3.6.1 Amplified muchikumbira
Unobatanidza ongororo yako digitaalinen zvisaririra kungafanana kubvunza wose mibvunzo yenyu nguva dzose.
Achibvunza kazhinji anouya huru mhando mbiri: mharidzo kuongorora uye kwevanhu. Mharidzo kuongorora, apo kurapwa vashoma vanhu, vanogona kuchinja, nenguva, uye nekaupenyu chisingakoshi. Zvisinei, mharidzo anoona, nokuti zvakavakirwa muenzaniso, kazhinji zvakawanda yavo chisarudzo; ane mharidzo kuongorora, kazhinji zvakaoma kuita kufungidzira pamusoro dzakananga tsaukana nharaunda kana kuti yakananga wevanotungamirira mapoka. Kwevanhu, nezuva rimwe, kuedza kubvunzurudza wose vemo. Vane chisarudzo chikuru, asi ivo vanowanzoremekedza zvinodhura, nhete uchifunga (ivo chete inosanganisira vashoma mibvunzo), uye kwete nenguva (zvinongoitikawo pamusoro wakaiswa purogiramu, akadai pamakore 10) (Kish 1979) . Zvino chifungidzira kana vaongorori aigona nokubatanidza yakanakisisa unhu mharidzo kuongorora uye kwevanhu; fungidzira kana vanotsvakurudza aigona kubvunza mubvunzo ose wose zuva nezuva.
Zviri pachena, nguva ino, ubiquitous, nguva dzose-ari kuongorora rudzi munzanga sayenzi kwokunyepedzera. Asi, zvinoita sokuti tinogona kutanga paiva ichi kuburikidza tichibatanidza mibvunzo ongororo kubva vashoma nevanhu digitaalinen zvisaririra kubva kuvanhu vakawanda. Ndinodana kwakadai mubatanidzwa yakakura kubvunza. Kana aita zvakanaka, zvinogona kutibatsira rinopa vanofungidzira kuti vane zvakawanda omunharaunda (nokuti zviduku tsaukana nzvimbo), zvikuru granular (nokuti dzakananga wevanotungamirira mapoka), uye nenguva zvikuru.
Mumwe muenzaniso yakakura achibvunza unobva basa Joshua Blumenstock, uyo aida kuunganidza mashoko yaizobatsira inotungamirira budiriro munyika murombo. More zvakananga, Blumenstock aida kuti pave nehurongwa kuyera upfumi uye zvakanaka kuti zvikabatanidzwa kukwana Verengai pamwe mukana wokushandiswa uye kakawanda ane muongororo (Blumenstock 2014; Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Kutaura zvazviri, ndakatoiverenga akatsanangura basa Blumenstock kuti zvishoma muChitsauko 1.
Kutanga, Blumenstock partnered rinezvigaro runharembozha Provider kuRwanda. Kambani akamupa anonymized kutengeserana zvinyorwa kubva vanenge mamiriyoni 1,5 vatengi rokufukidza maitiro kubva 2005 uye 2009. The matanda ane ruzivo pamusoro nomumwe kudanwa uye meseji akadai pakutanga kwenguva, kwenguva refu, uye anofungidzirwa nzvimbo pamusoro wacho uye receiver. Tisati tatanga kutaura pamusoro uwandu nyaya, zvinokosha Zvairatidza kuti danho rokutanga iri ringava rimwe chakaoma. Sezvinotsanangurwa muChitsauko 2, vakawanda digitaalinen zvisaririra Data ndiko isingasvikiki nevaongorori. Uye, makambani akawanda vari yakarurama uchizeza kugoverana mashoko avo nokuti voga; kuti ndiwo vatengi vavo vangangodaro haana kutarisira kuti zvinyorwa zvavo zvichabviswa taigovana zvakawanda-pamwe vaongorori. Panyaya iyi, vaongorori vakatora kungwarira matanho anonymize humboo uye basa ravo rakanga kutungamirira nenzira yechitatu-nebato (kureva, IRB yavo). Asi, pasinei izvi nokuedza, mashoko aya pamwe vachiri dzinozivikanwa uye vangangodaro dzine hanya mashoko (Mayer, Mutchler, and Mitchell 2016; Landau 2016) . Ndichaedza kudzokera mubvunzo izvi chemufungo muChitsauko 6.
Yeuka kuti Blumenstock aifarira kuyera upfumi uye zvakanaka. Asi, unhu uhwu havasi zvakananga runhare zvinyorwa. Nemamwe mashoko, izvi kudanwa zvinyorwa kukwana pakutsvakurudza ichi, chimwe chinhu digitaalinen zvisaririra kuti MuNharireyomurindi zvakadzama muChitsauko 2. Asi, zvinoita sokuti zvimwe call zvinyorwa vane mamwe mashoko pamusoro upfumi uye zvakanaka. Saka, imwe nzira kubvunza mubvunzo Blumenstock aigona kuva: zvinobvira kuti kufungidzira kuti munhu achapindura kuti ongororo kwakavakirwa yavo digitaalinen zvisaririra Data? Kana zvakadaro, ipapo nokubvunza vanhu vashoma tinogona kufungidzira mhinduro wese.
Kuongorora izvi empirically, Blumenstock nokutsvakurudza vaivabatsira Kigali Institute of Science and Technology akadana nzwisa vanenge chiuru serura vatengi. Vaongorori yakatsanangura zvinangwa chirongwa kuvatori vechikamu, akakumbira kwavo mvumo kubatanidza ongororo mhinduro kudaidzwa zvinyorwa, uye ipapo akavabvunza mibvunzo yaitevedzana kuyera upfumi hwavo uye utano, zvakadai sokuti "Ko uine redhiyo? "uye" Ita uine bhasikoro? "(ona mufananidzo 3.11 kuti kukwana pasi). vechikamu Vose ongororo vakanga ndanyarara hangu mari.
Zvadaro, Blumenstock akashandisa vaviri-danho pakuvhiya nevakawanda date nesayenzi: kuchiitwa mapurani achiteverwa aitarisira kudzidza. Chokutanga, vari chinowanika michina danho, nokuti munhu wose wakanga vakabvunzurudzwa, Blumenstock anotendeuka kukumbirwa zvinyorwa mugomba yakatarwa hwounhu pamusoro mumwe munhu; date masayendisiti kuti kudana maitiro aya "zvinhu" uye masayendisiti magariro kwaizoita achiati "variables." Somuenzaniso, mumwe nomumwe munhu, Blumenstock nokuenzanisa nhamba mazuva basa, uwandu serudzi munhu yave neZvapupu, mari mari yakawandisa Airtime, uye zvichingodaro. Achitsoropodza, zvakanaka kuchiitwa mapurani kunoda zivo pakutsvakurudza yokuvira. Somuenzaniso, kana zvichikosha kusiyanisa epamba uye dzomunyika zvinoda (taigona kutarisira vanhu vanodana pose kuva akapfuma), zvino ichi chinofanira kuitwa panguva dzinoti mapurani danho. Mumwe mutsvakurudzi pasina kunzwisisa Rwanda varege zvinosanganisira aya, uye ipapo chokufenbera chokupika muenzaniso vachatambura.
Zvadaro, muna aitarisira kudzidza danho, Blumenstock akavakira uwandu muenzaniso kufanotaura ongororo achipindura mumwe munhu yakavakirwa zvinhu zvavo. Panyaya iyi, Blumenstock akashandisa logistic regression 10-nedanga muchinjikwa chivimbo chakasimba, asi angadai akashandisa dzakasiyana-siyana nezvimwe nzira nhamba kana muchina pakudzidza.
Saka sei zvakanaka zvakafamba? Blumenstock akakwanisa kufungidzira mhinduro kundorondedzera mibvunzo yakaita "Ko uine redhiyo?" Uye "Ko uine bhasikoro?" Vachishandisa zvinhu zvinobva kufona zvinyorwa? Kunge. Rakarurama nezvakafanotaurwa vaiva mukuru vamwe unhu (Figure 3.11). Asi, zvinokosha nguva dzose kuenzanisa kunzwisisa nokufanotaurirwa nzira pamusoro nyore kumwe. Panyaya iyi, nyore dzimwe nzira iri kufanotaura kuti wose achapa mhinduro rakajairika. Somuenzaniso, 97,3% akashuma kuva nemhuka redhiyo saka kana Blumenstock akanga ataura kuti munhu wose aizova kushuma kuva nemhuka redhiyo angadai aiva rakarurama 97,3%, izvo zvinoshamisa yakafanana chokupika ake kupfuura kunzwisisa nzira (97.6% kururama). Nemamwe mashoko, vose chinoshamisira Data uye modeling vakawedzera rakarurama achifanotaura kubva 97,3% kusvika 97,6%. Zvisinei, vamwe mibvunzo, yakadai se "Ita uine bhasikoro?", Zvakataurwa nani kubva 54,4% kusvika 67,6%. More kazhinji, Figure 3.12 anoratidza kuti dzimwe tsika Blumenstock haana kuvandudza zvikuru kupfuura kungoita mano Muongororo yekutanga wokufembera, asi kuti zvimwe unhu paiva nevamwe kuvandudzika.
Figure 3.11: chokufenbera rakarurama nokuti nhamba womuenzaniso vakadzidziswa chete kudanwa zvinyorwa. Results kubva Table 2 of Blumenstock (2014) .
Figure 3.12: Kuenzanisa chokufenbera rakarurama nokuda uwandu womuenzaniso vakadzidziswa chete kudanwa zvinyorwa nyore Muongororo yekutanga nokufembera. Points vari jittered zvishoma kudzivisa bindepinde; ona Table 2 of Blumenstock (2014) kuti chaiyo tsika.
Panguva iyi ungave uchifunga kuti migumisiro aya zvishoma mwoyo, asi pashure chete gore rimwe, Blumenstock vaviri nevamwe-Gabriel Cadamuro uye Robert On-yakabudiswa pepa iri Science pamwe substantially nani nemigumisiro (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Paiva huru mbiri michina zvikonzero kuvandudzika: 1) vakashandisa yakagozha nzira (kureva, munhu nzira itsva magazini engineering yaiva yakagozha muchina pakudzidza womuenzaniso) uye 2) pane kuedza infer mhinduro mumwe mibvunzo ongororo (semuenzaniso, "Ko uine redhiyo?"), vakaedza infer upfumi indekisi nezvakawanda.
Blumenstock uye nevamwe vakaratidza chokupika zvavaiita munzira mbiri. Chokutanga, havana kuwana kuti vanhu vari mharidzo yavo, vaigona kuita basa rakanaka akanaka vachifanotaura pfuma yavo kubva kudanwa zvinyorwa (Figure 3.14). Chechipiri, peri zvakakosha, Blumenstock uye nevamwe vakaratidza kuti nzira yavo vaigona kubudisa yepamusoro nokufungidzira ari nzvimbo kuparadzirwa upfumi kuRwanda. More zvakananga, vakashandisa yavo muchina kudzidza womuenzaniso, iyo yakanga yakadzidziswa kwavo nzwisa vanhu vanenge 1,000, kufanotaura upfumi vose mamiriyoni 1,5 vanhu vari kufona zvinyorwa. Uyezve, pamwe geospatial Data midzi kudaidzwa Data (vanoyeuka kuti kudaidzwa Data chinosanganisira nzvimbo pedyo sero shongwe nerimwe kudanwa), vaongorori vaigona vanofungidzira anofungidzirwa nzvimbo dzokugara mumwe munhu. Kuisa inofungidzirwa awa maviri pamwe chete, kutsvakurudza yakabereka yera Nzvimbo kugovera rinotengeswa nevaridzi upfumi panguva zvikuru yakanaka spatial granularity. Somuenzaniso, vaigona kufungidzira avhareji nefuma nerimwe veRwanda 2148 masero (duku administrative unit munyika). Izvi zvakafanotaurwa upfumi tsika dzakanga granular vakanga zvakaoma kutarisa. Saka, vatsvakurudzi aggregated migumisiro dzavo kubudisa Zvinofungidzirwa avhareji pfuma veRwanda maruwa 30. Ava inofungidzirwa dunhu-pamwero vakanga zvakasimba chokuita kufungidzira kubva goridhe mureza zvetsika kuongorora, Rwandan wevanotungamirira uye Health Survey (Figure 3.14). Kunyange zvazvo nokufungidzira kubva mumabhuku maviri akanga akafanana, kufungidzira kubva Blumenstock uye nevamwe vaiva nguva vanenge 50 isingadhuri uye ka10 dzichimhanya (apo mari mu hunoyerwa shanduka mari). Izvi kuderera zvinoshamisa mutengo zvinoreva kuti pane kumhanya makore-shoma ose ari kutevedzerwa wevanotungamirira uye Health Surveys-ari chemasanganiswa pamusoro ongororo duku pamwe guru digitaalinen zvisaririra Data yaigona kumhanya mwedzi wose.
Figure 3.13: Schematic pamusoro Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Call mashoko kubva kambani runhare akarega kuti chizvaro mumwe musara mumwe munhu uye mumwe Mbiru imwe neimwe inoti (kureva, shanduka). Zvadaro, vaongorori akavaka aitarisira kudzidza muenzaniso kufanotaura ongororo mhinduro kubva munhu kuburikidza chinhu chizvaro. Zvadaro, aitarisira kudzidza muenzaniso rakashandiswa tifungire kuongorora mhinduro vose. Chaizvoizvo, vaongorori vakashandisa mhinduro dzinenge chiuru vanhu kuti tifungire upfumi vanhu vanenge miriyoni imwe. Uyewo, vatsvakurudzi yaifungidzira anofungidzirwa nzvimbo dzokugara vose mamiriyoni 1,5 vanhu inobva nzvimbo dzavo vachidzifudza. Apo inofungidzirwa vaviri ava vakanga zvikabatanidzwa-kwacho upfumi uye zvinofungidzirwa nzvimbo dzokugara-migumisiro vakanga yakafanana nokufungidzira kubva wevanotungamirira uye Health Survey, mumwe goridhe-mureza chinyakare kuongorora (Figure 3.14).
Figure 3.14: Zvabuda kubva Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Panguva munhu-sandara, vaongorori vakakwanisa kuita zvine basa panguva vachifanotaura pfuma munhu kubva kudanwa zvinyorwa zvavo. The kufungidzira dzoruwa-chechetere upfumi-zvakanga yakavakirwa munhu-pamwero inofungidzirwa noupfumi uye nenzvimbo dzokugara-migumisiro dzaiva dzakafanana zvawanikwa kubva wevanotungamirira uye Health Survey, mumwe goridhe-mureza zvetsika ongororo.
Mukugumisa, Blumenstock kwakaita Amplified vachibvunza nzira rechirume ongororo Data vane digitaalinen zvisaririra Data kubudisa kufungidzira akafanana nendarama-mureza ongororo inofungidzirwa. Uyu muenzaniso Kunyanya uyewo anojekesa dzimwe kutengeserana-offs pakati yakakura achibvunza uye zvetsika kuongorora nzira. Chokutanga, yakakura vachibvunza inofungidzirwa vakanyanya yakakodzera, substantially isingadhuri, uye zvakawanda granular. Asi, kune rumwe ruoko, panguva ino, hapana simba yokungotaura hwaro pamusoro yakakura achibvunza mhando ichi. Izvozvo, uyu muenzaniso haaratidzi kana zvichava kushanda uye kana hazvizorevi. Uyezve, yakakura achibvunza nzira haasati vane nzira zvakanaka uwandu kusaziva kumativi inofungidzirwa dzayo. Zvisinei, yakakura kubvunza ane kwokubatana zvakadzama zvinhu zvitatu guru nhamba-muenzaniso-yakavakirwa post-stratification (Little 1993) , imputation (Rubin 2004) , uye duku-nharaunda uchimutarira (Rao and Molina 2015) -uye saka ini kutarisira kuti mberi vachatitaka kuva nokukurumidza.
Bhaibheri Dzvene achibvunza zvichifambirana dzinokosha yokubika rinogona rinoenderana yako chaiyo ezvinhu. Kune miviri zvinhu uye matanho maviri. Zvokubikisa mbiri 1) digital aitodada dataset kuti rakafara asi dzakaonda (ndiko, rine vanhu vakawanda asi kwete mashoko aunoda pamusoro nomumwe vanhu) uye 2) kuongorora kuti rakamanikana asi gobvu (ndiko, rine chete vanhu vashoma, asi ane mashoko aunoda pamusoro vanhu ivavo). Zvadaro, pane matanho maviri. Chokutanga, nokuti vanhu vari vose mashoko zvinyorwa, kuvaka muchina pakudzidza womuenzaniso kuti anoshandisa digitaalinen zvisaririra Data kufanotaura ongororo mhinduro. Zvadaro, shandisa kuti muchina pakudzidza muenzaniso kuti tifungire yacho ongororo mhinduro vose vari digitaalinen chero mashoko. Nokudaro, kana pane mubvunzo kuti unoda kukumbira mijenya vanhu, tsvaka digitaalinen zvisaririra Data kubva ivavo vanhu kuti ingashandiswa kufanotaura mhinduro yavo.
Achienzanisa rokutanga uye rechipiri Blumenstock kuti kuedza panguva dambudziko inojekesawo chidzidzo chinokosha pamusoro achichinja kubva rechipiri nguva kune rechitatu nguva nzira kundorondedzera tsvakurudzo: pakutanga haisi mugumo. Izvozvo, nguva zhinji, wokutanga nzira hazvizovi zvakanakisisa, asi kana vaongorori kuramba kushanda, zvinhu zvinogona kuita nani. More kazhinji, apo vanoongorora nzira itsva munzanga akatsvakurudza digitaalinen zera, zvakakosha kuti vaviri vakasiyana Mutengo: 1) sei tsime anoita basa iri iye zvino uye 2) sei zvakanaka Unofunga izvi kuti kushanda mune ramangwana sezvo mashoko nzvimbo kuchinja uye sezvo nevatsvakurudzi upedzere nguva yakawanda dambudziko. Kunyange zvazvo, vatsvakurudzi vakadzidziswa kuiita wakatarwa mutsa wokutanga (rakanaka sei uyu kunyanya nhindi tsvakurudzo), wechipiri kazhinji kukosha.
