4.1 Introduction

Munguva Nzira akafukidza saka kure iyi maitiro mubhuku-kucherechedza (Chapter 2) uye achibvunza mibvunzo (Chapter 3) -researchers kuunganidza mashoko pamusoro zviri sezvingatarisirwa kuitika munyika. The nzira akafukidzwa muchitsauko chino-achimhanya kuedza-Evhangeri yemvura noMweya ndiyo. Apo Vatsvakurudzi vanomhanya kuedza, ivo zvakanyatsorongwa kupindira munyika kuumba mashoko ari Zvakanakisa wakanyatsokodzera mibvunzo pamusoro chikonzero-uye-kushanda ukama.

Kukonzera-uye-chaizvoizvo mibvunzo zvinhu zvinogarodyiwa munzanga tsvakurudzo, uye mienzaniso inosanganisira mibvunzo yakadai here kuwedzera mari vadzidzisi 'kuwedzera mudzidzi kudzidza? Chii mugumisiro shoma mubayiro pane basa rates? Sei basa munhu akanyorera kuti rudzi pave mukana yake kuwana basa? Kuwedzera mibvunzo iyi zvakajeka causal, dzimwe nguva kukonzera-uye-chaizvoizvo mibvunzo zvizere mibvunzo mamwemazwi pamusoro maximization zvimwe waivako arşive. Somuenzaniso, mubvunzo "Chii ruvara bhatani kuchaita maximize mipiro riri NGO Website yacho?" Ndizvo chaizvoizvo mijenya nemibvunzo pamusoro mugumisiro dzakasiyana bhatani Mavara mipiro.

Imwe nzira kupindura mibvunzo chikonzero-uye-nezvinozoitika kutsvaka maitiro ari yaivapo mashoko. Somuenzaniso, achishandisa mashoko kubva zviuru muzvikoro, unogona exchange kuti kudzidza zvakawanda muzvikoro kuti kupa mukuru mudzidzisi vemitambo. Asi, anotaura kuwirirana ichi anoratidza kuti dzakakwirira mari kukonzera vadzidzi kudzidza zvakawanda? Chokwadika kwete. Zvikoro apo vadzidzisi awedzere angava akasiyana munzira dzakawanda. Somuenzaniso, vadzidzi muzvikoro pamwe dzakakwirira mudzidzisi mari auye kubva mumhuri dzakapfuma. Saka, chii chinenge chisina maturo vadzidzisi aigona chete zvinobva kuenzanisa mhando dzakasiyana yevadzidzi. Izvi unmeasured kusiyana pakati vadzidzi dzinonzi confounders, uye vose zvavo, zvinobvira confounders zvakakwana kunoparira zvinetso vanotsvakurudza kugona kupindura mibvunzo chikonzero-uye-chaizvoizvo nokutsvaka maitiro ari yaivapo mashoko.

Imwe dambudziko pamusoro confounders ndiko kuedza kuita zvakanaka kuenzanisa nokuchinja nokuti zvaioneka kusiyana mapoka. Somuenzaniso, unogona kukopa pfuma mutero Data kubva zvinoverengeka hurumende Websites. Zvadaro, unogona enzanisa mudzidzi waivako muzvikoro umo musha mitengo akafanana asi mudzidzisi mari yakasiyana, uye iwe uchiri ungaona kuti kudzidza zvakawanda muzvikoro pamwe dzakakwirira mudzidzisi mari. Asi, pachine zvakawanda zvinogoneka confounders. Zvichida vabereki mudzidzi izvi zvinosiyana kwavo pamwero dzidzo kana zvichida zvikoro vakasiyana pedyo kwavo paruzhinji maraibhurari kana zvichida zvikoro pamwe dzakakwirira mudzidzisi mari vane mari yakakwirira kuti vemapato uye mari huru, kwete mudzidzisi mari, chaizvoizvo chii chiri kuwedzera mudzidzi kudzidza. Unogona kuedza kuyera izvi zvimwe zvinhu pamwe, asi mazita zvichiita confounders ndiko vanotova hazviperi. Mumamiriro ezvinhu mazhinji, imi chete unogona usaruyera uye kuchinja yose zvichibvira confounders. Izvi zvinogona chete kutora imi saka kure.

A mhinduro nani chinetso confounders ari kumhanya kuedza. Kuedza vakwanise Vanotsvakurudza kufamba mhiri correlations muna sezvingatarisirwa kuitika mashoko kuitira kuti yakavimbika kupindura chikonzero-uye-kushanda mubvunzo. Munguva analoginen zera, kuedza dzaiwanzova logistically akaoma uye zvinodhura. Zvino, ari digitaalinen zera, logistical constraints vari zvishoma kupera. Kwete chete zviri nyore kuita kuedza kufanana vaongorori avo vakaita kare, zviri ikozvino zvinogoneka kumhanya mhando itsva kuedza.

In chii ndava zvakanyorwa saka kure Ndagara zvishoma anongoremberera mumutauro wangu, asi zvakakosha kusiyanisa zvinhu zviviri: kuedza uye randomized rinodzorwa kuedza. Mune kumwe kuedza mutsvakurudzi anopindira munyika uye ipapo anoyera ane mugumisiro. Ndanzwa nzira iyi se "perturb uye kuchengeta." Nzira Izvi chaizvo sayenzi zvepanyama, asi sayenzi zvokurapa uye munzanga, pane imwe nzira anoshanda nani. Mune randomized kudzorwa kuedza mutsvakurudzi anopindira vamwe vanhu kwete vamwe, uye, achitsoropodza, nevatsvakurudzi afunga iyo vanhu vanogamuchira kupindira nokuda randomization (semuenzaniso, flipping mari). nzira iyi zvinoita kuti randomized dzinodzorwa kuedza kusika akanaka kuenzanisa pakati mapoka maviri: munhu akave nokugamuchira kupindira uye uya asina. Nemamwe mashoko, randomized dzinodzorwa kuedza vari kupedza zvinetso confounders. Pasinei zvinokosha misiyano pakati kuedza uye randomized kudzorwa kuedza, vaongorori magariro dzinowanzotaura mashoko aya uchitsanangura. Ndichaenda kutevera gungano iri, asi, pane dzimwe pfungwa, Ndichaenda kuputsa gungano kukosha randomized dzinodzorwa kuedza pamusoro kuedza pasina randomization uye kudzora boka.

Randomized pehurumende kuedza kunge rikaratidzwa kuva simba nzira kudzidza magariro nyika, uye muchitsauko chino, Ndichakupfuurai kukudzidzisai zvakawanda nezvokuti sei kushandisa navo tsvakurudzo yako. Muna Section 4.2, Ndichaenda kuenzanisira inokosha pfungwa kwacho ane muenzaniso kuedza musi Wikipedia. Zvadaro, muChikamu 4.3, Ndichaenda kutsanangura musiyano pakati yezvirwere kuedza uye munda kuedza uye kusiyana pakati analoginen kuedza uye digitaalinen kuedza. Uyezve, Ndichaenda nharo kuti digitaalinen munda kuedza vanogona kupa zvakanakisisa zviri analoginen yezvirwere kuedza (zvakasimba kuzvidzora) uye analoginen munda kuedza (realism), zvose panguva imwe chikero kuti zvakanga zvisingaiti kare. Zvadaro, muChikamu 4.4, Ndichaenda kutsanangura pfungwa-ukoshi matatu, heterogeneity kurapwa nemigumisiro, uye zvenhengo-zviri dzinonetsa kuti afunge mupfumi kuedza. Uchifunga, Ndichaenda kutsanangura kutengeserana-offs munyaya mbiri nzira huru kuitisa digitaalinen kuedza: achizviita pachako (Section 4.5.1) kana partnering pamwe simba (Section 4.5.2). Pakupedzisira, ndichaenderera kugumisa nevamwe magadzirirwo zano pamusoro sei unogona kushandisa simba chaicho digitaalinen kuedza (Section 4.6.1) uye tsanangura vamwe basa kuti anouya kuti simba (Section 4.6.2). Chitsauko zvichakurukurwa ane zvishoma pamusoro akarongeka notation uye mutauro wevakadzidza; Vaverengi kufarira imwe neyebhizimisi, akarongeka yokusvika kuedza vanofanira kuverenga Technical Okuwedzera panoperera chitsauko.