ndemanga zina

Chigawo lakonzedwa kuti ntchito buku, osati muwerenge ngati mafotokozedwe.

• Chiyambi (Ndime 4.1)

Mafunso okhudza causality kafukufuku chikhalidwe ndi ovuta ndi zosamvetsetseka. Pakuti njira maziko kwa causality zochokera chintchito causal, onani Pearl (2009) , ndi njira maziko zochokera zakambidwa osiyanasiyana, onani Imbens and Rubin (2015) (ndi zakumapeto luso mu chaputala ichi). Yerekezerani pakati pa njira ziwiri izi, onani Morgan and Winship (2014) . Pakuti njira ofunda kuti liwulo ndi confounder, onani VanderWeele and Shpitser (2013) .

Mu mutu, ine analenga tinangoti mzere kuwala pakati pa luso lathu kuti anene causal pazimene experimental ndipo sanali kuyesera. Kunena zoona, ine ndikuganiza kuti kusiyana ndi blurrier. Mwachitsanzo, aliyense amavomereza kuti kusuta kumayambitsa khansa ngakhale ife sanachite osapanganika ankalamulira kuyesera kuti amakakamiza anthu fodya. Pakuti chabwino mankhwala Buku kutalika kupanga ziwerengero causal pazimene sanali experimental kuona Rosenbaum (2002) , Rosenbaum (2009) , Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) , ndipo Dunning (2012) .

Chaputala 1 ndi 2 of Freedman, Pisani, and Purves (2007) kupereka mawu omveka bwino mu kusiyana zatsopano, zinthu zatsopano, ndi osapanganika zatsopano.

Manzi (2012) imapereka chidwi ndi munthu angathe kuwaŵerenga oyamba mu underpinnings ndi akatswiri zowerengera wa osapanganika zatsopano. Komanso chidwi zochitika zenizeni dziko la mphamvu ya kuyesera malonda.

• Kodi zatsopano? (Ndime 4.2)

Casella (2008) , Box, Hunter, and Hunter (2005) , Athey and Imbens (2016b) kupereka oyamba bwino zinthu zowerengera ya kapangidwe experimental ndi kusanthula. Komanso pali mankhwala abwino kwambiri a ntchito zatsopano m'minda zosiyanasiyana: zachuma (Bardsley et al. 2009) , Sociology (Willer and Walker 2007; Jackson and Cox 2013) , kuwerenga maganizo (Aronson et al. 1989) , Sayansi ndale (Morton and Williams 2010) , ndi ndondomeko chikhalidwe (Glennerster and Takavarasha 2013) .

Kufunika kwa ophunzira asilikali (mwachitsanzo, zosankhidwazi) ndi zambiri pansi-akukonda kafukufuku experimental. Komabe, ngati zotsatira za mankhwala ndi sakanikira mu anthu, ndiye zosankhidwazi ndi yovuta. Longford (1999) an'kanena izi momveka pamene imalimbikitsa kuti ofufuza kuganiza zatsopano monga kafukufuku anthu ndi zosankhidwazi kochitika mwachisawawa.

• Awiri kutalika kwa zatsopano: labu munda ndi analogi-digito (Ndime 4.3)

The dichotomy kuti ine anapereka pakati pa labu ndi munda zatsopano ndi pang'ono m'Chingelezi chosavuta. Ndipotu, akatswiri ena akhala akuganizira typologies zambiri, anthu imeneyo nadzawasankhula zosiyanasiyana zatsopano munda (Harrison and List 2004; Charness, Gneezy, and Kuhn 2013) . Komanso pali zina ziwiri zatsopano anachita asayansi zosangalatsa zomwe sizikugwirizana bwino mu labu ndi munda dichotomy. Zatsopano kafukufuku ndi zatsopano chikhalidwe Survey zatsopano ndi zatsopano pogwiritsa ntchito zomangamanga za kafukufuku amene analipo ndiponso yerekezerani mayankho kwa Mabaibulo njira ya mafunso (ena zatsopano kafukufuku pokambirana Chapter 3); zambiri pa zatsopano kafukufuku kuona Mutz (2011) . zatsopano Social ndi zatsopano kumene mankhwala ena mfundo zosangalatsa zomwe zitha zagwiridwa ndi boma. Zimene Social zikugwirizana kwambiri ndi pulogalamu kuwunika. Zambiri pa zatsopano policy, onani Orr (1998) , Glennerster and Takavarasha (2013) , ndipo Heckman and Smith (1995) .

Angapo mapepala kuti poyerekeza labu ndi munda zatsopano chabe (Falk and Heckman 2009; Cialdini 2009) ndi mawu a zakambidwa pa zatsopano apadera sayansi ndale (Coppock and Green 2015) , zachuma (Levitt and List 2007a; Levitt and List 2007b; Camerer 2011; Al-Ubaydli and List 2013) komanso sayansi (Mitchell 2012) . Jerit, Barabas, and Clifford (2013) amapereka zabwino kafukufuku pulani kuyerekeza zotsatira labu ndi munda zatsopano.

Nkhawa ophunzira kusintha makhalidwe awo chifukwa amadziwa iwo akumva kwambiri anati amatchedwa kufunika zotsatira, ndipo iwo anaphunzira kuwerenga maganizo (Orne 1962) ndi zachuma (Zizzo 2009) . Ngakhale makamaka kugwirizana ndi zatsopano labu, nkhani zimenezi zingachititse mavuto zatsopano kumunda ndiponso. Ndipotu ankafuna zotsatira Komanso limatchedwa zotsatira Hawthorne, mawu amene zichokela ku kuyesera m'munda, makamaka wotchuka zatsopano chiwalitsiro zimene zinayamba mu 1924 pa Hawthorne Works a Western Zamagetsi Company (Adair 1984; Levitt and List 2011) . Onse obwera kufunika ndi zotsatira Hawthorn ndi zogwirizana ndi maganizo a muyeso zotakasika m'Mutu 2 (onaninso Webb et al. (1966) ).

Mbiri ya zatsopano munda wakhala anafotokoza mu zachuma (Levitt and List 2009) , sayansi ndale (Green and Gerber 2003; Druckman et al. 2006; Druckman and Lupia 2012) , kuwerenga maganizo (Shadish 2002) , ndi ndondomeko poyera (Shadish and Cook 2009) . M'dera lina la sayansi chikhalidwe kumene zatsopano munda mwamsanga anatchuka ndi chitukuko mayiko. Kwa review zabwino kuti ntchito mwa zachuma kuona Banerjee and Duflo (2009) , ndi kwa ziyenera ovuta kuona Deaton (2010) . Kwa review ntchito mu sayansi ndale kuona Humphreys and Weinstein (2009) . Pomaliza, mavuto zikuyenela nawo ndi zatsopano munda akhala kufukulidwa sayansi ndale (Humphreys 2015; Desposato 2016b) ndi zachuma chitukuko (Baele 2013) .

Mu mutu, ine anandiuza kuti chisanadze mankhwala mudziwe angagwiritsidwe ntchito pokonzanso mwandondomeko wa zotsatira Akuti mankhwala, koma pali ena kutsutsana za njira imeneyi: Freedman (2008) , Lin (2013) , ndipo Berk et al. (2013) ; onani Bloniarz et al. (2016) kuti mumve zambiri.

• Kupita kuseri zatsopano chosavuta (Ndime 4.4)

Ine ndinakusankhani kuganizira mfundo zitatu: n'loonadi, heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala, ndi njira. mfundo zimenezi ndi mayina osiyanasiyana m'minda yosiyanasiyana. Mwachitsanzo, akatswiri amakonda kusuntha yoposa zatsopano yosavuta ndi moganizira owayimira ndi oyang'anira (Baron and Kenny 1986) . Lingaliro la nkhoswe akagwidwa zimene Ine kuitana njira, ndi lingaliro la oyang'anira akagwidwa zimene Ine kuitana kunja n'loonadi (mwachitsanzo, kodi zotsatira za kafukufuku ndi kukhala osiyana ngati anali kuthamanga pa nkhani zosiyanasiyana) ndi heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala ( mwachitsanzo, ndi zotsatira zazikulu kwa anthu ena kuposa anthu ena).

Kuyesa kwa Schultz et al. (2007) chimasonyeza bwanji mfundo chikhalidwe angagwiritsidwe ntchito kupanga njira zothandiza. Kwa mfundo zambiri ambiri za ntchito ya chiphunzitso sanakonze njira zothandiza, onani Walton (2014) .

• N'loonadi (Ndime 4.4.1)

Malingaliro a n'loonadi mkati ndi kunja anali koyamba mu Campbell (1957) . Onani Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) kwa mbiri zambiri ndi elaboration mosamala zowerengera mapeto n'loonadi, n'loonadi mkati, kumanga unali woyenerera, ndipo unali woyenerera kunja.

Kuti mwachidule zokhudza zowerengera mapeto n'loonadi mu zatsopano kuona Gerber and Green (2012) (kwa maganizo sayansi chikhalidwe) ndi Imbens and Rubin (2015) (kwa maganizo zowerengera). Ena nkhani ya zowerengera mapeto unali woyenerera kuti uka makamaka pa Intaneti zatsopano m'munda monga nkhani monga njira computationally imayenera polenga intervals chidaliro deta yozungulira (Bakshy and Eckles 2013) .

Internal n'loonadi kungakhale kovuta kuonetsetsa mu zatsopano zovuta kumunda. Mwachitsanzo, Gerber and Green (2000) , Imai (2005) , ndipo Gerber and Green (2005) kutsutsana za kukhazikitsa zovuta munda kuyesera za kukavota. Kohavi et al. (2012) ndi Kohavi et al. (2013) kupereka oyamba mu mavuto a imeneyi n'loonadi mu Intaneti zatsopano kumunda.

nkhawa yaikulu ndi n'loonadi mkati ndi mavuto ndi randomization. Njira imodzi zingakhale kudziwa mavuto ndi randomization ndi kuyerekeza magulu mankhwala ndi ulamuliro pa makhalidwe kuziona. Mtundu uwu chitsanzo amatchedwa bwino cheke. Onani Hansen and Bowers (2008) kuti njira zowerengera moyenera macheke, ndi kuwona Mutz and Pemantle (2015) kwa nkhawa macheke bwino. Mwachitsanzo, ntchito bwino cheke Allcott (2011) anapeza kuti pali umboni wosonyeza kuti randomization sanali akuyendera molondola zitatu za zatsopano ena a zatsopano OPower (onani Table 2; malo 2, 6, ndi 8). Pakuti njira zina, kuona Imbens and Rubin (2015) , Chapter 21.

za zinthu zina zazikulu zokhudza n'loonadi mkati ndi: 1) mmodzi kumbali sanali kugwilizana, kunalibe aliyense mu gulu mankhwala makamaka analandira chithandizo, 2) ziwiri kumbali sanali kugwilizana, kunalibe aliyense mu gulu chithandizo akulandira mankhwala ndi zina anthu mu gulu ulamuliro kulandira mankhwala, 3) attrition, kumene zakambidwa si anayeza ena ophunzira, ndi 4) kulowelera, kumene mankhwala amatayika pa anthu mu chikhalidwe chithandizo kwa anthu mu chikhalidwe kulamulira. Onani Gerber and Green (2012) Chaputala 5, 6, 7, ndi 8 zambiri pa aliyense za izi.

Zambiri pa kumanga n'loonadi, onani Westen and Rosenthal (2003) , ndi zambiri pa kumanga n'loonadi magwero aakulu deta, Lazer (2015) ndi Chapter 2 m'buku ili.

Mbali ina unali woyenerera kunja ndi pamalo phukusi ndi mayesero. Allcott (2015) imapereka kusamala ongolankhula ndi wazotsatira mankhwala malo kusankha kukondera. M'magazini ino ikufotokozedwanso mu Deaton (2010) . Kuwonjezera chitidwe mu malo ambiri, phukusi Home Energy Report wakhalanso paokha kuphunzira ndi magulu angapo kafukufuku (mwachitsanzo, Ayres, Raseman, and Shih (2013) ).

• Heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala (Ndime 4.4.2)

Pakuti mwachidule kwambiri a heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala zatsopano kumunda, onani Chapter 12 Gerber and Green (2012) . Pakuti oyamba kuti heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala m'mayesero mankhwala, onani Kent and Hayward (2007) , Longford (1999) , ndipo Kravitz, Duan, and Braslow (2004) . Heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala ambiri kuganizira zosiyana zochokera makhalidwe chisanadze mankhwala. Ngati mukufuna heterogeneity zochokera zakambidwa pambuyo mankhwala, ndiye approachs zovuta zambiri zofunika monga yaikulu stratification (Frangakis and Rubin 2002) ; onani Page et al. (2015) kuti ndemanga.

Akatswiri ambiri amati ndi heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala ntchito liniya mgwirizano, koma njira atsopano kudalira kuphunzira makina Mwachitsanzo Green and Kern (2012) , Imai and Ratkovic (2013) , Taddy et al. (2016) , ndipo Athey and Imbens (2016a) .

Pali ena sankakhulupirira za anapeza heterogeneity za kuipa chifukwa cha mavuto angapo poyerekezera ndi "nsomba." Pali zosiyanasiyana njira zowerengera zimene zingathandize adiresi nkhawa poyerekeza angapo (Fink, McConnell, and Vollmer 2014; List, Shaikh, and Xu 2016) . Njira imodzi nkhawa "usodzi" ndi chisanadze kalembera, amene ayamba wamba mu kuwerenga maganizo (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , sayansi ndale (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) ndipo zachuma (Olken 2015) .

Mu kuphunzira Costa and Kahn (2013) pafupifupi theka lokha la mabanja a mu kuyesera zamanga zogwirizana ndi mfundo zaziwerengero. Owerenga chidwi tsatanetsatane ndi mavuto ndi kusanthula ayenera amanena za pepala original.

• Njira (Ndime 4.4.3)

Njira ndi amazipanga zofunika, koma zinapezeka kuti zovuta kuphunzira. Research za njira yogwirizana kwambiri kuphunzira owayimira mu kuwerenga maganizo (koma wonaninso VanderWeele (2009) kwa fanizo yeniyeni pakati pa malingaliro awiri). Likuyandikira Statistical zifukwa kupeza, monga njira yapangidwa Baron and Kenny (1986) , ndi zachilendo. Mwatsoka, likukhalira kuti ndondomeko amene amadalira ena mfundo wamphamvu (Bullock, Green, and Ha 2010) ndi kuvutika ngati pali njira zambiri, monga mmodzi angayembekezere zinthu zambiri (Imai and Yamamoto 2013; VanderWeele and Vansteelandt 2014) . Imai et al. (2011) ndi Imai and Yamamoto (2013) kupereka bwino njira zowerengera. Komanso, VanderWeele (2015) amapereka buku kutalika mankhwala ndi zotsatira zake zofunika, kuphatikizapo njira bwino kugawa tilinazo.

A njira zosiyana tikunena nkhaniyi amafuna kupezerera limagwirira mwachindunji (mwachitsanzo, popereka oyendetsa vitamini C). Mwatsoka, pamalo osiyanasiyana sayansi chikhalidwe pali zambiri njira angapo ndipo n'kovuta kupanga mankhwala kuti kusintha wina popanda kusintha ena. Ena njira kuti experimentally njira bongo amafotokozedwa Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto (2013) , Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan (2011) , ndipo Pirlott and MacKinnon (2016) .

Pomaliza, njira Komanso kale mu nzeru za sayansi anafotokozedwa ndi Hedström and Ylikoski (2010) .

• Ntchito mapangidwe zosatha (Ndime 4.5.1.1)

Kwambiri pa ntchito ya maphunziro makalata ndi maphunziro kafukufuku kuyeza tsankho kuona Pager (2007) .

• Manga kuyesera anu (Ndime 4.5.1.2)

Ambiri njira yosankha ophunzira kuti nkhaniyi mumanga ndi Amazon Mawotchi Turk (MTurk). Chifukwa MTurk otsanzira mbali ya zatsopano za malipiro chikhalidwe labu anthu kumaliza ntchito kuti iwo sakanati achite kwa akatswiri mfulu zambiri kale ntchito Turkers (antchito pa MTurk) pamene ophunzira mu nkhani anthu zatsopano chifukwa mu mofulumira ndi kusonkhanitsa mtengo deta kuposa miyambo pa sukulu zatsopano zasayansi (Paolacci, Chandler, and Ipeirotis 2010; Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012; Rand 2012; Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) .

Mphamvu lalikulu la choti ophunzira alemba ntchito ku MTurk ndi panali: amalola ofufuza yosankha ophunzira mwamsanga ndipo akamavutika. Pamene zatsopano labu akhoza kutenga masabata kuthamanga ndi zatsopano munda angathe kutenga miyezi kukhazikitsa mmwamba, zatsopano ndi ophunzira alemba ntchito ku MTurk akhoza kuthamanga mu masiku. Mwachitsanzo, Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz (2012) anatha kum'tenga nkhani 400 tsiku limodzi nawo ndi kuyesera 8 yokha. Komanso, ophunzira amenewa alemba ntchito kwa cholinga chilichonse (kuphatikizapo Kafukufuku ndi mgwirizano misa, monga tinafotokozera m'Mutu 3 ndi 5). omasuka lino la asilikali zikutanthauza kuti akatswiri mukhoza kuthamanga mbali ya zatsopano athu mothamanga.

Pamaso kupeza ophunzira kuchokera MTurk kwa zatsopano anu, pali zinthu zinayi zofunika kudziwa. Choyamba, akatswiri ambiri sankakhulupirira si yeniyeni zatsopano zokhudza Turkers. Chifukwa kukayikira zimenezi si yeniyeni, n'zovuta kutsutsa umboni. Koma patatha zaka zingapo maphunziro ntchito Turkers, tikhoza tsopano kunena kuti sankakhulupirira zimenezi si zofunika kwambiri. Pakhala maphunziro ambiri kuyerekeza ndi chiwerengero cha Turkers kuti anthu ena ndi maphunziro ambiri kuyerekeza zotsatira za kafukufuku wawo ndi Turkers zotsatira kuchokera anthu ena. Popeza ntchito zonsezi, ine ndikuganiza kuti njira yabwino muganize kuti Turkers ndi wololera mayiko chitsanzo, mofanana ophunzira koma pang'ono more osiyanasiyana (Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) . Choncho, monga momwe ophunzira ndi anthu zomveka kuti ena koma zonse kafukufuku experimental, Turkers ndi anthu zomveka kuti ena koma zonse kafukufuku. Ngati inu muti ntchito ndi Turkers, ndiye ndi bwino kuwerenga zambiri za maphunziro amenewa poyerekeza ndi kumvetsa mfundo zina zabwino zawo.

Chachiwiri, akatswiri apanga kwambiri makhalidwe awonjezere n'loonadi mkati mwa Turk zatsopano, ndipo inu kuphunzira Baibulo ndiponso kutsatira izi bwino makhalidwe (Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012) . Mwachitsanzo, ofufuza ntchito Turkers akulimbikitsidwa kugwiritsa ntchito screeners kuchotsa ophunzira sasamala (Berinsky, Margolis, and Sances 2014; Berinsky, Margolis, and Sances 2016) (koma wonaninso DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015b) ndi DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015a) ). Ngati mulibe kuchotsa ophunzira sasamala, ndiye mphamvu iliyonse ya mankhwala akhoza kutsukidwa ndi phokoso anayambitsa kuchokera kwa ophunzira sasamala, ndi kuchita chiwerengero cha ophunzira sasamala angakhale wodalirika. Mu kuyesa kwa Huber ndi anzake (2012) 30% ya ophunzira analephera chidwi screeners zofunika. Vuto lina wamba ndi Turkers ndi sanali wosachangamuka ophunzira (Chandler et al. 2015) .

Chachitatu, wachibale kwa mitundu ina ya zatsopano digito, MTurk zatsopano sangathe onga; Stewart et al. (2015) pafupifupi nthawi iliyonse pali pafupifupi 7,000 anthu MTurk.

Pomaliza, muyenera kudziwa kuti MTurk ndi dera ndi malamulo ake ndi malamulo (Mason and Suri 2012) . Mu njira yomweyo imene mukufuna kuyesa kupeza zokhudza chikhalidwe cha dziko limene inu mumapita kuthamanga zatsopano anu, inu ayesetse kupeza zambiri zokhudza chikhalidwe ndi malamulo a Turkers (Salehi et al. 2015) . Ndipo, inu mukudziwa kuti Turkers adzakhala akulankhula za kafukufuku anu ngati inu kuchita chinachake zosayenera kapena kuba (Gray et al. 2016) .

MTurk ndi njira amazipanga yabwino yosankha ophunzira zatsopano anu, kaya labu ngati, monga Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) , kapena zambiri kumunda ngati, monga Mason and Watts (2009) , Goldstein, McAfee, and Suri (2013) , Goldstein et al. (2014) , Horton and Zeckhauser (2016) , ndipo Mao et al. (2016) .

• Manga mankhwala anu (Ndime 4.5.1.3)

Ngati mukuganiza kuyesera kulenga mankhwala anu, ine amalangiza kuti mukuwerenga malangizo anapereka ndi MovieLens gulu Harper and Konstan (2015) . A kumvetsa chinsinsi chitsanzo chawo ndicho ntchito iliyonse bwino alipo ambiri, zolephera zambiri. Mwachitsanzo, MovieLens gulu anapezerapo mankhwala ena monga GopherAnswers kuti anali wangwiro zolephera (Harper and Konstan 2015) . Chitsanzo china katswiriyu kulephera akuyesa kumanga mankhwala ndi kuyesa Edward Castronova ndi kumanga masewera Intaneti wotchedwa Arden. Ngakhale $ 250,000 mu ndalama ntchitoyi anali kulephera (Baker 2008) . Ntchito ngati GopherAnswers ndi Arden, mwatsoka kwambiri yodziwika kwambiri kuposa ntchito ngati MovieLens. Potsiriza, pamene ine ndinanena izo sindinadziwe ofufuza ina iliyonse imene kupambana anamanga mankhwala kuyesera mobwerezabwereza apa ndi muyezo wanga: 1) ophunzira ntchito mankhwala chifukwa cha zimene limatipatsa iwo (mwachitsanzo, iwo salipidwa ndipo sachita ongodzipereka kuthandiza sayansi) ndipo 2) mankhwala akugwiritsa ntchito kuyesera oposa osiyana (mwachitsanzo, osati kuyesa chomwecho maulendo angapo ndi maiwe osiyana ophunzira). Ngati inu mukudziwa zitsanzo zina, chonde ndidziwitseni.

• Mnzake ndi mphamvu (Ndime 4.5.2)

Ndamva maganizo nusu Pasteur ndi kukambirana pafupipafupi ku makampani zina zamakono, ndipo kumathandiza bungwe khama kafukufuku pa Google (Spector, Norvig, and Petrov 2012) .

Mgwirizano ndi phunziro anzake ' (2012) komanso akufuna kudziwa zotsatira za mankhwala awa pa mabwenzi a anthu amene anawalandira. Chifukwa cha kamangidwe ka kuyesera kuti, spillovers izi zili zovuta kudziwa mopanda; owerenga chidwi ayenera kuona Bond et al. (2012) kuti mumve tsatanetsatane. Kuyesera ndi mbali ya mwambo yaitali zatsopano sayansi ndale khama kulimbikitsa Kuvota (Green and Gerber 2015) . Izi zatsopano kumva kuchokera-ndi-voti ndi anthu am'dera chifukwa iwo ali Pasteur ndi nusu. Kuti, pali anthu ambiri amene olimbikitsa kuonjezera kukavota ndi kuponya mavoti kungakhale khalidwe chidwi choyesa mfundo zambiri ambiri kusintha khalidwe ndi mphamvu ya maubwenzi.

Akatswiri ena malangizo za kuthamanga zatsopano kumunda ndi mabungwe mnzake monga ndale, NGOs, ndi mabizinesi (Loewen, Rubenson, and Wantchekon 2010; List 2011; Gueron 2002) . Ena anapereka malangizo okhudza mmene mabungwe ndi magulu akhoza zimakhudzira mapangidwe kafukufuku (Green, Calfano, and Aronow 2014; King et al. 2007) . Partnership amathanso kukhala mafunso zikuyenela (Humphreys 2015; Nickerson and Hyde 2016) .

• Design malangizo (Ndime 4.6)

Ngati mukupita kulenga kukonzekeratu kusanthulidwe pamaso kuthamanga kuyesera wanu, ndiganiza kuti kuyamba kuwerenga malangizo malipoti. The kugwirizana (Consolidated Standard Kusimba za Mayesero) malangizo amenewa anayamba mankhwala (Schulz et al. 2010) ndi kusinthidwa kufufuza chikhalidwe (Mayo-Wilson et al. 2013) . Zogwiritsira zokhudza malangizo wakhala akupangidwa ndi akonzi a Journal of Experimental Science Political (Gerber et al. 2014) (onaninso Mutz and Pemantle (2015) ndi Gerber et al. (2015) ). Pomaliza, malipoti malangizo yapangidwa mu kuwerenga maganizo (Group 2008) , ndipo onaninso Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn (2011) .

Ngati inu kulenga kukonzekeratu kusanthulidwe muyenera kuganizira chisanadze kukalembetsa m'kaundula chifukwa chisanadze kalembera kwambiri ndi chidaliro kuti ena mwa zotsatira. Komanso, ngati mukuchita kumupatsa izo kuchepetsa mphamvu okondedwa wanu kusintha kuwunika ataona zotsatira. Pre-kulembetsa ndi ayamba wamba mu kuwerenga maganizo (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , sayansi ndale (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) , ndi zachuma (Olken 2015) .

Pamene kulenga chisanafike kusanthula dongosolo wanu ayenera kudziwa kuti ena ofufuza ntchito mgwirizano ndi njira okhudzana kusintha mwandondomeko zokwana pafupifupi zotsatira mankhwala, ndipo pali mtsutso za njira imeneyi: Freedman (2008) , Lin (2013) , ndi Berk et al. (2013) ; onani Bloniarz et al. (2016) kuti mumve zambiri.

Design malangizo mwachindunji Intaneti zatsopano wakumunda anaperekanso mu Konstan and Chen (2007) ndi Chen and Konstan (2015) .

• Pangani zero deta variable mtengo (Ndime 4.6.1)

Zambiri pa zatsopano MusicLab, onani Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006) , Salganik and Watts (2008) , Salganik and Watts (2009b) , Salganik and Watts (2009a) , ndipo Salganik (2007) . Zambiri pa wopambana-kutenga onse misika, onani Frank and Cook (1996) . Zambiri mwayi untangling ndi luso zambiri zambiri, werengani Mauboussin (2012) , Watts (2012) , ndipo Frank (2016) .

Pali njira ina kuchotsa ndalama ophunzira kuti akatswiri tiyenera kugwiritsa ntchito mosamala: usilikali. Ambiri Intaneti zatsopano munda ophunzira kwenikweni usilikali mu kafukufuku komanso konse kulipidwa. Zitsanzo za njira imeneyi monga Restivo ndi van de Rijt a (2012) kuyesera pa phindu mu Wikipedia ndi Mgwirizano ndi mnzake ndi (2012) kuyesera pa kulimbikitsa anthu kuvota. zatsopano izi kwenikweni ndi zero mtengo variable, ali zero variable mtengo ofufuza. Ngakhale ndalama zambiri zatsopano izi ndi yaing'ono kwambiri kwa ophunzira aliyense, ndalama yaing'ono woyikidwa ndi nambala yaikulu kwambiri ophunzira kuwonjezera mwamsanga. Akatswiri kuthamanga chachikulu Intaneti zatsopano zambiri kulungamitsa kufunika yaing'ono zotsatira pafupifupi mankhwala ponena kuti izi zotsatira ang'onoang'ono angathe kukhala zofunika pamene ntchito kwa anthu ambiri. Enieni maganizo N'chimodzimodzinso ndi ndalama zimene ofufuza kukakamiza ophunzira. Ngati zatsopano wanu amachititsa anthu miliyoni kuwononga miniti imodzi, kuyesera si zoipa kwa munthu aliyense makamaka, koma akaphatikiza izo wakhala adadzonga pafupifupi zaka za nthawi.

Njira ina kulenga zero variable mtengo malipiro kwa ophunzira ndi ntchito mpikisano, ndi njira iyenso ntchito kafukufuku kafukufuku (Halpern et al. 2011) . Pomaliza, zambiri za angagwiritse yosangalatsa wosuta-zokumana kuona Toomim et al. (2011) .

• M'malo, Yeretsani, ndi Kuchepetsa (Ndime 4.6.2)

Apa ndi matanthauzo oyamba atatu R, kuchokera Russell and Burch (1959) :

"M'malo zikutanthauza M'MALO amazindikira wamoyo nyama apamwamba a chuma insentient. Kuchepetsa amatanthauza kuchepetsa chiwerengero cha nyama ntchito kuti mudziwe za kuchuluka anapatsidwa ndi cholondola. Kuyengedwa zikutanthauza kuchepa mu zochitika kapena zovuta njira wodyerana ntchito nyama zimene adakali ndi kugwiritsidwa ntchito. "

The kuti Ine akamufunsirire musati kunyalanyaza mfundo zikuyenela anafotokoza mu Chapter 6. R atatu M'malo mwake, iwo ndi more analongosola Baibulo mmodzi wa anthu mfundo beneficence-mwachindunji kulowa zatsopano anthu.

Mukamakambirana Maganizo kufalikira, pali atatu nkhani si koyenela kukumbukira pamene kutanthauzira kuyesera. Choyamba, si bwino mmene mfundo zenizeni za kafukufuku ndi kugwirizana kuti zonena za ongolankhula; mwa kulankhula kwina, pali mafunso okhudza kumanga unali woyenerera. Si bwino kuti zabwino ndi zoipa mawu udindo kwenikweni chizindikiro wabwino wa boma maganizo a ophunzira chifukwa 1) si bwino kuti mawu amene anthu aika amene amasonyeza bwino maganizo awo komanso 2) si bwino kuti makamaka mawu kusanthula njira zimene ofufuza za ntchito amatha molondola amachitsimikizira mtima (Beasley and Mason 2015; Panger 2016) . M'mawu ena, pakhoza kukhala zoipa muyeso wa mbendera okondera. Chachiwiri, kapangidwe ndi kusanthula kuyesera watiuza kanthu za amene mwapeza kwambiri (ie, palibe kusanthula heterogeneity wa zotsatira chithandizo) ndi njira akhoza kukhala. Pankhaniyi ofufuza anali zambiri zokhudza ophunzira, koma iwo anali kwenikweni ankachita monga zida pomalizira. Chachitatu, mmene kukula mu kuyesera anali ochepa; kusiyana pakati mankhwala ndi kulamulira zinthu ndi 1 mawu 1,000. Mu pepala awo, Kramer ndi anzake apange choncho ndi zotsatira za kukula zimenezi n'kofunika kwambiri chifukwa mamiliyoni mazanamazana anthu kulumikiza News awo Dyetsa tsiku lililonse. M'mawu ena, iwo amati ngakhale mavuto amene ang'ono munthu aliyense ali wamkulu mu akaphatikiza. Ngakhale kuvomereza mfundo imeneyi, komabe si bwino ngati zotsatira za kukula zimenezi n'kofunika pankhani funso more ambiri sayansi za kufalikira maganizo. Zambiri zochitika kumene zotsatira yaing'ono ndi zofunika kuona Prentice and Miller (1992) .

Kumbali ya R choyamba (M'malo), kuyerekezera Maganizo kufalikira kuyesera (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) ndi maganizo kufalikira zachilengedwe kuyesera (Coviello et al. 2014) amapereka maphunziro ena onse za malonda-offs nawo ndi amayenda zimene ku mayesero achilengedwe (ndi njira zina monga zofanana chiwembucho kuyandikira zatsopano mu deta si experimental, onani Chapter 2). Kuwonjezera ubwino zachinyengo, kusintha experimental maphunziro sanali experimental imathandizanso ofufuza kuphunzira mankhwala kuti ndi logistically sangathe atumiza. Izi phindu zabwino ndiponso panali wolira ndalama, Komabe. Ndi zatsopano zachilengedwe ofufuza zochepa kulamulira zinthu ngati asilikali a ophunzira, randomization, ndi chikhalidwe cha mankhwala. Mwachitsanzo, malire mmodzi wa mvula monga mankhwala ndi kuti onse kumawonjezera positivity ndi amachepetsa negativity. Mowerengera experimental Koma Kramer ndi anzake anatha kusintha positivity ndi negativity paokha.

Njira makamaka ntchito Coviello et al. (2014) Enanso analongosola mu Coviello, Fowler, and Franceschetti (2014) . Pakuti chiyambi zosintha zoimbidwa kuona Angrist and Pischke (2009) (zochepa ofunda) kapena Angrist, Imbens, and Rubin (1996) (more ofunda). Kwa maganizo kukayikira zosintha zoimbidwa kuona Deaton (2010) , ndi chiyambi zosintha zoimbidwa ndi zida ofooka (mvula ndi chida ofooka), onani Murray (2006) .

More zambiri, mawu zabwino zatsopano zachilengedwe ndi Dunning (2012) , ndipo Rosenbaum (2002) , Rosenbaum (2009) , ndipo Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) amapereka malingaliro wabwino kuyerekeza zotsatira causal popanda zatsopano.

Kumbali ya R wachiwiri (KUYERETSEDWA), pali sayansi ndi panali malonda-offs tikaonetsetsa kusintha kamangidwe ka kufalikira mumtima kutsekereza posts kuti kunachititsa posts. Mwachitsanzo, mwina sizingakhale kuti kukhazikitsa luso la News Amadyetsa amapanga ndi zayamba zosavuta kuchita kafukufuku ndi kutsekereza posts osati kuyesera ndi kunachititsa posts (onani kuti kuyesera ndi kutsekereza posts akhoza akuyendera ngati wosanjikiza pa pamwamba pa dongosolo News Amadyetsa popanda kufunika limasinthira a dongosolo lenileni). Mwasayansi Komabe, chiphunzitso kulankhula kuyesera sanali bwino amati kapangidwe mmodzi pamwamba pa wina.

Mwatsoka, ine sindiri kudziwa kafukufuku wodalirika isanafike za nyota wachibale kutchinga ndi kunachititsa zili mu News Amadyetsa. Komanso, sindinaonepo kufufuza zambiri za akuyenga mankhwala kuti wochepa zoipa; chapadera ndi Jones and Feamster (2015) , amene amaona nkhani ya muyeso wa Internet kufufuza (a mutu ine kukambirana mu Chapter 6 Mogwirizana ndi phunziro Encore (Burnett and Feamster 2015; Narayanan and Zevenbergen 2015) ).

Kumbali ya R wachitatu (Kuchepetsa), mawu abwino kugawa zopangira mphamvu ndi Cohen (1988) . covariates Pre-mankhwala akhoza m'gulu siteji kapangidwe ndi gawo kusanthula kuyesa; Chapter 4 Gerber and Green (2012) imapereka oyamba bwino njira onse, ndi Casella (2008) amapereka zambiri mozama mankhwala. Njira kuti ntchito mfundo chisanadze mankhwala randomization ndi ambiri wotchedwa mwina oletsedwa machenjerero experimental kapena stratified machenjerero experimental (terminology si ntchito zonse kudutsa m'madera); njira zimenezi kwambiri zokhudzana ndi njira stratified zosankhidwazi m'Mutu 3. Onani Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon (2016) kwambiri pa ntchito machenjerero awa zatsopano chachikulu. Covariates Pre-mankhwala akhoza kukhala mbali ya gawo kusanthula. McKenzie (2012) ikufotokoza njira kusiyana mu kusiyana kwa kusanthula zatsopano munda mwatsatanetsatane. Onani Carneiro, Lee, and Wilhelm (2016) kwambiri pa malonda-offs pakati mosiyana kuonjezera mogometsa mu akuti zotsatira mankhwala. Potsiriza, pamene kusankha kuyesa monga covariates chisanadze mankhwala pa siteji kamangidwe kapena kusanthula (kapena onse), pali zinthu zingapo zoti tikambirane. Pa pamene ofufuza kusonyeza kuti iwo sali "usodzi" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , ntchito chisanadze mankhwala covariates mu gawo kapangidwe zingakhale zothandiza (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) . Mu zochitika ophunzira kufika sequentially, makamaka pa Intaneti zatsopano kumunda, pogwiritsa ntchito mfundo chisanadze mankhwala mu gawo kapangidwe kungakhale kovuta logistically, onani Mwachitsanzo Xie and Aurisset (2016) .

M'pofunikanso kuwonjezera pang'ono yodziŵiratu zinthu pasadakhale za chifukwa kusiyana-mu-zosiyana kwambiri kwambiri kuposa kusiyana mu njira. Intaneti zakambidwa ambiri kwambiri kusiyana (onani mwachitsanzo, Lewis and Rao (2015) ndi Lamb et al. (2015) ) ndipo kokhazikika pa nthawi. Pankhaniyi, kusintha mphambu adzakhala zayamba ang'onoang'ono masiyanidwe, kuwonjezera mphamvu ya mayeso zowerengera. Chifukwa chimodzi akufika si ntchito kawirikawiri kuti isanafike zaka digito sizinali zachilendo ndi zakambidwa chisanadze mankhwala. A njira yowona kuganizila ndi kulingalira kuyesera kuyeza ngati zolimbitsa thupi enieni amawondetsa. Ngati mukuchita kusiyana mu njira yofikira, kafukufuku wako adzakhala ndi masiyanidwe chochokera masiyanidwe mu miyeso mu anthu. Ngati mukuchita kusiyana-mu-kusiyana njira Komabe, mwachibadwa zikuchitika akusinthasintha zolemera kuchotsedwa ndi inu mosavuta kudziwa kusiyana chifukwa cha mankhwala.

Njira imodzi yofunika kwambiri kuchepetsa chiwerengero cha ophunzira mu kafukufuku wako ndi kuchititsa kusanthula mphamvu Kramer ndi anzake akanachita zochokera zazikulu mmene anati kwa kuyesera zachilengedwe Coviello et al. (2014) kapena kale kafukufuku sanali experimental ndi Kramer (2012) (Ndipotu zimenezi ndi ntchito kumapeto kwa chaputala ichi). Taonani kuti ntchito imeneyi ya kusanthula mphamvu pang'ono wosiyana kuposa mmene. Mu m'badwo analogi, akatswiri ambiri anachita kusanthula mphamvu kuonetsetsa kuti kuphunzira sanali chochepa (ie, pansi pa mphamvu zoyendera). Panopa, akatswiri ayenera kuchita kusanthula mphamvu kuonetsetsa kuti kuphunzira ndi aakulu kwambiri (ie, pa mphamvu zoyendera).

Potsiriza, ndinali kuwonjezera wachinayi R: Repurpose. Kuti, ngati akatswiri amapezeka deta kwambiri experimental muyezo kuthetsa kafukufuku funso original, iwo ayenera repurpose deta kufunsa mafunso latsopano. Tiyerekeze kuti Kramer ndi anzake anagwiritsa ntchito kusiyana-mu-kusiyana estimator ndipo anapezeka ndi deta kuposa anafunika kuthana awo funso kafukufuku. M'malo kugwiritsa ntchito deta mokwanira, iwo akanakhoza anaphunzira kukula mmene monga ntchito Pre-mankhwala akuti maganizo. Monga Schultz et al. (2007) anapeza kuti zotsatira za mankhwala zinali zosiyana kuwala ndi katundu owerenga, mwina zotsatira za News Amadyetsa anali osiyana anthu amene kale ankakonda nsanamira mauthenga wosangalala (kapena wachisoni). Repurposing zingachititse kuti "usodzi" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) ndi "tsa-kuwakhadzula" (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) , koma izi makamaka addressable ndi osakaniza malipoti moona (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) chisanafike m'kaundula (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , ndi njira makina kuphunzira kupewa kuchita pa-koyenera.