Uyezve komendari

Chikamu chino chakagadzirirwa kushandiswa sokunoratidza, pane kuti kuverenga somunhu rondedzero.

• Nhanganyaya (Section 3.1)

Vazhinji misoro muchitsauko chino tomenewo dzainzwika ichangopfuura Presidential Anotaura panguva American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), akadai Dillman (2002) , Newport (2011) , Santos (2014) , uye Link (2015) .

Kuti uwane nhoroondo nezvekwakabva kukura kutsvakurudza ongororo, ona Smith (1976) uye Converse (1987) . Kuti uwane pamusoro pfungwa eras matatu kutsvakurudza ongororo, ona Groves (2011) uye Dillman, Smyth, and Christian (2008) (izvo achaputsa eras matatu zvishoma zvakasiyana).

A Nhamba yepamusoro mukati kuchinja kubva pakutanga kusvika rechipiri panguva tsvakurudzo ongororo ndiye Groves and Kahn (1979) , iyo anoita munhu hwakadzama musoro-kuti-musoro kuenzanisa pakati chiso nechiso uye runhare ongororo. Brick and Tucker (2007) anotarira shure panguva enhoroondo kukura chero digit kuridza runhare zvakabudiswa nzira.

Kuti uwane sei ongororo tsvakurudzo hwachinja kare pakupindura kuchinja munharaunda, ona Tourangeau (2004) , Mitofsky (1989) , uye Couper (2011) .

• Muchikumbira vs. nokucherechedza (Section 3.2)

Kudzidza pamusoro pezviri inoti nokubvunza mibvunzo inogona kuva matambudziko nokuti dzimwe nguva yevakapindura pachavo havazivi dzavo dzomukati inoti. Somuenzaniso, Nisbett and Wilson (1977) vane inoshamisa bepa pamwe evocative title: "Kuudza kupfuura zvatingaziva. Kutuka mishumo kushanda kwendangariro" In pepa hachishandi kugumisa: "nyaya dziri dzimwe nguva (a) vasingazivi kuvapo tide kuti kukosha kukanganiswa mhinduro, (b) vasingazivi chokuvapo mhinduro, uye (c) asingazivi kuti vakurukurirane kwakaitwa sei. "

Nokuti nharo kuti vatsvakurudzi vanofanira vanosarudza kuchengetwa maitiro kuti kushumwa maitiro kana mafungiro, ona Baumeister, Vohs, and Funder (2007) (wezvepfungwa) uye Jerolmack and Khan (2014) uye mhinduro (Maynard 2014; Cerulo 2014; Vaisey 2014; Jerolmack and Khan 2014) (wemagariro evanhu). Musiyano achibvunza uye kucherechedza chinovapo muna dzezvoupfumi, uko vatsvakurudzi nezvazvo akataura uye akazivisa zvavanosarudza. Somuenzaniso, mumwe mutsvakurudzi aigona kubvunza vakabvunzwa kana vanosarudza kudya aizikirimu kana kuenda yokurovedza muviri (waiti zvatinofarira) kana pakutsvakurudza aigona kuchengeta kakawanda sei vanhu vadye aizikirimu uye kuenda yokurovedza muviri (akaratidza zvavanosarudza). Pane rakadzika kasingaperi pamusoro mamwe akataura zvatinofarira mashoko ari dzezvoupfumi (Hausman 2012) .

A musoro kubva nharo idzi kuti yakashuma maitiro hakusi yakarurama nguva dzose. Asi, kwaita akanyorwa maitiro kungasava yakarurama, rirege yaunganidzwa pamusoro wezvaizogona kufarira, uye murege kuva nyore nevaongorori. Saka, mune mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu, ndinofunga kuti yakashuma maitiro zvinogona kubatsira. Uyezve, mumwe musoro wechipiri kubva nharo idzi kuti mishumo manzwiro, ruzivo, tarisiro, uye zvinofungwa havasi yakarurama nguva dzose. Asi, kana ruzivo pamusoro izvi zvinorwisana inoti zvinodiwa vanotsvakurudza-kana kuti kubatsira kutsanangura zvimwe maitiro kana sezvo chinhu kuti zvitsanangurwe-ipapo tichikumbira kungava kwakakodzera.

• Total Kuongorora kukanganisa (Section 3,3)

Nokuti bhuku kureba mishonga iri zvachose ongororo kukanganisa, ona Groves et al. (2009) kana Weisberg (2005) . Nokuti nhoroondo kukura zvachose ongororo kukanganisa, ona Groves and Lyberg (2010) .

Tichitevera kumiririrwa, sumo guru nyaya asiri akapindura uye asiri norudaviro rerekero ndiye National Research Council mushumo pamusoro Nonresponse muna Social Science Surveys: A Research Agenda (2013) . Chimwe chinobatsira muchidimbu inopiwa (Groves 2006) . Uyewo, inokosha yose nyaya yacho Journal of Official Statistics, Public Opinion Quarterly, uye renhoroondo dzamadzimambo American Academy of Political uye Social Science dzakabudiswa panyaya vasiri apindure. Pakupedzisira, pane chaizvoizvo dzakawanda dzakasiyana nzira pakuverenga kwacho mwero; Nzira idzi zvinotsanangurwa zvakadzama nomushumo American Association of Public Opinion Researchers (AAPOR) (Public Opinion Researchers} 2015) .

The 1936 Mamwe mabhuku Digest ongororo yave akadzidza zvakadzama (Bryson 1976; Squire 1988; Cahalan 1989; Lusinchi 2012) . Zvakanzi kushandiswa sezvo mufananidzo kunyevera pamusoro zvakavhiringika date muunganidzwa (Gayo-Avello 2011) . Muna 1936, George Gallup akashandisa yakagozha chimiro zvakabudiswa, uye akakwanisa kubereka kufungidzira rakanyatsorurama ine mharidzo duku zvikuru. Gallup kuti kubudirira pamusoro Mamwe mabhuku Digest muJinja kukura pakutsvakurudza ongororo (Converse 1987, Ch 3; Ohmer 2006, Ch 4; Igo 2008, Ch 3) .

In mashoko yakayerwa, guru rokutanga chinogona kuti afunge nemibvunzo ndiye Bradburn, Sudman, and Wansink (2004) . Kuti uwane yepamusoro kurapa chakabatikana zvakananga mibvunzo mafungiro, ona Schuman and Presser (1996) . More mibvunzo yakatangira yokuedzwa inowanika Presser and Blair (1994) , Presser et al. (2004) , uye Chapter 8 Groves et al. (2009) .

The Classic, bhuku-urefu pakurapa kutengeserana-kure pakati ongororo mari uye ongororo zvikanganiso ndiye Groves (2004) .

• Ndiani kubvunza (Section 3,4)

Classic bhuku-urefu pakurapa neezvitendero fungidziro zvakabudiswa uye iwe uri Lohr (2009) (more yokusuma) uye Särndal, Swensson, and Wretman (2003) (more mberi). A klassiske bhuku-urefu Mabatirwo post-stratification ndokurondedzera nzira ndiye Särndal and Lundström (2005) . Mune dzimwe digitaalinen zera zviruva, vaongorori vanoziva vakasvimha pamusoro asiri vakabvunzwa, wakange asina chokwadi kazhinji kare. Zvakasiyana siyana vasiri akapindura kuchinja zvinogoneka kana vaongorori vane ruzivo pamusoro vasiri vakabvunzwa (Kalton and Flores-Cervantes 2003; Smith 2011) .

The Xbox Kudzidza Wang et al. (2015) anoshandisa nzira inonzi multilevel regression uye post-stratification (MRP, dzimwe nguva inonzi "Mister P") kuti unobvumira vatsvakurudzi kufungidzira Sero zvinoreva kunyange kana paine masero akawanda, mazhinji. Kunyange zvazvo paine gakava pamusoro kunaka vanofungidzira kubva unyanzvi ichi, zvinoita sokunge aizobudirira nzvimbo kuongorora. Nzira yakatanga kushandiswa Park, Gelman, and Bafumi (2004) , uye ikoko kwave unozotevera kushandiswa uye gakava (Gelman 2007; Lax and Phillips 2009; Pacheco 2011; Buttice and Highton 2013; Toshkov 2015) . Kuti uwane pamusoro kubatana kwakaita munhu Zviidzo uye sero anotsanangura Zviidzo ona Gelman (2007) .

Nokuti dzimwe nzira kuti weighting padandemutande kuongorora, ona Schonlau et al. (2009) , Valliant and Dever (2011) , uye Bethlehem (2010) .

Enzanirana yokuenzanisira akanga dzataurwa nokuda Rivers (2007) . Bethlehem (2015) anoti chokupika mharidzo enzanirana achava akafanana nevamwe zvakabudiswa Nzira (semuenzaniso, stratified zvakabudiswa) uye dzimwe kugadziridza nzira (semuenzaniso, post-stratification). Kuti uwane pamusoro paIndaneti ukomba, ona Callegaro et al. (2014) .

Dzimwe nguva vanotsvakurudza vakaona kuti ndingangokuvara ivhu uye asiri fungidziro ivhu richabereka inofungidzirwa yakafanana yepamusoro (Ansolabehere and Schaffner 2014) , asi dzimwe enzaniso vakawana kuti vasiri fungidziro ivhu vanoita zvakaipa (Malhotra and Krosnick 2007; Yeager et al. 2011) . Chimwe chikonzero kusiyana izvi ndechokuti asiri fungidziro ivhu kwakavandudza kwenguva. Kuti uwane tariro maonero asiri fungidziro zvakabudiswa nzira kuona ari AAPOR Task Force ari Non-fungidziro zvakabudiswa (Baker et al. 2013) , uye ini kutokurudzira kuverenga rinotsanangura kuti kunotevera pfupiso mushumo.

Nokuti Meta-kuongorora pamusoro migumisiro weighting kuderedza rerekero munyika isiri fungidziro ivhu, ona Table 2.4 muna Tourangeau, Conrad, and Couper (2013) , iyo inotungamira hachishandi kugumisa "kugadzirisa sokuti chichibatsira asi vanotadza padzimwe. . . "

• Sei kukumbira (Section 3.5)

Conrad and Schober (2008) rinopa rakapepetwa vhoriyamu vanoda Envisioning ari Survey Hurukuro Nezveramangwana, uye unozvitaura vazhinji misoro muchikamu chino. Couper (2011) anotaura misoro zvakafanana, uye Schober et al. (2015) inopa akanaka muenzaniso sei mashoko muunganidzwa nzira inoenderana nezvinofarirwa itsva marongero zvinogona dzakakwirira unhu Data.

Nokuti mumwe muenzaniso inonakidza kushandisa Facebook Apps nokuda evanhu kuongorora sainzi, ona Bail (2015) .

Kuti zano zvakawanda pakuita ongororo inakidzwe uye anokosha ruzivo kuvatori vechikamu, ona basa riri rinoenderana Design Method (Dillman, Smyth, and Christian 2014) .

Stone et al. (2007) inopa bhuku pakureba Mabatirwo zvipenyu kwenguva duku kuongorora uye vakarondedzera nzira.

• Surveys chokuita nedzimwe Data (Section 3,6)

Judson (2007) akarondedzera muitiro unobatanidza kuongorora uye okutarisira Data se "mashoko kusangana," inotsanangura dzimwe zvakanakira nzira iyi, uye inopa mienzaniso.

Imwe nzira iyo vatsvakurudzi vanogona kushandisa digitaalinen zvisaririra uye okutarisira mashoko ari zvakabudiswa puranga vanhu vane chaizvo unhu. Zvisinei, kupiwa zvinyorwa izvi kuti akashandisa zvakabudiswa puranga kunogonawo pave mibvunzo chokuita voga (Beskow, Sandler, and Weinberger 2006) .

Achitaura yakakura achibvunza, nzira iyi haisi sezvo idzva sezvo chiratidzwe kuti kubva sei ndava zvinorondedzerwa izvozvo. Izvi ane kwokubatana zvakadzama zvinhu zvitatu guru nhamba-muenzaniso-yakavakirwa post-stratification (Little 1993) , imputation (Rubin 2004) , uye duku nzvimbo uchimutarira (Rao and Molina 2015) . Chinonziwo chokuita nokushandiswa kuberekerwa mwana nomumwe variables pakutsvakurudza zvokurapa (Pepe 1992) .

Kuwedzera penyaya nyaya maererano angadaro ari digitaalinen zvisaririra data, yakakura achibvunza aigona kushandiswa infer vasanonoka unhu kuti vanhu varege kusarudza kuratidza mune imwe ongororo yakaitwa (Kosinski, Stillwell, and Graepel 2013) .

Mari uye nguva nokufungidzira muna Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) anoreva zvakawanda shanduka mari-mari zvimwe ongororo-uye hadzirishandisi pazvinhu mari yakadai mutengo kuchenesa uye dzinoona runhare Data. Kazhinji, yakakura achibvunza zvichida kuva mukuru wakaiswa mari uye vakaderera shanduka mari yakafanana digitaalinen kuedza (ona Chitsauko 4). More mashoko pamusoro Data yaishandiswa Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) bepa vari Blumenstock and Eagle (2010) uye Blumenstock and Eagle (2012) . Nzira multiple imputuation (Rubin 2004) angabatsira kubatwa chokwadi muna inofungidzirwa kubva yakakura kubvunza. Kana vanotsvakurudza kuita yakakura kubvunza chete hanya uwandu hwezvinhu zvose zvabatanidzwa. Counts, pane munhu-pamwero maitiro, ipapo Nzira muna King and Lu (2008) uye Hopkins and King (2010) angabatsira. Kuti uwane pamusoro muchina pakudzidza Nzira muna Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) , ona James et al. (2013) (more yokusuma) kana Hastie, Tibshirani, and Friedman (2009) (more mberi). Chimwe yakakurumbira muchina kudzidza bhuku iri Murphy (2012) .

Achitaura zvakapfumisa achibvunza, migumisiro iri Ansolabehere uye Hersh (2012) hinji vaviri matanho anokosha: 1) mano Catalist chokubatanidza vakawanda zvakasiyana mashoko manyuko ichibudisa tenzi yakarurama datafile uye 2) mano Catalist kubatanidza ongororo mashoko kuti tenzi wayo datafile. Naizvozvo, Ansolabehere uye Hersh tarisa nerimwe matanho aya kunyatsoongorora.

Kusika tenzi datafile, Catalist rinobatanidza uye huchienderana mashoko akawanda zvinyorwa zvakasiyana-siyana kusanganisira: vakawanda dzokuvhota zvinyorwa Snapshots kubva neimwe mamiriro, mashoko kubva Post Office National Kuchinja Address yokunyoresa, uye mashoko dzimwe kutaurwa zvokutengeserana vanopa. The Hemat chokuita sei zvose izvi yokuchenesa uye kubatanidzwa nomumwe zvaitika chisingakwanisi kutsanangurwa bhuku rino, asi muitiro uyu, pasinei ngwarira, achaita kuparadzira zvikanganiso chepakutanga mashoko zvinyorwa uye achasuma zvikanganiso. Kunyange zvazvo Catalist aida kukurukura ayo date kubudiswa uye anopa dzimwe dzayo mbishi data, zvakanga hazvitomboiti kuti vanotsvakurudza kudzokorora yose Catalist date Mapaipi. Asi, vaongorori vakanga ezvinhu umo Catalist date faira aiva vamwe isingazivikanwi, uye zvichida kuzivikanwa, uwandu kwokukanganisa. Ichi zvokuva nehanya nokuti mutsoropodzi kuti zvokufungidzira kuti huru kusiyana kuongorora mishumo pamusoro CCES uye maitiro ari Catalist tenzi Data faira vakanga kunokonzerwa zvikanganiso zviri tenzi Data faira, kwete misreporting kubudikidza vakabvunzwa.

Ansolabehere uye Hersh akatora nzira mbiri dzakasiyana kuti nokugadzirisa date yepamusoro hanya. Chokutanga, kuwedzera kuenzanisa kuzvidzora kushumwa kuvhota kuti kuvhota ari Catalist tenzi faira, vaongorori akafananidzawo self kushumwa pati, rudzi, voter kunyoresa mamiriro (semuenzaniso, vakanyorwa kana kwete pamutemo) uye kuvhota nzira (semuenzaniso, muna munhu, asipo nokuvhota, etc.) kuunhu avo inowanikwa Catalist Databases. Nokuti izvi wevanotungamirira variables mana, vaongorori vakawana dzakakwirira zvikuru kwevari chibvumirano pakati ongororo mushumo uye mashoko ari Catalist tenzi faira kupfuura kuvhota. Nokudaro, Catalist tenzi Data faira sokuti kuva yepamusoro mashoko asiri dzokuvhota miitiro, zvichireva kuti hazvisi murombo kunopindirana yepamusoro. Chechipiri, chimwe vachishandisa mashoko kubva Catalist, Ansolabehere uye Hersh yakatanga zviyero zvitatu akasiyana chatingatevedzera avabvumire dzokuvhota marekodzi, uye vakawana kuti vanofungidzirwa mwero pamusoro-nhau kuvhota ainyanya chokuita chero izvi Data unhu matanho, zvaonekwa kuti anoratidza kuti yakakwirira mwero pamusoro-nhau havasi kupiwa rinosundwa mumaruwa pamwe outsinye yakaderera date unhu.

Akapiwa kusikwa ichi tenzi kuvhota faira, panobva wechipiri yemakambani zvikanganiso ari dzaibatanidza ongororo zvinyorwa maro. Somuenzaniso, kana linkage izvi zvinoitwa zvisiri izvozvo zvingaita kuti munhu pamusoro-yera musiyano pakati akashuma uye yakasimbiswa kuvhota maitiro (Neter, Maynes, and Ramanathan 1965) . Kana munhu wose aiva mudanga, yakasiyana identifier zvaiva zvose date zvinyorwa, ipapo linkage yaizova zvenhando. Zvisinei, muna US uye vakawanda dzimwe nyika, hakuna zvakasikwa identifier. Uyezve, kunyange zvazvo paiva yakadaro identifier vanhu vaizova pamwe uchizeza kukutsigira kundorondedzera nevaongorori! Saka, Catalist aifanira kuita linkage vachishandisa identifiers vasina kukwana, muchiitiko ichi zvidimbu zvina ruzivo pamusoro mumwe respondent: zita, munhurume, kuberekwa gore, uye musha kero. Somuenzaniso, Catalist aifanira kusarudza kana Homie J Simpson ari CCES ndiye munhu sezvo Homer Jay Simpson kwavo tenzi date faira. In tsika, enzanirana yakaoma uye sviba kunoenderera, uye, kuti zvinhu zvitoipisisa nokuda vatsvakurudzi, Catalist vaiona rayo enzanirana unyanzvi kuti proprietary.

Kuti hunotsigira enzanirana algorithms, vaivimba nematambudziko maviri. Chokutanga, Catalist muchirongwa imwe enzanirana makwikwi kuti raiiswa nenzira yakazvimirira, chechitatu-nebato: ari MITRE Corporation. MITRE akapa zvose vechikamu vaviri ruzha mashoko mafaira kuti vachiwirirana, uye zvikwata zvakasiyana vaikwikwidzana kudzokera MITRE zvakanakisisa enzanirana. Nokuti MITRE pachayo aiziva yakarurama enzanirana vakakwanisa Score zvikwata. 40 mapoka vaikwikwidzana, Catalist akasvika panzvimbo yechipiri. kwakadai kuzvimirira, rechitatu-vebato kunyatsoongorora proprietary michina hariwanikwi chaizvo uye chinopa zvinokosha; Zvinofanira atipe chivimbo kuti Catalist kuti enzanirana zvesangano vanotova panguva mamiriro-of-the-nounyanzvi. Asi ndiye mamiriro-of-the-makanaka zvakakwana? Kuwedzera uku enzanirana makwikwi, Ansolabehere uye Hersh akasika yavo enzanirana chinetso Catalist. Kubva akamborasiswa chirongwa, Ansolabehere uye Hersh akanga yaunganidzwa voter Zvinyorwa Florida. Vaigovera vamwe zvinyorwa izvi nevamwe neminda yavo redacted kuna Catalist uye ipapo tichienzanisa mishumo Catalist kwakaita cheminda izvi kuunhu zvavo zvomene. Sezvineiwo, mishumo Catalist vaiva pedyo kundinyima tsika, zvichiratidza kuti Catalist aigona kuenzana kukwana voter zvinyorwa pana avo tenzi date faira. Izvi matambudziko maviri, mumwe yechitatu-bato uye mumwe Ansolabehere uye Hersh, tipei nechivimbo muna Catalist enzanirana algorithms, kunyange zvazvo tisingagoni kuongorora kwavo chaiyo implementation pachedu.

Pane zvave zhinji yapfuura kuedza hunotsigira kuti kuvhota. Nokuti muchidimbu kuti mabhuku, ona Belli et al. (1999) , Berent, Krosnick, and Lupia (2011) , Ansolabehere and Hersh (2012) , uye Hanmer, Banks, and White (2014) .

Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kunyangwe zvazvo iyi nyaya Vanotsvakurudza vakakurudzirwa yakambomira mashoko kubva Catalist, dzimwe Mutengo ezvokutengeserana vapemhi zvave zvishoma nechido. Vanotsvakurudza vakawana chenhando apo mashoko kubva Ongororo kuti mutengi-faira kubva Marketing Systems Group (izvo pacharo zvibatanidzwe pamwechete mashoko kubva vanopa zvitatu: Acxiom, Experian, uye InfoUSA) (Pasek et al. 2014) . Kureva mashoko faira haina kuwirirana ongororo mhinduro vatsvakurudzi kutarisirwa kuva yakarurama, datafile akanga asipo mashoko nokuda vakawanda mibvunzo, uye chisipo date muenzaniso akanga correlated kuti kushumwa ongororo ukoshi (nemamwe mashoko asipo mashoko akanga hurongwa , kwete chibhubhubhu).

Kuti uwane pamusoro rekodhi linkage pakati kuongorora uye okutarisira data, ona Sakshaug and Kreuter (2012) uye Schnell (2013) . Kuti uwane pamusoro rekodhi linkage zvarwo, ona Dunn (1946) uye Fellegi and Sunter (1969) (dzakaitika) uye Larsen and Winkler (2014) (ano). Nzira yakadaro yave yakatangawo kombiyuta zvesayenzi pasi mazita akadai date deduplication, Somuenzaniso kuzivikanwa, zita enzanirana, DUPLICATE vasabatwa, uye kutevedzera rekodhi vasabatwa (Elmagarmid, Ipeirotis, and Verykios 2007) . Kunewo zvakavanzika kuchengetedza nzira kunyora linkage isingapwi zvinoda nokupfuuridzirwa pachake azivikanwe mashoko (Schnell 2013) . Vaongorori vari Facebook yakatanga nzira probabilisticsly kubatanidza zvinyorwa zvavo kuvhota maitiro (Jones et al. 2013) ; linkage ichi chakaitwa kuti vaongorore chinhu kuedza kuti Ndichaudza kukuudza pamusoro muChitsauko 4 (Bond et al. 2012) .

Mumwe muenzaniso dzaibatanidza hombe dzinotambudza munzanga kuongorora kuti hurumende administrative zvinyorwa rinobva Health uye Retirement Survey uye Social Security Administration. Kuti uwane yokudzidza kuti, kusanganisira mashoko pamusoro mvumo nzira, ona Olson (1996) uye Olson (1999) .

Muitiro tichibatanidza zvinyorwa zvakawanda administrative zvinyorwa ive tenzi datafile-muitiro kuti Catalist vashandi-mune nhamba mahofisi dzimwe hurumende dzenyika. Two vatsvakurudzi Statistics Sweden ndanyora tsanangudzo bhuku pamusoro wenyaya (Wallgren and Wallgren 2007) . Nokuti muenzaniso nzira ichi chimwe chete avabvumire muUnited States (Olmstead County, Minnesota, kumba Mayo Clinic), ona Sauver et al. (2011) . Kuti uwane pamusoro kwokukanganisa anogona kuonekwa mune administrative records, ona Groen (2012) .