4.4.2 ukungafani iziphumo zonyango

Iingcamango zivame ukulinganisa umphumo wesilinganiso, kodwa umphumo mhlawumbi awufani omnye wonke umntu.

Iingcamango zesibini ezibalulekileyo zokuhamba ngaphaya kwezilingo ezilula zi- heterogeneity zempatho zonyango . Uvavanyo Schultz et al. (2007) ibonisa ngokucacileyo ukuba unyango olufanayo lunokuchaphazela njani iintlobo ezahlukeneyo zabantu (umfanekiso 4.4). Nangona uphando oluninzi lwe-analog, nangona kunjalo, abaphandi bajolise kwimiphumo yonyango engundoqo kuba kukho inani elincinci labathathi-nxaxheba kunye nolwazi oluncinane lwaziwa ngabo. Kwiimvavanyo zedijithali, nangona kunjalo, kubakho abaninzi abathathi-nxaxheba kwaye abaninzi bayaziwa ngabo. Kule mimandla eyahlukileyo yeenkcukacha, abaphandi abaqhubeka beqikelela ukuphela kwemiphumo yonyango baya kulahleka indlela iindlela eziqikelelweyo malunga nokunyuka kwefuthe zonyango zingabonelela malunga nendlela unyango osebenza ngayo, indlela onokuphuculwa ngayo, nokuba ingajoliswa njani kwabo banokuzuza.

Imimiselo emibili ye-heterogeneity yeempembelelo zonyango ivela kuphando olongezelelweyo kwiiNgxelo ze-Home Energy. Okokuqala, u- Allcott (2011) wasebenzisa ubukhulu beesampula (imizi engama-600,000) ukuqhubela phambili ukwahlula isampuli kwaye uqikelele umphumo Allcott (2011) . Ngoxa u- Schultz et al. (2007) ifumene ukungafani phakathi kwabasebenzisi Allcott (2011) , u- Allcott (2011) wafumanisa ukuba kukho ukungafani phakathi kweqela elinamandla kunye Allcott (2011) . Ngokomzekelo, abasebenzisi abakhulu kunabo bonke (abo basesidlangalaleni esiphambili) bancitshiswe ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kabini kunomntu ophakathi kweqela elinomthwalo-mthwalo (umfanekiso 4.8). Ukongezelela, ukuqikelela umphumo wendlela yokuphambi kwonyango kwaye kwabonisa ukuba kwakungekho nentsingiselo ye-boomerang, kuba kubasebenzisi abakhulu kakhulu (umzekeliso 4.8).

Umzobo 4.8: Impembelelo yonyango lwemiphumo e- Allcott (2011) . Ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwahluke kubantu abakwiimpawu ezahlukeneyo zokusetyenziswa esisezantsi. Ukutshintshwa kwi- Allcott (2011) , isiqendu 8.

Kuhlolisiso oluthile, Costa and Kahn (2013) icacise ukuba ukusebenza kweNgxelo yeMandla eNkcubeko kuyahluka ngokusekelwe kwingcamango yezopolitiko kunye nokuba unyango lunokubangela ukuba abantu baneengcamango ezithile zokunyusa umbane wabo. Ngamanye amazwi, bacacisa ukuba iiNgxelo zeMandla zeKhaya zingaba nempembelelo ye-boomerang kwezinye iintlobo zabantu. Ukuvavanya oku kwenzeka, iCosta kunye neKahn badibanisa iData yokuSebenza kunye nedatha ethengiweyo kwi-aggregator yeqela lesithathu elibandakanya ulwazi olunjengobhaliso lweqela lezopolitiko, iminikelo kwimibutho yendalo, nokuthatha inxaxheba kwindlu kwiinkqubo zamandla avuselelekayo. Ngalo datha, iCosta noKahn bafumene ukuba iiNgxelo zeMandla zeKhaya zivelise iziphumo ezifanayo ezifanayo kubathathi-nxaxheba abaneengcamango ezahlukeneyo; kwakungekho ubungqina bokuba nayiphi na iqela ibonakalise imiphumo ye-boomerang (umfanekiso 4.9).

Umzekeliso 4.9: I-Heterogeneity yemiphumo yonyango Costa and Kahn (2013) . Isingqinisiso sempembelelo yonyango ye-sampula yonke i--2.1% [-1.5%, -2.7%]. Emva kokudibanisa ulwazi oluvela kwimizamo malunga nemindeni, Costa and Kahn (2013) isebenzisa uluhlu lwamanqaku oluthathileyo ukuqikelela umphumo wonyango kumaqela athile abantu abathile. Uqikelelo olubini lubekwe kwiqela ngalinye kuba uqikelelo luxhomekeka kwii-covariates ezibandakanyiweyo kwiimodeli zazo (sibone imizekelo 4 kunye no-6 kumatafula 3 no-4 Costa and Kahn (2013) ). Njengoko lo mzekelo ubonisa, imiphumo yonyango ingahluka kubantu abahlukeneyo kunye noqikelelo lwemiphumo yonyango evela kumanqaku amanani angancika kwiinkcukacha zale mizekelo (Grimmer, Messing, and Westwood 2014) . Ukutshintshwa Costa and Kahn (2013) , amacwecwe 3 no-4.

Njengoko le mizekelo emibini ibonisa, kwixesha ledijithali, sinokusukela ekuqikeleleni iziphumo zonyango zonyango ukuqikelela ukunyuka kweempembelelo zonyango ngenxa yokuba sinokuthatha abathathi-nxaxheba abaninzi kwaye siyazi ngakumbi ngaba bathathi-nxaxheba. Ukufunda ngokuchaneka kweempembelelo zonyango kunokunceda ukujoliswa kwonyango apho kusebenza kakuhle, kunika amaqiniso avuselela uphuhliso olutsha, kwaye unika iingcebiso malunga nendlela enokwenzeka ngayo, isihloko esiphendule ngoku.