4.4.1 Ukuba semthethweni
Ukungqinisiseka kuthetha ukuba iziphumo ulingelo ukuxhasa kwisigqibo jikelele.
Akukho ulingelo ugqibelele, yaye Abaphandi baye isigama esityebileyo ukuchaza iingxaki kunokwenzeka. Ukusebenza kubhekisa kwiindlela apho iziphumo zovavanyo ethile ukuxhasa isigqibo ezithile jikelele. Ntle baye bafumana kuluncedo sokusasaza semthethweni ngeentlobo ezine eziphambili: manani kwisigqibo ikuhlole, ukunyaniseka zangaphakathi, ukwakha ikuhlole, nokunyaniseka wangaphandle (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, Ch 2) . Ekufikeleleni ezi ngongoma ziya sikubonelele luhlu ngqondweni critiquing nokuphucula uyilo uhlalutyo ulingelo, yaye oko kuya kukunceda ukunxibelelana nabanye abaphandi.
Amaziko Statistical isigqibo ngokusemthethweni malunga nokuba ingaba Ngohlalutyo lwamanani kwalingwa lwenziwe ngokuchanekileyo. Kwimeko Schultz et al. (2007) Umbuzo esinjalo lugxile ukuba ukubalwa zabo p-values ngokuchanekileyo. Uhlalutyo ngokwezobalo ngaphaya umda kule ncwadi, kodwa ndingatsho ukuba imigaqo zamanani ezifunekayo ukuyila nokuhlalutya imifuniselo awuyitshintshanga kwi kweminyaka yesuntswana. Noko ke, imeko ezahlukeneyo data kwi amalinge digital kudala amathuba manani amatsha (umzekelo, usebenzisa iindlela umatshini yokufunda ukuqikelela ukungafani ye iziphumo zonyango (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) ) kunye nemingeni emitsha bezibalo (umzekelo, kublokha amalinge enkulu (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) ).
Amaziko semthethweni ngaphakathi malunga nokuba ingaba iinkqubo zovavanyo zenziwa ngokuchanekileyo. Sibuyela ukucikideka Schultz et al. (2007) , imibuzo malunga semthethweni zangaphakathi lugxile jikelele engakhethiyo, ukuhanjiswa unyango, zomlinganiselo kweziphumo. Umzekelo, unokuba nexhala lokuba abancedisi uphando akazange ukufunda iimitha zombane ngokuthembekileyo. Enyanisweni, Schultz kunye nabalingane Ayehlutshwa ngale ngxaki yaye baba isampulu iimitha ukufunda kabini; Ngethamsanqa, iziphumo ngokuyimfuneko twatse. Ngokubanzi, Schultz ukhe noogxa 'kubonakala ukuba ikuhlole lwangaphakathi, kodwa oku akusoloko kunjalo; intsimi ezintsonkothileyo imifuniselo online iphelelwe zibe iingxaki okunene ukuhambisa unyango ilungelo abantu ekunene kwaye yokulinganisa iziphumo wonke. Ngethamsanqa, ubudala yedijithal ukunceda ukunciphisa iinkxalabo malunga semthethweni ngaphakathi kuba loo nto yenza ukuba kube lula ukuqinisekisa ukuba unyango unikelwa njengoko yenzelwe abo ebekumele ukuba balamkele kwaye ukulinganisa iziphumo kubo bonke abathathi-nxaxheba.
Ukwakha amaziko semthethweni ehlabathini umdlalo phakathi data kwaye olwakha theoretical. Njengoko kuchaziwe kwiSahluko 2, zilungiso aqonde ukuba izazinzulu zentlalo sizathu. Ngelishwa, la magama abstract musa kusoloko iinkcazelo ecacileyo kunye nemilinganiselo. Ukubuyela Schultz et al. (2007) , ibango ukuba injunctive izithethe zentlalo zinokuwehlisa ukusetyenziswa kombane ifuna abaphandi ukuba bayile unyango eyayiza ukwqhatha "izithethe zentlalo injunctive '(umzekelo, i emoticon) kunye ukulinganisa" ukusetyenziswa kombane ". Xa amalinge analog, abaphandi abaninzi eyenzelwe unyango zabo walinganisa neziphumo zazo. Le ndlela iqinisekisa ukuba, kangangoko kunokwenzeka, yemifuniselo ukungqinelana lusaphononongwa olwakha ezingabonakaliyo. Kwi imifuniselo digital apho abaphandi iqabane neenkampani okanye oorhulumente ukunikezela unyango kwaye usebenzise usoloko-kwiinkqubo data ukulinganisa iziphumo, umdlalo phakathi zolingelo yaye olwakha theoretical kunokuba ngaphantsi nkqi. Ngenxa yoko, mna silindele ukuba kokuyilwayo wihi uya kuthanda ukuba yinkxalabo enkulu kwi amalinge digital ngaphezu imifuniselo analog.
Okokugqibela, amaziko semthethweni yangaphandle malunga nokuba ingaba iziphumo zolu vavanyo kuya iimeko kwezinye iimeko. Ukubuyela Schultz et al. (2007) , umntu unokubuza, aba bantu ingcamango-ngokubonelela ngolwazi efanayo malunga benzisa umbane ngokungqamanisa noontanga babo umqondiso nemigangatho injunctive (umzekelo, i emoticon) nokusetyenziswa kwamandla -reduce ukuba oko kwenziwe ngendlela ezahlukeneyo kwenye indawo? Kuba kakuhle luyilwe kakuhle ulawulwa imifuniselo, iinkxalabo malunga nokusebenza lwangaphandle ngabona ukulungisa. Kwixesha elidlulileyo, ezi nokuxambulisana semthethweni yangaphandle Kwakusoloko nje iqela labantu ehleli egumbini uzama ukucinga ukuba ngekwenzeka ntoni ukuba iinkqubo zenziwa ngendlela eyahlukileyo, okanye kwindawo eyahlukileyo, okanye abantu ezahlukeneyo. Ngethamsanqa, ubudala yedijithali lwenza abaphandi ukuba zizame ukwenza ngaphezu kwezi ezilufuniso data-free nokuvavanya semthethweni zangaphandle empirically.
Kuba neziphumo Schultz et al. (2007) aye umdla kangaka, inkampani egama Opower yasebenzisana eziluncedo eUnited States ukuba lusasaze unyango ngokubanzi. Ngokusekelwe uyilo Schultz et al. (2007) , Opower uyadalwa yokwemfuneko Iingxelo Energy Ekhaya aba iimodyuli ezimbini, enye ebonisa ukusetyenziswa kombane isalamane wekhaya kubamelwane yayo ibe emoticon omnye nokunika iingcebiso ngokuhlisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla (Figure 4.6). Emva koko, libambisene kunye nabaphandi, Opower lwaphaphatheka olungenamkhethe imifuniselo elawulwayo ukuvavanya ifuthe Ekhaya Energy Iingxelo. Nangona unyango kwezi mvavanyo ayephawulwa kusiwa emzimbeni-ngokuqhelekileyo ubudala njengenkumba lixesha iposi-isiphumo lalibalwa usebenzisa izixhobo ezisebenza ngekhompyutha ehlabathini ngokwasemzimbeni (umzekelo, iimitha zombane). Kunokuba ngesandla zokuqokelela olu lwazi kunye nabancedisi zophando ukutyelela indlu nganye, yemifuniselo Opower zonke kwenziwa ngokubambisana kunye neenkampani amandla ngolunceda abaphandi ukufikelela ufundo amandla. Ngoko ke, ezi mvavanyo intsimi ngokuyinxenye digital elibinzayo ngenzinga kakhulu ngexabiso eliphantsi yomahluko.
Isazobe 4.6: Ikhaya Energy Iingxelo Allcott (2011) yaba Social Uthelekiso Module kunye Amanyathelo Action Module.
Xa iseti lokuqala experimenti ebandakanya amakhaya 600,000 bakhonza ziinkampani eluncedo 10 ngeenxa eUnited States, Allcott (2011) Simfumene Ekhaya Energy Report wathoba ukusetyenziswa kombane nge 1.7%. Ngamanye amazwi, iziphumo ezivela kuphononongo omkhulu, ngakumbi kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo efanayo ngokomgangatho kwiziphumo ukusuka Schultz et al. (2007) . Kodwa ke, ubukhulu isiphumo bebebambalwa: in Schultz et al. (2007) Kwimizi ngokwemimiselo kwimeko ezichazayo injective (lowo kunye emoticon) lincitshiswe umbane wabo 5%. Isizathu ngqo ukulungiselela lo mahluko ayaziwa, kodwa Allcott (2011) ucingela ukuba kokufumana emoticon ngesandla njengenxalenye isifundo oxhaswa eyunivesithi ukuze kuba nefuthe elikhulu kwindlela yokuziphatha ngaphandle kokufumana emoticon eprintiweyo njengenxalenye ingxelo ubunzima eveliswa ukusuka inkampani amandla.
Ngaphezu koko, uphando ezilandelayo, Allcott (2015) ingxelo kwi-eksperimenti 101 olongezelelweyo ezibandakanya amakhaya abazizigidi 8. Kwezi mvavanyo 101 elandelayo Ekhaya Energy Report waqhubeka ngokubalibazisa na abantu ukuba kuthoba losetyenziso lombane, kodwa iziphumo nabo ezincinci. Isizathu ngqo le sokwaliwa ayaziwa, kodwa Allcott (2015) ucingela ukuba ukusebenza ingxelo wabonakala obehlayo ngokuhamba kwexesha kuba eneneni isicelo iintlobo ezahlukeneyo nxaxheba. Ngokucace kakhulu, eziluncedo kwiindawo ezininzi bume ekwakunokulindeleka nesimo kwinkqubo yangaphambili nabathengi yabo zikwazi unyango. Njengoko eziluncedo kunye nabathengi ngaphantsi yokusingqongileyo lamkela inkqubo, ukusebenza kwayo wabonakala ukuhla. Ngoko ke, kanye njengoko engakhethiyo kwi imifuniselo kuqinisekisa ukuba iqela unyango kunye nolawulo ziyafana, engakhethiyo kwiziza uphando kuqinisekisa ukuba uqikelelo unako ukusebenza jikelele ukusuka kwiqela elinye nxaxheba kwi kwabemi jikelele (cinga emva kwiSahluko 3 malunga isampulu). Ukuba iindawo zophando isampula ngokungakhethiyo, ngoko gabalala-nkqu eyaqulunqwa ngokugqibeleleyo kwaye ziqhutywe lingelo unokuba yingxaki.
Kunye, ezi 111 eksperimenti-10 Allcott (2011) kunye no 101 Allcott (2015) isihlwele amakhaya malunga 8.5 million evela lonke eUnited States. Baya gqolo zibonisa ukuba iiNgxelo Ekhaya Energy kunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kombane avareji, isiphumo exhasa iziphumo zantlandlolo Schultz kunye noogxa kumakhaya 300 California. Beyond nje iziphinda iziphumo yantlandlolo, yemifuniselo follow-up akwabonisa ukuba ubungakanani isiphumo iyahluka ngokweendawo. Le iseti experimenti nayo ibonisa iingongoma ezimbini ngokubanzi malunga eksperimenti endle ngokuyinxenye yesuntswana. Okokuqala, abaphandi baya kuba nako empirically idilesi iinkxalabo malunga nokusebenza yangaphandle xa iindleko experimenti ukubaleka lisezantsi, kwaye oku kungenziwa ukuba isiphumo sele ngokuphakama usoloko-on data kwinkqubo. Ngoko ke, icebisa ukuba uphando kufuneka abe inkangeleko-ngenxa neminye imikhwa umdla yaye kubalulekile ukuba sele zibhalisiwe, uze uyile imifuniselo phezulu kwalo iziseko yokulinganisa ezikhoyo. Okwesibini, le iseti experimenti isikhumbuza ukuba eksperimenti endle edanyazayo nje intanethi; isanda Ndilindele ukuba baya kuba kwiindawo neziphumo ezininzi kulinganiswa abenzi boluvo kwi kokusingqongileyo kwakhiwa.
Iintlobo ezine semthethweni-manani kwisigqibo ikuhlole, ukunyaniseka zangaphakathi, ukwakha ikuhlole, ukunyaniseka-ukubonelela lwangaphandle uluhlu ingqondo ukunceda abaphandi bahlole ukuba ngaba iziphumo kwi kwelinge ethile ukuxhasa kwisigqibo jikelele. Kuthelekiswa imifuniselo ubudala analog, kwi amalinge ubudala yedijithali kufuneka kube lula ukulungisa ikuhlole zangaphandle empirically kwaye kufuneka kube lula ukuqinisekisa ukuba semthethweni ngaphakathi. Kwelinye icala, nemiba kokuyilwayo ngokusemthethweni mhlawumbi kuya kuba nzima ngakumbi imifuniselo ubudala digital (nakuba akunjalo yemifuniselo Opower).
