4.4.1 ukoshi
Ukoshi zvinoreva zvakawanda sei migumisiro ane kuedza kutsigira mamwemazwi mhedziso.
No kuedza akakwana, uye vatsvakurudzi zvakagadzira chaizvo Mutauro kutsanangura matambudziko zvinobvira. Ukoshi zvinoreva pakuti migumisiro imwe kuedza kutsigira vamwe mamwemazwi mhedziso. Masayendisiti Social vakaona zvichibatsira Makakamura ukoshi kupinda nezvemarudzi mana makuru: uwandu mhedziso ukoshi, womukati ukoshi, kuvaka ukoshi, uye zvokunze ukoshi (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, Ch 2) . Mukudzidzira izvi pfungwa kanopa mupfungwa nezvemibvunzo nokuda critiquing uye kuvandudza magadzirirwo uye kuongorora chinhu kuedza, uye richakubatsira kukurukura nevamwe vatsvakurudzi.
Statistical mhedziso ukoshi rinonyanya kumativi kana uwandu kuongorora kuedza zvakaitwa nemazvo. Pane zviri Schultz et al. (2007) Mubvunzo yakadaro kuti zvitatu kana computed yavo S.-tsika nomazvo. Statistical kuongorora zviri chisingakwanisi kutsanangurwa bhuku rino, asi ndinogona kutaura kuti nhamba nenheyo vaifanira kugadzira uye ongorora kuedza hatina akachinja digitaalinen zera. Zvisinei, dzakasiyana mashoko emweya digitaalinen kuedza anoita mikana mitsva nhamba (semuenzaniso, vachishandisa nzira muchina pakudzidza kufungidzira heterogeneity kurapwa nemigumisiro (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) ) uye zvinetso zvitsva computational (semuenzaniso, ichivharira mu muhombe kuedza (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) ).
Internal ukoshi rinonyanya kumativi kana experimental maitirwo ezvinhu Zvaiitirwa nemazvo. Tichidzokera kuedza pamusoro Schultz et al. (2007) , mibvunzo pamusoro womukati ukoshi aigona kuvakwa vakakomba randomization, hurukuro kurapwa, uye nokuyerwa zvaitika. Somuenzaniso, unogona kuva nehanya kuti kutsvakurudza vabatsiri havana kuverenga dzemagetsi mamita yakavimbika. Kutaura zvazviri, Schultz uye nevamwe vaiva kunetseka dambudziko iri uye vakanga nzwisa metres verenga kaviri; Sezvineiwo, migumisiro vakanga vanotova zvakafanana. Kazhinji, Schultz uye nevamwe 'kuedza sokuti kuva mukuru womukati ukoshi, asi ichi hachisi zvazviri nguva dzose; kunzwisisa munda uye paIndaneti kuedza aiwanzoyerera kupinda matambudziko chaizvoizvo achaendesa rworudyi kurapwa kurudyi vanhu uye kuyera zvaitika vose. Sezvineiwo, digitaalinen zera vanogona kubatsira kuderedza kunetseka kwomunyika ukoshi nokuti zvinoita kuti zvive nyore kuti ave nechokwadi kuti kurapa runopiwa sezvo zvakagadzirirwa vaya vakafunga kugamuchira uye kuyera zvaitika kuvatori vechikamu vese.
Kuvaka ukoshi nzvimbo dzakakomberedza mutambo pakati Data uye yokungotaura constructs. Sezvakakurukurwa muChitsauko 2, constructs hadzioneki pfungwa masayendisiti anoongorora magariro evanhu chikonzero pamusoro. Zvinosuruvarisa izvi zvisiri pachena hamuneni zvakajeka tsanangudzo uye kuyerwa. Tichidzokera Schultz et al. (2007) , iyo vanoti injunctive patsika dzemunharaunda Anogona kudzikisa magetsi kushandisa zvinoda vanotsvakurudza kugadzira kurapa chaizoita konzera "injunctive patsika dzemunharaunda" (semuenzaniso, imwe emoticon) uye kuyera "magetsi kushandiswa". In analoginen kuedza, vaongorori vakawanda yakagadzirirwa kurapa dzavo uye akayera zvaitika dzavo. Izvi zvinoita kuti, zvikuru kwazvo sezvinobvira, ari kuedza zvienderane chaihwoihwo constructs kuitwa kudzidzwa. In digitaalinen kuedza apo vatsvakurudzi naye mapoka kana dzihurumende kuti anunure kurapwa uye kushandisa nguva dzose-pasi date gadziriro kuyera zvaitika, mutambo pakati kuedza uye yokungotaura constructs kungava zvishoma zvakasimba. Saka, ini kutarisira kuti avake ukoshi vanowanzotevedzera kuva hombe kunetsa digitaalinen kuedza kupfuura analoginen kuedza.
Pakupedzisira, kunze ukoshi rinonyanya kumativi kana migumisiro yetsvakurudzo ichi chaizoita generalize kune mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu. Tichidzokera Schultz et al. (2007) , mumwe aigona kubvunza, vachaparidza ichi pfungwa yakafanana-kupa vanhu ruzivo pamusoro simba ravo kushandiswa mune ukama vezera ravo uye chiratidzo chokunyevera injunctive dzemunharaunda (semuenzaniso, imwe emoticon) -reduce simba kushandiswa kana zvakanga zvaitwa nenzira yakasiyana mune zvakasiyana ezvinhu? Nokuti vakawanda zvakanaka akagadzira uye zvakanaka-mhanya kuedza, nezvemhosva kwokunze ukoshi ndivo chakaomesesa kugadzirisa. Kare, nharo izvi pamusoro zvokunze ukoshi vaiva kazhinji chete boka vanhu vagere mumba kuedza kufungidzira chii chingadai chakaitika kudai nzira zvakaitwa nenzira yakasiyana, kana nenzira yakasiyana nzvimbo, kana nevanhu vakasiyana. Sezvineiwo, digitaalinen zera inoita vatsvakurudzi kufamba mberi izvi date isina nokufungidzira uye kuongorora kwokunze ukoshi empirically.
Nokuti unobva Schultz et al. (2007) zvakanga zvakadaro hunonakidza, kambani ainzi Opower partnered pamwe utilities muUnited States kuti dhipuroya kurapwa yainyanya. Zvichienderana magadzirirwe Schultz et al. (2007) , Opower anosikwa customized Home Energy Mishumo yaiva modules huru mbiri, imwe kuratidza mhuri kuti magetsi kushandiswa hama vavakidzani ayo ane emoticon uye mumwe kugovera mazano nokuda richikwidibira simba kushandiswa (Figure 4,6). Zvadaro, vaishanda pamwe Vanotsvakurudza, Opower akamhanya randomized dzinodzorwa kuedza kuti woongorora mugumisiro of Home Energy Reports. Kunyange zvazvo mishonga iri kuedza aya sezviri kurwira mumuviri-kazhinji kuburikidza yekare zvechinyakare nedhambakura tsamba-zvaizoguma akanga akayera kushandisa digitaalinen mano munyika chaiyo (semuenzaniso, simba mamita). Pane manually nekunhonga mashoko aya pamwe pakutsvakurudza vabatsiri kushanyira imba imwe neimwe, Opower kuedza zvakaitika zvose achidyidzana nesimba makambani zvichiita vaongorori kuwana simba kuverengwa. Saka, izvi zvishoma digitaalinen munda kuedza vakanga dzinovangira panguva hombe chikero yakaderera shanduka mutengo.
Figure 4.6: The Home Energy Mishumo Allcott (2011) aiva Social Kuenzanisa Module uye ane Action Matanho Module.
In muenzaniso wokutanga kuedza chokuita 600,000 dzimba kushumirwa 10 utility Makambani akapoteredza United States, Allcott (2011) akawana Home Energy Report wakaderedzera magetsi kudyiwa 1,7%. Nemamwe mashoko, migumisiro kubva yakakura, zvikuru munharaunda yakakura dzakasiyana kudzidza vakanga qualitatively yakafanana kunobva Schultz et al. (2007) . Asi, mugumisiro kukura kwakanga duku: muna Schultz et al. (2007) semhuri iri rairatidza uye injective dzemunharaunda ezvinhu (imwe chete emoticon) kwakaderedza kwavo magetsi kushandiswa nokuda 5%. Chaiyo Chikonzero musiyano uyu isingazivikanwi, asi Allcott (2011) Nokuverenga kuti kugamuchira noruoko emoticon sechikamu kudzidza tichitsigirwa imwe yunivhesiti muve chikuru zvazvinoita maitiro pane kugamuchira rakadhindwa emoticon sechikamu vakawanda anobudiswa mushumo kubva simba kambani.
Uyezve, muna unozotevera tsvakurudzo, Allcott (2015) akashuma kwemimwezve 101 kuedza dzinobatanidza kwemimwezve mamiriyoni 8 nemhuri. In izvi chinotevera 101 kuedza yeHome Energy Report akaramba kuti vanhu tikarega yavo magetsi kuparadzwa, asi zvinokonzerwa vakanga kunyange chiduku. Chaiyo Chikonzero kuderera uku hakusi kuvazivisa, asi Allcott (2015) Nokuverenga kuti kubudirira rokunzwikwa akazviratidza kuti kuderera pamusoro nguva nokuti chaizvoizvo riri kushandiswa mhando dzakasiyana-siyana vechikamu. More zvakananga, utilities zvakawanda zvakatikomberedza nzvimbo dzakanga kazhinji kushandisa chirongwa yapfuura uye vatengi vavo vainyanya vanoteerera kurapwa. Sezvo utilities mashaya zvezvakatipoteredza vatengi kushandisa purogiramu, kushanda kwayo akazviratidza kusviba. Saka, sezvo randomization vari kuedza zvinoita kuti boka pakurapa uye masimba akafanana, randomization pakutsvakurudza nzvimbo zvinoita kuti vanofungidzira inogona generalized kubva rimwe boka vechikamu kuti mamwemazwi vakawanda (kufunga Chapter 3 pamusoro zvakabudiswa). Kana pakutsvakurudza Nzvimbo vasiri vakatora randomly, ipapo kungotaurawo-kunyange kubva zvakakwana yakagadzirwa uye chakaitiswa kuedza-kunogona kuva matambudziko.
Pamwe chete, izvi 111 kuedza-10 muna Allcott (2011) uye 101 muna Allcott (2015) -involved vanenge mamiriyoni 8.5 nemhuri kubva pamusoro kuUnited States. Ivo dzinogara kuratidza kuti Home Energy Mishumo kuderedza avhareji magetsi kuparadzwa, somugumisiro kuti anotsigira yepakutanga zvakawanwa Schultz uye nevamwe kubva 300 mumisha muCalifornia. Beyond chete replicating zvawanikwa izvi yepakutanga, iyo kutevera-up kuedza kuratidza kuti kukura kushanda-siyana pedyo nzvimbo. Wakaisa uku kuedza inojekesawo mamwe maviri mukuru pfungwa pamusoro zvishoma digitaalinen munda kuedza. Chokutanga, vatsvakurudzi achakwanisa empirically zvinonetsa kero pamusoro kwokunze ukoshi apo mari achimhanya kuedza zviri pasi, izvi zvinogona kuitika kana zvaizoguma iri ndotodururwa kuyerwa ane nguva dzose-pane mashoko hurongwa. Naizvozvo, kunoratidza kuti kutsvakurudza chinofanira pamusoro akacherekedza-panze zvimwe zvinonakidza uye zvinokosha dzinoita kuti ndotodururwa zvakanyorwa, uye ipapo kusika kuedza pamusoro ichi zviripo tambo kwezvivako. Chechipiri, yakatarwa iyi kuedza anotiyeuchidza kuti digitaalinen munda kuedza havasi paIndaneti; kuwedzera Ini kutarisira kuti vachava kwose kwose zvaitika zhinji kuyerwa sensors ari akavaka zvakatipoteredza.
Mhando ina ukoshi-nhamba mhedziso ukoshi, womukati ukoshi, kuvaka ukoshi, zvokunze ukoshi-kupa nezvemibvunzo pfungwa kubatsira vatsvakurudzi kuongorora kuti kunobva imwe kuedza kutsigira mamwemazwi mhedziso. Zvichienzaniswa analoginen zera kuedza, mune digitaalinen zera kuedza zvinofanira nyore kugadzirisa zvokunze ukoshi empirically uye zvinofanira kuva nyore nechokwadi zvemukati ukoshi. Ukuwo, nyaya pakuvaka ukoshi pamwe kuome mune digitaalinen zera kuedza (kunyange yaiva handizvo zvakaita Opower kuedza).
