4.4.3 Nzira dzinoshandiswa

Kuedza kuyera zvakaitika. Zvenhengo tsanangura nei uye sei zvakaitika.

Chinhu chechitatu chinokosha chekufamba kunze kwekutsvaga tsanangudzo ndiyo nzira . Nzira dzinotiudza kuti sei kana kuti kurapwa kwakakanganisa sei. Nzira yekutsvaga nzira dzinowanzonziwo kutsvaga matanho anopindira kana kupindira mhando . Kunyange zvazvo kuedza kwakakosha kuenzanisa zvinokonzerwa nezvinokonzera, zvinowanzosati zvagadzirirwa kuratidza nzira. Dhigirii yedzidzo inogona kutibatsira kuziva nzira nenzira mbiri: (1) dzinotibatsira kuti tive nekuunganidza zvakanyanya dhidhiro uye (2) dzinotibatsira kuti tiongorore mishonga yakawanda yakafanana.

Nokuti nzira dzakanyanyisa kurondedzera zvakajeka (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , ndichaenda nekutanga nyore: limes uye scurvy (Gerber and Green 2012) . Muzana remakore gumi nemasere, vanachiremba vakanga vane pfungwa yakanaka chaizvo apo vafambisi vezvikepe vaidya mavhiri, havana kuwana scurvy. Scurvy chirwere chinotyisa, saka ichi chaiva ruzivo rwakasimba. Asi ava vanachiremba vakanga vasingazivi kuti nei mairiya akadzivirira scurvy. Yakanga isati yasvika muna 1932, anenge makore makumi maviri gare gare, kuti masayendisiti aigona kuratidza kutendeseka kuti vitamini C ndicho chikonzero chokuti chimi chakadzivirira scurvy (Carpenter 1988, 191) . Muchiitiko ichi, vitamini C ndiyo nzira inoshandiswa nemidziyo yezvimiti kudzivirira scurvy (mufananidzo 4.10). Zvechokwadi, kuzivikanwa kwegadziriro zvakare kunokosha zvikuru nesayenzi-dzakawanda svesayenzi ndezvekunzwisisa kuti sei zvinhu zvichiitika. Kuziva nzira dzinokosha chaizvo. Kana tikangonzwisisa kuti sei kurapwa kunoshanda, tinogona kutanga kugadzira mushonga mutsva unoshanda zviri nani.

Mufananidzo 4.10: Mimiriro inodzivirira svurvy uye zvinogadzirwa ne vitamini C.

Zvinosuruvarisa, kuparadzanisa nzira kunonetsa zvikuru. Kusiyana nemarimu uye scurvy, munzvimbo dzakawanda dzenzanga, mushonga unogona kunge uchishanda kuburikidza nenzira dzakawanda dzakabatana. Zvisinei, munyaya yemagariro evanhu uye kushandiswa kwesimba, vatsvakurudzi vakaedza kuparadzanisa nzira kuburikidza nekuunganidza nzira yekugadzirisa dambudziko uye kurapwa kwakafanana.

Imwe nzira yekuedza nzira dzinogona kuitika ndeyokuunganidza kuunganidza dambudziko pamusoro pekuti kurapwa kwakakanganisa sei nzira dzinogona kuitika. Somuenzaniso, yeuka kuti Allcott (2011) yakaratidza kuti Home Energy Reports yakaita kuti vanhu vaderedze kushandiswa kwemagetsi. Asi izvi zvakabudisa sei kushandiswa kwemagetsi kuderera? Ndeipi maitiro? Mune chidzidzo chekutsvaga, Allcott and Rogers (2014) vakawirirana nekambani ye simba iyo, kuburikidza nehurongwa hwekuburitsa, yakanga iwana ruzivo pamusoro peivo vatengi vakagadzirisa midziyo yavo kune mamwe masimba anobudirira. Allcott and Rogers (2014) vakawana kuti vanhu vashoma vanogamuchira Home Energy Reports vakagadzirisa midziyo yavo. Asi musiyano uyu waiva muduku zvokuti unogona kuverenga 2% chete yekuderera kwekushandisa kwekushandisa mumhuri yakarapwa. Mune mamwe mazwi, kuvandudzwa kwekugadzirisa zvinhu kwakanga kusiri nzira inonyanya kushandiswa iyo Home Energy Report iyo yakaderedza kushandiswa kwemagetsi.

Nzira yechipiri yekudzidza nzira ndeyekuedza kuongororwa nemapurogiramu akasiyana-siyana ekurapa. Somuenzaniso, mukuedzwa Schultz et al. (2007) uye zvose zvinotevera zvinoitwa neImba Energy Energy Report, vatori vechikamu vakapiwa kurapwa kwakange kune zvikamu zviviri zvikuru (1) mazano pamusoro pekuchengetedza kwemaji uye (2) ruzivo pamusoro pekushandisa kwavo simba maererano nevezera ravo (Mufananidzo 4.6). Nokudaro, zvinogoneka kuti mazano ekuponesa simba ndiwo akaita kuti kuchinja, kwete ruzivo rwevezera rako. Kuti uongorore kuti zvinogona kunge zvingangodaro kuti zano iri roga raive rakakwana, Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) vakawirirana nekambani yemvura pedyo neAtlanta, Georgia, uye vakashandisa chiitiko chakafanana pamusoro pekuchengetedza kwemvura kunosvika mamiriyoni 100 000. Paiva nemamiriro mana:

• boka rakagamuchira mazano ekuchengetedza mvura
• boka rakagamuchira mazano ekuchengetedza mvura pamwe nekuda kwetsika kuchengetedza mvura
• boka rakagamuchira mazano ekuchengetedza mvura pamwe nekuda kwetsika kuchengetedza mvura pamwe nemashoko pamusoro pemashandisirwo ayo emvura maererano nevezera ravo
• boka rinodzora

Vatsvakurudzi vakaona kuti chirongwa-kurapa chete chakanga chisina simba pamashandisirwo emvura munguva pfupi (gore rimwe), pakati (makore maviri), uye kwenguva refu (makore matatu) nguva. Iro zano pamwe nekurapa kwakakonzera vatori vechikamu kuderedza kushandiswa kwemvura, asi munguva pfupi. Pakupedzisira, mazano pamwe nekukumbira kunyanya kufanana nehutano hwemashoko kwakakonzera kuderedzwa kushandiswa munguva shoma, midhi, uye kwenguva refu (mufananidzo 4.11). Aya maitiro ekuedzwa nemishonga isina kukwana ndiyo nzira yakanaka yekuona chikamu chipi chekurapa-kana zvikamu zvipi pamwe chete-ndizvo zvinokonzera (Gerber and Green 2012, sec. 10.6) . Somuenzaniso, kuedza kwaFerraro nevamwe vatinonamata navo kunotiratidza kuti mazano ekuchengetedza mvura ari oga haana kukwana kuderedza kushandiswa kwemvura.

Mufananidzo 4.11: Zviwanikwa kubva kuna Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . Mishonga yakatumirwa musi waMay 21, 2007, uye migumisiro yakaenzaniswa munguva yechando cha2008, 2008, uye 2009. Nokusunungura kurapwa, vatsvakurudzi vaitarisira kukudziridza pfungwa iri nani yezvirongwa. Iro zano-chete raive risina basa mune zviduku (gore rimwe), riri pakati (makore maviri), uye kwenguva refu (makore matatu) nguva. Iyo zano pamwe nekurapa kwekukumbira kwakaita kuti vatori vechikamu vatadzwe kushandiswa kwemvura, asi munguva pfupi. Iro zano pamwe nechikumbiro pamwe chete nevezera rako rutsigiro rwehutano rakaita kuti vatori vechikamu vatadzwe kushandiswa kwemvura munguva shoma, midhi, uye kwenguva refu. Mabheji akaenzana anofungidzirwa nguva dzekutenda. Ona Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) zvive zvakanyatsogadzirwa. Yakagadzirwa kubva kuna Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) , tafura 1.

Zvakanaka, mumwe aizotamira mberi kwekugadzika kwezvikamu (mazano; mazano pamwe nekukumbira; mazano pamwe nechikumbiro pamwe chete neruzivo rwevezera) kune zvakakwana zvekugadzira-uye dzimwe nguva kunonzi \(2^k\) zvinhu zvitatu zvakaongororwa (tafura 4.1). Nokuedza zvose zvingaita kusanganiswa kwezvikamu, vatsvakurudzi vanogona kuongorora zvakakwana kushanda kwechikamu chega chega muga voga uye pamwe chete. Semuenzaniso, kuedza kwaFerraro nevamwe vashandi hakuratidzi kana kuenzaniswa kwevezera chete kwaizove kwakakwana kutungamirira kuchinjwa kwenguva refu mukuzvibata. Munguva yakapfuura, izvi zvizere zvekugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvakange zvakaoma kumhanya nokuti dzinoda nhamba huru yevatori vechikamu uye dzinoda kuti vatsvakurudzi vakwanise kutonga zvakakwana uye kuunza nhamba dzakawanda dzorapwa. Asi, mune mamwe mamiriro ezvinhu, makore edijitori anobvisa zvinetso izvi.

Mukupfupisa, nzira-nzira dzinoshandiswa nekurapa dzine simba-dzinokosha zvikuru. Dhiyabhorosi yedzidzo inogona kubatsira vatsvakurudzi kudzidza nezvenzira kuburikidza ne (1) kuunganidza dhidhiro data uye (2) kugonesa full factorial designs. Nzira dzakarongwa nenzira idzi dzinogona kuongororwa zvakananga nekuongororwa zvakanyatsogadzirirwa kuongorora nzira (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

Pamwe chete, aya mazano matatu-kuvimbika, huterogeneity yemigumisiro yechirwere, uye nzira-inopa maitiro ane simba emagariro ekugadzira nekududzira zvidzidzo. Aya mazano anobatsira vanotsvakurudza kuti vaite zvinopfuura zvese zvisinganzwisisiki pamusoro pe "mabasa" ekutsvaga kwakadzama kunowirirana zvakananga nedzidziso, izvo zvinoratidza kuti nei uye nei zvipatara zvinoshanda, uye izvo zvingatoitawo kuti vatsvakurudzi vagadzire kurapa kwakanaka. Zvichipa iyi mhedziso yemangwana pamusoro pekuedza, ini zvino ndava kutendeuka kuti iwe unogona sei kuita kuti zviitiko zvako zviitike.