3.3.1 Umiririri
Kumiririrwa iri kuita inferences kubva dzenyu vakabvunzwa wenyu chipfuro vemo.
Kuti tinzwisise mhando zvikanganiso kuti zvinogona kuitika kana inferring kubva vakabvunzwa kuti yakakura vakawanda, ngationei Mamwe mabhuku Digest mashanga ongororo kuti vakaedza kufungidzira mugumisiro 1936 US Presidential sarudzo. Kunyange zvazvo akanga aine makore anopfuura 75 adarika, debacle ichi achine chidzidzo chinokosha kudzidzisa nevaongorori nhasi.
Mabhuku Digest aiva akakurumbira magazini zvavo-mhindu, uye kutanga muna 1920 vakatanga kumhanya mashanga musarudzo kufanotaura zvaitika pakati Presidential Elections. Kuti uprofita uhwu ivo aizotuma mavhoti kuti mijenya vanhu, uye ipapo anongoti ndwa vakasimudza mavhoti vakanga vadzoka; Mamwe mabhuku Digest muchizvikudza yakashuma kuti mavhoti avakawana vakanga kana "weighted, kugadziridzwa, kana zvichishandurwa." Nzira iyi zvakarurama akafanotaura Kumukundi pakati sarudzo muna 1920, 1924, 1928 uye 1932. muna 1936, mukati Kuderera Kukuru, mamwe mabhuku Digest akatuma mavhoti mamiriyoni 10 vanhu, vane mazita predominately vaibva runhare Directories uye motokari kunyoresa zvinyorwa. Heunoi sei akatsanangura nzira yavo;
"THE Digest kuti mvere-achimhanya muchina inofamba pamwe anomhanya nemazvo makumi matatu 'ruzivo kuderedza guesswork kuti zvakaoma chokwadi. . . .This Vhiki 500 matanga ndikamumara panze kupfuura muzvina rimwe zuva miriyoni nekero. Zuva nezuva, mukamba mukuru kupfuura motor-ribboned Wechina Avenue, muNew York, vashandi 400 deftly hadzitedzemuki miriyoni zvimedu akadhindwa nyaya-zvakakwana kugadzira mana kutigumbura-muguta iri kutaurwa chinovafukidza [sic]. awa ose, muna Digest pachake Post Office Substation, vatatu miromo youpenzi chitambi chetsamba metering michina chisimbiso uye ndokusimbiswa ari oblongs chena; vashandi vane unyanzvi mabha- flipped muvira bulging mailsacks; rengarava Digest marori vemabhiza vakamhanya navo kuratidza tsamba-nezvitima. . . vhiki Next, mhinduro yokutanga kubva pamamiriyoni gumi izvi uchatanga kuuya usava nemuumbi mavhoti, kuti katatu-achiongorora, riitike, shanu-nguva muchinjikwa Classified uye totaled. Apo wokupedzisira mufananidzo rave totted uye achiongorora, kana takambosangana ari chokuratidza, nyika ichaziva kuti mukati chikamu 1 muzana chaiko akakurumbira nekuvhota kwe [vavhoti] mamiriyoni mana. "(August 22, 1936)
The Digest wacho fetishization noukuru zviri pakarepo kucherechedzwa kuti chero "guru mashoko" mutsvakurudzi nhasi. Pakati miriyoni 10 mavhoti akagoverwa, inoshamisa mamiriyoni 2,4 mavhoti vadzoka-kuti nehasha 1,000 nguva makuru pane ano enyika musarudzo. Kubva izvi miriyoni 2,4 vakabvunzwa matongero akanga akajeka: Mamwe mabhuku Digest akafanotaura kuti munhu anopikisa Alf Landon aienda kukunda incumbent Franklin Roosevelt. Asi, chokwadi, zvakaitika chaiyo akatarisana. Roosevelt vakakunda Landon mune kuondomoka. Mamwe mabhuku Digest aigona sei kuenda chakakanganisika zvikuru mashoko? Kunzwisisa kwedu ano zvakabudiswa anoita zvikanganiso Mamwe mabhuku Digest rakajeka uye rinotibatsira kudzivisa kuita zvikanganiso zvakafanana munguva yemberi.
Kufunga zvakajeka pamusoro zvakabudiswa zvinoda kuti tifunge mapoka mana akasiyana vanhu (Figure 3.1). Boka revanhu wokutanga yevagari chipfuro; ndiro boka kuti kutsvakurudza se vanhu mhindu. Panyaya Mamwe mabhuku Digest kupfura vakawanda yakanga vavhoti ari 1936 Presidential Election. Pashure wasarudza nemharu hwevanhu, mumwe mutsvakurudzi inotevera anofanira kuva pasi vanhu anogona kushandiswa zvakabudiswa. Pamazita Izvi zvinonzi zvakabudiswa pepuranga uye vanhu pamusoro zvakabudiswa pamatanda anonzi pamatanda vemo. Panyaya Mamwe mabhuku Digest pamatanda vakawanda yaiva vanhu mamiriyoni 10 vane mazita vakauya predominately kubva runhare Directories uye motokari kunyoresa zvinyorwa. Zvakanakisa kupfura vemo uye pamatanda vemo yaizova zvakangofanana, asi tsika iyi kazhinji handizvo zvazviri. Kusiyana chipfuro vemo uye pave vemo dzinonzi nhau kukanganisa. Nhau kukanganisa hakuiti, pachayo iko matambudziko. Asi, kana vanhu vari pamatanda vemo vari zvakanyatsorongwa vakasiyana vanhu kwete pamatanda vemo pachava nhau kusasarura. Nhau kukanganisa ndiye wokutanga zvikuru zvaunokanganisa chete Mamwe mabhuku Digest sarudzo. Vaida kudzidza pamusoro vavhoti-raiva vanodenhwa hwevanhu-asi akavaka zvakabudiswa puranga predominately kubva runhare Directories uye motokari registries, matsime kuti pamusoro-rinomiririrwa akapfuma vokuAmerica vaiva vangangokuremekedza kutsigira Alf Landon (yeuka kuti vaviri dzemuchina izvi, izvo nhasi nevakawanda, vaiva itsva panguva uye kuti US aiva pakati Depression).
Akasabvumirana 3.1: Umiririri zvikanganiso.
Mushure nokududza puranga hwevanhu, danho rinotevera ndechokuti mutsvakurudzi kusarudza mharidzo hwevanhu; ava ndivo vanhu kuti mutsvakurudzi achaedza kubvunzurudza. Kana mharidzo ane unhu hwakasiyana kupfuura pamatanda hwevanhu, ipapo tinogona kusuma zvakabudiswa kukanganisa. Ndiyo mhando kwokukanganisa quantified mumucheto kwokukanganisa kazhinji zvaanoripirwa inofungidzirwa. Kana ari Mamwe mabhuku Digest Fiasco, kwakanga chaizvoizvo kusina mharidzo; vakaedza kuonana wose pamatanda vemo. Kunyange zvazvo pakanga pasina zvakabudiswa kukanganisa, pakanga pachena achiri kukanganisa. Izvi inopindura kuti mumucheto rinonyengera zviri yemanyorero yakashuma pamwe kufungidzira kubva kuongorora kazhinji misleadingly diki; havaiti zvinosanganisira mabhuku ose kukanganisa.
Pakupedzisira, mumwe mutsvakurudzi oedza kubvunzurudza wose mharidzo vemo. Vanhu ivavo vari zvinobudirira vakabvunzurudzwa vanonzi vakabvunzwa. Zvakanakisa, mharidzo vemo uye yevakapindura vaizova zvakangofanana, asi tsika pane vasiri kufarira. Kureva, vanhu vari kusarudzwa muna mharidzo vanoramba kubatanidzwa. Kana vanhu vanogamuchira vakasiyana nevaya vasingaomereri vanobvuma, ipapo hapana asiri Achipindura kusasarura. Non-Mhinduro rerekero chaiva chikuru dambudziko rechipiri pamwe Mamwe mabhuku Digest sarudzo. 24 chete% yevanhu akagamuchira nokuvhota vakabvuma, uye zvakazoitika kuti vanhu vaitsigira Landon vaiva vangangochigamuchira.
Beyond kungova muenzaniso wekutaura pfungwa kumiririrwa, iye Mamwe mabhuku Digest kuongorora chinhu mufananidzo kazhinji rakadzokororwa, ichitiyambira vatsvakurudzi nezvengozi zvakavhiringika zvakabudiswa. Zvinosuruvarisa, ndinofunga kuti chidzidzo kuti vanhu vakawanda vaswedere kubva nyaya iyi isiri imwe. Vakawanda zvetsika nyaya ndeyokuti vaongorori haagoni kudzidza chinhu kubva asiri fungidziro ivhu (kureva, ivhu pasina muchinyatsochenjerera fungidziro anotsanangura mitemo kusarudza vechikamu). Asi, sezvo Ndichamuratidza kuti gare gare muchitsauko chino, handizvo chaizvo zvakanaka. Asi, ndinofunga pane chaizvoizvo tsika mbiri nyaya iyi; tsika dziri vechokwadi nhasi sezvo vakanga vari 1936. Kutanga, yakawanda tichimhanya-mhanya dzakaunganidza mashoko achaita hazvivimbisi vanofungidzira akanaka. Chechipiri, vaongorori vanofanira pamusana sei mashoko avo ikaunganidzwa pavanenge vachiita inofungidzirwa pauri. Nemamwe mashoko, nokuti mashoko kuunganidza kwacho Mamwe mabhuku Digest yakaitwa yakanga zvakanyatsorongwa nokushapira kurutivi vamwe vacho, vatsvakurudzi vanofanira kushandisa imwe kunzwisisa uchimutarira muitiro kuti zviyereso vamwe vacho kupfuura vamwe. Gare gare muchitsauko chino, Ndichakuratidza ndikuratidzei munhu akadaro weighting pakuvhiya-post-stratification-anogona ukwanise kuita kufungidzira nani non-fungidziro ivhu.
