4.4.3 Farsamo

Tijaabo lagu cabbiro waxa dhacay. Farsamo sharax sababta iyo sida ay u dhacday.

Fikradda saddexaad fure u dhaqaaqin ka baxsan tijaabo fudud waa hab. Farsamo noo sheeg sababta ama sida daaweynta uu keeno saamayn. Geedi socodka ah ee raadinaya habab waxaa sidoo kale mararka qaar la yiraahdo raadinaya guda doorsoomayaasha ama dhexdhexaadinta doorsoomayaasha. Inkasta oo tijaabo u fiican yihiin qiyaasayo saamaynta sababaha, ay inta badan ma loogu talo galay inuu u muujiyo habab. tijaabo da'da Digital naga caawin kartaa garto hababka laba siyaabood: 1) waxay awood noo si ay u ururiyaan xogta nidaamka dheeraad ah iyo 2) waxay awood noo si ay u tijaabiso daaweyn badan oo la xiriira.

Sababtoo ah hababka waa adag in si rasmi ah u qeexaya (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , waxaan doonayaa inaan bilaabo tusaale fudud: Limes iyo scurvy (Gerber and Green 2012) . Qarnigii 18-dhakhaatiir lahaa dareen fiican in marka badmaax cunay Limes iyagu ma ay heli kii cambaar qaba. Kii cambaar qaba waa cudur daran sidaas oo intaasu waxay ahayd warbixin awood badan. Laakiin, dhakhaatiirta, kuwaas oo ma ay garanayn Limes hortagi kii cambaar qaba. Waxa aan ahaa ilaa 1932, ku dhawaad ​​200 oo sano ka dib, in saynisyahano kalsoonaan karo ay sheegi karin vitamin C in ay ahayd sababta in liin hortagi scurvy (Carpenter 1988, p 191) . Xaaladdan oo kale, vitamin C waa hab ay kaas oo Limes hortago kii cambaar qaba (Jaantuska 4.9). Dabcan, aqoonsashada farsamo waa mid aad u muhiim ah cilmi-badan oo ku saabsan sayniska waa fahamka sababta wax u dhacaan. Aqoonsiga hababka waa mid aad u muhiim ah ficil ahaan. Marka aan fahmin sababta daaweynta ka shaqeeya, waxaan laga yaabo qaadi karaan daawooyin cusub in xataa si fiican u shaqeeyaan.

Jaantuska 4.9: Limes hortago cadho iyo hab yahay Vitamin C.

Nasiib darro, takooro habab waa mid aad u adag. Si ka duwan Limes iyo kii cambaar qaba, in goobaha badan oo bulshada, daaweynta u badan tahay shaqeeyaan iyada oo loo marayo dariiqyo badan oo wada xiriira, taas oo ka dhigaysa go'doon ah habab aad u adag. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, in ay dhacdo of caadooyinka bulshada iyo isticmaalka tamarta, cilmi-isku dayeen in ay go'doomiyaan hab by ururinta xogta geeddi-socodka iyo tijaabo ee daaweynta la xiriira.

Mid ka mid ah habka ay u tijaabiso hab macquul tahay by ururinta xogta ku saabsan sida habka daaweynta saamaysay hab ay suurtagal tahay. Tusaale ahaan, xusuustaa in Allcott (2011) waxay muujisay in Home Wararka Energy keena dadka in ay hoos u isticmaalka korontada ay. Laakiin, sida ay sheegayaan warar ku sameeyo isticmaalka korontada hoose? Maxay ahaayeen habab ka? In baadhitaan dabagal ah, Allcott and Rogers (2014) la shuraakoobay shirkadda a in xoog, iyada oo barnaamijka lacag celis ah, ayaa warbixin ku saabsan oo macaamiisha la casriyeeyay qalabka si ay u daydo tamarta ka badan helay. Allcott and Rogers (2014) ayaa lagu ogaaday in wax yar ka badan dadka hela Home Wararka Energy casriyeeyay qalabka ay. Laakiin, farqiga this ahaa sidaas u yar in lagu xisaabiyo oo kaliya 2% hoos u dhac ah ee isticmaalka tamarta ee qoysaska loola dhaqmo. In si kale loo dhigo, casriyaynta qalabka ma ahaayeen hab ay adag kaas oo Report Energy Home dhinmeen isticmaalka korontada.

Hab labaad inaad wax ka barato habab waa in uu ordo tijaabo la versions yar kala duwan ee daaweynta. Tusaale ahaan, in tijaabo ee Schultz et al. (2007) iyo dhammaan tijaabooyinka xiga Report Energy Home, ka qaybgalayaasha ayaa la siiyey daaweyn ah in uu leeyahay laba qaybood ugu muhiimsan 1) Talooyin ku saabsan kaydka tamarta iyo 2) warbixin ku saabsan isticmaalka tamarta ay qaraabo in dhiggooda (Jaantuska 4.6). Sidaas darteed, waxaa suurtagal ah in talooyinkaas tamar keydinta waa waxa keena isbedelka, ma macluumaad isku faca ah. Si loo qiimeeyo suurtagalnimada in talooyin ah oo keliya ayaa laga yaabaa in ku filan, Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) la shuraakoobay shirkadda biyaha u dhow Atlanta, GA, oo ku soo orday tijaabo la xiriira on ilaalinta biyaha ku lug leh oo ku saabsan 100,000 oo qoys. Waxaa jiray afar xaaladaha:

• koox helay talooyin ku saabsan biyaha lagu badbaadinayo.
• koox helay talooyin ku saabsan biyaha + racfaan moral badbaadinta si loo badbaadiyo biyaha.
• koox helay talooyin ku saabsan biyaha + racfaan moral badbaadinta si loo badbaadiyo biyaha + warbixin ku saabsan isticmaalka biyaha ay qaraabo inay facooda.
• koox gacanta.

Cilmi baarayaashu waxay ogaadeen in talooyin daaweyn oo kaliya ayaa saamayn lahayn on isticmaalka biyaha ee gaaban (hal sano), oo dhexdhexaad ah (laba sano), iyo dheer (saddex sano) dheer. + Daaweynta racfaan talooyin sababay ka qaybgalayaasha in ay hoos u isticmaalka biyaha, laakiin kaliya ee muddo gaaban. Ugu dambeyntii, daaweynta macluumaad talooyin + racfaan + faca uu keeno hoos u isticmaalka ee gaaban, dhexdhexaad ah, oo muddo dheer ah (Jaantuska 4.10). Noocaas ah tijaabo la daaweyn unbundled waa hab fiican oo lagu ogaado qayb oo ka mid ah daawaynta ama kaas oo qaybo ka wada-kuwa sababaya saamaynta (Gerber and Green 2012, Sec. 10.6) . Tusaale ahaan, tijaabo ee Ferraro iyo asxaabtii uu muujinayaa noo ah in talooyin ku badbaado biyo oo keliya kuma filna in ay hoos u isticmaalka biyaha.

Jaantuska 4.10: Natiijooyinka ka Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . Daaweyn la diray May 21, 2007, iyo saamaynta ayaa ku qiyaasay inta lagu guda jiro xagaaga ee 2007, 2008, iyo 2009. By unbundling daaweynta cilmi rajaynayeen inay yeeshaan dareen wanaagsan oo hab ah. Talooyin The daaweynta oo keliya lahaa muhiimad saamayn ku lahayn gaaban (hal sano), oo dhexdhexaad ah (laba sano), iyo dheer (saddex sano) dheer. + Daaweynta racfaan talooyin sababay ka qaybgalayaasha in ay hoos u isticmaalka biyaha, laakiin kaliya ee muddo gaaban. Rafcaanka talo + + daaweynta macluumaad faca sababay ka qaybgalayaasha in ay hoos u isticmaalka biyaha ee gaaban, dhexdhexaad ah, oo muddo dheer ah. baararka taagan ayaa lagu qiyaasay dura kalsooni. Eeg Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) qalabka waxbarasho dhabta ah.

Sida habboon, mid guurto lahaa ka baxsan Yeeelid ka mid ah qaybaha (talooyin, talooyin + racfaan, talooyin + racfaan + warbixin faca) si buuxda factorial design-sidoo kale mararka qaarkood loo yaqaan \ a (2 ^ k \) design-halkaasoo factorial darka kasto oo macquul ah oo ka mid ah saddex walxaad waa mid la tijaabiyey (Shaxda 4.1). By jirrabaya darka kasta oo macquul ah oo ka kooban, cilmi buuxda oo qiimeyn kara saamaynta qayb kasta ee go'doomin iyo isku dhafan. Tusaale ahaan, tijaabo ee Ferraro iyo asxaabtii muu muujinin haddii la barbardhigo faca keliya ayaa ku filnaan lahayd si uu u hoggaamiyo inuu isbedel muddada dheer ee dhaqanka. In la soo dhaafay, kuwaas oo naqshado factorial buuxa ayaa ay adag tahay in uu ordo, sababtoo ah waxay u baahan yihiin tiro badan oo ka qaybgalayaasha oo ay u baahan yihiin cilmi si ay u awoodaan in ay si hufan loo xakameeyo iyo samatabbixin tiro badan oo ah daawaynta. Laakiin, da'da digital saaraan caqabadaha saadka xaaladaha qaar ka mid ah.

In kooban, hababka-ka wadooyinka kuwaas oo daaweyn ah leedahay saamayn-yihiin cajiib ah oo muhiim ah. tijaabo da'da Digital caawin kara cilmi bartaan hababka by 1) ururinta xogta geeddi-socodka iyo 2) awood naqshado factorial buuxa. Arrimaha ka soo jeediyay by habab kuwaas oo markaas ay si toos ah u baari karaa by tijaabo si gaar ah loogu talagalay in lagu tijaabiyo hababka (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

Guud ahaan, saddexdan fikradaha-ansax, heterogeneity of saamaynta daaweynta; iyo hab-siin go'an awood of fikradaha qorshaynta iyo turjumidda tijaabo. Kuwani cilmi fikradaha caawimaad ka gudbaan tijaabo fudud ku saabsan waxa "shuqullada" si tijaabo doonee, in ay leeyihiin xiriir adag in aragtida, Muujinaysaan meesha iyo sababta daaweynta shaqeeyaan, oo laga yaabo in xitaa caawin cilmi qorsheeyo daaweynta intan ka waxtar badan. Marka la eego this asalka fikradeed oo ku saabsan tijaabooyinka, haatan waxaan soo jeedin doonaa inaan sida aad si dhab ah ka dhigi kartaa tijaabo aad ku dhici.