4.4.1 Ukuba semthethweni

Ukungqinisiseka kuthetha ukuba iziphumo ulingelo ukuxhasa kwisigqibo jikelele.

Akukho luvavanyo olugqibeleleyo, kwaye abaphandi baye bahlaziya isigama esinzulu ukuchaza iingxaki ezinokwenzeka. Ukuqinisekiswa kubhekisela kumlinganiselo apho iziphumo zentshutshiso ethile zixhasa ezinye izigqibo. Iingcali zenzululwazi ziye zafumanisa kukunceda ukwahlula ukuqinisekiswa kwiintlobo ezine eziphambili: ukugqibezela izibalo, ukuqinisekiswa kwangaphakathi, ukwakha ukuqinisekiswa, kunye nokusebenza kwangaphandle (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, chap. 2) . Ukufunda ezi ngcamango kuza kukunika uluhlu lokuhlola uphando lokuhlaziya nokuphucula ukucwangciswa nokuhlaziywa kovavanyo, kwaye kuya kukunceda uqhagamshelane nabanye abaphandi.

Amaziko okuqinisekisa ukugqiba isitekthi malunga nokuba uhlalutyo lwamanani ovavanyo luyenziwe ngokuchanekileyo. Kwiimeko Schultz et al. (2007) , umbuzo onjalo unokubangela ukuba ngaba babala i \(p\) -imilinganiselo ngokuchanekileyo. Imigangatho yemilinganiselo kufuneka idibanise kwaye ihlalutye iimvavanyo zingaphaya kwelo phepha, kodwa azizange zitshintshe ngokusisiseko kwiminyaka yobudijithali. Yintoni eye yatshintsha, nangona kunjalo, ukuba indawo yolwazi kwiimvavanyo zedijithali yenze amathuba amatsha afana nokusebenzisa iindlela zokufunda ngomatshini ukuqikelela ukuchithwa kwe-hterogeneity yemiphumo yonyango (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) .

Amagunya okusebenza ngaphakathi ngaphakathi malunga nokuba iinkqubo zokulinga zenziwa ngokuchanekileyo. Ukubuyela kwi- Schultz et al. (2007) , imibuzo malunga nokusebenza kwangaphakathi inokuthi isebenze ngeenxa zonke, ukunikezelwa unyango kunye nokulinganisa iziphumo. Ngokomzekelo, unokhathazeka ukuba abancedisi bokuphanda abazange bafunde iimitha zombane ngokuthembekileyo. Enyanisweni, u-Schultz kunye noogxa baxhalabele ngale ngxaki, kwaye babe nesampuli yamamitha ukufunda kabini; Ngenhlanhla, iziphumo zazifana ngokufanayo. Ngokubanzi, uvavanyo lukaSchultz kunye noogxa bezakwabo lubonakala lusebenza ngokusemgangathweni oluphezulu, kodwa oku akunjalo ngaso sonke isikhathi: intsimi enzima kunye novavanyo lwe-intanethi zihlala zihlala ezinengxaki ngokwenene zihambisa unyango olufanelekileyo kubantu abalungileyo kunye nokulinganisa iziphumo kubo bonke abantu. Ngethamsanqa, i-digital age ingakunceda ukunciphisa ukukhathazeka malunga nokusebenza kwangaphakathi kuba ngoku kulula ukuqinisekisa ukuba unyango luya kubanikezelwa ukuba bafumane kwaye balinganise iziphumo kubo bonke abathathi-nxaxheba.

Yakha amaziko ochanekileyo malunga nomdlalo phakathi kwedatha kunye nokwakhiwa kwezinto. Njengoko kuthethwe kwisahluko sesi-2, ukwakha iimbono ezingenangqiqo ezinokuthi iingcali zentlalo ziqiqa ngazo. Ngelishwa, ezi ngcamango ezingabonakaliyo zisoloko zineenkcazo ezicacileyo kunye nemilinganiselo. Ukubuyela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) , ibango lokuba imigangatho yezenzo zentlalo inganciphisa ukusetyenziswa kombane kufuna abaphandi ukuba baqulunqe unyango oluya kubangela "imimiselo yoluntu" (umz., I-emoticon) kunye nokulinganisa "ukusetyenziswa kombane". Kwiimvavanyo ze-analog, abaphandi abaninzi benza iipilisi zabo kwaye bavavanya iziphumo zabo. Le ndlela iqinisekisa ukuba, ngokusemandleni onke, iimvavanyo zidibanisa ukwakha okungabonakaliyo. Kwiimvavanyo zedijithali apho abaphandi badibanisa neenkampani okanye oorhulumente ukuba banikeze unyango kwaye basebenzise rhoqo kwiinkcukacha zedatha ukulinganisa iziphumo, umdlalo phakathi kokulinga kunye nokwakhiwa kweengxelo kunokuba nzima. Ngaloo ndlela, ndilindele ukuba ukwakhiwa okuqinisekileyo kuya kuba yinkxalabo enkulu kwiimvavanyo zedijithali kunezovavanyo ze-analog.

Ekugqibeleni, ukuqinisekiswa kwangaphandle kubandakanya ukuba iziphumo zolu vavanyo zingenziwa kwezinye iimeko. Ukubuyela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) , umntu unokubuza ukuba ngaba le ngcamango efanayo-ukubonelela abantu ngolwazi malunga nokusetyenziswa kwamandla ngobudlelwane kunye noontanga lwabo kunye nesiginci seemimiselo ezingamanga (umz., I-emoticon) -nokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla ukuba kwenziwe ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo kwindawo ehlukile. Kwizinto ezininzi ezilungiselelwe kakuhle kunye nokuqhuba kakuhle, ukuxhalabisa malunga nokusebenza kwangaphandle yinto enzima ukujongana nayo. Kwixesha elidlulileyo, ezi mpikiswano malunga nokusebenza kwangaphandle azibandakanyekanga ngaphandle kweqela labantu abahleli egumbini bezama ukucinga ukuba bekuya kwenzeka ntoni ukuba iinkqubo zenziwe ngendlela eyahlukileyo, okanye kwindawo eyahlukileyo . Ngenhlanhla, iminyaka yobudala yenza ukuba abaphandi bahambe ngaphaya kwezi ngcamango ezingenasidatha kwaye bavavanye ukuqinisekiswa kwangaphandle ngokwemigaqo.

Ngenxa yeziphumo ezivela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) yayinomdla kakhulu, inkampani ebizwa ngokuba yi-Opower idibanisene nezibonelelo zaseUnited States ukuhambisa unyango ngokubanzi. Ngokusekelwe kuyilo Schultz et al. (2007) , i-Opower yenziwe iImpower Energy Reports ezenziwe ngamanqaku athile: enye ibonisa ukusetyenziswa kombane ngokumalunga nabamelwane bayo kunye ne-emoticon kwaye enye inikeza iingcebiso zokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla (umhlathi 4.6). Emva koko, ngokubambisana nabaphandi, i-Opower yaqhuba ukuhlolwa okungalawulwa ngokungahleliweyo ukuvavanya impembelelo yeeNgxelo zeMandla eKhaya. Nangona unyango lwalolu vavanyo lwalugcinwa ngokusemzimbeni-ngokuqhelekileyo ngokusebenzisa i-mail yenkokodala endala-isiphumo saqalwa ngokusebenzisa amadivaysi yedijithali kwihlabathi lomzimba (umz., Amandla amitha). Ngaphezulu, kunokuba uqokelele ngolwazi ngolwazi ngokucebisa abaphandelelweyo kwindlu nganye, ii-Opower experiments zenziwa ngokubambisana neenkampani zamandla ezenza abaphandi bakwazi ukufikelela kumandla okufunda. Ngaloo ndlela, le mvavanyo yenzalo yedijithali yayiqhutywe kwisikali esikhulu kwiindleko eziguquguqukayo eziphantsi.

Umzobo 4.6: IiNgxelo zeMandla zeKhaya zineModyuli yoLuntu lweNtlalo kunye neModyuli yokuSebenza. Allcott (2011) ngemvume evela ku- Allcott (2011) , amanani 1 no-2.

Kwinqanaba lokuqala lovavanyo olubandakanya imizi engama-600 000 ukusuka kwiindawo ezili-10 ezahlukeneyo, u- Allcott (2011) wathola ukuba i-Home Energy Report yanciphisa ukusetshenziswa kombane. Ngamanye amazwi, iziphumo ezivela kummandla omkhulu, ukuhlalutya ngokubanzi kwimihlaba ezahlukahlukeneyo zifana neempendulo ezifana neziphumo ezivela ku- Schultz et al. (2007) . Ukuqhubela phambili, kuphando olulandelayo olubandakanya amakhaya ayisibhozo ezongezelelweyo ezivela kwiindawo ezili-101 ezihlukeneyo, u- Allcott (2015) waphinde wafumanisa ukuba i-Home Energy Report ihlala isinciphisa ukusetyenziswa kombane. Isicwangciso esiphezulu sezilingo sichaza nomzekelo omtsha onomdla ongeke ubonakale kunoma yimuphi umzamo omnye: ubungakanani befuthe lwenqatshelwe kwiimvavanyo zangaphambili (umzekeliso 4.7). Allcott (2015) wacacise ukuba ukuhla kwehla kwenzeka ngenxa yokuba, ngokugqithiseleyo kwexesha, unyango luye lwasetyenziswa kwiintlobo ezahlukeneyo zabathathi-nxaxheba. Ngokukodwa, iinkonzo kunye nabaxhasi abanokugxininiswa kwimeko engqongileyo bebanokuyifumana inkqubo ngaphambili, kwaye abathengi babo babephendule ngakumbi kunyango. Njengoko iinkonzo ezinobuncinci abaxhasi bezemvelo zithatha inkqubo, ukusebenza kwayo kubonakala kuncipha. Ngaloo ndlela, njengokuba uhlalutyo lwamalinge okuqinisekisa ukuba unyango kunye neqela lokulawula lifana, ukuhlaziywa kwimihlaba yocwaningo kuqinisekisa ukuba uqikelelo luya kubakho kwiqela elinye labathathi-nxaxheba ukuya kubantu abaqhelekileyo (cinga kwakhona kwisahluko 3 malunga nokusampula). Ukuba amaziko okuphanda awathathi sampulu ngandlela-thile, ngoko ke ukuveliswa-kwimihla yokuhlola eyenziwe ngokugqibeleleyo-ingaba yingxaki.

Umzobo 4.7: Iziphumo ze-111 iimvavanyo ezivavanya umphumo weNgxelo yeMandla eNkcitho ekusebenziseni umbane. Kwiindawo apho inkqubo yamukelwa khona kamva, kwakunokuba nemiphumo encinci. Allcott (2015) uxelela ukuba umthombo omkhulu walo mzekelo kukuba loo Allcott (2015) inkqubo ngaphambili. Ukutshintshwa kwi- Allcott (2015) , isiqendu 3.

Ngokubambisana, ezi zi-111 iimvavanyo-10 ku- Allcott (2011) kunye no-101 e- Allcott (2015) -izigidi ezi-8.5 zezindlu ezivela kulo lonke elaseUnited States. Zihlala zibonisa ukuba iiNgxelo zeMandla eKhaya zinciphisa ukusetyenziswa kombane osemgangathweni, umphumo oxhasa iziphumo zokuqala zikaSchultz kunye noogxa abavela kumakhaya angama-300 eCalifornia. Ngaphandle kokuphinda uphinde uchaze ezi ziphumo zephondo, iimvavanyo zokulandelela zibonisa ukuba ubungakanani befuthe buhluka ngendawo. Le setethi yokulinga iphinda ibonise amanqaku amabini aqhelekileyo malunga nokuhlolwa kwenzalo ye-digital. Okokuqala, abaphandi baya kukwazi ukujongana neengxaki malunga nokusebenza kwangaphandle xa iindleko zokuqhuba iimvavanyo ziphantsi, kwaye oku kuyenzeka ukuba isiphumo sele silinganiselwe yinkqubo yedatha esoloko. Ngako oko, kubonisa ukuba abaphandi bafanele bajonge ezinye iindlela zokuthakazelisa nezibalulekileyo ezirekhodwayo, kwaye zize ziyile iimvavanyo eziphezulu kweso sakhiwo sokulinganisa esele sikhona. Okwesibini, eli setha leemvavanyo lisikhumbuza ukuba iimvavanyo zentsimi ye-digital ayikho nje kwi-inthanethi; ngokunyuka, ndikulindele ukuba baya kuba kunye neziphumo ezininzi ezilinganiswe ngabavoki kwimeko eyakhelwe.

Iintlobo ezine zesigqibo sokuqinisekisa-ukuqinisekisa, ukungqinelana kwangaphakathi, ukwakha ukuqinisekiswa, kunye nokusebenza kwangaphandle-kunika uluhlu lokutshekisha ngokwengqondo ukunceda abaphandi bahlole ukuba iziphumo ezivela kumzamo othile zixhasa isiqhelo esipheleleyo. Xa kuthelekiswa nokuhlolwa kwe-analog-age, kwiimvavanyo zamanqaku edijithali, kufuneka kube lula ukujongana nokusebenza kwangaphandle ngokwemigaqo, kwaye kufuneka kube lula ukuqinisekisa ukuqinisekisa kwangaphakathi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, imiba ekwakheni ukuqinisekiswa kuya kuba nzima nakakhulu kwiimvavanyo zamanqaku ezidijithali, ngokukodwa ukuhlola kwimihlaba yedijithali ebandakanya intsebenziswano kunye nenkampani.