3.6.2 Amplified kubvunza
Amplified achikumbira kushandisa chirevo chekufananidzira kuti ayananise nhamba yekuongorora kubva kuvanhu vashomanana vane ruzivo rwakakura kubva kune vanhu vakawanda.
Nzira yakasiyana yekubatanidza kuongororwa uye makuru makuru emitemo ndiyo nzira yandichashevedza kukumbira . Pakukurudzira kubvunza, mumwe muongorori anoshandisa muenzaniso wekufananidzira kusonganisa shoma shoma rekuongorora nedhiyabhorosi yakabva kune imwe nzvimbo kuitira kuti kuve nokuenzanisa kwechiyero kana granularity iyo isingagoni kuitika pamwe nedzimwe nzvimbo yezvinyorwa. Chimwe chiitiko chinokosha chechikumbiro chinokumbira chinobva mubasa raJoshua Blumenstock, uyo aida kuunganidza dambudziko rinogona kubatsira kutungamirira kubudirira munyika dzine urombo. Munguva yakapfuura, vatsvakurudzi vaiunganidza rudzi urwu rwemashoko kazhinji vaifanira kutora imwe yenzira mbiri: svondo tsvakurudzo kana zvikwereti. Mienzaniso yekuongororwa, apo vatsvakurudzi vanobvunzurudza nhamba shomanana yevanhu, vanogona kugadziriswa, panguva yakakodzera, uye zvishoma. Zvisinei, idzi tsvakurudzo, nokuti dzakabva pane samuenzaniso, dzinowanzowanikwa mukugadzirisa kwavo. Nekuenzanisa kwekuenzanisa, zvinowanzooma kuti uite kuongororwa maererano nenzvimbo dzakasiyana dzenharaunda kana kuti mamwe mapoka evanhu. Kuchenesa, kune rumwe rutivi, kuedza kubvunzurudza munhu wese, uye saka vanogona kushandiswa kuenzanisa kuenzanisa kwemadiki madunhu kana mazita evanhu. Asi kuongorora kunowanzokodhura, kwakanyanya kuderera (zvinongosanganisira nhamba shomanana yemibvunzo), uye kwete panguva yakakodzera (inowanikwa pane imwe nguva yakatarwa, yakadai semakore gumi) (Kish 1979) . Panzvimbo pokuramba uine sampuro yekuongorora kana kuvhara, fungidzira kana vatsvakurudzi vangaisa pamwe chete zvakanakisisa zvese. Fungidzira kana vatsvakurudzi vangabvunza mibvunzo yose kumunhu wese zuva rega rega. Zviri pachena, izvi zvinowanzoitika, nguva dzose-pakuongororwa rudzi rwemagariro evanhu. Asi zvinoratidzika kuti tinogona kutanga kutarisa izvi nekubatanidza mibvunzo yekuongorora kubva kuzana shomanana revanhu vane majekiti kubva kune vanhu vakawanda.
Ongororo ye Blumenstock yakatanga apo yaiparadzanisa nemukuru wefoni muRwanda, uye kambani yakapa mabhuku ekutengeserana mabhuku kubva kuvanhu vanenge mamiriyoni 1.5 kubva muna 2005 ne2009. Aya marekodhi aiva nehuwandu pamusoro pekufonera uye kutumira mameseji, sekutanga nguva, nguva , uye nharaunda yenharaunda yemunhu akadanidzira uye anogamuchira. Ndisati ndataura pamusoro pehuwandu hwemashoko, zvakakosha kureva kuti iyi danho rekutanga rinogona kuva rimwe rematambudziko kune vatsvakurudzi vazhinji. Sezvandakatsanangura muchitsauko 2, mazita makuru makuru makuru haasviki kune vatsvakurudzi. Runhare meta-deta, kunyanya, inonyanya kusvikeki nokuti inonyanya kusakwanisa kuratidza uye iyo inenge iine zvinyorwa zvinoitwa nevatori vechikamu (Mayer, Mutchler, and Mitchell 2016; Landau 2016) . Muchiitiko ichi chaiye, vatsvakurudzi vakanga vakangwarira kuchengetedza data uye basa ravo raitarisirwa nevechitatu (kureva, IRB yavo). Ini ndichadzoka kune idzi nhau dzetsika nenzira yakajeka muchitsauko 6.
Blumenstock aifarira mukuyera upfumi nekugara zvakanaka. Asi zviito izvi hazvisi zvakananga mumabhuku ekufona. Mune mamwe mazwi, idzi zvinyorwa zvekushevedza hazvina kukwana kwekutsvakurudza uku-chinhu chinowanikwa chemashoko makuru ezvinyorwa zvakakurukurwa zvakadzama muchitsauko 2. Zvisinei, zvinoratidzika sokuti zvinyorwa zvese zvingangodaro zvine ruzivo rusingagoni kupa ruzivo nezvehupfumi uye hupenyu hwakanaka. Tichifunga izvi, Blumenstock akabvunza kana zvaive zvichikwanisa kudzidzisa mhando yekudzidza mitambo kufanofanera kuti mumwe munhu angapindura sei kuongororwa maererano nemabhuku avo. Kana izvi zvaikwanisika, Blumenstock angashandisa muenzaniso uyu kufanotaura kuongorora kwekupindura kwevatengi vemamiriyoni 1,5.
Kuti vavake uye vadzidzise muenzaniso iwoyo, Blumenstock nevabatsiri vekutsvakurudza kubva kuKigali Institute of Science neTechnology inonzi shanduro isina kuitika yevanenge vatengi vatengi. Vatsvakurudzi vakatsanangura zvinangwa zvepurojekiti kune avo vatori vechikamu, vakakumbira kubvumirana kwavo kubatanidza mhinduro dzeongororo kumabhuku ekufonera, uye vakavakumbira mibvunzo yepamusoro kuti vaone upfumi hwavo uye hupenyu, hwakadai se "Iwe une redhiyo? "uye" Iwe unayo bhasikoro here? "(ona mufananidzo 3.14 pane runyararo rwemashoko). Vose vatora muongororo vakabhadhara mari.
Zvadaro, Blumenstock akashandisa nhanho mbiri-mbiri inowanikwa mumichina yekudzidza: unhu hunoshandiswa hunotevedzwa nekudzidza kwakatariswa. Kutanga, mune chimwe chimiro chokugadzirira , kune wese akabvunzurudzwa, Blumenstock akashandura zvinyorwa zvekudanidzira muhutano hwemunhu wese; dhizinesi masayendisiti angangodaro anonzi "maitiro" uye masayendisiti masayendisiti aizodanidza kuti "zvinoshandiswa." Somuenzaniso, kumunhu mumwe nomumwe, Blumenstock akaverenga nhamba yemazuva ese nebasa, nhamba yevanhu vakasiyana nevamwe vanhu vave vachikurukurirana, mari yakawanda inoshandiswa pamhepo, uye nezvimwe zvakadaro. Zvinonzwisisika, zvakanaka chinonzi engineering inoda ruzivo rwekutsvakurudza. Semuenzaniso, kana zvakakosha kusiyanisa pakati pekufambisa kune dzimwe nyika uye kune dzimwe nyika (tinogona kutarisira vanhu vanodana pasi rose kuti vave vapfumi), zvino izvi zvinofanira kuitika pane chimwe chimiro chekugadzira. Mumwe mutsvakurudzi ane ruzivo rushoma rweRwanda haagoni kuisa chinhu ichi, uye ipapo kufanirwa kwekuita kwemuenzaniso kunotambura.
Zvadaro, mudanho rekudzidzira rakarongedzwa , Blumenstock akaumba mufananidzo kuti afanotaura kuparidzirwa kweongororo kune munhu mumwe nomumwe zvichienderana nezvinoitwa. Muchiitiko ichi, Blumenstock akashandisa kugadziriswa kwemagetsi, asi aigona kunge akashandisa zvimwe zvakasiyana-siyana zvekuverenga kana magetsi ekudzidza.
Saka yakashanda zvakadini? Blumenstock akakwanisa kufanotaura mhinduro dzemibvunzo yekuongorora se "Iwe unayo redhiyo here" uye "Iwe une bhasikoro here?" Uchishandisa zvinhu zvakabva pane zvinyorwa zvese? Kuti aongorore kushanda kwekufananidzira kwake, Blumenstock akashandisa kugadziriswa , nzira inowanzoshandiswa mukushambadzira sayenzi asi inowanzosarudzwa mune zvemagariro evanhu. Chinangwa chekupupurika ndekupa kuongorora kwakanaka kwekufananidzira kwekufananidzira kwekuita nekuidzidzira uye kuchiidza pane zvakasiyana-siyana zve data. Kunyanya, Blumenstock akaparadzanisa deta rake mumataundi gumi evanhu vatatu. Zvadaro, akashandisa mapfumbamwe ezvinyorwa kuti adzidzise muenzaniso wake, uye kushandiswa kwekufananidzira kwemuenzaniso wakadzidziswa kwakaongororwa pane zvakasara chunk. Akadzokorora iyi nzira 10-nguva imwe neimwe chunk yedheta kuwana imwe shanduro sekugadzirisa deta-uye kuenzanisa migumisiro.
Kururama kwezvakafanotaurwa kwaive kwakakwirira kune zvimwe zviito (Mufananidzo 3.14); somuenzaniso, Blumenstock aigona kufanotaura ne 97.6% yakarurama kana mumwe munhu ane radiyo. Izvi zvingaita sokuti zvinonakidza, asi nguva dzose zvakakosha kuenzanisa nzira yakaoma yekufanotaura pamusoro pezvimwe zviri nyore. Muchiitiko ichi, imwe nzira yakajeka ndeyekufanotaura kuti munhu wese achapa mhinduro yakajairika. Somuenzaniso, 97,3% yevanhu vakapindura vakataura kuti vaine redhiyo kuitira kuti kana Blumenstock akafanotaura kuti munhu wose aizoti aine rediyo aizove akanyatsoona 97.3%, izvo zvinoshamisa zvakafanana nekushanda kwematambudziko ake (97.6% yakarurama) . Mune mamwe mazwi, zvose zvakashata deta uye kuenzanisira zvakawedzera kukarurama kwekufanotaura kubva ku 97.3% kusvika ku 97.6%. Zvisinei, kune mamwe mimwe mibvunzo, yakadai sekuti "Iwe une bhasikoro here?", Huwandu hwezvakaitika hunobudirira kubva 54.4% kusvika 67.6%. Kunyanya kakawanda, chimiro 3.15 chinoratidza kuti pane zvimwe zviitiko Blumenstock hazvina kubudirira zvakanyanya kupfuura kungoita chirevo chekutanga chekutanga, asi kune zvimwe zviito pakanga paine humwe huri nani. Tichitarisa pamigumisiro iyi, zvisinei, iwe ungasafunga kuti nzira iyi inonyanya kuvimbisa.
Mufananidzo 3.14: Kutaura kwakarurama kwehuwandu hwemhando yakadzidziswa nematarekodhi ekutumira. Yakagadzirwa kubva Blumenstock (2014) , tafura 2.
Mufananidzo 3.15: Kufananidza nekururamisa kwekufungidzira kwezvenhamba yemhando yakarovedzwa nefoni dzinoshandiswa kune zvinyorwa zvisinganzwisisiki. Pfungwa dzakanyorohwa kuti dzisaita. Yakagadzirwa kubva Blumenstock (2014) , tafura 2.
Zvisinei, gore rimwe chete gare gare, Blumenstock nevamwe vaviri-vaGabriel Cadamuro naRobert On-vakabudisa pepa reScience nemigumisiro yakanaka kwazvo (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Paiva nezvikonzero zviviri zvekugadzirisa izvi: (1) vakashandisa nzira dzakanakisisa (kureva, nzira itsva yekugadzira unyanzvi uye imwe nzira yakanakisisa yekufanotaura mhinduro kubva kune zvimwe zvinhu) uye (2) pane kuedza kupa mhinduro kune mumwe munhu mibvunzo yekuongorora (semuenzaniso, "Iwe unayo redhiyo here?"), vakaedza kupa boka rehuwandu hwehupfumi. Izvi zvigadziridzo zvekugadzira zvaireva kuti vanogona kuita basa rinonzwisisika rekushandisa zvinyorwa zvemafoni kuti vatarise upfumi hwevanhu vari muenzaniso yavo.
Kufanotaurira upfumi hwevanhu mune muenzaniso, zvisinei, yakanga isiri chinangwa chikuru chekutsvakurudza. Yeuka kuti chinangwa chekupedzisira ndechekubatanidza zvimwe zvezvinhu zvakanakisisa zveongororo yekuenzanisira uye zvinyorwa kuti zvive nekuenzanisa kwakarurama, kwakagadziriswa kwehurombo munyika dziri kusimukira. Kuti vaongorore kukwanisa kwavo kuzadzisa chinangwa ichi, Blumenstock nevamwe vashandi vakashandisa mufananidzo wavo uye data yavo kufanotaura upfumi hwevanhu vose vane mamiriyoni 1,5 mumatare ekufona. Uye vakashandisa nhoroondo ye geospatial yakaiswa mumakoropota ekudanidzira (yeuka kuti data yaisanganisira nzvimbo yemunzvimbo yakatarisana neshongwe yefoni imwe neimwe) kuenzanisa nzvimbo yakatarwa yekugara yemunhu mumwe nomumwe (Mufananidzo 3.17). Kuisa izvi zviyero zviviri pamwe chete, Blumenstock uye vashandi vakaburitsa kuenzanisa kwekugoverwa kwenzvimbo yekubhadhara hupfumi pane zvakanyanyisa zvakanyanyisa. Semuenzaniso, vanogona kuenzana nehuwandu hweupfumi mune imwe neimwe yeRwanda 2 148 masero (duku duku rekuchengetedza iri munyika).
Izvi zvakaenzaniswa zvakadini zvakaenzana nehutano hwehurombo munzvimbo idzi? Ndisati ndapindura mubvunzo iwoyo, ndinoda kusimbisa chokwadi chokuti kune zvikonzero zvakawanda zvekusava nechokwadi. Semuenzaniso, kukwanisa kuve nekufanotaura kumunhu mumwe nomumwe kwakanga kuri mhere-mhere (Mufananidzo 3.17). Uye, zvichida zvakakosha, vanhu vane foni vanogona kunge vakasiyana zvakasiyana nevanhu vasina mafoni. Nokudaro, Blumenstock uye vashandi vangave vanotambura kubva pamhando dzezvikanganiso zvekuvharidzira izvo zvakarambidza kuongorora 1936 Literary Digest yandakatsanangura kare.
Kuti uwane pfungwa yehutano hwehuwandu hwavo, Blumenstock nevamwe vashandi vaida kuenzanisa nezvimwewo. Nenzira yakanaka, yakapoteredza nguva yakafanana nekudzidza kwavo, rimwe boka revatsvakurudzi rakanga richiita shanduko yezvemagariro evanhu muRwanda. Iyi imwe tsvakurudzo-iyo yaiva chikamu chepurogiramu yakakurumbira yeDemographic uye Health Survey chirongwa-chaive nebhajheji yakawanda uye yakashandiswa zvakanakisisa, tsika dzetsika. Nokudaro, kuongororwa kubva kuDemographic uye Health Survey kunogona kuonekwa sekutaridzika kwegoridhe-yakaenzana. Apo maonero maviri aya akaenzaniswa, aive akafanana zvakafanana (chirevo 3.17). Mune mamwe mazwi, nekubatanidza shoma shotsananguro dhamba nemakoropota ekufonera, Blumenstock uye vashandi vakakwanisa kuenzanisa maenzanisi akafanana neaya anobva kune zvendarama-maitiro akaenzana.
Munhu anokakavara angaona izvi zvinogumbura. Mushure mezvose, imwe nzira yekuvatarisa ndeyokutaura kuti kuburikidza nekushandisa makuru makuru uye kudzidzira kwemichina, Blumenstock nevamwe vashandi vakakwanisa kuenzanisa zviyero zvinogona kuitwa zvakavimbika kuburikidza nezviripo zviripo. Asi handifungi kuti iyo ndiyo nzira yakarurama yekufunga pamusoro pekudzidza iyi nekuda kwezvikonzero zviviri. Chokutanga, kuenzanisira kubva kuBlumenstock nevamwe vashandi vaive kanenge ka10 nekukurumidza uye makumi mashanu inodhura (kana mari inotaridzwa maererano nemafungiro akasiyana). Sezvandakakakavadzana mberi kwechitsauko chino, vatsvakurudzi vanorega kukanganisa kunowanikwa panjodzi yavo. Munyaya iyi, somuenzaniso, kuderera kunoshamisa mumari zvinoreva kuti panzvimbo yekushandurwa kwemakore mashomanana-sezvinoenderana neDemographic uye Health Surveys-rudzi urwu rwekuongorora runogona kuitwa mwedzi mumwe nomumwe, izvo zvinogona kupa zvipo zvakawanda kune vatsvakurudzi nepamutemo makenzi. Chikonzero chechipiri chekusatora pfungwa yekutenda ndeyekuti chidzidzo ichi chinopa ruzivo rwekutanga runogona kuenderana nemhando dzakasiyana-siyana dzekutsvakurudza. Iyi kamukira ine zvigadziro zviviri chete uye matanho maviri. Zvinoshandiswa ndezvi (1) nheyo huru yedhiyabhorosi iyo yakazara asi yakaonda (kureva, ine vanhu vazhinji asi kwete iyo ruzivo rwaunoda pamusoro pemunhu mumwe nomumwe) uye (2) kuongororwa kunopfupika asi kwakaoma (kureva, kunongova chete vanhu vashoma, asi ine ruzivo rwaunoda nezvevanhu ivavo). Izvi zvinoshandiswa zvino zvinobatanidzwa mumatanho maviri. Kutanga, kune vanhu vari mumabhuku ose ezvinyorwa, edza mhando yekudzidza yemuenzaniso inoshandisa iyo huru dhiyabhorosi inofanirwa kufanotaura mhinduro dzemhinduro. Zvadaro, shandisai muenzaniso iwoyo kuti upe mhinduro dzemhinduro dzemhinduro dzevanhu vose mumugwagwa mukuru we data. Nokudaro, kana pane mumwe mubvunzo waunoda kukumbira vanhu vazhinji, tsvaga hurukuro yezvinyorwa kubva kuvanhu ivavo vangave vashandiswa kufanotaura mhinduro yavo, kunyange kana iwe usingafungi nezvemashoko makuru . Iko ndiko kuti, Blumenstock nevamwe vaaishanda vakanga vasina hanya nehutano pamusoro pefoni dzedare; ivo vaingotarisa pamusoro pezvinyorwa zvinyorwa nokuti vaigona kushandiswa kufanotaura mhinduro dzekuongorora dzavaitarisira. Ichi chimiro-chido chaicho chisingaenzaniswi mune guru guru-inopa kukurudzira kubvunza zvakasiyana kubva mubasa rakabvunzwa, izvo zvandakatsanangura kare.
Mufananidzo 3.16: Chirongwa chekudzidza Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Dana zvinyorwa kubva kumakambani efoni zvakashandurwa kuva matrix nemuganhu mumwechete kumunhu mumwe nomumwe nekorodhe imwe yezvikamu zvega (kureva, kushanduka). Zvadaro, vatsvakurudzi vakagadzira muenzaniso wekudzidza wakatariswa kuti vafanotaurire mhinduro dzeongororo kubva kumunhu-ne-chiitiko chechimiro. Zvadaro, muenzaniso wekudzidza wakatariswa wakashandiswa kupikisa mhinduro dzeongororo yevatengi vemamiriyoni 1,5. Uyewo, vatsvakurudzi vanofungidzira kuti nzvimbo inogara yekugara kune vatengi vemamiriyoni 1,5 kubva munzvimbo dzavanofonera. Apo izvi zviviri zvinofungidzira-pfuma inofungidzirwa uye nzvimbo inofungidzirwa yekugara-yakabatanidzwa, zvigumisiro zvakafanana nekufungidzirwa kubva kuDemographic uye Health Survey, imwe yegoridhe-yakaenzana yeruzivo rwenyanzvi (Mufananidzo 3.17).
Mufananidzo 3.17: Zviwanikwa kubva Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Pamusana wega, vatsvakurudzi vakakwanisa kuita basa rinonzwisisika pakufananidzira hupfumi hwomumwe munhu kubva kune zvinyorwa zvadzo. Kuongororwa kwehupfumi hwemuganhu hwemaruwa emaruwa makumi matatu eRwanda-ayo aive akaenzana nehuwandu hwehuwandu hwehupfumi nenzvimbo yekugara-yakafanana nemigumisiro inobva kuDemographic uye Health Survey, imwe yegoridhe-yakaenzana yekuongorora kwetsika. Yakagadzirwa kubva Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) , nhamba 1a na3c.
Pakugumisa, Blumenstock yakakumbirwa kukumbira nzira yakabatanidza kuongororwa kwedhesi nemubhadharo mukuru wezvinyorwa kuti kuve nokuenzanisa zvakaenzana neaya kubva kuongororo yegoridhe-yakawanda. Uyu muenzaniso unojekesawo zvimwe zvekutengeserana pakati pekuwedzera kukumbira nekutsvaga nzira dzekuongorora zvetsika. Izvo zvakasimbiswa zvinokumbira kuenzanisira zvaive zvakanyanya panguva, zvakanyanya kutengesa, uye yakawanda granular. Asi, kune rumwe rutivi, hakuchina imwe nheyo yakasimba yezvidzidzo zvechirudzi ichi chekusimudzirwa kubvunza. Uyu muenzaniso mumwe chete hauratidzi kana nzira iyi ichishanda uye iyo isingazoiti, uye vatsvakurudzi vachishandisa nzira iyi vanofanira kunyanya kunetseka pamusoro pezvinobvira zvinokonzerwa nevaya vanobatanidzwa-uye vasina kubatanidzwa-mune guru guru rekushandisa. Uyezve, iyo yakabvunzwa kukumbira nzira haisati iine nzira dzakanaka dzekufananidza kusava nechokwadi pamusoro pemiganhu yayo. Nemafaro, kukurudzirwa kukumbira kunobatanidza zvakadzama kune zvikamu zvitatu zvakakura pane zvinyorwa-zvishoma-kuongororwa kwenzvimbo (Rao and Molina 2015) , kusarudzwa (Rubin 2004) , uye muenzaniso-based post-stratification (iyo inobatana zvikuru naVaP., iyo nzira yandakatsanangura kare muchitsauko) (Little 1993) . Nemhaka yekubatana uku kwakadzika, ndinotarisira kuti dzakawanda zvehutano hwemagariro ekukumbira dzichakurumidza kuvandudzwa.
Pakupedzisira, kuenzanisa maBillumstock ekutanga uye wechipiri kuedza zvakare kunoratidzira chidzidzo chinokosha pamusoro pekutsvaga kwehuwandu hwemakore-evanhu: kutanga hakusi kuguma. Iko, nguva zhinji, nzira yekutanga haisi iyo yakanakisisa, asi kana vatsvakurudzi vachiri kushanda, zvinhu zvinogona kuva nani. Zvimwe zvinowanzoitika, kana uchitarisa nzira itsva dzekutsvakurudza kwevanhu munharaunda yemadhijita, zvakakosha kuita zviyero zviviri zvakasiyana: (1) Izvi zvinoshanda sei zvino? uye (2) Izvi zvinoshanda zvakadini mune ramangwana sezvo demo renyika inoshanduka uye sekuti vatsvakurudzi vanonyanya kutarira dambudziko racho? Kunyange zvazvo vatsvakurudzi vakadzidziswa kuita rudzi rwekutanga rwekuongorora, yechipiri inowanzokosha.
