4.4.2 ukungafani iziphumo zonyango

Ilinga ngokuqhelekileyo umlinganiselo isiphumo avareji, kodwa isiphumo kunokuba ezahlukeneyo kubantu abahlukeneyo.

Ingcamango isitshixo sesibini zokuhamba ngaphaya eksperimenti elula na ukungafani ye iziphumo zonyango. Ukucikideka Schultz et al. (2007) ngamandla ubonisa njani unyango efanayo kunokuba iziphumo ezahlukeneyo iintlobo ezahlukeneyo zabantu (Figure 4.4), kodwa uhlalutyo ukungafani okunene Kwakuyinto engaqhelekanga ukuze ulingelo analog ubudala. Uninzi imifuniselo ubudala analog zibandakanya inani elincinane nxaxheba ukuba iphathwa njenge "widgets" okanye isivisa kuba encinane ngazo yaziwa pre-unyango. Noko ke, amalinge digital, ezi zithintelo data zixhaphakile ngaphantsi kuba abaphandi zidla nxaxheba yaye wazi ngakumbi kubo. Kule meko data ezahlukeneyo, sinako ukuqikelela ukungafani ye iziphumo zonyango ukuze thupha ngendlela osebenza unyango, nokuba ingaphuculwa njani na, nendlela kuthagethwa ukuze abo kakhulu ukuba baxhamle.

imizekelo emibini ukungafani nemiphumo unyango ngokwemeko izithethe zoluntu kunye nokusetyenziswa amandla asuka kuphando olongezelelweyo kwi eKhaya Energy Iingxelo. Okokuqala, Allcott (2011) basebenzisa ubukhulu isampulu enkulu (amakhaya 600,000) yokwahlula ngakumbi lwesampulu kwaye kuqikelelwe isiphumo Ekhaya Energy Ingxelo decile bokusetyenziswa amandla pre-unyango. Nangona Schultz et al. (2007) bafumanisa umahluko phakathi abasebenzisi inzima no ilula, Allcott (2011) bafumanisa ukuba naye ayengaboni ngaphakathi kwiqela lomsebenzisi inzima no ilula. Umzekelo, abasebenzisi uhlaselo (abo decile phezulu) lincitshiswe benzisa umbane kabini kangangoko umntu phakathi leqela lomsebenzisi enzima (Figure 4.7). Ngaphezu koko, ukuqikelela isiphumo yokuziphatha pre-unyango Kwakhona yabonisa ukuba kukho na isiphumo boomerang nkqu abasebenzisi ilula (Figure 4.7).

Isazobe 4.7: ukungafani wemiphumela unyango Allcott (2011) . Ukwehla ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ezahlukileyo ukuze abantu deciles ezahlukeneyo nokusetyenziswa lokwandlalela.

Kuphononongo ezinxulumene, Costa and Kahn (2013) ucingela ukuba ukusebenza Ikhaya Energy Ingxelo kusenokwahlukana ezisekelwe kwiimbono inxaxheba kwezopolitiko ukuba unyango ukuze abenze abantu iingcamango ezithile ukwandisa ukusetyenziswa kombane yabo. Ngamanye amazwi, ukuba ucingela ukuba Ekhaya Energy Iingxelo ukuze ngokudala isiphumo boomerang kwabanye iindidi zabantu. Ukuhlola oku kungenzeka, Costa kunye Kahn lahlangana data Opower idatha obuthengiweyo njengesiqhelisi wesithathu-iqela eziqulethe ulwazi ezifana yobhaliso lezopolitiko, amalizo kwimibutho okusingqongileyo, kunye nokuthatha inxaxheba nendlu kwiinkqubo zokusebenzisa amandla. Ngesi dataset edityanisiweyo, Costa kunye Kahn wafumanisa ukuba Ekhaya Energy Iingxelo yavelisa iziphumo ngokubanzi efanayo nxaxheba kunye iingcamango ezahlukeneyo; kwakungekho bungqina bokuba naliphi iqela libonise iziphumo boomerang (Figure 4.8).

Isazobe 4.8: ukungafani wemiphumela unyango Costa and Kahn (2013) . Isiphumo unyango Kuqikelelwa avareji lonke ibinza -2,1% [-1,5%, -2,7%]. Ngokudibanisa iinkcukacha ezivela ukucikideka ulwazi malunga amakhaya, Costa and Kahn (2013) wasebenzisa uthotho imifuziselo manani ukuqikelela isiphumo unyango ukwenzela amaqela athile kunene abantu. Uqikelelo ezimbini ibekelwe ukuba iqela ngalinye kuba uqikelelo zixhomekeke covariates baliquka abakwimizekelo zabo manani (bona bayamanise 4 imodeli 6 Uluhlu 3 Uluhlu 4 Costa and Kahn (2013) ). Njengoko lo mzekelo ubonisa, iziphumo zonyango zinokuba nomahluko abantu ezahlukeneyo kwaye uqikelelo iziphumo zonyango ezivela imifuziselo manani uyakwazi kuxhomekeka kwiinkcukacha ezo imifuziselo (Grimmer, Messing, and Westwood 2014) .

Njengokuba le mizekelo mibini ibonisa, kwisigaba yesuntswana, siya ungahambisa ukusuka ukuqikelela iziphumo zonyango avareji nokuqikela ukungafani wemiphumela unyango ngenxa sinokuba nxaxheba abaninzi yaye sazi ngakumbi ngezo nxaxheba. Ukufunda ukungafani we iziphumo zonyango Ungenza ezijolise zonyango apho liyingcwele olusebenzayo, ukubonelela izibakala ukukhuthaza uphuhliso entsha ngcamango, nokunika iingcebiso malunga njengendlela kunokwenzeka, isihloko ukuba ngoku ukujika leyo.