakhulu ukuba izibane xa ke xa bangena. KwiSifundo 2, imeko eyongezelelweyo yaqukwa kwi apho udidi ngokucima ukukhanya labonakalisa Aram, kodwa nxaxheba abawuthobeli unoxanduva asisibeke on. uxanduva Personal amodareyithwe impembelelo izithethe zasekuhlaleni yokuziphatha; xa nxaxheba abazange inoxanduva ngokulayita ukukhanya, impembelelo nanjengokwesimo kwaye ninganciphi. Ezi ziphumo zibonisa njani izithethe kunye noxanduva elichazayo unokuyilawula ukusebenza ungenelelo proenvironmental. "
Funda iphepha zabo kwaye uyile phindana yokufunda 1.
[ , ] Ukwakha phezu kumbuzo ongasentla, ngoku ukwenza uyilo lwakho.
[ ] Kukhe kwakho ingxoxo enkulu mayela esebenzisa nxaxheba baqeshwa Amazon Mechanical Bonk. Ngaxeshanye, kuthe kwakhona ingxoxo enkulu mayela esebenzisa nxaxheba zifunwa kuluntu umfundi isidanga. Bhala memo enamaphepha-ezimbini ngokuthelekisa ethelekisa Turkers kunye undergraduates njengoko abaphandi nxaxheba. uthelekiso wakho kufuneka zibandakanye ingxoxo zombini imiba yenzululwazi amalungiselelo.
[ Incwadi] Jim Manzi xa ungalawulwa (2012) kukwazisa emangalisayo kungena amandla nokulinga kwishishini. Kwincwadi yena ayidlulisele eli bali:
"Ndandike kwintlanganiso kunye yingqondi ishishini oyinyaniso, noziqulathe-ezenziwe Billionaire owaba anzongonzongo, understating ongenantandabuzo kwamandla imifuniselo. inkampani yakhe wachitha imithombo ebalulekileyo ezama ukwenza imiboniso kwivenkile window kakhulu ukuba uza kutsala abathengi kunye nokunyuka kwiintengiso, njengobulumko eqhelekileyo bathi kufuneka. Iingcali kuvavanywa ngononophelo uyilo emva uyilo, kwaye iiseshoni zokuhlolwa uvavanyo ngamnye kwisithuba seminyaka waqhubeka ababonakalisi nefuthe nakuyo loyilo omtsha umboniso ngamnye kwiintengiso. Senior intengiso yempahla abalawuli wadibana ne-CEO ukuphonononga la iziphumo zovavanyo zezembali Toto. Emva ebonisa zonke iinkcukacha zonyango, baqonda ukuba ubulumko eqhelekileyo yaba imiboniso engalunganga-ukuba window kwiintengiso musa ukuqhuba. amanyathelo kwabo kucetyiswa ukunciphisa iindleko kunye neenzame kule ndawo. Oku kakhulu wabonisa amandla ukulinga ukuze sibhukuqe ubulumko eziqhelekileyo. impendulo CEO iye elula: aqukumbela wam kukuba abayili zenu kakuhle kakhulu. ' Isisombululo sakhe ukwandisa iinzame kuyilo kwivenkile umboniso, yaye ukuba abantu abatsha ukuyenza loo nto. " (Manzi 2012, 158–9)
Sesiphi uhlobo ngokusemthethweni na eziphathelelene CEO?
[ ] Ukwakha phezu kumbuzo ongasentla, cinga ukuba nawe entlanganisweni apho iziphumo yemifuniselo kwaxoxwa. Yiyiphi imibuzo emine ucela, enye uhlobo ngalunye semthethweni (manani, ukwakha, ngaphakathi, nangaphandle)?
[ ] Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) ufunda isiphumo kunyaka-ezisixhenxe ungenelelo zokonga amanzi ochazwe Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) (khangela Umfanekiso 4.10). Kweli phepha, Bernedo noogxa kwakhona kufuna ukuqonda indlela emva isiphumo ngokuthelekisa ngehambo lamakhaya yaye ziye ningashukunyiswa emva konyango owanikelwa. Oko kukuthi, kalukhuni, bazama ukubona ukuba ngaba unyango nefuthe ikhaya okanye yezindlu.
[ ] Xa olulandelayo ukuya Schultz et al. (2007) , Schultz kunye nabalingane enze uthotho experimenti ezintathu nefuthe kwezithethe echazayo injunctive kwi ukuziphatha eyahlukileyo yokusingqongileyo (itawuli kwakhona) kwiimeko ezimbini (ehotele kunye Condominium Timeshare) (Schultz, Khazian, and Zaleski 2008) .
[ ] Ukuphendula Schultz et al. (2007) , Canfield, Bruin, and Wong-Parodi (2016) wabaleka uthotho lab-ezifana imifuniselo ukufunda nokuyilwa iindleko zombane. Nantsi indlela zichaza bokoqobo:
"Xa lamava uphando-based, nxaxheba ngamnye wabona ityala lombane uqikelelo intsapho kunye nokusetyenziswa kakhulu kangako umbane, yokugubungela iinkcukacha malunga (a) ukusetyenziswa imbali, (b) uthelekiso kubamelwane, kunye (c) Ukusetyenziswa zembali kunye sombane yokuwa. Nxaxheba babona zonke iintlobo ulwazi enye ezintathu yeefomati kubandakanya (a) iitafile, (b) iigrafu bar, kunye (c) iigrafu icon. Senza ingxelo ngeziphumo eziphambili ezintathu. Okokuqala, abathengi kakuhle uhlobo ngalunye ulwazi umbane-ukusebenzisa eyona xa lwanikelwa itafile, iitafile mhlawumbi kuba lula ukufunda ingongoma elula. Okwesibini, ulwazi kunye neenjongo ukugcina umbane le ngamandla ukuba inkcazelo ukusetyenziswa imbali, elizimeleyo ifomathi. Okwesithathu, abantu kunye nokubhala amandla aphantsi kakuhle zonke iinkcukacha ngaphantsi. "
Ngokungafaniyo nezinye izifundo alandele-up, isiphumo eziphambili umdla Canfield, Bruin, and Wong-Parodi (2016) ingxelo ukuziphatha hayi indlela yokuziphatha. Ngawaphi amandla kunye nobuthathaka olu hlobo yokufunda kwinkqubo yophando ebanzi ekukhuthazeni ukonga umbane?
[ , ] Smith and Pell (2003) kukho satirical meta-Uhlalutyo lwamaphononongo ebonisa ukusebenza parachutes. Bagqiba:
"Njengokuba ngoncedo ezininzi yenzelwe ukuthintela impilo enkenenkene, ukusebenza parachutes khange phantsi novavanyo ngamandla ngokusebenzisa iimvavanyo alawulwayo. Ukulwela amayeza ezisekelwe kubungqina wayenokubagxeka ukwamkelwa zokungenelela zavavanywa ngokusebenzisa data kuphela lokuqwalasela. Sicinga ukuba wonke kungakuhle ukuba abo baphambili ezininzi ngokugqibeleleyo wamayeza esekelwe kubungqina ziwuququzelele bathatha inxaxheba iimfama kabini, olungenamkhethe, placebo, crossover ukuqotywa iparashute. "
Bhala op-ed efanelekileyo iphephandaba ukufunda ngokubanzi, njenge The New York Times, uphikisana fetishization ubungqina uvavanyo. Nika imizekelo, eziphathekayo. Icebiso: Bona, Bothwell et al. (2016) kunye Deaton (2010)
[ , , ] Umahluko-in-iiyantlukwano estimators ye nempembelelo unyango achaneke ngaphezu umahluko-in-kuthetha estimators. Bhala yimemo eya njengoononjineli ophethe uvavanyo A / B kwinkampani eendaba zentlalo start-up echaza ixabiso umahluko-in-iiyantlukwano indlela yokubaleka ulingelo online. Yimemo kufuneka ibandakanye ingxelo ingxaki, ezinye i ncebiso malunga iimeko apho umahluko-in-umahluko Estimator uya eyi umahluko-in-kuthetha Estimator, kwaye isifundo yokulinganisa elula.
[ , ] UGary Loveman yaba unjingalwazi School Business eHarvard phambi kokuba CEO Harrah, omnye iinkampani yekhasino inkulu ehlabathini. Xa wafudukela Harrah ngayo, Loveman baguqula lenkampani kunye nenkqubo rhoqo ukunyaniseka ukubhabha-njalo wawenza obungummangaliso data malunga nokuziphatha abathengi. Encotsheni yale nkqubo womlinganiselo usoloko-kwi, inkampani waqala experiments ibaleka. Umzekelo, ukuba agidime umfuniselo ukuvavanya ifuthe iphecana kwihotele busuku kubathengi kunye ipateni yokungcakaza ethile. Nantsi indlela Loveman wachaza ukubaluleka nokulinga kwizenzo ngemihla yoshishino Harrah esithi:
"Oku ngathi awufuni abaxhaphaza abafazi, nina musani ungebi, yaye umelwe ukuba neqela lolawulo. Le yenye yezinto ungaphulukana umsebenzi wakho kuba Harrah's-awusebenzisi iqela lolawulo. " (Manzi 2012, 146)
Bhala i-imeyile unguMqeshwa omtsha echaza ukuba kutheni Loveman ucinga ukuba kubalulekile ukuba iqela lolawulo. Kufuneka uzame ukubandakanya umzekelo-nokuba zeziyinyani okanye yenziwe-ukucacisa ingongoma yakho.
[ , ] Into entsha ijolise ukuqikelela isiphumo lokufumana izikhumbuzo umyalezo nokubhaliweyo ugonyo ndodla. kwiikliniki 150, nganye 600 ezigulane abafanelekileyo, bakulungele ukuthatha inxaxheba. Kukho kwindleko ezinzileyo zeerandi 100 kwiklinikhi nganye ufuna ukusebenza, kwaye iindleko 1 dollar ngomyalezo ngamnye yokubhaliweyo ofuna ukuthumela. Ngaphezu koko, na iiklinikhi ukuba ukusebenza uya umlinganiselo isiphumo (ukuba ngaba umntu ufumene ugonyo) simahla. Sicinge ukuba uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali 1000 eerandi.
[ , ] Ingxaki enkulu ngeengcamba ngekhompyutha basishiyayo; abafundi abaninzi ukuba baqalise izifundo ziphelela bengayanga-ngaphandle. Masithi ukusebenza kwiqonga yokufunda-intanethi, kunye designer eqongeni azidalileyo yokubona bar inkqubela ucinga kuzakukhusela abafundi abasuka wokuyeka lwekhosi. Ufuna ukuvavanya ifuthe ngenkqubela bar kwi abafundi kwikhondo elikhulu inzululwazi zentlalo bezibalo. Emva ukujongana nayiphi na imiba zemigaqo ezinokuvela kwalingwa, wena kunye noogxa bakho nexhala ukuba ikhosi akukho abafundi ngokwaneleyo ukubhaqa ethembekileyo imiphumo inkqubela bar. Kwi izibalo ngezantsi uyakwazi ukucinga ukuba isiqingatha abafundi baya kufumana bar inkqubela hafu. Ngaphezu koko, ungenza usenokucinga ukuba akukho kuphazamiseka. Ngamanye amazwi, uyakwazi ukucinga ukuba abathathi-nxaxheba achaphazelekayo kuphela ukuba bafumana unyango okanye ulawulo; azikho ngokonakalisayo enoba abanye abantu bafumana unyango okanye kolawulo (inkcazelo esesikweni engakumbi, funda Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 8). Nceda Àkuzigcinile naziphi nokucingela ezongeziweyo ukuba wenze.
[ , ] Kwiphepha ezithandekayo, Lewis and Rao (2015) Ngokomzekelo ngokucacileyo umda esisiseko zobalo experimenti nokuba oxandileyo. Eli phepha-leyo soqobo ibinaso isihloko inkanuko "On Near-nakwenzeka Ukubala uphindela Advertising" -shows kunzima kangakanani na umlinganiselo imbuyekezo kutyalo iintengiso intanethi, nokuba experiment digital ebandakanya izigidi abathengi. Okuninzi ngokubanzi, iphepha ubonisa ngokucacileyo ukuba kunzima ukuqikelela isiphumo amancinci unyango phakathi data isiphumo ingxolo. Okanye kuchazwe diffently, iphepha kubonisa ukuba iziphumo zonyango uqikelelo kuya kuba nokuthembeka ezinkulu xa ifuthe-to-eqhelekileyo unxaxho (\ (\ frac {\ bar Delta \ {y}} {\ kw} \)) ratio incinci. Isifundo esibalulekileyo ngokubanzi kweli phepha kukuba iziphumo niselo ngencinane impembelelo-to-eqhelekileyo unxaxho Umlinganiselo (umzekelo, lweROI amaphulo ad) iya kuba nelisi. Umngeni uya kuba ukubhala yimemo eya umntu kwisebe le ntengiso inkampani yakho evaluting kwelinge wayecebe umlinganiselo lweROI ye liphulo ad. iimemo wakho kufuneka zixhaswe iigrafu ngeziphumo ukulinganisa computer.
Nazi ezinye iinkcukacha siqalo onokuzifuna. Zonke ezi amaxabiso lwamanani bayafana yemifuniselo zokwenyani ingxelo Lewis and Rao (2015) :
LweROI, i obala engundoqo amaphulo ad intanethi, ichazwa ukuba ingeniso umnatha ukusuka iphulo (ingeniso epheleleyo esuka iindleko iphulo uthabatha yephulo) lahlulwe iindleko phulo. Umzekelo nephulo yayingabancedi kwiintengiso wayeza kuba lweROI ye -100% kunye nephulo apho inzuzo wayelingana iindleko wayeza kuba lweROI 0.
ekuthengiswa mean umthengi ngamnye $ 7 kunye nokungafani komgangatho $ 75.
iphulo kulindeleke ukuba ukwandisa Uk nge $ 0,35 ngumthengi ngalinye kufanekisela ukwanda kwingenelo $ 0,175 abathengi nganye. Ngamanye amazwi, le lomda yi-50%.
ubungakanani ecwangcisiweyo kwalingwa ngabantu 200,000, isiqingatha kwiqela lonyango kunye nesiqingatha kwiqela ulawulo.
iindleko phulo $ 0,14 nxaxheba ngamnye.
Bhala memo evaluting olu vavanyo. Ungacebisa ndimisele le ukucikideka njengoko bekucetyiwe? Ukuba kunjalo, kutheni? Ukuba akunjalo, ucebisa ukuba utshintsho?
Kwingxelo olungileyo ezakunceda kwimeko ethile; Kwingxelo elingcono uza iimeko kweli tyala ngendlela enye (umzekelo, bonisa njani utshintsho isigqibo ngumsebenzi ifuthe-to-eqhelekileyo unxaxho ratio); kwaye memo omkhulu uza kunikezela japan ngokubanzi ngokupheleleyo.
[ , ] Yenza okufanayo njengoko umbuzo elidlulileyo, kodwa kunokuba yokulinganisa kufuneka usebenzise iziphumo abahlalutyayo.
[ , , ] Yenza okufanayo njengoko umbuzo elidlulileyo, kodwa ukusebenzisa zombini yokulinganisa kunye neziphumo abahlalutyayo.
[ , , ] Cinga ukuba ezibhaliweyo yimemo ichazwe ngentla-ngokusebenzisa yokulinganisa, iziphumo abahlalutyayo, okanye zombini-yaye umntu kwisebe sentengiso incomela ukuba usebenzisa umahluko-in-iiyantlukwano Estimator kunokuba umahluko kwindlela Estimator (jonga kwiCandelo 4.6.2) . Bhala memo entsha elifutshane echaza indlela 0.4 unxulumano phakathi kwiintengiso phambi kwalingwa nentengiso emva ukucikideka uza ukutshintsha isigqibo sakho.
[ , ] Ukuze ukuvavanya ukusebenza kwenkonzo entsha amakhondo web-based, i-ofisi iinkonzo omsebenzi eyunivesithi yenze lwalawula ngokungenamkhethe phakathi kwabafundi 10,000 abangena unyaka wabo wokugqibela esikolweni. A yorhumo ivideo ulwazi log-in eyodwa wathunyelwa ngokusebenzisa isimemo email awodwa 5000 abafundi randomly ekhethiweyo, ngoxa omnye 5,000 abafundi kwiqela lolawulo kwaye musa ukuba ubulungu. kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinesibini emva koko, uphando follow-up (ngaphandle non-impendulo) ibonisa ukuba zombini unyango kunye nolawulo amaqela; 70% abafundi abaye yafumana zengqesho yexesha elizeleyo entsimini yabo abanyulwa (Itheyibhile 4.5). Ngoko, kubonakala ukuba inkonzo web-based nafuthe.
Nangona kunjalo, olukhaliphileyo Isazinzulu data kwiyunivesithi wajonga idata kancinane ngokusondeleyo ngakumbi wafumana ukuba-20% kuphela abafundi kwiqela kunyango wakha ayilogwanga kwi-akhawunti emva kokufumana email. Ngaphezu koko, elifuna Akumangalisi, phakathi kwabo baye loganga kwi website-60% kuphela Ndafumana umsebenzi wexesha elizeleyo entsimini yabo abanyulwa, leyo ngaphantsi umlinganiselo abantu abazange ungena kwaye ngaphantsi umlinganiselo abantu imeko yolawulo (Itheyibhile 4.6).
Icebiso: Lo mbuzo uya ngaphaya kumbandela kwesi sahluko, kodwa ikwaqwalasela nemiba eqhelekileyo imifuniselo. Olu hlobo kuyilo lokuvavanywa wambi ebizwa ngokuba kuyilo ukhuthazo kuba bayakhuthazwa nxaxheba ukuba nenxaxheba kulo unyango. Le ngxaki ngumzekelo oko kuthiwa omnye-eve ukungathobeli (bona Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 5)
[ ] Emva kokuphonononga, iba ukuba kwalingwa ochazwe umbuzo yangaphambili ezinzima. Kwacaca ukuba i-10% yabantu kwiqela lolawulo kuhlawulwa sokufikelela inkonzo, kwaye bagqibela kunye liqondo lengqesho-65% (Itheyibhile 4.7).
Icebiso: Lo mbuzo uya ngaphaya kumbandela kwesi sahluko, kodwa ikwaqwalasela nemiba eqhelekileyo imifuniselo. Le ngxaki ngumzekelo oko kubizwa-ezinamacala amabini ukungathobeli (bona Gerber and Green (2012) , Ch. 6)
iqela | ubungakanani | izinga lengqesho |
---|---|---|
ukufikelela elinikwe website | 5,000 | 70% |
Hayi imvume yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi | 5,000 | 70% |
iqela | ubungakanani | izinga lengqesho |
---|---|---|
Kuyavunywa yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi kwaye ukulogwa | 1,000 | 60% |
Kuyavunywa yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi bangaze Akangenanga | 4000 | 85% |
Hayi imvume yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi | 5,000 | 70% |
iqela | ubungakanani | izinga lengqesho |
---|---|---|
Kuyavunywa yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi kwaye ukulogwa | 1,000 | 60% |
Kuyavunywa yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi bangaze Akangenanga | 4000 | 72,5% |
Hayi imvume yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi baza kuba | 500 | 65% |
Hayi imvume yokufikelela kwiwebhsayithi yaye akazange ukuhlawula kuba | 4,500 | 70,56% |