4.2 Kodi zatsopano?
Osapanganika zatsopano ndi zinayi zofunika zazikulu: asilikali a ophunzira, randomization mankhwala, yobereka mankhwala, ndi muyeso wa zakambidwa.
Osapanganika zatsopano chingabwere m'njira zosiyanasiyana ndipo angagwiritsidwe ntchito kuphunzira zosiyanasiyana khalidwe. Koma, pa maziko awo, osapanganika zatsopano ndi zinayi zofunika zazikulu: asilikali a ophunzira, randomization mankhwala, yobereka mankhwala, ndi muyeso wa zakambidwa. M'badwo digito sasintha chikhalidwe yaikulu ya kuyesera, koma amachita kuwapanga iwo zosavuta logistically. Mwachitsanzo, kale mwina zinali zovuta kuyeza makhalidwe a mamiliyoni a anthu, koma tsopano kwasanduka zikuchitika kachitidwe ambiri digito. Akatswiri amene akhoza muganize momwe kuimika mwayi zatsopano athe kuthamanga nkhaniyi anali zosatheka kale.
Kupanga pang'ono koposa konkire-zonse zimene anakhala chimodzimodzi ndi zimene zasintha tiyeni tikambirane Michael Restivo ndi Arnout van de Rijt a (2012) . Ofufuza anafuna kumvetsa zotsatira za mphoto mwamwayi anzawo pa zopereka mkonzi kuti Wikipedia. Makamaka, anaphunzira zotsatira za barnstars, mphoto kuti aliyense Wikipedian angapereke kwa Wikipedian ina kuvomereza khama ndiponso khama chifukwa. Restivo ndi van de Rijt anapereka barnstars 100 oyenerera Wikipedians. Ndiye, Restivo ndi van de Rijt inamva ndi olandira 'zopereka wotsatira ku Wikipedia pa masiku 90. Kwambiri anadabwa kwambiri anthu amene kupereka barnstars ankakonda kupanga kusintha ochepa atalandira mmodzi. M'mawu ena, barnstars ankaoneka kuti kuletsa osati kulimbikitsa zopereka.
Mwamwayi, Restivo ndi van de Rijt sibwenzi atathawa a "perturb ndi kusunga" kuyesera; iwo akuthamanga osapanganika ankalamulira kuyesera. Choncho, kuwonjezera pa kusankha 100 zothandizira pamwamba kulandira barnstar, iwonso ndinatenga 100 zothandizira pamwamba amene sanali kupereka barnstar. Izi mazana anali ngati gulu kulamulira, ndipo amene ali ndi barnstar ndi amene sanali anatsimikiza mosintha. Pamene Restivo ndi van de Rijt anayang'ana pa gulu ulamuliro anapeza kuti anali ndi dontho phompho zopereka kwambiri. Potsiriza, pamene ofufuza za poyerekeza anthu mu gulu mankhwala (ie, analandira barnstars) ndi anthu omwe ali m'gulu la ulamuliro, anapeza kuti barnstar anachititsa akonzi kupereka 60% kwambiri. Koma, kuwonjezeka izi ndi zimene zinali kuchitika monga mbali ya wonse kuchepa magulu onse.
Monga kuphunzira chimenechi chikusonyeza kuti gulu kulamulira mu zatsopano ndi zovuta m'njira penapake paradoxical. Kuti ndendende kuyeza zotsatira za barnstars, Restivo ndi Van der Rijt anafunika kusunga anthu amene sanalandire barnstars. Nthawi zambiri akatswiri amene sali bwino zatsopano samatha kuzindikira kufunika zosaneneka za gulu kulamulira. Ngati Restivo ndi van de Rijt analibe gulu kulamulira, iwo ndakukoka ndendende molakwa. Magulu Control ofunika kwambiri kuti CEO wa kampani zikuluzikulu kasino wanena kuti pali njira zitatu zokha kuti antchito akhoza zipolopolo ku kampani yake: kuba, zachipongwe, namthamangira kuyesera wopanda ulamuliro gulu (Schrage 2011) .
Restivo ndi van de Rijt Maphunzirowa chikusonyeza zinayi zofunika waukulu kuyesera: asilikali, randomization, phukusi, zakambidwa. Pamodzi, zinthu zinai kulola asayansi kusuntha yoposa malumikizanidwe ndi kuyeza zotsatira causal chithandizo. Mwachindunji, randomization zikutanthauza kuti pamene mukuziyenereza zakambidwa kwa magulu mankhwala ndi ulamuliro inu mupeza kafukufuku wa zotsatira causal za phukusi kuti zimene ya ophunzira. M'mawu ena, ndi osapanganika kuyesera ankalamulira dziwani kuti kusiyana kulikonse pa zomwe zakambidwa amayamba ndi phukusi osati confounder, m'zimenezi limene ndidzalenga bwinobwino luso Zakumapeto ntchito kuthekera zakambidwa chimango.
Kuwonjezera pa kukhala chitsanzo chabwino cha zimango za zatsopano, Restivo ndi van de Rijt Maphunzirowa Zimasonyezanso kuti ya kumapeto zatsopano digito akhoza kukhala osiyana kwambiri ndi zatsopano analogi. Mu Restivo lizu van de Rijt, zinali zovuta kupereka barnstar aliyense mu dziko ndi zophweka younikira zotsatira nambala ya kusintha-kwa nthawi yaitali (chifukwa mbiri Sinthani ali basi wolembedwa ndi Wikipedia). Luso limeneli kupulumutsa mankhwala ndi kuyeza zakambidwa pa kwaulere ndi qualitatively mosiyana zatsopano m'mbuyomu. Ngakhale kuyesera nawo anthu 200, izo akanatha kuthamanga ndi anthu 2,000 kapena 20,000. Chinthu chachikulu kuteteza ofufuza ku makulitsidwe mmwamba kuyesera awo ndi chinthu cha 100 sanali ndalama, zinali chikhalidwe. Ndiko kuti, Restivo ndi van de Rijt sanafune kupereka barnstars akonzi kulandira ndipo sanafune kuyesera awo kusokoneza dera Wikipedia (Restivo and Rijt 2012; Restivo and Rijt 2014) . Choncho, ngakhale kuyesa kwa Restivo ndi van de Rijt ndi osavuta, izo zikusonyeza momveka bwino kuti zinthu zina za zatsopano akhala chimodzimodzi ndi ena asintha. Makamaka, nzeru zofunikira pa kuyesera ali yemweyo, koma mmene kukumana ndi zasintha. Kenako, kuti bwino kupeza mwayi analengedwa ndi kusintha, ine anayerekezera nkhaniyi ofufuza kuchita panopa ndi mtundu wa nkhaniyi zachitidwa kale.
