4.4.3 mekgwa

Liteko lekanya se etsahetseng. Mekgwa hlalosa lebaka le ka moo e ileng sa etsahala.

Senotlolo sa boraro khopolo ea ho fallela ka nģ'ane ho liteko tsa le bonolo hakana ke likeletso. Mekgwa re bolella hore na ke hobane'ng kapa kamoo kalafo e etsa hore le phello e. Tshebetso ya ho batla mekgwa e boetse linako tse ling bitsoa batla kenella divariabole kapa mediating divariabole. Le hoja liteko tsa ba molemo bakeng sa ho ka go fopholetsa liphello e bakang, ba atisa ho se ke etselitsoe ho senola cams. Digital dilemo liteko li ka re thusa ho hlokomela mekgwa ka litsela tse peli: 1) ba re nolofalletsa ho bokella ya data eketsehileng thulaganyo le 2) li etsa hore re a leke mekhoa ea phekolo e mengata e amanang le yona.

Hobane mekgwa ke a qhekellang ho hlalosa molao (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , ke tl'o qala ka mohlala o bonolo: limes le scurvy (Gerber and Green 2012) . Lekholong la bo18 la lilemo lingaka e ne e ka kutloisiso e ntle molemo hore ha basesisi ba likepe ba ja limes ha baa fumana scurvy. Scurvy ke lefu le tšabehang joalo ena e ne e e matla boitsebiso bo eketsehileng. Empa, lingaka tsena ne ba sa tsebe hore na ke hobane'ng limes thibela scurvy. Ho ne ho se ho fihlela ka 1932, hoo e ka bang lilemong tse 200 tse seng kae hamorao, bo-rasaense ba ne tshepahala bontša hore vithamine C ne lebaka la hore kalaka thibela scurvy (Carpenter 1988, p 191) . Tabeng ena, vithamine C ke mochine oo ka oona limes thibela scurvy (Figure 4.9). Ke 'nete hore khethollang mochine o bohlokoa haholo saense a lotho ea saense ea bitsoang e ka bang ho utloisisa lebaka leo lintho li etsahala. Ho Khetholla mekgwa ke ea bohlokoa haholo hoo e batlang e. Hang ha re utloisisa hore na ke hobane'ng kalafo e sebetsang, re ka bang le monyetla hlahisa mekhoa ea phekolo e ncha eo sebetsa le ho feta.

Leka 4,9: Limes thibela scurvy le mochine o vithamine C.

Ka bomalimabe, ho itšehla mekgwa e thata haholo. Ho fapana le limes le scurvy, a di-setting tse ngata ha sechaba, taba tsa phekolo li etsahala hore ebe sebetsa pholletsa litseleng tse ngata tla ama, e leng se etsang ho itšehla thajana ea mekgwa thata haholo. Leha ho le joalo, tabeng ea ditlwaelo tsa phedisano le ho sebedisa matla, bafuputsi ba ile ba leka ho itšehla mekgwa ke bokella ya data thulaganyo le inonye liphekolo tse amanang.

Tsela e 'ngoe hore a leke mekgwa ho khoneha ke ka bokella ya data tiriso ya thulaganyo mabapi le kamoo phekolo mbano ya mabe na mekgwa ho ka khonehang. Ka mohlala, hopola hore Allcott (2011) o ile a bontša hore Home Energy Reports etsa hore batho ba ho theola tšebeliso ea bona motlakase. Empa, kamoo etsa litlaleho tse tsena tšebeliso tlaase motlakase? Seo e ne e le mekgwa ya? Ka thuto ea latele-up, Allcott and Rogers (2014) partnered le khampani matla hore, ka lenaneo la rebate, e fumaneng tlhahisoleseding e mabapi le e leng bareki ntlafatswa lisebelisoa tsa bona ho dikai le matla a eketsehileng e sebetsang hantle haholoanyane. Allcott and Rogers (2014) fumane hore hanyenyane ho feta batho ho fumana Home Energy Reports ntlafatswa lisebelisoa tsa bona. Empa, phapang ena e ne e le e nyenyane eo e ne e ka feela ikarabella ka 2% ya fokotseha ka tshebediso matla a malapa tse tšoaroa ka eona. Ka mantsoe a mang, appliance upgrades ne e se mochine laolang leo ka lona Energy Report Home fokotseha tshebediso motlakase.

A Tsela ea bobeli ea ho ithuta mekgwa ke ho matha liteko le liphetolelo fapaneng hanyenyane tsa phekolo. Ka mohlala, khatisong ea teko ea Schultz et al. (2007) le ho tsohle morago ga moo e Home Energy Report ditekeletso, barupeluoa ba ne ba fana le se seng sa phekolo e nang le likarolo tse peli tse khōlō 1) dikeletso mabapi le chelete eo ae bokeletseng matla le 2) boitsebiso bo eketsehileng mabapi tshebediso matla a bona a lekanyelitsoeng ho lithaka tsa bona (Figure 4,6). Kahoo, ho ka etsahala hore ho bolokeha matla ditomotsebe ke seo ile a etsa hore ba fetole, ha ho buuoe ka boitsebiso bo lithaka. Ho hlahloba monyetla o tseo ditomotsebe le mong a ka 'na ba' nile ba e lekaneng, Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) partnered le khampani metsi haufi le Atlanta, GA,' me a matha e teko tse amanang mabapi le paballo ea metsi amang hoo e ka bang 100,000 malapa. Ho na le Maemo a ne a mane:

• sehlopha ileng la amohela dikeletso mabapi le ka pholosa metsi.
• sehlopha ileng la amohela dikeletso mabapi le ka pholosa metsi + boipiletso tsa boitšoaro ho pholosa metsi.
• sehlopha ileng la amohela dikeletso mabapi le ka pholosa metsi + boipiletso tsa boitšoaro ho pholosa metsi + boitsebiso bo eketsehileng mabapi sebedisa metsi a bona a lekanyelitsoeng ho lithaka tsa bona.
• e laola liketso tsa sehlopha.

Bafuputsi ba fumane hore ditomotsebe kalafo feela ne a se na le phello tšebeliso ea metsi a e khutšoanyane (selemo se le seng), seaplane (selemo sa 'meli),' me nako e telele (selemo sa mararo) telele. Malebela + boipiletso ba kalafo bakoang barupeluoa ho fokotseha tšebeliso metsi, empa feela ka nako e khutšoanyane. Qetellong, malebela + boipiletso ba + lithaka fumane boitsebiso bo kalafo bakoang fokotseha tsebeliso ea ena e khutsoanyane, tse mahareng, 'me nako e telele (Figure phahameng 4.10). Mefuta eno ya liteko le liphekolo arogantswe ke tsela e molemo ea ho utloisisa hore e leng karolo ea ho phekola-e leng kapa likarolong hammoho-ke bona ba etsang phello (Gerber and Green 2012, Sec. 10.6) . Ka mohlala, teko ea Ferraro le basebetsi-'moho re bontša hore metsi a pholosang ditomotsebe mong ha ho a lekana ho fokotsa tšebeliso ea metsi.

Figure phahameng 4.10: Results tsoang Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . Liphekolo ba ile ba romeloa May 21, 2007, 'me liphello li ne li lekanngoa nakong ea lehlabula ka 2007, 2008,' me 2009. Ka unbundling ho phekola bafuputsi ho nang le tšepo hore ba be le boikutlo ba ho hamolemo ho hlahisa mekgwa eo. Malebela kalafo feela o ne a le hantle ha ho phetoho ka e khutsoanyane (selemo se le seng), seaplane (lilemo tse peli), 'me nako e telele (ka lilemo tse tharo) telele. Malebela + boipiletso ba kalafo bakoang barupeluoa ho fokotseha tšebeliso metsi, empa feela ka nako e khutšoanyane. Keletso + boipiletso ba + lithaka kalafo fumane boitsebiso bo bakoang barupeluoa ho fokotseha tšebeliso ea metsi a e khutšoanyane, tse mahareng, 'me nako e telele. mekoallo ea Lathe ba hakanyetsoang ho dikgao kholiseho. Sheba Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) bakeng sa thepa sebele ea ho ithuta.

Sebakeng se loketseng, e mong e ne e tla fallela ka nģ'ane ho layering ea likarolo (ditomotsebe; ditomotsebe + ipiletsa; ditomotsebe + boipiletso ba + fumane boitsebiso bo lithaka) to e tletseng factorial tsa boqapi-boetse linako tse ling bitsoa \ (2 ^ k bana \) factorial tsa boqapi-moo e mong le e motsoako ka khonehang ea likarolo tse tharo e lekoa (Lethathamo 4.1). Ke leka mong le e mong motsoako ka khonehang ea likarolo, bafuputsi ka ka botlalo hlahloba phello ea e mong le e motsoako a itšehla thajana 'me ka kopana. Ka mohlala, teko ea Ferraro le basebetsi-'moho ha e bolele hore ebang lithaka papiso le mong ne e tla ba e lekaneng ea ho baka liphetoho nako e telele tsa boitšoaro. Nakong e fetileng, tsena feletseng boqapi boo factorial 'nile thata ho matha hobane ba batla palo e khōlō ea barupeluoa' me ba batla bafuputsi ba khona ho toba hore laola le ho fana ka palo e kholo ea mekhoa ea phekolo. Empa, a le lilemo dijethale tlosa liqholotso tsena logistical maemong itseng.

Ka kakaretso, mekgwa-e leng litseleng leo ka lona kalafo a e-na le phello-ba Hoa makatsa hore ebe ntho ea bohlokoa. Digital dilemo liteko ka re thusang hore bafuputsi ba ithuta ka mekgwa ke 1) bokella tiriso ya thulaganyo ya data le 2) nolofalletsa feletseng boqapi boo factorial. The mekgwa tlhahiso ke le atamela tsena ka ka nako eo ke lekoa ka ho toba ke liteko ka ho toba etselitsoe hore a leke mekgwa (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

Ka tjhelete yohle, tsena tse tharo bopa dikgopolo-tumello; heterogeneity oa liphello mpe; le mekgwa-ho fana ka molaetsa o matla sete ya litlhahiso tsa ho qapa le ho toloka liteko. Mehopolo ena thuso bafuputsi susumelletsa ka nģ'ane ho liteko tsa le bonolo hakana ka seo "mesebetsi" ho liteko tsa ruileng e nang le khokahano ho ea tiisa mesifa ho khopolo eo, hore senola moo 'me ke hobane'ng liphekolo sebetsa,' me ka ba thusa bafuputsi meralo ea phekolo e atlehe haholoanyane. Fuoa sena semelo kgopolo fa mabapi liteko, ke tla hona joale ba retelehela ho kamoo u ka ha e le hantle etsa liteko oa hao etsahala.