3.3.1 Ukumelwa
Umelo malunga ukuzigqibela ngento ukusuka abaphenduli yakho abemi ekujoliswe.
Ukuze uqonde uhlobo lweephene ezinokuthi zenzeke xa zisuka kubaphenduli kubemi abaninzi, makhe siqwalasele i-poll ye- Literary Digest efuna ukuchaza kwangaphambili umphumo wokhetho luka-1936 lwase-EU. Nangona kwenzeke ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-75 edlulileyo, le ntshukumo ibuye isifundo esibalulekileyo ukufundisa abaphandi namhlanje.
I-Literary Digest yayimagazini edlalwa ngumdla-jikelele, kwaye ukususela ngowama-1920 baqala ukuqhuba ii-polls ukuba baxelele iziphumo zotyulo lukazwelonke. Ukwenza ezi zibikezelo, zaziza kubhalisela abantu abaninzi kwaye zize zenze i-ballot ezibuyiselwe; I-Literary Digest yabika ngokuziqhenya ukuba izibhengezo abazifumanayo azizange "zilinganiswe, zihlengahlengiswe kwaye zingachazwiswanga." Le nkqubo ichanele ngokufanelekileyo abaphumelele ukhetho ngo-1920, ngo-1924, ngo-1928 no-1932. Ngowe-1936, phakathi kweNcwadi yokuThuthukiswa kweNtloko, iNcwadi I-Digest ithumele izivoti kubantu abayizigidi ezili-10, abo amagama abo aphuma ngokubanzi kwiilawuni zefoni kunye neirekhodi zokubhalisa imoto. Nantsi indlela abachaze ngayo indlela yabo:
"UMSEBENZI omatshini osebenza ngokugqithiseleyo uhamba ngokuchaneka ngokukhawuleza kwamava eminyaka engamashumi amathathu ekunciphiseni ukuqagela kwiinkcukacha ezinzima ... Ngeveki 500 iingxowa ezicatshulwa ngaphezu kwekota yesigidi esithengisa ngosuku. Nsuku zonke, kwigumbi eliphezulu eliphezulu ngaphaya kwe-Fourth Avenue, e-New York, abasebenzi base-400 batyhila iziqwenga zezigidi zeempahla eziprintiweyo-ngokwaneleyo ukupaka iibhloko zedolophu ezingamashumi amane-ekubhekiselelwe kuyo. Njalo iiyure, kwi-Substation YOMSEBENZI we-Post Office, abathathu beemishini zokulinganisa iifowuni zitywinwe kwaye zityinwe i-oblongs ezimhlophe; Abasebenzi abanezakhono zeposi bawafakela kwii-mailsacks ezinobumba; Iinqwelo zeenqwelo zokuhamba zenza ukuba izithuthi zenze i-mail-trains. . . Ngeveki ezayo, iimpendulo zokuqala ezi zigidi ezilishumi ziya kuqalisa ukuhamba kwamanzi okubhaliweyo, ukuba zihlolwe kathathu, ziqinisekiswe, ziphindwe kathathu zihlulwe kwaye zizaliswe. Xa isibalo sokugqibela sitshintshiwe kwaye sitshekishwe, ukuba amava adlulileyo i-criterion, ilizwe liya kuqonda kwiqhezu leepesenti eziyi-1 ezivota ezikhethiweyo ezigidi ezingama-40 [abavoti]. "(Agasti 22, 1936)
Ukubhaptizwa kwe- Literary Digest yobukhulu kwangoko kuqondwa naluphi na umphandi "omkhulu wedatha" namhlanje. Kwizigidi ezi-10 zezivoti zihanjiswe, izigidi ezi-2.4 zibuyiselwe-zihlandlo ezili-1,000 zikhulu kunezopolitiko zezopolitiko zanamhlanje. Ukusuka kwezi zigidi ezi-2.4 eziphenduliweyo, isigwebo sacaca: U-Alf Landon wayeza kunqoba uFranklin Roosevelt. Kodwa, enyanisweni, uRoosevelt watshitshisa umhlaba u-Landon. I- Literary Digest ingayiphutha njani ngedatha eninzi? Ukuqonda kwethu kwexesha lokusampula kwenza ukuba iimpazamo ze- Literary Digest zicaca kwaye zisinceda sigweme ukwenza iimpazamo ezifanayo kwixesha elizayo.
Ukucinga ngokucacileyo malunga nokusampula kufuna ukuba sicinge ngamacandelo amane ahlukeneyo abantu (umfanekiso 3.2). Iqela lokuqala lijoliswe ngabantu ; Leli liqela eliphandwa ngumphandi njengabantu abanomdla. Kwimeko ye- Literary Digest , i-target target of the population in the voters in 1936.
Emva kokuthatha isigqibo malunga nenani labantu abajoliswe kulo, umphandi ufuna ukuphuhlisa uluhlu lwabantu abangasetyenziselwa isampuli. Olu luhlu lubizwa ngokuba ngumlinganiselo wesampuli kunye nabantu bakulo kuthiwa isiqendu sabantu . Ngokuchanekileyo, i-target population and frame frame will be the same, kodwa ekusebenzeni oku akunjalo. Ngokomzekelo, kwimeko ye- Literary Digest , isakhelo sabantu sabantu abayizigidi ezili-10 abaye bafika amagama amaninzi kumanqaku eefowuni kunye neirekhodi zokubhalisa imoto. Ukwahlukana phakathi koluntu olujoliswe kuyo kunye nesakhelo sabantu kuthiwa yimpazamo yokufihla . Iphutha lesiphakamiso asinalo, ngokwalo, iingxaki zokuqinisekisa. Nangona kunjalo, kunokukhokelela ekuhlaseleni ukuba abantu bahlala kwisakhelo sabantu bahluke ngokukodwa kubantu ababhekiselele kuluntu abangekho kwisakhelo sabantu. Oku kunjalo, ngokwenene, okwenzekayo kwi-poll ye- Literary Digest . Abantu abahlala kwisakhelo sabo sabantu babekhokelela ekuncedeni u-Alf Landon, ngenxa yokuba bebutyebi (khumbula ukuba zombini iifowuni kunye neemoto zazingenakutsha kwaye zindleko ngo-1936). Ngoko, kwi- Literary Digest i- poll, iiposa yokufihlakele kwakhokelela ekuhlaleni.
Umzobo 3.2: iimpazamo zokumela.
Emva kokuchaza isakhelo sabantu , isinyathelo esilandelayo kukuba umphandi ukhethe isampula yoluntu ; Aba bantu bazama ukuthetha udliwano-ndlebe nabo. Ukuba isampuli ineempawu ezahlukileyo kunokuba isakhelo sabantu, isampuli sinokufaka isiphumo sampampu . Kwimeko ye- Literary Digest fiasco, nangona kunjalo, kwakungekho nampampu-iphephancwadi ukuqhagamshelana nomntu ngamnye kwisiqulatho sabantu-kwaye ngoko kwakungekho mpazamo yesampulu. Abaphengululi abaninzi banokugxininisa kwisiphelo sampampu-oku ngokuqhelekileyo uhlobo oluthile lwephutha elifakwe ngumda wephutha elibikwe kwiingxelo-kodwa i- Literary Digest fiasco isikhumbuza ukuba kufuneka siqwalasele yonke imithombo yempazamo, zombini engahleliyo kwaye ichanekileyo.
Ekugqibeleni, emva kokukhetha isampula yabemi, umphandi uzama ukuphandululana nawo onke amalungu ayo. Abo bantu baxoxwa ngempumelelo babizwa ngokuba ngabaphenduli . Ngokufanelekileyo, isampula yabemi kunye nabaphendulayo kuya kuba yinto efanayo, kodwa ngokusebenzayo akukho nto. Okokuthi, abantu abakhethiweyo kwisampuli ngamanye amaxesha andithatha inxaxheba. Ukuba abantu abasabela yahlukile kwabo bengasamkeli, ngoko kukho kunokuba icala nonresponse. Inkcazo engeyiyo i-Nonresponse yinkxalabo yesibini eyintloko kunye ne- Literary Digest poll. Kuphela abantu abangama-24% abafumene i-voti baphendule, kwaye kwabakho abantu abaxhasa i-Landon ukuba banokuthi baphendule.
Ngaphandle nje kokuba ngumzekelo wokuzisa iingcamango zokumelwa, i- Literary Digest i- poll imifanekiso ephindaphindiweyo, abaqaphelisayo ngabaphandi malunga neengozi zokutshekisha. Ngelishwa, ndicinga ukuba isifundo abantu abaninzi abasuka kule bali asilunganga. Ukuziphatha okuqhelekileyo kwimbali kukuba abaphandi abanakufunda nantoni na kwiisampuli ezingenakwenzeka (oko kukuthi, iisampula ngaphandle kwemigaqo esisiseko esekelwe ukukhetha abathathi-nxaxheba). Kodwa, njengoko ndiza kubonisa kamva kwesi sahluko, oko akunjalo. Kunoko, ndicinga ukuba kukho ukuziphatha okubini kweli bali; iimpawu ezinyanisekileyo namhlanje njengoko zazikho ngo-1936. Okokuqala, ixabiso elikhulu leenkcukacha eziqokelelwe ngokungaqinisekiyo aliyi kuqinisekisa ukuba uqikelelo olufanelekileyo. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukuba nenani elikhulu labaphenduli liyanciphisa ukuhluka koqikelelo, kodwa akunciphisi ukunciphisa i-bias. Ngobuninzi beenkcukacha, abaphandi bafumana amaxesha athile ngokuchaneka kokuchanekileyo; ziyakwazi ukuchaneka ngokuchanekileyo (McFarland and McFarland 2015) . Isifundo sesibini esibalulekileyo kwi- Literary Digest fiasco kukuba abaphandi kufuneka baxubushe ngendlela isampuli yabo eqokelelwa ngayo xa kuqikelelwa. Ngamanye amagama, ngenxa yokuba inkqubo yokutyelela kwi- Literary Digest i- poll yayisetyenziselwa indlela abaphendulileyo ngayo, abaphandi bafuna ukusebenzisa inkqubo eqikelelekileyo yokuqikelela eyabalinganisa abanye abaphendule ngaphezu kwabanye. Ekuhambeni kwesi sahluko, ndiza kukubonisa enye inkqubo enzima-ukulandelwa kwe-stratification-leyo inokukunceda ukuba uqikelele ngakumbi kuma-sampuli angenawo.
