4.4.3 zimagwirira

Zimene kudziwa zimene zinachitika. Njira kufotokoza chifukwa ndi m'mene zinachitikira.

The yachitatu yothandiza mfundo kusuntha yoposa zatsopano n'zakuti njira. Zimagwirira ife chifukwa kapena mankhwala anayambitsa gwero. The ndondomeko ya kufunafuna njira Nthawi zina zotchedwa kufunafuna kanthu zosintha kapena zigwilizane zosintha. Ngakhale zatsopano zabwino kuyerekeza zotsatira causal, nthawi zambiri si choti anaulula njira. Intaneti zaka zatsopano zingatithandize kudziwa njira m'njira ziwiri: 1) iwo zimatithandiza kusonkhanitsa deta more ndondomeko ndi 2) zimatithandiza kuyesa mankhwala ena okhudza.

Chifukwa njira ndi lachinyengo kufotokoza yokhala (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , ine ndiyamba ndi chitsanzo losavuta: limes ndi chiseyeye (Gerber and Green 2012) . M'zaka za m'ma 18 madokotala anali ndi wabwino ndithu kuti pamene oyendetsa anadya limes iwo sanamvetse chiseyeye. Chiseyeye ndi matenda oopsa izi zinali zamphamvu zambiri. Koma, madokotala amenewa sanali kudziwa chifukwa limes kupewedwa chiseyeye. Kunali 1932, pafupifupi zaka 200, asayansi akhoza molondola kusonyeza kuti vitamini C chifukwa chakuti laimu kupewedwa chiseyeye (Carpenter 1988, p 191) . Pankhaniyi, vitamini C ndi limagwirira mwa amene limes kupewa chiseyeye (Chithunzi 4.9). Kumene, akudzizindikiritsa limagwirira n'kofunika kwambiri mwasayansi-zambiri sayansi za chifukwa chimene zinthu zimachitika. Kudzizindikiritsa njira n'kofunika kwambiri pafupifupi. Tikamvetsa chifukwa mankhwala ntchito, ife ikhoza kukhala mankhwala atsopano kuti ntchito bwino.

Kuzilingalira 4.9: Limes kupewa chiseyeye ndi limagwirira ndi Vitamini C.

Mwatsoka, kukhala njira zovuta. Mosiyana limes ndi chiseyeye, pamalo osiyanasiyana chikhalidwe, mankhwala mwina ntchito mwa njira zambiri zogwirizana zimene kudzipatula njira yovuta kwambiri. Komabe, mu nkhani ya malamulo chikhalidwe ndi ntchito mphamvu, ofufuza anayesa kupeza njira mwa deta ndondomeko ndi zosowa chithandizo zokhudzana.

Njira imodzi kuyesa njira zotheka ndi kusonkhanitsa ndondomeko deta mmene mankhwala mwapeza njira zotheka. Mwachitsanzo, kumbukirani kuti Allcott (2011) anasonyeza kuti Home Energy Malipoti anachititsa anthu kuchepetsa wakagwiritsidwe awo magetsi. Koma, kodi nkhani zimenezi wakagwiritsidwe m'munsi magetsi? Kodi zimagwirira? Mu phunziro malangizo, Allcott and Rogers (2014) partnered ndi kampani mphamvu kuti, kudzera pulogalamu rebate, anapeza mfundo yomwe ogula akweza zipangizo zawo zitsanzo zina magetsi. Allcott and Rogers (2014) anapeza kuti pang'ono more anthu akulandira Home Energy Malipoti akweza zipangizo zawo. Koma, kusiyana anali ochepa kwambiri moti zinangokhala chifukwa cha 2% ya kuchepa ntchito mphamvu kholo ankachitira. M'mawu ena, chiwiya chilichonse chamagetsi kukweza sanali limagwirira lalikulu imene Energy Report Home utachepa mowa magetsi.

Njira yachiwiri kuphunzira njira ndi kuthamanga choti Mabaibulo osiyanasiyana pang'ono za mankhwala. Mwachitsanzo, kuyesa kwa Schultz et al. (2007) ndipo onse wotsatira Home Energy Report zatsopano, ophunzira anapatsidwa mankhwala ali mbali ziwiri zazikulu 1) nsonga za ndalama mphamvu ndi 2) zokhudza ntchito mphamvu zawo wachibale kwa anzawo (Chithunzi 4.6). Choncho, n'zotheka kuti mphamvu zopulumutsa nsonga ndi zimene zinachititsa kusintha, osati mfundo za anzawo. Kuwunika n'zotheka kuti nsonga yekha akhoza zinalinso zokwanira, Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) partnered ndi kampani madzi pafupi Atlanta, GA, nathamanga kafukufuku ogwirizana ndi kusamala madzi yokhudza za 100,000 mabanja. Panali zinthu zinayi:

• gulu limene analandira malangizo pa kupulumutsa madzi.
• gulu limene analandira malangizo pa kupulumutsa madzi + pempho makhalidwe kupulumutsa madzi.
• gulu limene analandira malangizo pa kupulumutsa madzi + pempho makhalidwe kupulumutsa madzi + zokhudza ntchito madzi wachibale kwa anzawo.
• ulamuliro gulu.

Ofufuzawa apeza kuti nsonga mankhwala okha analibe mphamvu pa zakagwiritsidwe madzi yochepa (chaka chimodzi), sing'anga (chaka awiri), ndipo yaitali (zaka zitatu) Mawu. Nsonga + pempho mankhwala anachititsa ophunzira kuti ndichepe wakagwiritsidwe madzi, koma mu nthawi yochepa. Pomaliza, nsonga + pempho + anzawo mudziwe mankhwala anachititsa utachepa wakagwiritsidwe kwa kanthawi, sing'anga, ndi Pomalizira (Chithunzi 4.10). Izi mitundu ya zatsopano ndi mankhwala unbundled ndi njira yabwino kulingalira mbali ya mankhwala kapena mbali pamodzi ndi amene ali kuchititsa zotsatira (Gerber and Green 2012, Sec. 10.6) . Mwachitsanzo, kuyesa kwa Ferraro ndi anzake akutionesa kuti madzi kupulumutsiramo nsonga yekha kosakwanira kuti ndichepe wakagwiritsidwe madzi.

Chithunzi 4,10: Results ku Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . Mankhwala anatumizidwa May 21, 2007, ndipo zotsatira Anayesa pa m'chilimwe cha 2007, 2008, ndi 2009. Mwa unbundling mankhwala ofufuza ankafuna kukhala bwino tanthauzo la zimagwirira. Nsonga mankhwala okhawo anali kwenikweni zopanda phindu kwa kanthawi (chaka chimodzi), sing'anga (zaka ziwiri), ndipo yaitali (zaka zitatu) Mawu. Nsonga + pempho mankhwala anachititsa ophunzira kuti ndichepe wakagwiritsidwe madzi, koma mu nthawi yochepa. Malangizo + pempho + anzawo mankhwala mudziwe anachititsa ophunzira kuti ndichepe wakagwiritsidwe madzi yochepa, sing'anga, ndipo yaitali. mipiringidzo ofukula akuti intervals chidaliro. Onani Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) zipangizo kwenikweni kuphunzira.

Choncho, munthu kusuntha kupitirira layering zigawo zikuluzikulu (nsonga; nsonga + ndikaonekere; nsonga + pempho + mfundo za anzawo) kuti munthu factorial kapangidwe-nthawi zina amatchedwa \ (2 ^ K \) factorial kapangidwe-aliyense kuphatikiza zotheka kwa zinthu zitatu mayesero (Table 4.1). Ndi kumuyesa uliwonse kuphatikiza zotheka zigawo zikuluzikulu, ofufuza ingathandize ganizilani mmene aliyense chigawo kudzipatula ndi osakaniza. Mwachitsanzo, kuyesa kwa Ferraro ndi anzake silinena ngati anzanu poyerekeza yekha zinalinso zokwanira kutsogolera kusintha Pomalizira khalidwe. Kale, izi zonse zojambula factorial anavutika kuthamanga chifukwa amafuna ambiri ophunzira ndipo amafuna ofufuza kuti athe ndendende kulamulira ndi kupulumutsa ambiri mankhwala. Koma, m'badwo digito amachotsa zopinga izi panali zinthu zina.

Mwachidule, zimagwirira-m'mbali mwa amene mankhwala atakhala ndi zotsatira-ndi amazipanga zofunika. Intaneti zaka zatsopano zingathandize akatswiri kuphunzira za njira ndi 1) kusonkhanitsa ndondomeko deta ndi 2) kuwapangitsa zonse zojambula factorial. The njira mawu njira amenewa ndiye anayesedwa mwachindunji ndi kuyesa mwapadera kuti ayese njira (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

Okwana atatu awa mfundo-n'loonadi; heterogeneity wa zotsatira chithandizo; ndi njira-kupereka mphamvu ya maganizo angagwiritse akutanthauzira zatsopano. Awa mfundo thandizo ofufuza kusuntha yoposa zatsopano yosavuta zimene "ntchito" kuti zatsopano watanthauzo kuti ndi kulumikizana molimbira kuti chiphunzitso, kuti awulule kumene ndipo n'chifukwa mankhwala ntchito, ndipo mwina kuthandiza akatswiri kupanga mankhwala aluso. Popeza ichi maziko mwacilamulo za zatsopano, ine tsopano mutembenukire mmene mungagwiritsire kwenikweni zatsopano wanu zichitike.