Key:
[ , ] Muchitsauko, ndakanga zvakanaka chaizvo pamusoro post-stratification. Zvisinei, haugari kuvandudza inofungidzirwa. Kuvaka ezvinhu anogona kuposita-stratification apo vanogona kuchiderera unhu inofungidzirwa. (Nokuti nepanomboratidza, ona Thomsen (1973) ).
[ , , ] Design uye kuitisa asiri fungidziro ongororo pamusoro Amazon MTurk kuti abvunze pfuti uridzi ( "Iwe, kana anoita munhu mumba mako, watenga pfuti, pfuti kana chivhorovhoro? Is kuti iwe kana kuti mumwe munhu ari mumhuri yenyu?") Uye mafungiro vakananga pfuti kuzvidzora ( "Unofunga kukosha-kudzivirira kodzero vokuAmerica neImba pfuti, kana kuti kudzora pfuti muridzi?").
[ , , ] Goel uye nevamwe (2016) raitongwa pokuongorora asiri fungidziro-kwakavakirwa rinoumbwa 49 mibvunzo akawanda-yakasarurwa attitudinal yakavhomorwa kubva General Social Survey (GSS) uye vakasarudzwa kuongorora kubudikidza bhenji Research Center on Amazon MTurk. Vakabva kuchinja nokuda asiri representativeness pamusoro mashoko vachishandisa muenzaniso-yakavakirwa post-stratification (Mr. P), uye enzanisa kugadziridzwa inofungidzirwa nevaya vanofungidzirwa vachishandisa fungidziro-kwakavakirwa GSS / bhenji kuongorora. Itisa chete ongororo pamusoro MTurk uye kuedza kutevedzera Figure 2a uye Figure 2b nokuenzanisa kwako akagadziridzwa nokufungidzira pamwe kufungidzira kubva kupfuura zvichangobva dzinenge GSS / bhenji (Ona Appendikisi Table A2 kuti mazita 49 mibvunzo).
[ , , ] Nezvidzidzo vakawanda vanoshandisa kuzviremekedza mushumo zviyero nharembozha basa Data. Uyu inonakidza ezvinhu apo vatsvakurudzi vanogona kuenzanisa hwokuzvidzora kushumwa maitiro pamwe Logged maitiro (ona semuenzaniso, Boase and Ling (2013) ). Two maitiro kujairwa abvunze vari kudana uye mameseji, uye vaviri nevakawanda nguva mapuranga vari "zuro" uye "kare vhiki."
[ , ] Schuman uye nemuti (1996) nharo kuti mirairo mubvunzo dai basa nokuti mifananidzo maviri ukama pakati mibvunzo: mibvunzo chikamu-chikamu umo mibvunzo miviri vari chete pamwero specificity (semuenzaniso ratings vaviri musarudzo dzemutungamiriri wenyika); uye mibvunzo chikamu-yose apo wemauto mubvunzo anotevera mubvunzo chaiwo (eg vachikumbira "sei kugutsikana Uri nebasa rako?" ichiteverwa "sei kugutsikana Uri noupenyu hwako?").
Ivo zvakare unhu nezvemarudzi maviri mubvunzo kuti kushanda: kusachinja-chinja zvinokonzerwa kuitika apo mhinduro mubvunzo kwapera vanounzwa pedyo (kupfuura vaizova zvikasadaro kuva) vaya vakapiwa akamborasiswa mubvunzo; siyanisa Migumisiro kuitika kana paine mukuru misiyano pakati mhinduro dzemibvunzo miviri.
[ , ] Kuvakira basa Schuman uye nemuti, Moore (2002) rinorondedzera yoga tinosiyana mubvunzo kuti kushanda: chirungiso uye subtractive. Nepo Kusiyana uye kusachinja-chinja zvinokonzerwa anogadzirwa sezvo migumisiro vakabvunzwa 'Mutengo vaviri zvinhu pachinhu mumwe, chirungiso uye subtractive zvinokonzerwa anogadzirwa apo vakabvunzwa dzinoitwa unetseke kuti hombe asingaputsi mukati iyo mibvunzo yakabvunzwa. Read Moore (2002) , ipapo kugadzira kumhanya pokuongorora kuedza musi MTurk kuratidza chirungiso kana subtractive nemigumisiro.
[ , ] Christopher Antoun uye nevamwe (2015) vaidzidza kuenzanisa nyore ivhu vakawana kubva ina dzakasiyana paIndaneti arirwise manyuko: MTurk, Craigslist, Google AdWords uye Facebook. Vagoronga nyore kuongorora uye rokutsvaka vechikamu kuburikidza dzinenge mbiri dzakasiyana paIndaneti arirwise manyuko (vanogona kuva zvinyorwa zvakasiyana panonyuka mana yaishandiswa Antoun et al. (2015) ).
[ ] YouGov, paIndaneti-inobva tsvakurudzo musika yakasimba, inoitwa paIndaneti sokudaro ane eDare vanenge 800,000 vakabvunzurudzwa muUK uye akashandisa Mr. P. kufanotaura mugumisiro EU referendamu (kureva, Brexit) apo UK vavhoti kuvhota kana kuramba mukati kana kusiya European Union.
A tsananguro yakatodzama YouGov kwakaita uwandu womuenzaniso pano (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/yougov-referendum-model/). Nehasha kutaura, YouGov partitions vavhoti mukati mhando kwakavakirwa 2015 talk sarudzo sarudzo sarudzo, zera, zvinodiwa, munhurume, gore hurukuro, uyewo constituency yavanogara. Chokutanga, vakashandisa mashoko inounganidzwa kubva YouGov panelists kufungidzira, pakati pevaya uyo kuvhota, kuwanda kwevanhu mumwe voter mhando uyo kuda kuvhota Leave. Ivo vanofungidzira turnout neimwe voter mhando nokushandisa 2015 British Election Study (BES) post-sarudzo chiso nechiso ongororo, izvo zvakapupurira turnout kubva nesarudzo mabhanzi. Pakupedzisira, ivo vanofungidzira kuti vanhu vangani varipo mumwe voter mhando ari electorate yakavakirwa azvino Census uye Annual Population Survey (nevamwe Kuwedzera ruzivo kubva BES, YouGov ongororo Data pasi rwevanhu musarudzo, uye ruzivo pamusoro sei vanhu vazhinji akavhotera bato rimwe nerimwe constituency).
Mazuva matatu asati sarudzo, YouGov yakaratidza mbiri nguva kutungamirira nokuda Leave. Pausiku kuvhota, nomumwe akaratidza zvakare pedyo kudana (49-51 Ramba). Chokupedzisira pamusoro-the-zuva kudzidza vakafanotaura 48/52 vachida Ramba (https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/yougov-day-poll/). Kutaura zvazviri, kufungidzira uku akarasikirwa kwokupedzisira mugumisiro (52-48 Leave) mana kubva muzana pfungwa.
[ , ] Nyora simulation kuenzanisira mumwe nomumwe mufananidzo kumbokanganisawo Figure 3.1.
[ , ] Ongororo pamusoro Blumenstock uye nevamwe (2015) zvaisanganisira kuvaka muchina pakudzidza womuenzaniso kuti aigona kushandisa digitaalinen zvisaririra Data kufanotaura ongororo mhinduro. Zvino, muri kuenda kuedza zvimwechete ane zvakasiyana dataset. Kosinski, Stillwell, and Graepel (2013) vakawana kuti Facebook anofarira anogona kufanotaura mumwe unhu uye unhu hwake. Zvinoshamisa, uprofita izvi zvinogona kunyanya yakarurama kupfuura shamwari uye nevamwe (Youyou, Kosinski, and Stillwell 2015) .
[ ] Toole et al. (2015) Kushandisa runhare yksityiskohta zvinyorwa (CDRs) kubva dzeserura kufanotaura uwandu hwezvinhu zvose zvabatanidzwa. urovha kuitika.