3.4.3 Non-fungidziro ivhu: mharidzo enzanirana

Havasi vose vakanga vasiri fungidziro ivhu zvakafanana. Tinogona kuwedzera kudzora nechemberi mugumo.

The kusvika Wang uye vatinoshanda navo inoshandiswa kufungidzira mugumisiro 2012 US sarudzo dzemutungamiriri wenyika kwaienderana kuvandudzwa date kuongorora. Kureva, vakaunganidza mhinduro dzakawanda sezvo kwaaikwanisa akaedza kuzodzosera uremu navo. A rwakakwana makundiro aaizoita kushanda nevasiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa ndiko kuva kudzora humboo muunganidzwa rikurumidze.

Nyore muenzaniso zvishoma kudzora asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa zvinoitawo kota zvakabudiswa, imwe nzira kuti anodzokera mazuva pakutsvakurudza ongororo mangwanani. In kota zvakabudiswa, vaongorori pakugovana yevagari kupinda mapoka akasiyana (semuenzaniso, majaya, vakadzi vechiduku, etc) uye zvadaro yakatarwa quotas kuti nhamba yevanhu kusarudzwa muna nerimwe boka. Vakabvunzwa vanosarudzwa nenzira zvakavhiringika netsika kusvikira nevatsvakurudzi akasangana kota yavo neimwe boka. Nemhaka quotas, kunoguma mharidzo anotarira ndangofanana chipfuro vemo pane vaizova wechokwadi kudaro, asi nokuti fungidziro unyorwe vasingazivikanwi vaongorori vakawanda chokwadi kota zvakabudiswa. Kutaura zvazviri, kota zvakabudiswa aiva mhaka "Dewey anokunda Truman" kukanganisa muna 1948 US Presidential musarudzo. Nokuti rinopa masimba vamwe pamusoro zvakabudiswa muitiro Zvisinei, munhu anogona kuona sei kota zvakabudiswa zvimwe zvakanakira pamusoro zvachose kusingadzoreki date muunganidzwa.

Kufambira mberi kota zvakabudiswa, nzira dzemazuva uno kudzora vasiri mukana zvakabudiswa muitiro vava zvinogoneka. Imwe nzira yakadaro inonzi mharidzo enzanirana, uye rinoshandiswa nevamwe wezvokutengeserana paIndaneti emadziro vanopa. In yayo nyore chimiro, mharidzo enzanirana kunoda mbiri Data manyuko: 1) remazita wakakwana chavagari uye 2) hombe eDare vakazvipira. Zvakakosha kuti vazvipiri havafaniri kuva ndingangokuvara yokuenzanisira chero yevagari; kusimbisa kuti hapana zvinodiwa kuti kusarudzwa kupinda emadziro, Ndicharipira nazvo tsvina remadziro. Uyewo, vose yevagari mazita uye tsvina Panel kunofanira kusanganisira mamwe hwebetsero ruzivo pamusoro mumwe munhu, munyika muenzaniso uyu, Ndichaenda funga zera uye pabonde, asi chaizvoizvo ezvinhu ruzivo urwu ebetsero chingava zvikuru hwakadzama. Wemanomano pamusoro mharidzo enzanirana ndiko kusarudza ivhu kubva rakasviba Panel nenzira kunobereka ivhu kuti Dzakafanana fungidziro ivhu.

Mharidzo enzanirana kunotanga apo munhu simulated fungidziro yokuenzanisira hunobviswa yevagari mazita; ichi yokuenzanisira simulated anova chipfuro waungapa. Zvadaro, inobva ebetsero mashoko, nyaya iri chipfuro mharidzo dziri vachiwirirana nevanhu vari rakasviba Panel kuumba vachiwirirana mharidzo. Somuenzaniso, kana paine 25 egore mukadzi ari kuda yokuenzanisira, ipapo muongorori anowana 25 egore hadzi kubva rakasviba Panel kuti kuva vachiwirirana mharidzo. Pakupedzisira, nhengo vachiwirirana mharidzo dziri Vakabvunzurudzwa kubudisa kwokupedzisira akagadzirwa vakabvunzwa.

Kunyange zvazvo vachiwirirana mharidzo sokuti chipfuro yokuenzanisira, zvinokosha kuyeuka kuti gedye mharidzo haisi ndingangokuvara waungapa. Unotibatsira mimwe anogona chete anoenderana kupfura mharidzo pamusoro anozivikanwa ebetsero mashoko (semuenzaniso, zera uye pabonde), asi kwete pamusoro unmeasured unhu. Somuenzaniso, kana vanhu pamusoro rakasviba Panel zvinoodza kuva varombo-pashure zvose, chimwe chikonzero kubatana kuongorora Panel kuti awane mari-ipapo kunyange kana vachiwirirana mharidzo sokuti chipfuro mharidzo tichitarisa zera uye kurara zvichaita vachiri imwe rerekero akananga varombo. The mashiripiti kwechokwadi. fungidziro zvakabudiswa ndiko kutonga zvinetso zvose kuyerwa uye unmeasured maitiro (pfungwa inowirirana kukurukurirana kwataiita chienderane nokuda causal inference ongororo observational muChitsauko 2).

In tsika, mharidzo enzanirana kunotsamira kuva huru uye vakasiyana-siyana paneeli chaizvo kupedza ongororo, uye ndizvo dzinowanzotsigi- kuitwa nemakambani kuti mari kukudziridza uye kuramba uine remadziro yakadaro. Uyewo, zviri tsika, panogona kuva nematambudziko enzanirana (dzimwe nguva machisa chakanaka munhu ari chipfuro mharidzo hakuwaniki pamusoro remadziro) uye asiri norudaviro (dzimwe nguva vanhu vachiwirirana mharidzo vanoramba muongororo). Saka, muna tsika, vatsvakurudzi kuita mharidzo enzanirana uyewo achiita post-stratification kugadziridzwa vamwe mhando kuti kufungidzira.

Zvakaoma kupa anobatsira yokungotaura inopikira pamusoro mharidzo enzanirana, asi tsika inogona kuita zvakanaka. Somuenzaniso, Stephen Ansolabehere uye Brian Schaffner (2014) akafananidza nhatu rinofambirana ongororo inenge 1,000 vanhu inoitwa 2010 uchishandisa nhatu zvakabudiswa akasiyana uye nokubvunzurudza nzira mail, runhare, uye Indaneti Panel muchishandisa mharidzo enzanirana uye post-stratification kuchinja. The nokufungidzira kubva nzira nhatu akanyatsofanana nokufungidzira kubva yepamusoro benchmarks dzakadai Current Population Survey (CPS) uye National Health Hurukuro Survey (NHIS). More zvakananga, zvose Indaneti uye tsamba kuongorora zvakanga kure nokuda avhareji 3 muzana pfungwa uye foni ongororo yaiva kure 4 muzana pfungwa. Zvikanganiso ichi huru tiri anenge chii munhu taizotarisira kubva mimwe vanhu vanenge 1,000. Kunyange zvazvo, hapana modes izvi anogadzirwa substantially nani data, zvose Indaneti uye foni ongororo (iyo vakatora mazuva kana mavhiki) vaiva substantially nokukurumidza kumunda kupfuura tsamba ongororo (iyo vakatora mwedzi misere), uye Indaneti ongororo, izvo akashandisa mharidzo enzanirana, akanga isingadhuri kupfuura mamwe maviri modes.

Mukugumisa, magariro masayendisiti uye statisticians vari chinopa norupokano inferences kubva izvi asiri fungidziro ivhu, muchidimbu nokuti chokuita nevamwe kunyadzisa kukundikana kutsvakurudza ongororo dzakadai Mamwe mabhuku Digest sarudzo. Muchikamu, ndinobvumirana kusava nechokwadi ichi: unadjusted vasiri fungidziro ivhu vanogona kubereka kufungidzira zvakaipa. Zvisinei, kana vaongorori anogona kuchinja nokuti vakanga vaine kwavakarerekera mune zvakabudiswa kwacho (semuenzaniso, post-stratification) kana kudzora zvakabudiswa muitiro zvishoma (semuenzaniso, mharidzo enzanirana), vanogona kubereka nokufungidzira nani, uye kunyange kufungidzira yakakwana unhu nezvinangwa vakawanda. Zvechokwadi, zvingava nani kuita zvakakwana vaurayiwa fungidziro zvakabudiswa, asi kuti haichawaniki sokuti kuva chisarudzo chine musoro.

Vose asiri fungidziro ivhu uye fungidziro ivhu dzinosiyana unhu hwavo, uye pari zvino zvingangoita nyaya kuti vanofungidzira vakawanda kubva fungidziro ivhu vari akavimbika kupfuura inofungidzirwa nevasiri fungidziro ivhu. Asi, kunyange ikozvino, inofungidzirwa kubva zvakanaka vakaperekedza asiri fungidziro ivhu Zvichida nani pane kufungidzira kubva havaratidzi-kuitiswa fungidziro ivhu. Uyezve, asiri fungidziro ivhu vari substantially isingadhuri. Saka, zvinoita sokuti ndingangokuvara VS asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa inopa mari-unhu Bhizimisi-kure (Figure 3,6). Ndichitarira mberi, ndinotarisira kuti vanofungidzira kubvira zvakanaka zvaitwa asiri fungidziro ivhu ichava isingadhuri uye nani. Uyezve, nemhaka havanyatsokurukurirani landline runhare kuongorora uye kuwedzera prices vasiri akapindura, ndinotarisira kuti ndingangokuvara ivhu achava anodhura uye ezasi yepamusoro. Pamusana izvi kwenguva refu yokurera, ndinofunga kuti asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa vachava kuwedzera kukosha yechitatu nguva kutsvakurudza ongororo.

Figure 3.6: fungidziro zvakabudiswa uchidzidzira uye vasiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa vari vaviri guru, heterogeneous mhando. Kazhinji, pane mari-kukanganisa kutengeserana-kure nevasiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa kuva akaderera mutengo asi kukanganisa yepamusorosoro. Zvisinei, zvakanaka zvaitwa asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa kungaita inofungidzirwa kupfuura havaratidzi-kuitwa fungidziro zvakabudiswa. Mune ramangwana, ini kutarisira kuti asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa zvichaita nani uye isingadhuri apo fungidziro zvakabudiswa achaita kuipa uye anodhura.