3.3.1 Umiririri
Kumiririrwa iri kuita inferences kubva dzenyu vakabvunzwa wenyu chipfuro vemo.
Kuti tinyatsonzwisisa mhando yezvikanganiso zvinogona kuitika kana zvichibva kune vapindura kuvanhu vazhinji, ngatitarirei tsvina yeLittary Digest yakaedza kufanotaura mugumisiro wekusarudzwa kwehurumende ye1936 yehurumende. Kunyangwe zvaitika makore anopfuura 75 apfuura, kudemba uku kuchiri nechidzidzo chinokosha kudzidzisa vanotsvakurudza nhasi.
Literary Digest yaiva yakakurumbira yemagazini yakawanda-inofarira, uye kutanga muna 1920 vakatanga kushandira mapurisa ekufananidza zviitiko zvekusarudzwa kwehurumende. Kuti vaite izvi zviporofita, vaizotumira vhoti kuvanhu vazhinji uye vobva vangoita mapurisa akadzorerwa; Literary Digest yakashuma kuti vheti dzavakagamuchira hadzina "kuyerwa, kuchinjwa, kana kududzirwa." Iyi nzira yakagara yagara ichitaura nezvevakakunda sarudzo muna 1920, 1924, 1928 uye muna 1932. Muna 1936, pakati peGreat Depression, Literary Digest yakatumira mavhoti kune mamiriyoni gumi nevanhu, avo mazita avo akauya kazhinji kubva kunhare dzefoni uye zvinyorwa zvekuregera motokari. Heino nzira iyo vakatsanangura nzira yavo:
"MUTSVENE unoshandiswa-unomhanya-mhanya unofamba nekukwira nokukurumidza kwemakore makumi matatu 'ruzivo rwokuderedza guesswork kusvika kune chokwadi ... Vhiki ino 500 mapuranga akarova kupfuura chikamu chemamiriyoni anotengesa pazuva. Zuva rimwe nerimwe, muimba huru kumusoro kwepamusoro-motokari yeAineth Avenue, muNew York, vashandi mazana 400 vanoisa zvidhi mamiriyoni ezvinyorwa-zvakakwana kuti vadzivirire maguta mana makumi mana-kupinda mune zvinyorwa. Nguva yoga yoga, muZVIMI pachake Post Office Substation, mitatu mitambo yekuchera mitambo yakaiswa chisimbiso uye yakadzika mabhitshi machena; nyanzvi yepamusoro yevashandi vakazvipinza mailsacks ane simba; Ngarava DIGEST ngoro dzakavatsanangurira kuti vataure mail-zvitima. . . Vhiki inotevera, mhinduro dzekutanga kubva pamamiriyoni gumi aya dzichatanga marwadzo anouya emarota, akaratidzirwa, akatendwa, mairi mashanu akayambuka uye akabatanidzwa. Apo nharaunda yekupedzisira yakaderedzwa uye yakaongororwa, kana ruzivo rwakapfuura rwuri mutsara, nyika ichaziva mukati memutsara we1% iyo chaiyo yakasarudzwa mamiriyoni makumi mana [vavhota]. "(August 22, 1936)
Literary Digest's fetishisation yekukura yakakurumidza kuonekwa kune chero "guru data" muongorori nhasi. Pakati pemamiriyoni gumi emabhodhi akaparadzirwa, zvinoshamisa zvemamiriyoni maviri zvakadzorerwa-izvo zvinenge zvuru zvakapetwa ka1 000 pane zvematongerwo enyika ezvematongerwo enyika. Kubva kune mamiriyoni 2,4 anopindura, mutongo uyu wakanga wakajeka: Alf Landon aizokunda Franklin Roosevelt. Asi, chaizvoizvo, Roosevelt akakunda Landon mune imwe nyika. Literary Digest yaigona sei kukanganisa nematare akawanda? Nzwisiso yedu yemazuva ano yeshanduro inoita kuti zvikanganiso zveLittary Digest zvive pachena uye zvinotibatsira kuti tirege kuita zvikanganiso zvakafanana munguva yemberi.
Kufungisisa zvakajeka nezvekuenzanisa kunoda kuti titarise mapoka mana evanhu (Mufananidzo 3.2). Boka rokutanga ndiro chinangwa chevanhu ; iyi iboka iro muongorori anotsanangura sevanhu vanofarira. Muzvinyorwa zveThe Literary Digest , vanhu vakagadziriswa vaiva vhoti mumusarudzo yekutanga yegore ra1936.
Mushure mokufunga nezvehuwandu hwevanhu, mumwe mutsvakurudzi anoda kutanga runyora rwevanhu vanogona kushandiswa shanduro. Urongwa urwu runonzi sampling frame uye vanhu varipo vanonzi chimiro chevanhu . Zvakanaka, chinangwa chevanhu uye chimiro chevanhu chichange chakafanana, asi muchiito izvi hazviwanzo. Somuenzaniso, munyaya yeLittary Digest , chimiro chevanhu vaiva vanhu vane mamiriyoni gumi avo mazita avo akauya zvakanyanya kubva kumatarefoni efoni nekunyora mabhuku. Kusiyanisa pakati pevanhu vanofungidzirwa uye chimiro chevanhu vanozivikanwa sekukanganisa kupera . Coverage error hazviiti, pacharo, inopokana nezvinetso. Zvisinei, zvinogona kutungamirira mukushamwaridzana kwevanhu kana vanhu vari muhuwandu hwevanhu vari kurongeka zvakasiyana kubva kuvanhu vari kutaridzirwa vasiri vanhu vasiri muhuwandu hwevanhu. Izvi ndizvo, chaizvoizvo, chaizvoizvo zvakaitika mumabhuku eListary Digest . Vanhu vari mumapuranga avo vakawanda vave vachida kutsigira Alf Landon, muchidimbu nekuti vakange vakapfuma (yeuka kuti zvose matefoni nemotokari zvakanga zvitsva uye zvinodhura muna 1936). Saka, muLitarian Digest sarudzo, kukanganisa kuputika kwakatungamirira mukushamwaridzana kwehupfumi.
Mufananidzo 3.2: Mapoka ekuremekedza.
Mushure mekujekesa chimiro chevanhu , nhanho inotevera ndeyekuti muongorori asarudze shamba yevanhu ; ava ndivo vanhu avo muongorori achaedza kubvunzurudza. Kana samuenzaniso ine maitiro akasiyana nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwevanhu, saka sampuli inogona kuisa sampling kukanganisa . Munyaya yeThe Literary Digest fiasco, zvakadaro, imomo pakanga pasina sampuli-magazini iyo inosangana nemumwe munhu ari muhuwandu hwevanhu-uye naizvozvo pakanga pasina sampuli yekukanganisa. Vakawanda vanotsvakurudza vanowanzotarisa pamusoro pechinyorwa chekukanganisa-iyi ndiyo inongova yega yekanganiso yakatorwa nemuganhu wekanganiso yakataurwa muongororo-asi Literary Digest fiasco inotiyeuchidza kuti tinoda kuongorora zvose zvinyorwa zvekanganisa, zvose zvisinganzwisisiki uye zvakarongeka.
Pakupedzisira, mushure mekusarudza shanduko yevanhu, mutsvakurudzi anoedza kubvunzurudza nhengo dzaro dzose. Vanhu vaya vari vakabudirira vakabvunzurudzwa vanonzi vacho. Zvinotarisirwa, muenzaniso wevanhu uye avo vakapindura vaizofanana zvakafanana, asi mukuita izvi hapana chakanaka. Izvi zvinoreva kuti vanhu vakasarudzwa muzaniso dzimwe nguva havaiti. Kana vanhu vanopindura vakasiyana nevaya vasingagamuchiri, saka zvinogona kuva zvisina mhosva . Nonresponse bias yakanga iri dambudziko guru rechipiri neChirungu cheGwaro reListary Digest . Vane 24% chete vevanhu vakagamuchira vhoti vakapindura, uye zvakazoitika kuti vanhu vakatsigira Landon vainyanya kupindura.
Kunze kwekuti uve muenzaniso wekutaura pfungwa dzekumiririra, sarudzo yeLittary Digest inowanzonyorerwa mifananidzo, inonyevera vatsvakurudzi nezvekukuvadza kwekuenzanisa shanduro. Zvinosuruvarisa, ndinofunga kuti chidzidzo icho vanhu vazhinji vanotora kubva munyaya iyi chakashata. Nzira yakakurumbira yenyaya yacho ndeyokuti vatsvakurudzi havagoni kudzidza chinhu kubva kune zvisingabviri zvidzidzo (kureva, samples pasina mitemo yakasimba-based based inosarudza vatori vechikamu). Asi, sezvandichazviratidza gare gare muchitsauko chino, hazvisizvo chaizvo. Pane kudaro, ndinofunga kuti kune tsika mbiri kune iyi nyaya; tsika dzakanaka nhasi sezvazvakanga zvakaita muna 1936. Kutanga, nhamba yakawandisa yematare akaunganidzwa haazovimbisi kuongororwa kwakanaka. Muzhinji, kuva nenhamba yakawanda yevakabvunzwa kunoderedza kusiyana kwezviyero, asi hazvirevi kuderedza kusarura. Nehuwandu hwemashoko, vatsvakurudzi dzimwe nguva vanogona kuverenga zvakananga zvechinhu chakaipa; vanogona kunge vasina kunyatsokwana (McFarland and McFarland 2015) . Chidzidzo chechipiri chinokosha kubva kuListary Digest fiasco ndechokuti vatsvakurudzi vanofanira kuverenga nezvekuti muenzaniso wavo waiunganidzwa sei pakugadzirisa. Mune mamwe mazwi, nokuti shanduro yekuita muListary Digest yekuongorora yakarongeka kune vamwe vakabvunzwa, vatsvakurudzi vaida kushandisa nzira yakaenzana yekufungidzira yairema vamwe vakapindura kupfuura vamwe. Gare gare muchitsauko chino, ini ndichakuratidza imwe nzira yakakosha yekuita-shure-stratification-iyo inogona kuita kuti iwe uite zvinganonoka kubva kune zvisingatauriki.
