4.4.1 n'loonadi

N'loonadi amatanthauza mmene zotsatira za kuyesera kuthandizira mapeto ambiri.

No kuyesera ali wangwiro, ndipo ofufuza apanga mawu yaikulu kulongosola mavuto. N'loonadi amatanthauza mmene zotsatira za kafukufuku makamaka kuthandiza ena mapeto ambiri. Asayansi Social aona kuti anagawa n'loonadi ku mitundu zinayi zofunika: zowerengera mapeto n'loonadi, n'loonadi mkati, kumanga n'loonadi, ndi kunja n'loonadi (Shadish, Cook, and Campbell 2001, Ch 2) . Asanadziwe mfundo izi adzakupatsani mndandanda maganizo kwa critiquing ndi bwino kapangidwe ndi kusanthula kuyesera, ndi zikuthandizani inu kulankhula ndi akatswiri ena.

Statistical mapeto n'loonadi kwagona mozungulira ngati kusanthula zowerengera wa kuyesera kunachitika molondola. M'nkhani ya Schultz et al. (2007) funso limeneli akhoza Njira ngati yopangidwa awo tsa-mfundo molondola. kusanthula Statistical ndi singathe kufotokoza buku lino, koma ndinganene kuti mfundo zowerengera anafunika kupanga ndiponso tione zatsopano sizinasinthe mu m'badwo digito. Komabe, deta osiyana malo zatsopano digito Kodi kulenga mwayi zowerengera (mwachitsanzo, pogwiritsa ntchito njira makina kuphunzira chaka heterogeneity za kuipa mankhwala (Imai and Ratkovic 2013) ) ndi mavuto atsopano zowerengera (mwachitsanzo, kutchinga kafukufuku wawo waukulu (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) ).

Internal n'loonadi kwagona mozungulira ngati njira experimental ankachiritsa molondola. Tikaonanso kuyesa kwa Schultz et al. (2007) , mafunso okhudza n'loonadi mkati akanakhoza wagona padziko randomization ndi yobereka mankhwala, ndi muyeso wa zakambidwa. Mwachitsanzo, mukhoza kuganizira kuti ogwira kafukufuku sindinawerenge wa mamitala magetsi molondola. Ndipotu, Schultz ndi anzake anali nkhawa vuto limeneli ndipo anali chitsanzo cha mamita kuwerenga kawiri; Mwamwayi, zotsatira zake zinali kwenikweni zofanana. Ambiri, Schultz lizu anzake 'akuoneka kuti mkulu mkati n'loonadi, koma izi sizichitika nthawi zonse; zovuta kumunda ndi zatsopano Intaneti zambiri kuthamanga mavuto kwenikweni kupereka mankhwala ufulu anthu abwino ndi kuyeza zakambidwa kwa wina aliyense. Mwamwayi, m'badwo digito zingathandize kuchepetsa nkhawa n'loonadi mkati chifukwa mosavuta kuonetsetsa kuti mankhwala laperekedwa monga cholinga amene amayenera kulandira ndi kuyeza zakambidwa ophunzira onse.

Kumanga malo n'loonadi padziko machesi pakati deta ndi yamanga ongolankhula. Monga kudafotokozedwa mu Phunziro 2, yamanga ndi umboni malingaliro asayansi chikhalidwe chake chokhudza. Mwatsoka, mfundo zimenezi umboni sikuti nthawi zonse matanthauzo bwino ndi miyezo. Tikaonanso Schultz et al. (2007) , anthu amanena kuti injunctive Zamakhalidwe akhoza kuchepetsa ntchito magetsi amafuna ofufuza kupanga mankhwala kodi aupeza "malamulo injunctive chikhalidwe" (mwachitsanzo, ndi emoticon) ndi kuyeza "ntchito magetsi." Mu zatsopano analogi, akatswiri ambiri cholinga mankhwala awo ndi anayeza zakambidwa awo. njira Izi zipangitsa kuti, ngati kuli kotheka, a zatsopano agwirizane yamanga umboni akuphunziridwa. Mu zatsopano digito pamene ofufuza okondedwa ndi makampani kapena maboma kupulumutsa mankhwala ndi ntchito zonse pa kachitidwe deta kuyeza zakambidwa, machesi pakati pochita ndi yamanga ongolankhula zochepa zolimba. Choncho ndimayembekezera kuti amange n'loonadi adzatengera kukhala nkhawa zazikulu zatsopano digito kuposa zatsopano analogi.

Pomaliza, n'loonadi kunja kwagona mozungulira ngati zotsatira za kafukufuku akatero zambiri ku madera ena. Tikaonanso Schultz et al. (2007) , mmodzi kuti, atero chomwechi lingaliro yopatsa anthu zokhudza wakagwiritsidwe awo mphamvu mu ubale ndi anzawo ndi mbendera ya malamulo injunctive (mwachitsanzo, ndi emoticon) -reduce mphamvu wakagwiritsidwe ngati zinachitika m'njira yosiyana mu malo osiyana? Ambiri bwino cholinga komanso kuthamanga zatsopano, nkhawa n'loonadi kunja ndi chovuta kuti akambirane. Kale, kutsutsana izi za unali woyenerera kunja anali pafupipafupi monga gulu la anthu atakhala mu chipinda kuyesera kuganizira zimene Chikanachitika nchiyani ngati njira zinachitidwa mwa njira ina, kapena mu malo osiyana, kapena ndi anthu osiyana. Mwamwayi, m'badwo digito chimathandiza ofufuza kusuntha yoposa izi m'maganizo data-ufulu adziwe n'loonadi kunja empirically.

Chifukwa zotsatira kuchokera Schultz et al. (2007) anali zosangalatsa, kampani wotchedwa Opower partnered ndi zofunikira mu United States atumiza mankhwala more ambiri. Yochokera pa ndondomeko ya Schultz et al. (2007) , Opower Kulengedwa makonda Home Energy Malipoti amene anali zigawo ziwiri zazikulu, mmodzi chosonyeza banja wachibale wakagwiritsidwe magetsi anansi ake ndi emoticon ndi chimodzi kupereka malangizo kwa kutsitsa wakagwiritsidwe mphamvu (Chithunzi 4.6). Ndiye, mu mgwirizano ndi ofufuza Opower anathamanga osapanganika zatsopano kuwunika mphamvu ya Home Energy Malipoti. Ngakhale chithandizo mu zatsopano amenewa ambiri anaperekedwa mwakuthupi, zambiri mwa wakale achikale nkhono makalata-zotsatira anali anayeza ntchito zipangizo digito mu dziko thupi (mwachitsanzo, meters mphamvu). Osati pamanja kutolera mfundo imeneyi ndi ogwira kafukufuku kuyendera nyumba iliyonse, ndi zatsopano Opower onse anachita mu mgwirizano ndi makampani mphamvu kuwapangitsa ofufuza za kulumikiza kuwerenga mphamvu. Choncho, awa pang'ono digito munda zatsopano anali kuthamanga pa sikelo chachikulu pa mtengo wotsika variable.

Chithunzi 4.6: The Home Energy Nkhani Allcott (2011) anali Social Kuyerekezera gawo ndi ZOCHITA gawo.

Mu akonzedwa loyamba la zatsopano zokhudza mabanja 600,000 anatumikira m'magulu zofunikira 10 kuzungulira United States, Allcott (2011) anapeza Energy Report Home adatchithisira mowa magetsi ndi 1.7%. M'mawu ena, zotsatira kuchokera yaikulu kuphunzira zambiri m'mayiko osiyanasiyana anali qualitatively ofanana ndi zotsatira kuchokera Schultz et al. (2007) . Koma, zotsatira kukula anali ang'onoang'ono: mu Schultz et al. (2007) la nyumba ya ofotokoza ndi injective malamulo chikhalidwe (munthu emoticon a) yafupika wakagwiritsidwe awo magetsi ndi 5%. Chifukwa lenileni kusiyana ndi osadziwika, koma Allcott (2011) ankati kulandira emoticon pamanja monga mbali ya kuphunzira yokonzedwa ndi yunivesite zingakhale ndi zotsatira zikuluzikulu pa khalidwe kuposa kulandira emoticon kusindikizidwa mbali ya misa opangidwa lipoti ku mphamvu kampani.

Komanso kafukufuku wotsatira, Allcott (2015) mbiri zina 101 zatsopano zokhudza zina miliyoni 8 mabanja. Mu yotsatira zatsopano 101 Energy Report Home anapitiriza chifukwa anthu kuchepetsa mowa wawo magetsi, koma zotsatira zinali ngakhale ang'onoang'ono. Chifukwa lenileni kusachezera Sizikudziwika, koma Allcott (2015) ankati mphamvu ya Lipoti anaonekera kuti kuchepekela pa nthawi chifukwa anali kwenikweni kuti ntchito kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya ophunzira. Komanso mwapadera, zofunikira mu madera okhala nthawi zambiri amatengera pulogalamu kale ndi makasitomala awo anali kumva mankhwala. Monga zofunikira ndi makasitomala zochepa chilengedwe anatengera mwambowu, nchito zake anaonekera kutha. Choncho, monga randomization kafukufuku wawo amaonetsetsa kuti mankhwala ndi ulamuliro gulu nzofanana randomization mu malo kafukufuku zipangitsa kuti Ziwerengero akhoza zowombetsa mkota ku gulu lina la ophunzira kuti anthu more ambiri (kumbuyo kwa Chapter 3 zosankhidwazi). Ngati malo kafukufuku si mumtengo mosintha, ndiye generalization ngakhale ku mwangwiro cholinga ndi kumulondolera kuyesera ingakhale mabvuto.

Zonsezi pamodzi zatsopano-10 111 mu Allcott (2011) ndi 101 mu Allcott (2015) -involved miliyoni 8.5 mabanja wonse wa United States. Iwo zonse kusonyeza kuti Malipoti Home Energy kuchepetsa mowa ambiri magetsi, chifukwa zothandiza apeza original wa Schultz ndi anzake m'nyumba 300 California. Beyond kugawikana basi zotsatira yokalambayo, kupitiriza zatsopano komanso kusonyeza kuti ukulu mmene zimakhala ndi malo. anapereka lino la zinthu zatsopano komanso zikusonyeza mfundo awiri ambiri za zatsopano pang'ono digito kumunda. Choyamba, akatswiri adzatha empirically adiresi nkhawa n'loonadi akunja pamene mtengo wa kuthamanga zatsopano zachepa, ndipo zimenezi zingachitikire ngati zotsatira za kale anayeza ndi nthawizonse pa deta dongosolo. Choncho, izo zikusonyeza kuti kafukufuku ayenera tione kunja kwa ena makhalidwe chidwi ndi zofunika kuti ayamba kale olembedwa, ndiyeno kupanga zatsopano pamwamba pa chingwe zomangamanga izi alipo. Chachiwiri, izi ya zatsopano akutikumbutsa kuti digito munda zatsopano si Intaneti; kwambiri ndimayembekezera kuti adzakhala kulikonse ndi zakambidwa ambiri kuwayeza masensa mu malo anamanga.

The amitundu inayi n'loonadi-zowerengera mapeto n'loonadi, n'loonadi mkati, kumanga n'loonadi, kunja n'loonadi-kupereka mndandanda maganizo kuthandiza ofufuza kuona ngati zotsatira kuchokera kafukufuku makamaka kuthandizira mapeto ambiri. Poyerekeza zatsopano analogi m'badwo, mu zatsopano digito m'badwo zikhale zosavuta kuti akonze n'loonadi kunja empirically ndipo izo ziyenera kukhala kosavuta kuonetsetsa n'loonadi mkati. Komano, nkhani ya kumanga n'loonadi mwina zingakhale zovuta zambiri zatsopano digito m'badwo (ngakhale kuti sizinali choncho ndi zatsopano Opower).