2.3.6 Asingarevi
Dunhu risingarevi nenyaya yakaipa kune kunze kwe-seni generalizations, asi rinogona kubatsira chaizvo mukati-senzaniso kuenzanisa.
Vamwe vezvemasayendisiti vanojairika kushanda nemataini anouya kubva kuenzanisiro inowanzoitika kubva kune vanhu vakatsanangurwa zvakanaka, sevanhu vose vakuru mune imwe nyika. Iko rudzi rwekudanwa kunonzi dhamiri yedhipatimendi nokuti muenzaniso "unomirira" huwandu hwevanhu. Vakawanda vanotsvakurudza vanokoshesa dhigiridzi yemari, uye kune vamwe, dhamiridzo dhiyabhorosi inowirirana nesayenzi yakasimba asi dare risingareviki inofanana nechestiness. Panyanyanyisa, vamwe vanokakavara vanoita sevanotenda kuti hapana chinogona kudzidziswa kubva pane zvisiri izvo. Kana ichokwadi, izvi zvingaita sokuti zvinopera zvakanyanya zvingadzidza kubva kune dhomashoko makuru nekuti vazhinji vavo havana hanya. Nenzira yakanaka, ava vanokakavadzana vanongodaro zvishoma. Pane zvimwe zvinangwa zvekutsvaga izvo zvisiri izvo zvinoratidza kuti hazvina kukodzera, asi pane zvimwe zvingashandiswa chaizvo.
Kuti tinzwisise kusiyana uku, ngationei sorosi yekudzidza: John Snow yedzidzo ye 1853-54 kororera kuputika muLondon. Panguva iyoyo, vanachiremba vakawanda vaifunga kuti kororera yakakonzerwa ne "mhepo yakaipa," asi Snow yaifunga kuti yaiva chirwere chinotapukira, zvichida chakapararira nemvura yekunwa-yakagadzirirwa mvura. Kuti uedze pfungwa iyi, Snow yakashandisa pane zvatinokwanisa iye zvino kudana kuedza kwepanyama. Akafananidza nekodera mitengo yemhuri inoshandiswa nemakambani maviri emvura akasiyana: Lambeth uye Southwark & Vauxhall. Makambani aya aishanda mhuri dzakafanana, asi dzakasiyana nenzira imwechete inokosha: muna 1849-makore mashomanana vasati vatanga chirwere-Lambeth yakasimudza nheyo yaro yekukwira kubva kumvura huru yakasununguka kuLondon, asi Southwark neVauxhall vakasiya pipe yavo yekuderera kubva pasi sewage discharge. Apo Snow yakafananidza nhamba yekufa kubva kune kolera munzvimbo dzakashandiswa nekambani mbiri, akawana kuti vatengi veSouthwark & Vauxhall-kambani yaive ichipa vatengi makota emvura-yakasvibiswa-yakawanda kanowedzera katatu yekufa nekodera. Ichi chigumisiro chinopa husimba hwakasimba hwezvesayenzi pamusoro peshoko raSvondo pamusoro pemhosva yekodera, kunyange zvazvo isingagari pamumiriri wemumiriri wevanhu muLondon.
Nhoroondo kubva kumakambani maviri aya, zvisinei, haazove akakodzera kupindura mubvunzo wakasiyana: chii chaive kuwanda kwekororera muLondon munguva yekumuka? Nokuda kwemubvunzo wechipiri uyu, unokosha zvakare, zvingave zviri nani kuva nomuenzaniso wemumiriri wevanhu vanobva kuLondon.
Sezvo basa reSlaw rinoratidzira, kune mamwe masayenzi emibvunzo iyo iyo isingaratidzirwe deta inogona kuva yakakosha uye kune dzimwe dzisina kukodzera. Imwe nzira isina kukodzera yekusiyanisa iyi mibvunzo miviri yemibvunzo ndeyokuti mimwe mimwe mibvunzo inenge iri mukati-muenzanisi yemuenzaniso uye vamwe ndeye kunze kwe-seni generalizations. Izvi zvakasiyana-siyana zvinogona kuenzaniswa nezvimwe zvidzidzo zvekare muhutachiona: British Doctors Study, iyo yakaita basa rinokosha pakuratidza kuti kusvuta kunokonzera kenza. Muchidzidzo ichi, Richard Doll naA. Bradford Hill vakatevera makumi maviri nemazana makumi maviri zvechiremba vanachiremba kwemakore anoverengeka uye vakaenzanisa kufa kwavo kwehutano zvichienderana nehuwandu hwavakasvuta apo chidzidzo chakatanga. Dhongi uye Gomo (1954) rakawana hukama hwakasimba hwekutsvaga-kupindura: vanhu vanonyanya kusvuta, zvinowanzoita kuti vafe nemukenza wemapapu. Zvechokwadi, zvingava zvisina kuchenjera kufungidzira kupararira kwemukenza wemapapu pakati pevanhu vose veBritish kubva paboka iri rechiremba vanhurume, asi mukati--kuenzanisa kuenzanisa kunopa uchapupu hwokuti kusvuta kunokonzera kenza yemapapu.
Iye zvino zvandakafananidza musiyano uri mukati-muenzanisi wemuenzaniso uye kunze kwe-seni generalizations, mavhavha maviri anogadzirirwa. Kutanga, kune maitiro ezvakangoita maererano nehuwandu hwehukama hunobata mukati momuenzaniso wevarume vechiBrithani vachatorawo mukati momuenzaniso wevakadzi, vanachiremba veBritish kana varume veBritish factory factory kana vakadzi vechiGermany factory factory kana mamwe mamwe mapoka. Iyi mibvunzo inofadza uye inokosha, asi yakasiyana nemibvunzo pamusoro pekukwanisa kwatingaita kubva kune imwe yeruzhinji kusvika kuvanhu. Cherechedza, somuenzaniso, kuti iwe unofungidzira kuti ukama huri pakati pokusvuta nekenza hwakange hunowanikwa mumarume madzimai eBritain hunogona kunge hwakafanana mune mamwe mapoka. Unyanzvi hwako hwekuita izvi huwandu hunobva kune chokwadi chokuti varume veBritain vanachiremba ndivo vanofanirwa kuenzanirana kubva kune vanhu vose; pane kudaro, inobva pakunzwisisa kwemichina inobatanidza kusvuta nekenza. Nokudaro, kubudisa kubva kune imwe sarudzo kune vanhu vanobva kune iyo inoswedzerwa inonyanya kuongororwa, asi mibvunzo pamusoro pekutakura kwemuenzaniso inowanika mune rimwe boka kune rimwe boka rinonyanya kusinganzwisisiki (Pearl and Bareinboim 2014; Pearl 2015) .
Pano, skeptic inogona kutaura kuti mararamiro akawanda emagariro evanhu angave asingakwanisi kutakura kune mamwe mapoka kupfuura ukama huri pakati pokusvuta nekenza. Uye ini ndinobvuma. Nzira yatinofanira kutarisira mitezo inotakurwa nayo ndeyekupedzisira mubvunzo wezesayenzi unofanirwa kusarudzwa maererano nenheyo uye uchapupu. Hazvifaniri kungofungidzirwa kuti zvirongwa zvichange zvichitakura, asiwo hazvingafanirwi kufungidzira kuti hazvizove kutakura. Iyi mibvunzo isinganzwisisiki pamusoro pekutakura ichave yakakuziva iwe kana iwe wakatevera nharo pamusoro (Sears 1986, [@henrich_most_2010] ) vanogona kudzidza pamusoro pehutsika hwevanhu nekudzidza vadzidzi vepasimari (Sears 1986, [@henrich_most_2010] ) . Pasinei nezvipikisano izvi, zvisinei, zvingava zvisina musoro kutaura kuti vatsvakurudzi havagoni kudzidza chinhu kubva pakudzidza vadzidzi vepasidduate.
Chipiri chevhavha ndeyekuti vatsvakurudzi vakawanda vane dare risingarevi havakwanisi sezvinoitwa Snow kana Doll uye Hill. Saka, kuenzanisira izvo zvinogona kuipa kana vatsvakurudzi vachiedza kuita kunze kwe-shanduro kubva kune imwe nyika isingaratidzi, ndinoda kukuudza pamusoro pekudzidza kwema 2009 sarudzo yeparamende yeGermany naAndranik Tumasjan uye vashandi (2010) . Nokuongorora maTweets anopfuura 100 000, vakaona kuti chikamu chema tweets achitaura nezvematongerwe enyika akafanana nehuwandu hwevhoti iyo bato rakagamuchirwa musarudzo dzeparamende (chirevo 2.3). Mune mamwe mazwi, zvakaratidzika kuti Twitter data, iyo yakanga isingabhadharwi, inogona kutora sarudzo yevanhu vezvemitambo, iyo inodhura nekuda kwekusimbisa kwavo pamumiririri we data.
Zvichipa zvaunenge watoziva kare pamusoro pe Twitter, unofanira kunge uchinge usina chokwadi nezvechigumisiro ichi. VaGermany pa Twitter muna 2009 vakanga vasiri svondo rinosarudzwa revhoti veGermany, uye vatsigiri vevamwe mapato vanogona kutora tweet pamusoro pezvematongerwo enyika kakawanda kupfuura vatsigiri vemamwe mapato. Nokudaro, zvinoratidzika sechishamisika kuti zvose zvingangodaro zvingangodaro zvaungafungidzira zvingazobvisa zvimwe kuitira kuti deta iyi ive yakajeka zvakakwana vevhoti veGermany. Zvechokwadi, zvinoguma muna Tumasjan et al. (2010) yakava yakanyanya kunaka kuti ive yechokwadi. Pepanhau rekutevera na Andreas Jungherr, Pascal Jürgens, naHarald Schoen (2012) vakaratidza kuti kuongorora kwepakutanga kwakange kusina bato rezvematongerwe enyika rakange rawana zvakanyanya kutaurwa pamusoro pe Twitter: Pirate Party, bato duku rinorwisana nemitemo yehurumende yeInternet. Apo Pirate Party yakabatanidzwa mukutsvaga, Twitter inotaura inova inotyisa inotyisa yemigumisiro yemusarudzo (Mufananidzo 2.3). Sezvinoratidzwa nemuenzaniso uyu, kushandiswa kwemashoko makuru ekutora maitiro ekuita kunze kwe-seni generalizations kunogona kuipa zvikuru. Uyewo, iwe unofanira kuona kuti chokwadi kuti pane ma tweets zana nemakumi mashanu akanga asinganzwisisiki: zvakawanda zvisingatauri dheinhau zvisati zvisiri mumiririri, musoro wandakadzokera kuchitsauko 3 kana ini ndichikurukura tsvakurudzo.
Mufananidzo 2.3: Zvinotaurwa ne Twitter zvinoratidzika kufanotaura nezvemigumisiro yemasarudzo eGermany muna 2009 (Tumasjan et al. 2010) , asi izvi hazvibatsiri fesheni nemashoko akawanda: Pirate Party (Jungherr, Jürgens, and Schoen 2012) . Ona Tumasjan et al. (2012) nekuda kwekukakavadzana mukuda kubvisa Pirate Party. Yakagadzirirwa kubva kuna Tumasjan et al. (2010) , tafura 4 uye Jungherr, Jürgens, and Schoen (2012) , tafura 2.
Kuti apedzisire, mazhinji makuru makuru emitemo haasi mumiririri wezvidzidzo kubva kune vamwe vakatsanangurwa zvakanaka. Kune mibvunzo inoda kuti zviwanikwa zvive nezvibereko kubva kumuenzaniso kusvika kune vanhu kubva kwairi yakatorwa, iyi inetso yakaoma. Asi kune mibvunzo pamusoro pekunze-muenzanisi yekuenzanisa, deta isingaratidziki inogona kuva yakasimba, chero yakareba apo vatsvakurudzi vanonyatsojeka pamusoro pezviratidzo zvemuenzaniso wavo uye kutsigira zvikwereti pamusoro pekutakura kune uchapupu hwepfungwa kana humwe. Kutaura zvazviri, tariro yangu ndeyekuti makuru makuru ezvinyorwa achaita kuti vatsvakurudzi vaite zvakawanda mukati-muenzanisi wezvienzanidzo mumapoka akawanda asingaverengeki, uye kufunga kwangu ndekokuti kuongororwa kubva kumapoka akasiyana-siyana kuchaita zvakawanda kuendesa mberi tsvakurudzo dzevanhu kunze kwekufungidzira kumwe chete kubva kune imwe nguva inowanzoitika samples.
