Uyezve komendari

Chikamu chino chakagadzirirwa kushandiswa sokunoratidza, pane kuti kuverenga somunhu rondedzero.

• Nhanganyaya (Section 4.1)

Mibvunzo pamusoro Matambudziko munzanga tsvakurudzo kakawanda kunzwisisa uye zvakaoma kunzwisisa. Kuti hwaro nzira Matambudziko yakavakirwa causal calculators, ona Pearl (2009) , uye kuti hwaro nzira kunobva zvinogona zvaitika, ona Imbens and Rubin (2015) (uye michina okuwedzera muchitsauko chino). Nokuti Kuenzanisa pakati izvi nzira mbiri, ona Morgan and Winship (2014) . Nokuti chakarongwa nzira pakutsanangura ane confounder, ona VanderWeele and Shpitser (2013) .

Muchitsauko, Ini akasika chii zvaiita sokupenya mutsetse pakati kukwanisa kwedu kuita causal nokufungidzira kubva experimental uye asiri kuedza Data. Kutaura zvazviri, ndinofunga kuti kusiyana kuri blurrier. Somuenzaniso, munhu wose anogamuchira kuti kusvuta kunokonzera kenza kunyange hatina kumbobvira vaita randomized kudzorwa kuedza kuti richashandiswa vanhu kusvuta. Nokuti zvakaisvonaka bhuku kureba mishonga kuita causal inofungidzirwa nevasiri experimental Data ona Rosenbaum (2002) , Rosenbaum (2009) , Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) , uye Dunning (2012) .

Zvitsauko 1 ne2 pamusoro Freedman, Pisani, and Purves (2007) kupa sumo zvakajeka kupinda kusiyana pakati kuedza, dzinodzorwa kuedza, uye randomized anodzorwa kuedza.

Manzi (2012) inopa chinonakidza uye verengeka sumo kupinda kwouzivi uye uwandu kusimba kwakaita randomized rinodzorwa kuedza. Inopawo zvinofadza mienzaniso chaiyo-nyika simba kwacho mubhizimisi.

• Ndezvipi kuedza? (Section 4.2)

Casella (2008) , Box, Hunter, and Hunter (2005) , Athey and Imbens (2016b) kupa sumo yakanaka uwandu chokuita experimental magadzirirwo uye kuongorora. Uyezve, pane kwazvo kurapwa tishandise kuedza muminda siyana dzakawanda: nemari (Bardsley et al. 2009) , Wemagariro evanhu (Willer and Walker 2007; Jackson and Cox 2013) , zvepfungwa (Aronson et al. 1989) , Sainzi political (Morton and Williams 2010) , uye magariro mutemo (Glennerster and Takavarasha 2013) .

Kukosha mukwikwidzi muchiuto (semuenzaniso, zvakabudiswa) kazhinji pasi-chaizvo munguva experimental tsvakurudzo. Zvisinei, kana kubata mushonga heterogeneous vari vemo, ipapo zvakabudiswa vachishoropodza. Longford (1999) anoita pfungwa iyi zvakajeka kana Magweta vaongorori kufunga kuedza sechinhu yevagari ongororo pamwe zvakavhiringika zvakabudiswa.

• Two kukura kuedza: yezvirwere-munda uye analoginen-digitaalinen (Section 4.3)

Musiyano kuti Ndakasvitsa pakati yezvirwere uye munda kuedza zviri zvishoma nyore. Kutaura zvazviri, dzimwe vanotsvakurudza aronga uwane typologies, zvikurukuru ndivo kuti kuparadzanisa siyana munda kuedza (Harrison and List 2004; Charness, Gneezy, and Kuhn 2013) . Uyezve, pane dzimwe mhando mbiri kuedza anoitwa evanhu masayendisiti kuti hadzikwani neatly kupinda yezvirwere uye munda musiyano. Ongororo kuedza uye magariro kuedza Survey kuedza vari kuedza kushandisa kwezvivako pamusoro yaivapo kuongorora uye enzanisa mhinduro kumwe mushanduro chete mibvunzo (vamwe ongororo kuedza dzinoturwa muChitsauko 3); nokuti zvakawanda pamusoro ongororo kuedza kuona Mutz (2011) . Social kuedza vari kuedza apo mishonga iri vamwe evanhu nomutemo kuti chete anogona chinozoiswa nehurumende. Social kuedza chokuita chirongwa wakatarwa. Kuti uwane pamusoro mutemo kuedza, ona Orr (1998) , Glennerster and Takavarasha (2013) , uye Heckman and Smith (1995) .

Vanoverengeka mapepa kunge akaenzanisa yezvirwere uye munda kuedza chaihwoihwo (Falk and Heckman 2009; Cialdini 2009) uye tichitarisa zvaitika nezvevamwe kuedza musayenzi enyika (Coppock and Green 2015) , nemari (Levitt and List 2007a; Levitt and List 2007b; Camerer 2011; Al-Ubaydli and List 2013) uye zvepfungwa (Mitchell 2012) . Jerit, Barabas, and Clifford (2013) inopa akanaka tsvakurudzo magadzirirwo kuenzanisa zvawanikwa kubva yezvirwere uye munda kuedza.

Nezvemhosva vechikamu kuchinja maitiro avo nokuti vanoziva zvavari pavaizoramba kuchengetwa dzimwe nguva inonzi vade nemigumisiro, uye ivo vave anodzidzwa zvepfungwa (Orne 1962) uye zvoupfumi (Zizzo 2009) . Kunyange zvazvo kazhinji chokuita yezvirwere kuedza, izvi zvakafanana nyaya zvinogona kukonzera zvinetso munda kuedza uyewo. Kutaura zvazviri, kudiwa zvinokonzerwa vari dzimwe nguva inonzi Hawthorne Migumisiro, izwi anowana kubva munda kuedza, zvakananga yakakurumbira jekeso kuedza kuti yakatanga muna 1924 panguva Hawthorne Mabasa Western Electric Company (Adair 1984; Levitt and List 2011) . Vose vade migumisiro Hawthorn zvinokonzerwa chokuita pfungwa yokuti reactive chipimo muChitsauko 2 (ona zvakare Webb et al. (1966) ).

Nhoroondo munda kuedza kwave vanorondedzerwa nemari (Levitt and List 2009) , political sainzi (Green and Gerber 2003; Druckman et al. 2006; Druckman and Lupia 2012) , zvepfungwa (Shadish 2002) , uye voruzhinji mutemo (Shadish and Cook 2009) . Imwe nzvimbo mumagariro sayenzi apo munda kuedza kusamuda akakurumbira ndiye kukura dzakawanda. Nokuti zvakanaka muchidimbu basa kuti mukati dzezvoupfumi ona Banerjee and Duflo (2009) , uye kuti akaoma kupima ona Deaton (2010) . Nokuti Kudzokorora basa iri zvesayenzi enyika ona Humphreys and Weinstein (2009) . Pakupedzisira, matambudziko yetsika nechokuita munda kuedza dzave bata mune zvematongerwo enyika sayenzi (Humphreys 2015; Desposato 2016b) uye kukura nemari (Baele 2013) .

Muchitsauko, Ndakamukurudzira kuti pre-kurapwa mashoko inogona kushandiswa kuwedzera zvakarurama pamusoro nokukosha kurapwa zvinokonzerwa, asi paine makakatanwa pamusoro nzira iyi: Freedman (2008) , Lin (2013) , uye Berk et al. (2013) ; ona Bloniarz et al. (2016) kuti uwane mamwe mashoko.

• Kufambira mberi nyore kuedza (Section 4.4)

Ndava asarudza kuisa pfungwa pfungwa nhatu: ukoshi, heterogeneity kurapwa nemigumisiro, uye zvenhengo. Ava pfungwa vane mazita akasiyana muminda siyana. Somuenzaniso, vanachiremba vanowanzotevedzera kufamba mberi nyore kuedza nokutarisa pane nevamiririri uye Moderators (Baron and Kenny 1986) . Pfungwa nevamiririri akabatwa zvandinoshevedzera zvenhengo uye pfungwa Moderators akabatwa zvandinoshevedzera zvokunze ukoshi (semuenzaniso, ungadai migumisiro kuedza kuva akasiyana kana zvakanzi kumhanya mumamiriro ezvinhu akasiyana) uye heterogeneity kurapwa nemigumisiro ( semuenzaniso, migumisiro yakakura nokuti vamwe vanhu kupfuura vamwe vanhu).

Kuedza pamusoro Schultz et al. (2007) inoratidza sei dzidziso munzanga zvinogona kushandiswa kugadzira vanobudirira kupindira. Kuti mamwemazwi nharo nezvebasa dzidziso mazano zvinobudirira kupindira, ona Walton (2014) .

• Ukoshi (Section 4.4.1)

Pfungwa yomunyika uye zvokunze ukoshi vakatanga kuudzwa nezvechokwadi muna Campbell (1957) . Ona Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) kuti nhoroondo uwane nokunyatsoongorora elaboration uwandu mhedziso ukoshi, womukati ukoshi, kuvaka ukoshi, uye zvokunze ukoshi.

Nokuti muchidimbu nyaya chokuita uwandu mhedziso ukoshi ari kuedza kuona Gerber and Green (2012) (nokuti pasocial sayenzi maonero) uye Imbens and Rubin (2015) (nokuti nhamba maonero). Vamwe nyaya uwandu mhedziso ukoshi kuti inomuka zvakananga pakombuyuta munda kuedza kubatanidza nyaya dzakadai computationally vakarongeka nzira kusika chivimbo zvikamu pamwe nemataundi Data (Bakshy and Eckles 2013) .

Internal ukoshi inogona zvakaoma nechokwadi mune kunzwisisa mumunda kuedza. Ona somuenzaniso, Gerber and Green (2000) , Imai (2005) , uye Gerber and Green (2005) yegakava pamusoro implementation ane kunzwisisa munda yetsvakurudzo pamusoro kuvhota. Kohavi et al. (2012) uye Kohavi et al. (2013) kugovera sumo kupinda matambudziko penguva ukoshi pakombuyuta mumunda kuedza.

Chimwe chikuru hanya nezvinhu womukati ukoshi ndiko nezvinetso randomization. Imwe nzira nezvemakuhwa angangokuvadza kuona nezvinetso randomization ndiko kuenzanisa kurapa uye masimba nemapoka ari kuoneka unhu. Mhando iyi kuenzanisa inonzi pachiyero cheki. Ona Hansen and Bowers (2008) kuti nhamba nzira yokufudza macheki, uye ona Mutz and Pemantle (2015) kuti kunetseka pamusoro nepakati macheki. Somuenzaniso, achishandisa chiyereso tarisa Allcott (2011) vakawana kuti pane vamwe uchapupu hwokuti randomization haana chinozoiswa zvakarurama muna vatatu kuedza mune dzimwe OPower kuedza (ona Table 2; nzvimbo 2, 6, uye 8). Nokuti dzimwe nzira, ona Imbens and Rubin (2015) , Chitsauko 21.

Other zvinokunetsa zvikuru chokuita womukati ukoshi ndiwo: 1) Mumwe madziro isiri nokuteerera, apo havasi vose vari muboka kurapwa chaizvoizvo vakagamuchira kurapwa, 2) vaviri vakatsigira isiri nokuteerera, apo havasi vose vari muboka pakurapa anogamuchira kurapwa uye vamwe vanhu vari kudzora boka kugamuchira kurapwa, 3) attrition, apo zvaitika hadzina kuyerwa vamwe vechikamu, uye 4) kupindira, apo mishonga inorasikira pamusoro pavanhu vari kurapwa ezvinhu vanhu vari kudzora mumamiriro. Ona Gerber and Green (2012) Zvitsauko 5, 6, 7, uye 8 mamwe pamusoro mumwe nomumwe nyaya idzi.

Kuti uwane pamusoro kuvaka ukoshi, ona Westen and Rosenthal (2003) , uye mamwe ari kuvaka ukoshi mune guru mashoko zvinyorwa, Lazer (2015) uye muChitsauko 2 chebhuku rino.

Chimwe kwokunze ukoshi ndiwo marongero umo kupindira kunoedzwa. Allcott (2015) inopa nokungwarira yokungotaura uye empirical kurapwa nzvimbo kusarudzwa kusasarura. Nyaya iyi inokurukurwawo Deaton (2010) . Mukuwedzera kuitwa replicated mune nzvimbo zhinji, Home Energy Report kupindira yavewo vakazvimiririra kudzidza kuburikidza vakawanda mapoka tsvakurudzo (semuenzaniso, Ayres, Raseman, and Shih (2013) ).

• Heterogeneity kurapwa zvinokonzerwa (Section 4.4.2)

Nokuti chakanakisisa muchidimbu heterogeneity kurapwa migumisiro mumunda kuedza, ona Chitsauko 12 Gerber and Green (2012) . Nokuti okutanga heterogeneity kurapwa migumisiro mumiedzo zvokurapa, ona Kent and Hayward (2007) , Longford (1999) , uye Kravitz, Duan, and Braslow (2004) . Heterogeneity kurapwa zvinokonzerwa kazhinji kufunga kusiyana yakavakirwa pre-kurapwa unhu. Kana uchifarira heterogeneity yakavakirwa post-kurapwa zvaitika, ipapo approachs zvikuru kunzwisisa anodiwa zvakadai chikuru stratification (Frangakis and Rubin 2002) ; ona Page et al. (2015) kuti kudzokorora.

Vatsvakurudzi vazhinji vanofungidzira heterogeneity kurapa zvinokonzerwa vachishandisa Linear regression, asi nzira vatsva kuvimba muchina kudzidza, somuenzaniso Green and Kern (2012) , Imai and Ratkovic (2013) , Taddy et al. (2016) , uye Athey and Imbens (2016a) .

Pane vamwe kasingaperi pamusoro zvakawanwa heterogeneity pamusoro zvinokonzerwa nokuti vakawanda kuenzanisa matambudziko uye "hove." Kune siyana uwandu nzira dzinogona kubatsira nezvokunetseka kero pamusoro vakawanda kuenzanisa (Fink, McConnell, and Vollmer 2014; List, Shaikh, and Xu 2016) . Imwe nzira nezvemhosva "hove" ndizvo pre-kunyoresa, riri kuramba zvakajairika zvepfungwa (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , political sainzi (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) , uye nemari (Olken 2015) .

Mukudzidza Costa and Kahn (2013) chete inenge hafu mhuri vari kuedza vakakwanisa kuva chokuita kuti wevanotungamirira mashoko. Vaverengi kuziva mashoko uye matambudziko zvinogoneka ongororo iyi kunofanira kureva chepakutanga mapepa.

• Zvenhengo (Section 4.4.3)

Zvenhengo vari chinopa kukosha, asi ivo vakatendeuka kuti zvakaoma chaizvo kudzidza. Research pamusoro zvenhengo raikonzerwa adzidze nevamiririri vari wepfungwa (asi onawo VanderWeele (2009) kuti chaiwo kuenzanisa pakati pfungwa mbiri). Statistical Nzira yokuwana zvenhengo dzakadai nzira yakagadzirwa muna Baron and Kenny (1986) , zvikuru zvakajairika. Zvinosuwisa, zvinoitika kuti maitirwo avo vanovimba dzimwe zvekungofungira simba (Bullock, Green, and Ha 2010) uye kutambura kana paine akawanda zvenhengo somunhu anogona kutarisira mumamiriro ezvinhu akawanda (Imai and Yamamoto 2013; VanderWeele and Vansteelandt 2014) . Imai et al. (2011) uye Imai and Yamamoto (2013) kupa vamwe nani uwandu nzira. Uyezve, VanderWeele (2015) inopa bhuku-urefu kurapa ane nhamba inokosha zvabuda, kusanganisira misoro ainoita utetsa kuongorora.

A vakaparadzana kusvika chinotarisa kuedza kuti vanoedza kukorovhera mashandiro zvakananga (semuenzaniso, achipa vezvikepe vhitamini C). Zvinosuruvarisa dzakawanda mezviruva evanhu sayenzi pane kazhinji akawanda zvenhengo uye zvakaoma kugadzira mishonga kuti kuchinja pasina kuchinja vamwe. Vamwe Nzira kuti experimentally rinochinja zvenhengo zvinotsanangurwa Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto (2013) , Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan (2011) , uye Pirlott and MacKinnon (2016) .

Pakupedzisira, zvenhengo vanewo refu munhoroondo uzivi sayenzi sezvo rakarondedzerwa Hedström and Ylikoski (2010) .

• Kushandisa huripo runyararo (Section 4.5.1.1)

Kuti uwane pakushandisa tsamba zvidzidzo uye odhita zvidzidzo kuyera rusaruro ona Pager (2007) .

• Vakira yako kuedza (Section 4.5.1.2)

The inonyanya nzira rokutsvaka vatori vechikamu kuti kuedza kuti iwe kuvaka ndiye Amazon Mechanical Zimbabwe Turk (MTurk). Nekuti MTurk mimics zvinhu tsika yezvirwere kuedza anobhadhara vanhu kupedza mabasa kuti varege kuita kuti vaongorori vakasununguka-zhinji Wakatotanga tichishandisa Turkers (vashandi MTurk) sevatori vechikamu mumamiriro dzevanhu zvidzidzo kuedza zvichizoita nokukurumidza uye isingadhuri date muunganidzwa pane chinyakare pamusoro-kembasi rabhoritari kuedza (Paolacci, Chandler, and Ipeirotis 2010; Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012; Rand 2012; Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) .

The zvikuru simba kuedza vane vechikamu basa kubva MTurk ndivo logistical: vanobvumira vatsvakurudzi rokutsvaka vechikamu nokukurumidza uye sezvinodiwa. Nepo yezvirwere kuedza vanogona kutora mavhiki kumhanya uye munda kuedza zvinogona kutora mwedzi kumisa-up, kuedza vane vechikamu basa kubva MTurk inogona kumhanya mumazuva. Somuenzaniso, Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz (2012) vakakwanisa rokutsvaka zvidzidzo 400 nezuva rimwe chete kuti chikamu 8 miniti kuedza. Uyezve, vatori izvi zvinogona basa nokuti chinenge chero chinangwa (kusanganisira kuongorora uye vakawanda kutsigirana, sezvinotaurwa munyaya Zvitsauko 3 5). zororo iri muchiuto zvinoreva kuti vaongorori vanogona kumhanya mibairo pamusoro anoenderana kuedza akatevedzana.

Asati vanopinza vanhu vanobva MTurk nokuda kwako kuedza, pane zvinhu zvina zvinokosha kuziva. Chokutanga, vaongorori vakawanda asiri dzakananga kasingaperi pamusoro kuedza chokuita Turkers. Nekuti kusava nechokwadi ichi hachisi chaizvo, zvakaoma kuti vadzivirire hwokuti. Zvisinei, pashure pemakore anoverengeka yezvidzidzo tichishandisa Turkers, tinogona ikozvino kugumisa kuti kusava nechokwadi ichi hachisi kunyanya zvakakodzera. Pane zvave zvidzidzo zvakawanda achienzanisa Demographics pamusoro Turkers vamwe vakawanda uye zvidzidzo zvakawanda kuenzanisa migumisiro kuedza pamwe Turkers migumisiro nedzimwe nhamba. Akapiwa basa rose iri, ndinofunga kuti nzira yakanakisisa yokuti nezvazvo ndechokuti Turkers vari musoro kurerukirwa yokuenzanisira, kufanana vadzidzi asi zvishoma zvikuru siyana (Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) . Saka, sezvo vadzidzi ndiwo musoro vakawanda vamwe asi kwete vose experimental tsvakurudzo, Turkers ndivo musoro vakawanda vamwe asi kwete tsvakurudzo zvose. Kana uchizopa kushanda Turkers, ipapo zvine musoro kuverenga zvakawanda zvidzidzo izvi okufananidza uye kunzwisisa nuances dzavo.

Chechipiri, vaongorori vakatanga yakanakisisa-tsika kuti kuwedzera womukati anomutora Zimbabwe Turk kuedza, uye iwe unofanira kudzidza nezvake uye kutevera zvinhu zvakanakisisa-tsika (Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012) . Somuenzaniso, vaongorori vachishandisa Turkers vanokurudzirwa kushandisa screeners kubvisa inattentive vechikamu (Berinsky, Margolis, and Sances 2014; Berinsky, Margolis, and Sances 2016) (asi onawo DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015b) uye DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015a) ). Kana musingadi kubvisa inattentive vechikamu ipapo zvainoita ari kurapwa zvinogona kusukwa kunze ruzha akasuma kubva inattentive vechikamu, uye muitiro nhamba inattentive vatori vechikamu vanogona kuva nouchapupu. In kuedza pamusoro Huber uye nevamwe (2012) 30% yevanhu vechikamu vakakundikana chikuru nzeve screeners. Chimwe chinetso chokufananidza Turkers ndiye non-mano vechikamu (Chandler et al. 2015) .

Chechitatu, hama kune mamwe marudzi digitaalinen kuedza, MTurk kuedza haagoni kukwira; Stewart et al. (2015) inofungidzira kuti pane chero nguva pane chete vanenge 7,000 vanhu pamusoro MTurk.

Pakupedzisira, unofanira kuziva kuti MTurk ari munharaunda pachedu mitemo yaro uye dzemunharaunda (Mason and Suri 2012) . Saizvozvowo kuti kuedza kuziva nezvenguva tsika imwe nyika kwamusina kuenda kumhanya kuedza ako, unofanira kuedza kuwana zvakawanda pamusoro tsika uye dzemunharaunda pamusoro Turkers (Salehi et al. 2015) . Uye, unofanira kuziva kuti Turkers vachange kutaura kuedza kwako kana muchiita chinhu kukodzera kana unethical (Gray et al. 2016) .

MTurk inzira chinopa nzira yakatinakira rokutsvaka vechikamu kuedza kwako, kana vari yezvirwere-akafanana, zvakadai Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) , kana kupfuura munda-zvakadai, akadai Mason and Watts (2009) , Goldstein, McAfee, and Suri (2013) , Goldstein et al. (2014) , Horton and Zeckhauser (2016) , uye Mao et al. (2016) .

• Vakira yako chigadzirwa (Section 4.5.1.3)

Kana uri kufunga kuedza kusika rako chigadzirwa, I vanoti kuti ukaverenga zano inopiwa MovieLens boka iri Harper and Konstan (2015) . Chinhu chinokosha kunzwisisa kubva ruzivo rwavo kuti chimwe nechimwe akabudirira pabasa kune vazhinji, kakawanda. Somuenzaniso, MovieLens boka yakatanga nezvimwewo zvakadai GopherAnswers vaiva kukundikana rakakwana (Harper and Konstan 2015) . Mumwe muenzaniso mutsvakurudzi kukundikana apo vachiedza kuvaka chigadzirwa ndiye Edward Castronova kuti kuedza kuti avake mutambo paIndaneti inonzi Arden. Pasinei $ 250,000 vari mari, basa rokuvaka rakanga chips on whitekuva (Baker 2008) . Projects akafanana GopherAnswers uye Arden vari zvinosuruvarisa zvikuru zvinozivikanwa pane zvirongwa zvakafanana MovieLens. Pakupedzisira, apo ndakati kuti ndakanga ndisingazivi zvimwe vatsvakurudzi kuti vakanga vakabudirira akavaka zvinhu nokuda akadzokorora kwacho pano ndivo wangu dzekuziva: 1) vechikamu anoshandisa chigadzirwa nemhaka chii rinopa navo (semuenzaniso, havana hazvibhadharwi uye havasi vazvipiri kubatsira science) uye 2) chigadzirwa yave kushandiswa vanopfuura mumwe akasiyana kuedza (kureva, kwete chete kuedza akawanda nguva pamwe dzakasiyana mukwikwidzi madziva). Kana uchiziva vamwe mienzaniso, ndapota munoziva.

• Partner pamwe simba (Section 4.5.2)

Ndanzwa pfungwa Pasteur kuti Quadrant inokurukurwa kakawanda panguva Tech makambani, uye zvinobatsira kuronga tsvakurudzo kuitwa panguva Google (Spector, Norvig, and Petrov 2012) .

Bond uye nevamwe 'kudzidza (2012) Uyewo unoedza kuona mugumisiro kurapwa izvi pamusoro shamwari yevaya akavagamuchira. Nokuda pamasikiro kuedza, spillovers aya zvakaoma kuona cleanly; Vaverengi vanofarira vanofanira kuona Bond et al. (2012) kuti kwokukurukurwa. Kuedza Ichi chikamu refu tsika kuedza musayenzi enyika ari kuedza kukurudzira voting (Green and Gerber 2015) . Ava zvokukurumidza panze-the-sarudzo kuedza nevakawanda chikamu nokuti vari Pasteur raMwari Quadrant. Ndiko, kune vanhu vakawanda vari uchida kuwedzera kuvhota uye kuvhota zvinogona inonakidza maitiro yokuedza mamwemazwi nezvemutauro unhu uye magariro simba.

Vamwe vatsvakurudzi zvakapa zano pamusoro achimhanya munda kuedza naye nemasangano dzakadai ezvematongwerwe enyika, maNGO, uye mabhizimisi (Loewen, Rubenson, and Wantchekon 2010; List 2011; Gueron 2002) . Vamwe vakauya zano sei kudyidzana nemasangano vanogona nechirongwa tsvakurudzo mazano (Green, Calfano, and Aronow 2014; King et al. 2007) . Partnership kunogona kutungamirira mibvunzo yetsika (Humphreys 2015; Nickerson and Hyde 2016) .

• Design zano (Section 4,6)

Kana uchizopa kusika kuongorora chirongwa asati achimhanya kuedza kwako, ini pfungwa kuti imi kutanga nokurava nhau nhungamiro. The Vahosi (Consolidated Standard Kushuma Miedzo) Mirayiridzo yakagadzirwa mukurapa (Schulz et al. 2010) uye zvakachinjwa kuti mumagariro tsvakurudzo (Mayo-Wilson et al. 2013) . A kufanana akagadzirwa Mirayiridzo pokuikurukura kubudikidza Vapepeti Journal of experimental Political Science (Gerber et al. 2014) (ona zvakare Mutz and Pemantle (2015) uye Gerber et al. (2015) ). Pakupedzisira, kushuma nhungamiro dzave yakatangawo zvepfungwa (Group 2008) , uye onawo Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn (2011) .

Kana ukaronga kuongorora chirongwa unofanira kufunga pre-kunyoresa nokuti pre-kunyoresa kuchawedzera chivimbo chokuti vamwe vane migumisiro dzenyu. Uyezve, kana uri kushanda pamwe naye, izvozvo zvichaita kungorara mudiwa wako anogona kuchinja kuongorora pashure pokuona nemigumisiro. Pre-kunyoresa zviri kuramba zvakajairika zvepfungwa (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , political sainzi (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) , uye nemari (Olken 2015) .

Nepo zvinhu zvenyu pre-ongororo chirongwa unofanira kuziva kuti vamwe vatsvakurudzi uyewo kushandisa regression ndokurondedzera nzira kuvandudza zvakarurama pamusoro Zvinofungidzirwa kurapwa zvazviri, uye paine makakatanwa pamusoro nzira iyi: Freedman (2008) , Lin (2013) , uye Berk et al. (2013) ; ona Bloniarz et al. (2016) kuti uwane mamwe mashoko.

Design zano zvakananga nokuda paIndaneti munda kuedza kuri pamberi muna Konstan and Chen (2007) uye Chen and Konstan (2015) .

• Create razero shanduka mari Data (Section 4.6.1)

Kuti uwane pamusoro MusicLab kuedza, ona Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006) , Salganik and Watts (2008) , Salganik and Watts (2009b) , Salganik and Watts (2009a) , uye Salganik (2007) . Kuti uwane pamusoro weNobel-tora-zvose pamisika, ona Frank and Cook (1996) . Kuti uwane pamusoro untangling nemhanza uye unyanzvi zvakanyanya kazhinji, ona Mauboussin (2012) , Watts (2012) , uye Frank (2016) .

Pane imwe nzira kubvisa mukwikwidzi mari kuti vatsvakurudzi vanofanira kushandisa nokungwarira: kuhondo. In dzakawanda paIndaneti munda kuedza vechikamu vanotofanira vaitorwa kupinda kuedza uye haana ndanyarara hangu. Mienzaniso nzira iyi vanosanganisira Restivo uye Van De Rijt raMwari (2012) Kuedza pamusoro mibayiro muna Wikipedia uye Bond uye bhururu wacho (2012) Kuedza chokukurudzira vanhu kuvhota. kuedza izvi here kuva razero shanduka mutengo, vane razero shanduka mutengo nevaongorori. Kunyange zvazvo mari dzakawanda kuedza izvi iduku chaizvo kune imwe neimwe yeboka, zviduku mari zvavakatemwa wakakura vatori vechikamu vanogona kuwedzera nekukurumidza. Vatsvakurudzi vaimhanya wandisa paIndaneti kuedza kakawanda kupembedza kukosha duku vanofungidzirwa kurapwa migumisiro nokutaura kuti izvi zviduku Migumisiro kunogona kuva kunokosha kana kushandisirwa vanhu vakawanda. The chaiyo chete mafungiro zvinoshanda mari kuti vatsvakurudzi kumanikidza vechikamu. Kana kuedza rako richikuita vanhu miriyoni imwe kutambiswa miniti rimwe, kuedza haikuvadzi chaizvo chero ufambidzane munhu, asi ari uwandu hwezvinhu zvose zvabatanidzwa. rwakaramba zvaparadzwa anenge makore maviri nguva.

Chimwe kusvika asika razero shanduka mutengo muripo kuna vechikamu ndiko kushandisa rotari, imwe nzira kuti rave kushandiswa pakutsvakurudza ongororo (Halpern et al. 2011) . Pakupedzisira, nokuti zvakawanda pamusoro afunge hunakidze User-zvakaitika ona Toomim et al. (2011) .

• Tsiva, Natsai, uye Deredzai (Section 4.6.2)

Hedzinoi chepakutanga tsanangudzo vatatu R, kubva Russell and Burch (1959) :

"Replacement zvinoreva achigamuchira nokuda vanoziva mhuka insentient zvinhu zvipenyu yepamusorosoro. Rutapudzo zvinoreva zvinoderedza nhamba zvemhuka zvinoshandiswa vawane mashoko ane mari yakapiwa uye zvakarurama. Chakagadziridzwa zvinoreva chero vasanyanye kuitika kana kwokuomerwa zvoutsinye maitirwo kushandisirwa mhuka idzo vachiri kushandiswa. "

Vatatu R kuti ini zvamaronga regai kudarika penyaya dzemitemo anorondedzerwa muChitsauko 6. Asi, ivo yakawanda akarondedzera shanduro mumwe wevaya dzemitemo-beneficence-zvakananga nokuda panovira kuedza kwevanhu.

Pamunenge muchikurukura Emotional Contagion, kune vatatu non-chemufungo nyaya kuyeuka apo nokududzira chiedzwa ichi. Chokutanga, hazvina pachena sei chaiwo mashoko kuedza kubatanidza kuti yokungotaura dzinofunga; mune mamwe manzwi, pane mibvunzo pamusoro vavake ukoshi. Hazvina kujeka kuti zvakanaka uye kunaka kweshoko Counts vari chaizvoizvo inoratidza kunetsa vechikamu zvakanaka nokuti 1) hakusi pachena kuti mashoko vanhu kuposita vari chokukomborerwa manzwiro avo akanaka uye 2) hazvisi pachena kuti chaiwo manzwiro kuongorora unyanzvi kuti vaongorori vaishandisa anokwanisa yakavimbika infer manzwiro (Beasley and Mason 2015; Panger 2016) . Nemamwe mashoko, pangava chiyero yakaipa vakarerekera rimwe divi chiratidzo. Chechipiri, magadzirirwo uye kuongorora kuedza rinotiudza chinhu pamusoro akanga kupfuura rinoitei (kureva, hapana kuongorora heterogeneity kurapwa nemigumisiro) uye chii mashandiro angava. Panyaya iyi, vaongorori vakanga mijenya mashoko pamusoro vechikamu asi vakanga vanotova sevanhu Widgets vari kuongorora. Chechitatu, mugumisiro kukura mune kuedza ichi muduku zvikuru; kusiyana kurapwa uye masimba ezvinhu anenge 1 muna 1,000 nemashoko. In mapepa avo, Kramer nevaaishanda navo kuti nyaya kuti mugumisiro kukura ichi zvinokosha nokuti mazana emamiriyoni evanhu kuwana News wavo Fudzai rimwe zuva. Nemamwe mashoko, ivo vanoti kunyange migumisiro zvidiki kuti mumwe munhu vari makuru uwandu hwezvinhu zvose zvabatanidzwa.. Kunyange kudai kugamuchira nharo ichi, zvichiri kwete pachena kana kubatsira kukura iyi inokosha panyaya mubvunzo pamusoro mupfungwa contagion zvikuru rwevanhu zvesayenzi. Kuti uwane pamusoro ezvinhu apo duku zvinokonzerwa zvinokosha kuona Prentice and Miller (1992) .

In mashoko okutanga R (Replacement), achienzanisa Emotional Contagion kuedza (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) uye mupfungwa contagion dzinongoitika kuedza (Coviello et al. 2014) inopa zvidzidzo zvavo pamusoro kutengeserana-offs nechokuita kutamira kubva kuedza kuti dzinongoitika kuedza (uye dzimwe nzira dzakaita chienderane kuti kuedza kuti paiva kuedza mune dzisiri experimental data, ona Chitsauko 2). Kuwedzera penyaya makomborero, nokuchinja kubva experimental vasiri experimental zveBhaibheri uyewo inoita vatsvakurudzi kudzidza kurapwa kuti vari logistically vasingakwanisi dhipuroya. Zvisinei izvi penyaya logistical zvinobatsira panguva imwe mari,. With dzinongoitika kuedza vaongorori vane zvishoma kudzora zvinhu zvakafanana muchiuto evakurukuri, randomization, uye hunhu kurapwa. Somuenzaniso, mumwe chipingidzo mvura sezvo kurapa ndechokuti zvose kunowedzera positivity uye zvinoderedza negativity. Zvisinei, muna experimental kudzidza, Kramer uye vatinoshanda navo vakakwanisa kuchinja positivity uye negativity yakazvimiririra.

The chaiyo kusvika yaishandiswa Coviello et al. (2014) akanga mamwe nezvo muna Coviello, Fowler, and Franceschetti (2014) . Kuti sumo kuti batsira chaizvo variables ona Angrist and Pischke (2009) (shoma yokuchikoro) kana Angrist, Imbens, and Rubin (1996) (neyebhizimisi). Nokuti chokwadi yokunyatsoongorora paku variables ona Deaton (2010) , uye kuti sumo kuti batsira chaizvo variables vane simba zviridzwa (mvura ndiro simba instrument), ona Murray (2006) .

More kazhinji, sumo yakanaka dzinongoitika kuedza ndiro Dunning (2012) , uye Rosenbaum (2002) , Rosenbaum (2009) , uye Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) kupa mazano akanaka pamusoro kupima causal migumisiro pasina kuedza.

In mashoko wechipiri R (chakagadziridzwa), pane zvesayenzi uye logistical wezvokutengeserana-offs pavanofunga kuchinja magadzirirwe Emotional Contagion kubva ichivharira nembiru kuna boosting mbiru. Somuenzaniso, kungava nyaya kuti zvekushandisa implementation yacho News Feed anoita zviri substantially nyore kuita chinhu kuedza ichivharira mbiru pane kuedza boosting namagwatidziro (ona kuti kuedza ichivharira namagwatidziro vaigona chinozoiswa sezvo paiva pamusoro pamusoro News Feed hurongwa pasina kudikanwa dzainge dzatengwa asi dzisingakwani chaicho hurongwa). Nesayenzi Zvisinei, dzidziso nezita kuedza haana zvakajeka pfungwa imwe kugadzirwa pamusoro mumwe.

Zvisinei, handina kuziva nouchapupu risati tsvakurudzo nezveukama zvemashoko ichivharira uye boosting kugutsikana mune News Feed. Uyewo, handina kumboona kutsvakurudza zvikuru pamusoro yokuchenesa mishonga kuti kuvaita shoma chinokuvadza; kunze ndiye Jones and Feamster (2015) , izvo anofunga nyaya nokuyerwa Internet kusenza (nyaya I muChitsauko 6 ukama kuti encore kudzidza (Burnett and Feamster 2015; Narayanan and Zevenbergen 2015) ).

In mashoko wechitatu R (kuzvideredza), sumo yakanaka nezvaiitwa simba kuongorora zviri Cohen (1988) . Pre-kurapwa covariates zvinogona kubatanidzwawo magadzirirwo pachikuva uye kuongorora padariro kuedza; Chitsauko 4 Gerber and Green (2012) inopa sumo yakanaka zvose nzira, uye Casella (2008) inopa mamwe zvakadzama kurapwa. Nzira kuti kushandisa ichi pre-kurapwa mashoko ari randomization vari yemanyorero inonzi kana makavhara experimental mazano kana stratified experimental mazano (the nemashoko harishandiswi mabhii mhiri munharaunda); unyanzvi izvi zvikuru chokuita stratified zvakabudiswa mitoo muChitsauko 3. Ona Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon (2016) kuti uwane zvimwe pachidobi kushandisa mazano aya ari makuru kuedza. Pre-kurapwa covariates kunogonawo waibatanidzwa kuongorora rwakazara. McKenzie (2012) rinoongorora musiyano-mu-kusiyana nzira pokuongorora munda kuedza kuchakurukurwa zvakadzama. Ona Carneiro, Lee, and Wilhelm (2016) kuti uwane pamusoro kutengeserana-offs pakati akasiyana nzira kuwedzera zvakarurama munyika inofungidzirwa kurapwa migumisiro. Pakupedzisira, apo kusarudza kuedza zvinosanganisira kuvapo kurapwa covariates nemagadzirirwo kana ongororo rwakazara (kana zvose), pane zvishomanana zvokufunga nezvazvo. Mune ezvinhu umo vaongorori vanoda kuratidza kuti havasi "hove" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , achishandisa pre-kurapwa covariates pamasikiro rwakazara kunogona kubatsira (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) . Mumamiriro ezvinhu umo vatori vechikamu vasvika sequentially, kunyanya paIndaneti munda kuedza, vachishandisa pre-kurapwa mashoko pamasikiro rwakazara kungava kwakaoma logistically, ona Somuenzaniso Xie and Aurisset (2016) .

Zvinokurudzirwa achiwedzera zvishoma kunzwisisa nei musiyano-mu-kusiyana zvinogona zvikuru kubudirira saka pane musiyano-mu-nzira. Zvaitika zhinji paIndaneti vane yakakwirira kwazvo kutsaura (ona semuenzaniso, Lewis and Rao (2015) uye Lamb et al. (2015) ) uye zvinoitika akatsiga pamusoro nguva. Panyaya iyi, kuchinja zvibodzwa vachava makakava substantially chiduku, kuwedzera simba uwandu bvunzo. Chimwe chikonzero ichi akaswedera harina kushandiswa kakawanda ndechokuti asati digitaalinen zera akanga asiri zvakajairika kuti pre-kurapwa zvaitika. A zvikuru kongiri nzira kufunga nezvazvo kuti kufungidzira imwe kuedza kuyera kana yakananga maekisesaizi kunokonzera uremu. Kana kuita musiyano-mu-rinoreva nzira, wako kufungidzira achava variability rinobva variability muna Zviidzo vemo. Zvisinei, kana iwe ukaita musiyano-mu-musiyano nzira, kuti ndezvomuzvarirwo yokuvamba kusiyana Zviidzo chinozadzwa kubviswa uye unogona kuona nyore musiyano anokonzerwa kurapwa.

Imwe nzira inokosha yokuderedza uwandu vechikamu kuedza yenyu kuitisa simba pachisara iyo Kramer uye nevamwe vaigona maita inobva mugumisiro hukuru vakachengeta kubva dzinongoitika kuedza kubudikidza Coviello et al. (2014) kana adarika non-experimental tsvakurudzo kubudikidza Kramer (2012) (Kutaura zvazviri ndiwo mabasa pakupera chitsauko chino). Ona kuti kushandisa iyi simba kuongorora zviri zvishoma zvakasiyana pane zvemo. Munguva analoginen zera, vanotsvakurudza kazhinji akaita simba kuongorora nechokwadi chokuti kudzidza kwavo haana diki (kureva, pasi-Powered). Zvino, zvisinei, vatsvakurudzi vanofanira kuita simba kuongorora kuti nechokwadi chokuti kudzidza kwavo hakusi yakakurisa (kureva, pamusoro-Powered).

Pakupedzisira, Ndakafunga achiwedzera R chechina: Repurpose. Ndiko, kana vaongorori vanozviwana mamwe experimental mashoko pane vanofanira kugadzirisa yavo yepakutanga tsvakurudzo mubvunzo, vanofanira repurpose humboo vabvunze mibvunzo itsva. Somuenzaniso, fungidzira kuti Kramer uye nevamwe vakanga vaishandisa musiyano-mu-kusiyana estimator uye vakawana vakazvisunga zvakawanda mashoko pane zvinodiwa kugadzirisa ravo tsvakurudzo mubvunzo. Pane asina kushandisa mashoko zvizere, vangadai akadzidza kukura maturo sezvo basa kwerubwinyo rwakagara rwuripo-kurapwa mupfungwa mashoko. Sezvo Schultz et al. (2007) vakawana kuti migumisiro kurapa kwakanga akasiyana chiedza uye inorema vanoshandisa, zvichida migumisiro News Feed vakanga vakasiyana vanhu vanotova nomuitiro kuposita kufara (kana kusuruvara) mashoko. Repurposing aigona kutungamirira "hove" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) uye "p-kugura" (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) , asi izvi zviri kunyanya addressable pamwe mubatanidzwa akatendeseka nhau (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) , kuvapo kunyoresa (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , uye nzira muchina pakudzidza kuti vanoedza kudzivisa pamusoro kukunakira.