2.4.1 Counting zvinhu
Simple ngaakudze inogona kunakidza kana iwe sangana mubvunzo zvakanaka mashoko akanaka.
Kunyange zvazvo yakafukidzwa mumutauro wakaoma-unyanzvi, kutsvakurudza kwakawanda kwevanhu munzanga kuri kungoverenga zvinhu. Muzera remakore makuru, vatsvakurudzi vanokwanisa kuverenga kupfuura kare, asi izvozvo hazvirevi kuti ivo vanofanira kungotanga kuverenga pasina. Pane kudaro, vatsvakurudzi vanofanira kubvunza kuti: Ndezvipi zvinhu zvinokosha kuverenga? Izvi zvingaita sechinhu chakakwana chose, asi kune mamwe maitiro akazara.
Kakawanda vadzidzi vanokurudzira kuverenga kwavo tsvakurudzo vachiti: Ndiri kuverenga chimwe chinhu chisina kumbobvira chakaverengwa. Semuenzaniso, mudzidzi angati vanhu vazhinji vakaverenga vanhu vanoenda kune dzimwe nyika uye vanhu vazhinji vakadzidza mapatya, asi hapana munhu akadzidza mapatya maviri. Mukuziva kwangu, urongwa uhwu, hwandinoti chikonzero nekusavapo , hausi kazhinji hunoita kuti uwane tsvakurudzo yakanaka. Kukurudzirwa nekusavapo kwakangoita sokuti pane hove kumusoro uko, uye ndiri kuenda kushanda zvakaoma kuti ndizadze. Asi kwete mimwe yose inofanira kuzadzwa.
Panzvimbo yekukurudzira nekusavapo, ndinofunga nzira iri nani ndeyokutsvaga mibvunzo yekutsvakurudza iyo inokosha kana inonakidza (kana kuti zvose zviri zviviri). Zvose izvi zvakaoma zvakaoma kutsanangura, asi imwe nzira yekufunga pamusoro pekutsvakurudza inokosha ndeyokuti ine zvimwe zvinogona kuenzanisa kana kuidya muchisarudzo chakakosha nevanoita mitemo. Semuenzaniso, kuenzanisa uwandu hwehusha hwemabasa hwakakosha nokuti inoratidzira yehupfumi inotungamirira zvinangwa zvekutonga. Kazhinji, ndinofunga kuti vatsvakurudzi vane pfungwa yakanaka yezvinokosha. Saka, mune zvimwe zvose chikamu chino, ndichaenda kunopa mienzaniso miviri apo ndinofunga kuverenga kunonakidza. Munyaya imwe neimwe, vatsvakurudzi vakanga vasingaverengi pasina; pane kudaro, vaive vachiverenga mumamiriro ezvinhu chaiwo akajekesa pfungwa dzinokosha mune dzimwe pfungwa dzakawanda pamusoro pekuti masangano ehurumende anoshanda sei. Mune mamwe mazwi, zvakawanda zvezvinoita kuti kunyanya kuverenga zviito zvinonakidza hazvizi iyo pachayo, inobva kune idzi dzakawanda pfungwa.
Mumwe muenzaniso wesimba shoma rokuverenga unobva kuna Henry Farber's (2015) kudzidza kwekuita kwevatyairi vematareji eNew York City. Kunyange zvazvo boka iri ringave risingaoneki sechinhu chinonakidza, iyi inzvimbo yekutsvakurudza nzvimbo yekuongorora mazano maviri okukwikwidzana mune zvebasa rezvemari. Nezvinangwa zvekutsvakurudza kwaFarber, kune zvikamu zviviri zvinokosha pamusoro pemamiriro ekushanda kwevatyairi vematekisi: (1) mibairo yavo yeawa yega inoshanduka kubva zuva rimwe nerimwe, inowanikwa mune zvimwe zvinhu zvakadai semamiriro okunze, uye (2) nhamba yeawa basa rinogona kuchinja zuva roga roga kubva pane zvavanosarudza. Izvi zvinotungamirira kumubvunzo unonakidza pamusoro pehukama pakati pemari yeawa imwe uye maawa anoshandiswa. Neoclassical models mu economics vanofanotaura kuti vatyairi vematokisi vachashanda zvakawanda mumazuva apo pavanenge vachikwira maawa akawanda. Zvimwe, maenzaniso kubva kuhutano hwehupfumi anofanotaura chaizvo zvakasiyana. Kana vatyairi vachiisa mari inowanikwa-inoti $ 100 pazuva-uye kushanda kusvikira icho chinangwa chasangana, zvino vatyairi vachabva vashanda maawa mashomanana pamazuva avo vari kuwana mamwe. Somuenzaniso, kana iwe wakanga uchida kuwana, unogona kupedza maawa mana pazuva rakanaka ($ 25 neawa) uye maawa mashanu pazuva rakaipa ($ 20 neawa). Saka, vanotyairi vanoshanda maawa akawanda mumazuva ane maawa akawanda aripo (sezvazvagara zvataurwa neooclassical models) kana maawa akawanda pamazuva ane mamiriyoni mashoma mubhadharo (sekufanotaurwa nemaitiro ezvehupfumi)?
Kuti tipindure mubvunzo uyu Farber akawana ruzivo rwendo rwese rwetekisi rwakatorwa neNew York City cabs kubva muna 2009 kusvika muna 2013, data iripo zvino kuwanikwa pachena. Iyi data-iyo yakaunganidzwa nemagetsi emagetsi zvokuti guta rinoda taisisi kuti rishandise-rinosanganisira ruzivo pamusoro perwendo rumwechete: kutanga nguva, kutanga nzvimbo, nguva yekupedzisira, nzvimbo yekupedzisira, kuenda, uye chidimbu (kana chidimbu chaibhadharwa nekadhi rechikwereti) . Uchishandisa deta yematareji ematareji, Farber akawana kuti vanodhairi vakawanda vanoshanda zvakawanda mumazuva apo mibairo yakakwirira, yakaenderana neoclassical theory.
Mukuwedzera pane kutsvaga kukuru, Farber akakwanisa kushandisa ukuru hwemashoko ekunzwisiswa zviri nani kwehutano hwakanaka uye simba. Akaona kuti, nokufamba kwenguva, vatyairi vatsva vanodzidza zvishoma nezvishoma kushanda maawa akawanda pamasikati makuru (semuenzaniso, vanodzidza kuzvibata sezvinonzi neoclassical model inofanotaura). Uye vatyairi vatsva vanoita sevamwe vanowanikwa muchengeti vanowanzoita kuti varege kuva vatyairi vematekisi. Zvose izvi zvakawanikwa zvisinganzwisisiki, izvo zvinobatsira kutsanangura maitiro akacherechedzirwa evanotyairi vemazuva ano, zvaingokwanisa chete nekuda kwehukuru hwe dataset. Vakanga vasingakwanisi kuongorora mune zvidzidzo zvekare zvakashandisa mapepa mafambi mapepa kubva kune vashomanana vatyairi vematekisi kwenguva pfupi (Camerer et al. 1997) .
Farber's study yakange iri pedyo nekanakisisa-mamiriro ezvinhu akanaka ekutsvakurudza achishandisa guru dhiyabhorosi nokuti dhesi iyo yakaunganidzwa neguta yakanga iri pedyo nemashoko aFarber aizounganidza (rimwe mutsauko ndeyekuti Farber angadai aida deta pachikamu mubhadharo-inotora pamwe nemazano-asi yedhorodha data inosanganisira mazano akabhadhwa nekadhi kadhikiti). Zvisinei, iyo data chete yakanga isina kukwana. Chinokosha chekutsvakurudza kwaFarber kwaiva kuunza mubvunzo unofadza kune data, mubvunzo une zvinorehwa zvikuru kunze kwechinhu ichi chaiwo.
Muenzaniso wechipiri wekuverenga zvinhu unobva pakutsvakurudzwa naGary King, Jennifer Pan, naMolly Roberts (2013) pakutsoropodza paIndaneti nehurumende yeChina. Muchiitiko ichi, zvisinei, vatsvakurudzi vaifanira kutora dheta ravo guru uye vaifanira kutarisana nechokwadi chokuti data yavo yakanga isina kukwana.
Mambo uye vaaishanda navo vaisimudzirwa nechokuti mitambo yezvemagariro evanhu muChina inofungidzirwa nehukuru hwehurumende zvombo zvinofungidzirwa kusanganisira makumi ezviuru zvevanhu. Vanotsvakurudza uye vagari venyika, zvisinei, havana ruzivo rwekuti matsva aya anogadzirisa sei zvinyorwa zvinofanira kubviswa. Nyanzvi dzeChina chaizvoizvo dzinotarisira zvinopesana pamusoro pemhando dzipi dzemahofisi dzinowanzobviswa. Vamwe vanofunga kuti censor inotarisa pane zvigaro zvinoshora nyika, asi vamwe vanofunga kuti vanoisa pfungwa pazvinyorwa zvinokurudzira maitiro evanhu, sekupemberera. Kuenzanisa kuti ndezvipi izvi zvinotarisirwa zvakarurama kune zvinokonzera kuti vatsvakurudzi vanonzwisisa sei China uye dzimwe hurumende dzehurumende dzinobata basa rekuongorora. Saka, Mambo uye vashandi vake vaida kuenzanisa zvikamu izvo zvakabudiswa uye zvakabva zvabviswa nemapapiro akabudiswa uye haana kumbobviswa.
Kuunganidza mbiru izvi zvaisanganisira kunoshamisa michina Feat unouraya anopfuura 1,000 Chinese evanhu vezvenhau Websites-mumwe chete siyana peji Layouts-kuwana akakodzera mbiru, uye ipapo achizodzishanyirazve mbiru izvi kuona izvo zvava dzadzimwa. Kuwedzera inowanzotorwa mapurani matambudziko chokuita pamwero web-kukambaira, chirongwa ichi aiva akawedzera dambudziko kuti vaifanira kuva chaizvo kutsanya nokuti vazhinji akaongororwa namagwatidziro vanotorwa pasi maawa asingasviki 24. Nemamwe mashoko, munhu anononoka Crawler aizosuwa mijenya mapango vakanga akaongororwa. Uyezve, crawlers aifanira kuita zvose izvi date muunganidzwa apo Achinzvenga vasabatwa zvimwe evanhu nevezvenhau Websites isabudisa kana zvimwewo kuchinja mitemo yavo pakupindurwa kudzidza.
Nenguva iyo basa guru rekugadzira rakange rapera, Mambo nevashandi vainge vawana mamiriyoni gumi nemana gumi nematanhatu pamusoro pemisoro dzakasiyana-siyana dzakagadziriswa, imwe neimwe ine nhamba yekufungidzirwa yekunzwisisika. Semuenzaniso, nheyo yepamusoro senitivity ndiAi Weiwei, muveki wezvakaitika; nheyo yepakatikati yekunzwisisika ndekuonga uye kuongororwa kwemari yeChinese, uye nenyaya yekunzwa tsitsi ndeyeNyika yeNyika. Pamitauro iyi mamiriyoni gumi nemana, anenge mamiriyoni maviri akanga ataurwa. Zvimwe zvinoshamisa kuti Mambo uye vaaishanda navo vakawana kuti zvigaro pamusoro zvakanyanyisa zvakanyatsorongedzwa zvishoma nezvishoma pane zvinyorwa pamusangano wepakati-uye pasi-senzwi. Mune mamwe mazwi, chiChinese censor inenge inogona kunge inofanirwa kunyora nzvimbo iyo inotaura nezveAi Weiwei senzvimbo inotaura nezveHondo yeNyika. Izvi zvitsva hazvibatsiri pfungwa yokuti hurumende inofungidzira zvikamu zvose pamusoro pehurukuro dzine musoro.
Iyi kuverenga yakajeka yeshamba rekudzivirira nehurukuro inogona kutsausa, zvisinei. Semuenzaniso, hurumende inogona kutsvaga zvigaro zvinotsigira Ai Weiwei, asi siya zvinyorwa zvinomupomera. Kuti tisiyanise pakati pezvinyorwa zvakanyatsofungisisa, vatsvakurudzi vaifanira kuenzanisa manzwiro emumwe mushure. Zvinosuruvarisa, pasinei nebasa rakawanda, nzira dzakakwana dzekutora manzwiro achishandura dictionaries risati dzavepo hachiri dzakanaka mumamiriro ezvinhu akawanda (funga zvakare kumatambudziko ekugadzira nguva yekufungidzira yaSeptember 11, 2001 inotsanangurwa muchikamu 2.3.9). Nokudaro, Mambo uye vashandi pamwe navo vaida nzira yekutaura mamiriyoni gumi nematanhatu ezvehuwandu hwemashoko ezvehupfumi pamusoro pekunge (1) anonyanya kukosha hurumende, (2) achitsigira hurumende, kana (3) nhoroondo dzisinganzwisisiki kana dzechokwadi pamusoro pezviitiko. Izvi zvinonzwika semabasa makuru, asi vakagadzirisa vachishandisa simba rinonyanya kushandiswa mune data data asi zvisinganzwisisi mumasayendisiti: dzidzo yakatariswa ; ona mufananidzo 2.5.
Chokutanga, mune imwe nhanho inonzi inonzi preprocessing , vatsvakurudzi vakashandura zvinyorwa zvemashoko ezvehuwandu mune zvinyorwa-matrix matrix , uko kwaive nemuganhu mumwe wepepa imwe neimwe uye imwe korombo yakanyora kana chinyorwa chacho chaive neshoko rinoreva (semuenzaniso, kupikisa kana kuti traffic) . Zvadaro, boka revanotsvakurudza ruzivo rwakabata ruoko-rwakanyora manzwiro emuenzaniso wezvinyorwa. Zvadaro, vakashandisa dhiyabhorosi iyi kuti vaumbe mhando yekudzidza mhando iyo inogona kukonzera manzwiro ezvinyorwa zvichienderana nemamiriro ayo. Pakupedzisira, vakashandisa muenzaniso uyu kuenzanisa manzwiro ezviuru gumi nemamiriyoni.
Nokudaro, panzvimbo yekuverenga manyore uye kuisa mazita emamiriyoni gumi nematanhatu-izvo zvingave zvisingagoni kugadziriswa-Mambo nevashandi pamwe chete vakanyora zvinyorwa zvishomanana uye vakashandisa dzidzo yakatariswa kuti vaenzanise manzwiro ezvinyorwa zvose. Mushure mekunge vapedzisa kuongorora uku, vakakwanisa kugumisa kuti, zvimwe zvinoshamisa, mukana wekugadziriswa kusina kubvumirana kana zvaive zvakakosha zvehurumende kana kutsigira hurumende.
Mufananidzo 2: Chirongwa chechirongwa chechirongwa chinoshandiswa King, Pan, and Roberts (2013) kuenzanisa manzwiro emamiriyoni gumi nemaviri eChina. Chokutanga, mune danho risati rapera , vatsvakurudzi vakashandura zvinyorwa zvemashoko ezvehuwandu mune zvinyorwa-matrix matrix (ona Grimmer and Stewart (2013) kuti uwane mamwe mashoko). Chechipiri, vakapa-coded manzwiro emuenzaniso muduku wezvigadzirwa. Chechitatu, vakarovedza muenzaniso wekudzidza wakatarisirwa kuti vaenzanise manzwiro emakamuri. Chechina, vakashandisa muenzaniso wekudzidza wakatarwa kuti vaenzanise manzwiro ezvimwe zvivako. Ona King, Pan, and Roberts (2013) , appendikisi B pane tsanangudzo yakazara.
Pakupedzisira, Mambo uye vashandi vake vakaona kuti zvitatu chete zvezvikamu zvaiwanzoongororwa: zvinonyadzisira, kutsoropodzwa kwezvinodhaka, uye izvo zvaive nezvibvumirano zvekuunganidza pamwechete (kureva, mukana wekutungamirira kumararamiro makuru). Nokucherechedza nhamba yakawanda yemapuranga akadzingwa uye zvigaro zvisina kubviswa, Mambo uye vashandi vake vakakwanisa kudzidza kuti sei censors inoshanda chete nekuona uye kuverenga. Uyezve, achifananidzira hurukuro ichazoitika mubhuku rino, nzira yekudzidzira yakatariswa yavakashandisa-kuisa mazita kune zvimwe zviitiko uye zvino kuvaka chimiro chekudzidza zvemichina kuti chiratidze zvimwe zvacho-zvinoita kuti zvive zvakajairika mukutsvakurudza kwevanhu mumakore . Iwe uchaona mifananidzo yakafanana neyowanikwa 2.5 muzvitsauko 3 (Kubvunza mibvunzo) uye 5 (Kuumba kubatana kukuru); iyi ndeimwe yemashoko mashomanana anowanikwa muzvitsauko zvakawanda.
Iyi mienzaniso-maitiro ekushanda kwevatyairi vematekisi muNew York nemafambisirwo emagariro ehupfumi wehurumende yeChinese-kuratidza kuti nyore nyore kuverenga kwemashoko makuru makuru anogona, mune dzimwe mamiriro ezvinhu, zvinotungamirira kuongororo inofadza uye inokosha. Muzviitiko izvi zvose, zvisinei, vatsvakurudzi vaifanira kuunza mibvunzo inonakidza kune guru guru dhiyabhorosi; iyo data pachayo yakanga isingakwani.
