2.4.2 kufungidzira uye nowcasting
Zvichaitika zvakaoma, asi vachifanotaura choupfu nyore.
Wechipiri chikuru nzira dzinoshandiswa vaongorori vane observational Data ari kufungidzira. Zvichaitika riri mukurumbira zvakaoma, asi kunogona kusimba zvakakosha VANOTONGA, vangave kushanda mumapoka kana hurumende.
Kleinberg et al. (2015) inopa nyaya mbiri kuti kujekesa kukosha kufungidzira kuti zvimwe matambudziko itsika. Fungidzira rimwe gwara maker, Ndicharipira wake Anna, uyo kutarisana kwemvura uye anofanira kusarudza kuhaya nemushamani kuita mvura kudhanzi kuwedzera mukana mvura. Mumwe muiti mitemo, Ndichaenda achimuti Bob, vanofanira kusarudza kuti kutora amburera kushanda kudzivisa kuwana nyoro munzira kumusha. Vose Anna uye Bob anogona kuita chisarudzo nani kana kunzwisisa okunze, asi vanofanira kuziva zvinhu zvakasiyana. Anna anofanira kunzwisisa kana mvura kutamba kunokonzera mvura. Bob, Ukuwo, haafaniri kunzwisisa chinhu pamusoro Matambudziko; Iye chete inoda ane kushurudzira yakarurama. Vatsvakurudzi Social kazhinji pfungwa pane Kleinberg et al. (2015) dana "mvura kutamba-kufanana" matambudziko avo mutemo kuti kuisa pfungwa Matambudziko-uye vasingateereri zvinetso "amburera-zvakadai" mutemo kuti vari vakaomerera kufungidzira.
Ndinoda Zvisinei, pfungwa, pane chinokosha kufungidzira inonzi nowcasting mhando -zita izwi rakabva tichibatanidza "zvino" uye 'kufungidzira. "Pane zvichaitika, nowcasting kuedza kufungidzira chipo (Choi and Varian 2012) . Nemamwe mashoko, nowcasting anoshandisa kufungidzira nzira matambudziko yakayerwa. Zvazvakadaro, zvinofanira kunyanya kubatsira hurumende avo zvinoda yakakodzera uye yakarurama matanho pamusoro kunyika yavo. Nowcasting inogona kutsanangurwa zvakajeka zvikuru nomuenzaniso Google flu Trends.
Fungidzira kuti uri kunzwa zvishoma pasi okunze saka iwe kutaipa "besa pamishonga" rive search engine, kuwana peji tsamba akapindura, uye watevera mumwe wavo kuti webpage anobatsira. Zvino fungidzira basa iri dzairidzirwa kubva nemaonero search engine. Nguva dzose, mamiriyoni queries vari Pavakasvika kubva pasi pose, uye Rwizi urwu queries-chii Battelle (2006) haana kunzi "Database vavariro" - inopa nguva achiudza hwindo kupinda seboka pose kuziva. Zvisinei, akatendeuka rukova ichi mashoko kuva nokuyerwa yokupararira chikosoro kwakaoma. Simply tichiverenga kuwanda queries kuti "besa pamishonga" arege kushanda zvakanaka. Haasi munhu wose ane chikosoro anotsvaka besa pamishonga kwete vose searchers nokuda besa pamishonga ane chikosoro.
Chinokosha uye akangwara Wandinyengedzerei shure Google flu Trends chaiva chokuchinja dambudziko kuyerwa rive dambudziko kufungidzira. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ane yokuSpain zvichiongororwa hurongwa kuti anounganidza mashoko kubva vanachiremba akapoteredza nyika. Zvisinei, chimwe chinetso ichi CDC maitiro aripo pavhiki mbiri nhau lag; nguva zvinotora nokuda Data dzaibva vanachiremba kucheneswa, kupatsanurwa, uye akabudiswa. Asi, kana kubata chinhu hwava kupararira, voruzhinji utano mahofisi havadi kuziva sei yokuSpain zvikuru kwaiva mavhiki maviri apfuura; vanoda kuziva zvakadini yokuSpain pane izvozvi. Kutaura zvazviri, mune dzimwe dzakawanda chinyakare manyuko evanhu data, pane nemaburi namafungu date muunganidzwa uye rikaudza lags. Most guru mashoko zvinyorwa, Ukuwo, nguva-mberi (Section 2.3.1.2).
Naizvozvo, Jeremy Ginsberg uye nevamwe (2009) akaedza chokufungidzira CDC furuwenza mashoko kubva Google kutsvaga mashoko. Uyu ndiwo muenzaniso 'vachifanotaura ino "nokuti vaongorori vakanga vachiedza kuyera sei besa zvakawanda zvino zvichaitika munguva yemberi mashoko kubva CDC, ramangwana mashoko ari kuyera chipo. Kushandisa muchina kudzidza, ivo akaongorora akasiyana zvawatsvaga mamiriyoni 50 kuona zviri zvikuru chokufenbera pakati CDC furuwenza Data. Pakupedzisira, vakawana kutaridza 45 queries siyana kuti aiita vakawanda chokufenbera, uye migumisiro sevakanga yakanaka; vaigona kushandisa kutsvaka Data kufanotaura CDC mashoko. Kubva muchikamu papepa iri, yakabudiswa Nature, Google flu Trends akava nezvesimba mashoko makuru ane kazhinji akadzokorora kubudirira nyaya.
Zvisinei Pane caveats zviviri zvinokosha kuti ubudirire izvi zvakaoneka, uye kunzwisisa caveats huchakubatsira uongorore uye uite kufungidzira uye nowcasting. Chokutanga, chokupika Google flu Trends akanga chaizvoizvo asina nani zvikuru pane muenzaniso nyore kuti inofungidzira uwandu furuwenza pahwaro Linear extrapolation kubva maviri kupfuura zvichangobva kuyerwa besa kwakapararira (Goel et al. 2010) . Uye, dzimwe nguva Google flu Trends raingova kupfuura ichi nyore kusvika (Lazer et al. 2014) . Nemamwe mashoko, Google flu Trends zvose mashoko aro, muchina kudzidza, uye simba kadambari haana zvinoshamisa outperform nyore nyore kunzwisisa heuristic. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kana vanoongorora chero kushurudzira kana nowcast zvakakosha kuenzanisa pamusoro Muongororo yekutanga.
Chinokosha caveat pamusoro Google flu Trends yechipiri kuti kukwanisa kwayo kufanotaura CDC furuwenza Data ndaisatana kubatira pfupi-rokuti kukundikana uye kwenguva refu kuora nokuda vasakukurwa uye algorithmic akakunda. Somuenzaniso, panguva 2009 nguruve flu nzvongo Google flu Trends zvinoshamisa pamusoro-zvinofungidzirwa uwandu yokuSpain, zvichida nokuti vanhu vanowanzofunga kuti vachinje kutsvaka maitiro pakupindura kupararira nokutya yose Denda (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . Kuwedzera matambudziko aya pfupi-rokuti, chokupika zvishoma nezvishoma raderera pamusoro nguva. Diagnosing zvikonzero ichi kwenguva kuora vanonetsa nokuti Google Search algorithms vari proprietary, asi zvinoita sokuti muna 2011 Google akachinja kuti zvinoratidza chokuita zvawatsvaga vanhu apo vatsvake zviratidzo zvakafanana "nefivha" uye "chikosoro" (paro sokuti kuti chikamu ichi hachisisiri zvinoshingaira). Chakawedzera aya chinhu zvachose musoro chinhu kuita kana uri kumhanya bhizimisi search engine, uye yakanga nezvaizoitwa generating utano ukama tsvakiridzo zvakawanda. Zvichida ichi chaiva akabudirira nokuti bhizimisi, asi akaita Google flu Trends kusvika pamusoro-kufungidzira besa hwakapararira (Lazer et al. 2014) .
Sezvineiwo, matambudziko aya pamwe Google flu Trends vari fixable. Kutaura zvazviri, kushandisa nokuchenjera nzira, Lazer et al. (2014) uye Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) vakakwanisa kuwana zvibereko nani. Kuenda mberi, ndinotarisira kuti zvidzidzo nowcasting kuti vanobatanidza mashoko guru mutsvakurudzi dzakaunganidza mashoko-kuti zvinobatana Duchamp-mhanya Readymades pamwe Michaelangelo-mhanya Custommades-zvichabatsira vagadziri inozowana kubereka nokukurumidza uye yakarurama zvikuru kuyerwa aripo uye zvakafanotaurwa ramangwana.
