2.4.2 kufungidzira uye nowcasting
Zvichaitika zvakaoma, asi vachifanotaura choupfu nyore.
Chirongwa chechipiri chekutsvaga vatsvakurudzi vanogona kushandiswa nekucherechedza dheta kunofungidzira . Kuita kuti tifungisise nezvemangwana hazvizivikanwe zvakaoma, uye zvichida nokuda kwechikonzero ichocho, kufungidzira hakusi ikozvino chikamu chikuru chekutsvakurudza kwevanhu (kunyange zvazvo chiri chikamu chiduku uye chakakosha chemaitiro, economi, epidemiology uye nesayenzi yezvematongerwo enyika). Pano, zvisinei, ndinoda kuisa pfungwa pahuwandu hwekufananidza hunoti " manjecasting" izwi rinobva mukubatanidza "zvino" uye "kutarisirwa." Pane kufanotaura nezvemangwana, kushambadzira kuedza kushandiswa pfungwa kubva pakufananidza kuongorora hurumende iripo wenyika; inoedza "kufanotaura zviripo" (Choi and Varian 2012) . Inocasting inogona kuve yakakosha zvikuru kune hurumende nemakambani anoda zviyero zvakakodzera nenguva uye zvakarurama zvenyika.
Imwe inogadzirisa apo kudiwa kwenguva yakakodzera uye yakarurama kujekesa zvakajeka zvikuru epidemiology. Funga nezvenyaya yefivha ("chirwere"). Gore roga roga, zvirwere zvehutachiona zvemwaka zvinokonzera mamiriyoni ezvirwere uye mazana ezviuru zvevanhu vanofa pasi pose. Uyezve, gore roga roga, kune mukana wekuti fomu yenhamba yehutano inogona kubuda iyo inogona kuuraya mamiriyoni. Izvo (Morens and Fauci 2007) , somuenzaniso, inofungidzirwa kuti yakauraya pakati pevanhu makumi mashanu nemamiriyoni zana (Morens and Fauci 2007) . Nemhaka yekudiwa kwekutarisa uye inogona kutarisana nehuwandu hwechirwere ichibuda, hurumende dzakapoteredza nyika dzakagadzira fenza chirongwa chekuongorora. Somuenzaniso, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) nguva dzose uye inogadzirisa zvinyorwa kubva kune vanachiremba vakasarudzwa munyika yose. Kunyange zvazvo iyi sarudzo inobereka dhidhi yepamusoro, inofanirwa kurehwa. Izvi zvinoreva, nokuti nguva inotora kuti dhaka isvike kubva kuvakadzi kunoshambidzwa, kushandiswa, uye kuparidzirwa, CDC system inodonha kuongororwa kwehuwandu hwe furu hwakanga huine vhiki mbiri yapfuura. Asi, pakubata chirwere chinotanga kubuda, vakuru vehutano vemazuva ose havadi kuziva huwandu hwehutano hwakanga huri mavhiki maviri akapfuura; ivo vanoda kuziva kuti furu yakawanda sei ikozvino iye zvino.
Panguva imwechete iyo CDC iri kuunganidza deta kuti ichengetedze furuwenza, Google iri kuunganidza zvakare nezvehuwandu hwehutachiona hwehuwandu, kunyange huri nenzira yakasiyana. Vanhu vanobva kumativi ose enyika vari kutumira mibvunzo kuGoogle, uye mamwe emibvunzo iyi-yakadai se "chirwere chemvura" uye "zviratidzo zvekurwara" - zvinogona kuratidza kuti munhu ari kuita mubvunzo ane chirwere. Asi, uchishandisa mibvunzo iyi yekutsvaga kuenzanisa kupararira kwechirwere inonyangadza: havasi vose vane chirwere chinokonzera chirwere chekutsvaga, uye kwete tsvina yose-yakabatana inobva kune mumwe munhu ane chirwere.
Jeremy Ginsberg pamwe neboka revashandi pamwe chete (2009) , vamwe paGoogle uye vamwe paCDC, vane pfungwa yakakosha uye yakangwara yekubatanidza zvinhu zviviri izvi. Zvichida, kuburikidza nemhando yezvinyorwa zvealchemy, vatsvakurudzi vakabatana nedzidziso yekutsvaga uye isina kururama yakagadzikana ne data yakaderera uye yakajeka yeCDC kuitira kuti ibudise zvidimbu uye zvakajeka zviyero zvehuwandu hwehutano. Imwe nzira yekufunga nayo ndeyokuti vakashandisa tsvakurudzo yekutsvaga kuti ikurumidze kudhinda CDC.
Kunyanya kunyanya, kushandiswa kwemashoko kubva muna 2003 kusvika muna 2007, Ginsberg nevanoshanda navo vaifungidzira ukama huri pakati pehuwandu hwehutachiwana mumadhipatimendi eCDC uye izwi rekutsvaga mamiriyoni makumi mashanu emitemo yakasiyana. Kubva pane izvi, izvo zvaive zvakanyatsotariswa-deta uye zvisingadi ruzivo rwehutano rwakakosha, vatsvakurudzi vakawana mutsara wemibvunzo makumi maviri nemashanu yakaratidzika kuva inofanirwa kunyanya kuitika kweDCDC yehuwandu hwehuwandu hwemashoko. Zvadaro, achishandisa ukama hwavakadzidza kubva munharaunda ye2003-2007, Ginsberg nevamwe vaishanda navo vakaedza mienzaniso yavo mukati megore ra2008-2008 fenza. Vakaona kuti maitiro avo anogona zvechokwadi kuita zvigaro uye zvakajeka zvinyorwa zvino (mufananidzo 2.6). Izvi zvabuda zvakabudiswa muChimi uye zvakagamuchirwa kuparidzirwa kwemashoko. Iyi purojekiti-iyo yainzi Google Flu Trends-yakava inowanzobudiswa mufananidzo pamusoro pesimba remashoko makuru ekuchinja nyika.
Mufananidzo 2.6: Jeremy Ginsberg nevamwe vashandi (2009) vakabatanidza Google tsvakurudzo yeDCD neDCDC kuumba Google Flu Trends, iyo inogona kuvhara mukana wehutachiona-sehutano (ILI). Migumisiro iyi mumufananidzo ndeyekati pakati peAtlantic munzvimbo yeUnited States mugore ra2008-2008 fenza. Kunyange zvazvo pakutanga chaive chichivimbisa, kushanda kweGoogle Flu Trends kwakashata munguva yakareba (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013; Lazer et al. 2014) . Yakagadzirirwa kubva Ginsberg et al. (2009) , mufananidzo 3.
Zvisinei, izvi zvakajeka nhau yekubudirira yakazopedzisira yava kunyara. Nokufamba kwenguva, vatsvakurudzi vakawana zvipingamupinyi zviviri zvinokosha zvinoita kuti Google Flu Trends isashamise kupfuura iyo yakatanga kuonekwa. Kutanga, kushanda kweGoogle Flu Trends kwakanga kusiri nani kupfuura iyo yemuenzaniso wakajeka unofungidzira huwandu hwechirwere huchienderana nehuwandu hwekuwedzera huripo kubva kune zvikamu zviviri zvemazuva ano zvakakonzerwa nehuwandu hwechirwere (Goel et al. 2010) . Uye, pane dzimwe nguva, Google Flu Trends yaive yakaipisisa kupfuura iyi iri nyore (Lazer et al. 2014) . Mune mamwe mazwi, Google Flu Trends nezvose zvayo, data yekudzidza, uye makombiyuta ane simba hazvina kunyanya kusimbisa zvakajeka uye zviri nyore-kunzwisisa-kunzwisisa. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti kana uchitarisisa chero hutungamiri kana hutachiona, zvakakosha kuenzanirana nechekutanga.
Chechipiri inokosha yevhavha yeGoogle Flu Trends ndeyokuti kukwanisa kwayo kufanotaura dhepfenyuro yeCDC yakagadzirirwa kusakirwa kwenguva pfupi uye kuora kwenguva refu nekuda kwekukanda uye kushandiswa kwegadziriro . Semuenzaniso, panguva ya2004 Fine Flu kuputika kweGoogle Flu Trends inoshamisa inofungidzira huwandu hwehutachiona, zvichida nokuti vanhu vanowanzochinja mararamiro avo ekutsvaga mukupararira kwekutya kwepasi rose (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . Mukuwedzera kune zvinetso zvenguva pfupi, kushanda kwacho kwakaderera zvishoma nezvishoma. Kuongorora zvikonzero zvekuora kwemazuva mazhinji kwakakosha nokuti kutsvakurudza kweGoogle kutsvaga, asi zvinoita sekuti muna 2011 Google yakatanga kupa mazano ekutsvakurudza kwakafanana apo vanhu vachitsvaga zvirwere zvekurwara zvakadai se "fever" uye "chifukidziro" (zvinoratidzikawo kuti ichi chinenge chisisashandi). Kuwedzera ichi chiitiko chinhu chakanaka chaunogona kuita kana iwe uri kushanda injini yekutsvaga, asi kushandurwa kwechirongwa chechirongwa chekushandura kwakagadzirisa kuwedzera kutsvaga kwehutano hwakakonzera zvakaita kuti Google Flu Trends kuve nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwechirwere (Lazer et al. 2014) .
Aya mabhanhire maviri anomanikidzira ramangwana rekuedza, asi haazviiti. Ichokwadi, nokushandisa nzira dzakanyatsochenjerera, Lazer et al. (2014) uye Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) vakakwanisa kudzivisa matambudziko aya maviri. Kuenderera mberi, ndinotarisira kuti zvidzidzo zvekutsvaga izvo zvinobatanidza makuru makuru emadhora nemutsvakurudzo-anounganidza dambudziko zvichaita kuti kambani nehurumende dzigadzire zvakanyanya nguva uye zvakajeka kuongororwa kuburikidza nekukurumidza kuwedzera chero upi hupi hunoitwa kakawanda nekufamba kwenguva nemamwe. Mishonga yezvinocasting yakafanana neGoogle Flu Trends inoratidza zvakare zvinogona kuitika kana makuru makuru ezvinyorwa akabatanidzwa nedzimwe nhepfenyuro dzezvakaitika zvakagadzirwa nokuda kwekutsvakurudza. Kufunga nezvekufananidzira kwechimiro chechitsauko 1, kusvitsa kunogona kubatanidza Duchamp-style readymades neMichelangelo-maitiro ekuchengetedza maitiro kuitira kuti vaite chisarudzo vaine nguva yakawanda uye yakarurama yakakwana yezvino uye zvagara zvataurwa munguva yemberi iri mberi.
