3.4 Ndianiko kubvunza
Fungidziro mienzaniso uye asiri fungidziro ivhu havasi kuti akasiyana mune tsika; Muzviitiko zvacho zvose, zviri zvose pamusoro Zviidzo.
Zvakabudiswa chinokosha kundorondedzera tsvakurudzo. Vaongorori anenge usambofa mibvunzo yavo vose zvavo chipfuro vemo. Panyaya iyi, kuongorora havasi akasiyana. tsvakurudzo Most, nenzira imwe kana mumwe, kunosanganisira zvakabudiswa. Dzimwe nguva zvakabudiswa izvi zvinoitwa zvakajeka kubudikidza mutsvakurudzi; dzimwe nguva zvinoitika zvakazara. Somuenzaniso, mumwe mutsvakurudzi unomhanya ari murabhoritari kuedza musi Rokutenderwa vadzidzi yunivhesiti wake atorerawo muenzaniso. Saka, zvakabudiswa idambudziko rinobva kumusoro kusvikira bhuku rino. Kutaura zvazviri, imwe yenzvimbo zvinovanetsa zvandinonzwa pamusoro digitaalinen zera manyuko mashoko ari "havasi mumiririri." Sezvatichaona muChikamu chino, izvi ndizvo zvose zvishoma chakakomba uye yakasvinuka kupfuura Vatsoropodzi vakawanda vanoziva. Kutaura zvazviri, ndichaita nharo kuti yose yokuti "representativeness" hakusi zvinobatsira kuti kufunga fungidziro uye asiri fungidziro ivhu. Asi, kiyi ndiko kufunga nezvekuti mashoko ikaunganidzwa uye sei chero vakanga vaine kwavakarerekera mune kuti mashoko muunganidzwa inogona nekusarega zvimwe kana achiita inofungidzirwa.
Pari chikuru yokungotaura yokutaura kumiririrwa ndiye ndingangokuvara zvakabudiswa. Kana date anounganidzwa aine mukana zvakabudiswa nzira kuti yave akaurayiwa zvakakwana, vatsvakurudzi vanokwanisa uremu mashoko avo inobva nzira kuti vakanga vakaungana kuti unbiased nokufungidzira pamusoro chipfuro vemo. Zvisinei, fungidziro akakwana zvakabudiswa ndezvaJosephus kumbobvira zvinoitika munyika chaiyo. Pane yemanyorero matambudziko makuru maviri 1) kusiyana kupfura vemo uye pamatanda vemo uye 2) asiri Achipindura (izvi ndiwo chaiwo matambudziko dzakaparadzwa ari Mamwe mabhuku Digest sarudzo). Saka, pane kufunga fungidziro zvakabudiswa somunhu sezvazviri muenzaniso chii chaizvoizvo zvinoitika munyika, zviri nani kufunga fungidziro zvakabudiswa somunhu anobatsira, Abstract wokuenzanisira, kufanana nzira yefizikisi vanofunga pamusoro frictionless bhora fu pasi ane zvikuru refu mudzakisirwa.
The pane fungidziro zvakabudiswa ndiyo isiri ndingangokuvara zvakabudiswa. Musiyano mukuru pakati fungidziro uye asiri mukana zvakabudiswa ndechokuti vane ndingangokuvara zvakabudiswa vose vemo ane anozivikanwa ndingangokuvara usanganidzo. Kune Chokwadi, marudzi akasiyana-siyana vasiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa, uye nzira aya mashoko muunganidzwa zvava mune digitaalinen zera. Asi, asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa ane mukurumbira rinotyisa pakati evanhu masayendisiti uye statisticians. Kutaura zvazviri, asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa inobatanidzwa nevamwe kunoshamisa zvikuru nokukundikana kwevanhu ongororo Vatsvakurudzi, dzakadai Mamwe mabhuku Digest Fiasco (kukurukurwa kwokutanga) uye kururama achifanotaura nezvokuwa US musarudzo pamusoro 1948 ( "Dewey anokunda Truman") (Mosteller 1949; Bean 1950; Freedman, Pisani, and Purves 2007) .
Zvisinei, nguva zvakanaka afungezve vasiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa nokuda kwezvikonzero zviviri. Chokutanga, sezvo fungidziro ivhu zvatowedzera kuoma kuita tsika, mutsara pakati mukana ivhu uye asiri fungidziro ivhu riri blurring. Kana paine yakakwirira prices vasiri akapindura (sezvo mune chaidzo kuongorora zvino), chaiko ndingangokuvara inclusions nokuda vakabvunzwa vari musingazivi, uye nokudaro, fungidziro ivhu uye asiri fungidziro ivhu vasiri sezvo yakasiyana sezvo vaongorori vakawanda vanotenda. Kutaura zvazviri, sezvatichaona pazasi, vose Nzira rinonyanya vanovimba chete iwe nzira: post-stratification. Chechipiri, pane zvave zviitiko zvakawanda zviri muunganidzwa uye kuongorora asiri fungidziro ivhu. nzira idzi akasiyana zvakakwana kubva nzira kuti zvakakonzera matambudziko kare kuti ndinofunga zvine musoro kufunga nezvavo se "vasiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa 2.0." Hatifaniri kuva musoro mukupandukira asiri fungidziro nzira nokuda kwokukanganisa zvakaitika nguva refu kare.
Zvadaro, kuitira kuti gakava iri kupfuura kongiri, Ndichaenda kudzokorora mureza fungidziro zvakabudiswa uye weighting (Section 3.4.1). Chinokosha Pfungwa ndechokuti sei iwe dzakaunganidza mashoko ako anofanira nechirongwa sei iwe kuti kufungidzira. Kunyanya, kana munhu wose asina zvakafanana ndingangokuvara usanganidzo, ipapo vanhu vose vanofanira kuva zvakafanana uremu. Nemamwe mashoko, kana zvakabudiswa wako hakusi zvegutsaruzhinji, ipapo Kutara kwako havafaniri kuva democratic. Taongorora weighting, Ndichaenda kutsanangura nzira mbiri vasiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa: munhu chinotarisa weighting kubata rokunwa tichimhanya-mhanya dzakaunganidza mashoko (Section 3.4.2), uye munhu anoedza kuisa kudzora sei mashoko ari akaunganidza (Section 3.4.3). The nharo dzeShanduro achapiwa kutsanangurwa pazasi mashoko uye mifananidzo; vaverengi angada kuva akarongeka kurapwa kunofanira kuona rwokugadzira okuwedzera.
