2.4.2 kulosera ndi nowcasting

Akuneneratu zam'tsogolo ndi zovuta, koma kunenera lino n'kosavuta.

The yachiwiri yaikulu strategy ntchito ndi akatswiri deta taona ndi yotani. Akuneneratu zam'tsogolo ndi otchuka ndi zovuta, koma n'zotheka amazipanga kofunika kuti angachite, kaya amagwira ntchito ku makampani kapena kuti maboma.

Kleinberg et al. (2015) amapereka nkhani ziwiri zimene kulongosola bwino kufunika kulosera mavuto ena policy. Tangoganizani wina wopanga malamulo, Ndiyimbanso Anna wake, amene akukumana ndi chilala ndi angasankhe ganyu Ula kuchita dansi mvula kuwonjezera mwayi mvula. wopanga wina policy, ine amamutcha Bob, angasankhe kutenga ambulera ntchito kupewa chonyowa pa njira kunyumba. Onse Anna ndi Bob akhoza kusankha bwino ngati kumvetsa nyengo, koma ayenera kudziwa zinthu zosiyanasiyana. Anna ayenera kudziwa ngati gule mvula amachititsa mvula. Bob, Komano, sayenera osamvetsa kanthu za causality; iye basi amafunika Mapa molondola. Akatswiri Social amangofuna zimene Kleinberg et al. (2015) adzaitana "mvula kuvina ngati" ndondomeko mavuto amene kuganizira causality-ndipo amanyalanyaza "ambulera ngati" mavuto policy kuti kwambiri za kulosera.

Ndikufuna kulunjika Komabe, pa wapadera kulosera wotchedwa nowcasting kutanthauza akuti anachokera ku kaphatikizidwe "tsopano" ndi "kulosera." M'malo akuneneratu m'tsogolo, nowcasting ankafuna kulosera lino (Choi and Varian 2012) . M'mawu ena, nowcasting amagwiritsa ntchito njira kulosera mavuto a kayesedwe. Mwaichi, angathandize kwambiri kuti maboma amene amafuna miyezo yake molondola za mayiko awo. Nowcasting Chitsanzo bwino kwambiri ndi chitsanzo cha Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends.

Tayerekezani kuti kumverera pang'ono pansi pa nyengo kotero inu kutayipa "chimfine azitsamba" mu kufufuza injini, kulandira tsamba la olumikizirana Poyankha, ndiye kutsatira mmodzi wa iwo kwa patsambali zothandiza. Tsopano angafune ntchitoyi inkaimbidwa kuchokera pa kaonedwe wa search engine. Mphindi iliyonse, anthu mamiliyoni mafunso ali kufika padziko lonse, ndi mtsinje wa mafunso-zimene Battelle (2006) wasonkhanitsa ndi "Nawonso achichepere zolinga" - amapereka zenera zonse kusinthidwa mu gulu chikumbumtima lonse. Komabe, kutembenukira mtsinje wa zinthu pa muyeso wa kuchuluka kwa chimfine ndi zovuta. Mwachidule kuwerenga kuchuluka kwa mafunso kuti "mankhwala chimfine" sizingathandize bwino. Siyense amene amafufuza chimfine cha mankhwala chimfine si aliyense amene chopeza kwa mankhwala chimfine ali ndi chimfine.

The zofunika ndi wochenjera tsenga kumbuyo Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends anali kutembenukira vuto muyeso mu vuto kulosera. The Malo US kwa matenda (CDC) ali ndi fuluwenza polojekiti kuti amatenga mfundo madokotala kuzungulira dziko. Komabe, vuto limodzi ndi dongosolo CDC ndi pali sabata ziwiri malipoti kwanthawi; nthawi zimatengera kwa deta zofika madokotala kulitsuka, kukonzedwa, ndi lofalitsidwa. Koma, pogwiritsa mliri akutulukira, maofesi a zaumoyo sindikufuna kudziwa fuluwenza panali masabata awiri apitawo; akufuna kudziwa fuluwenza pali pakali pano. Ndipotu ena malo ambiri chikhalidwe deta chikhalidwe, pali mipata pakati pa mafunde za kusonkhanitsa deta ndi malipoti lags. Ambiri lalikulu magwero deta Komano, nthawi zonse pa (Ndime 2.3.1.2).

Choncho, Jeremy Ginsberg ndi anzake (2009) akuyesa kulosera za CDC chimfine kafukufuku deta kufufuza Google. Ichi ndi chitsanzo cha "akuneneratu panopa" chifukwa ofufuza enzopangwa kuyeza kuchuluka chimfine pali tsopano ndi akuneneratu deta tsogolo kwa CDC, deta m'tsogolo kuti chikuyeza lino. Ntchito kuphunzira makina, iwo anafufuza mawu miliyoni 50 kufufuza kuti aone ambiri predictive deta ya CDC chimfine. Pamapeto pake, iwo anapeza ya 45 mafunso osiyanasiyana amene ankaoneka kuti ambiri predictive, ndipo zotsatira zake zinali zabwino ndithu: zingawathandize deta kufufuza kulosera deta CDC. Zochokera ku mbali pa pepala ili, limene linasindikizidwa mu Nature, Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends anakhala mobwerezabwereza bwino nkhani za mphamvu ya deta lalikulu.

Pali caveats ziwiri zofunika bwino anzake Komabe, ndi kumvetsa caveats zimenezi kudzakuthandizani kuunikira ndi chiyani kulosera ndi nowcasting. Choyamba, ntchitoyo Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends anali kwenikweni osati kuposa losavuta chitsanzo kuti pafupifupi kuchuluka kwa chimfine zochokera extrapolation liniya kwa awiri miyezo posachedwa cha kuwanda chimfine (Goel et al. 2010) . Ndipo, pa nthawi zina nthawi Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends anali kwenikweni woipa kuposa izi njira yosavuta (Lazer et al. 2014) . M'mawu ena, Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends deta zake zonse, kuphunzira makina, ndi kompyuta wamphamvu sanali kwambiri amakhoza bwino kuposa losavuta, ndi losavuta kumvetsa heuristic. Zimenezi zikusonyeza kuti pamene mumayesto Mapa kapena nowcast n'kofunika kuyerekeza motsutsana ziriri a.

Zofunika chenjezo lachiwiri Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends kuti mphamvu yake kuneneratu CDC chimfine deta anali sachedwa kulephera zing'onozing'ono yaitali kuwola chifukwa cha kulowerera ndi algorithmic kuthetsa nzeru. Mwachitsanzo, mu 2009 nkhumba Matenda a Chimfine mliri Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends kwambiri pa-akuti kuchuluka kwa fuluwenza, mwina chifukwa anthu zimasintha kufufuza makhalidwe awo poyankha mantha anthu ambiri a mliri lonse (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . Kuwonjezera pa mavuto amenewa yochepa, ntchito pang'onopang'ono lawola nthawi. Vuto ndi zifukwa akuti kuwola yaitali ndi zovuta chifukwa ma aligorivimu kufufuza Google ndi kampani, koma zikuoneka kuti 2011 Google anasintha kuti ndinganene mawu zokhudzana kufufuza anthu kufufuza zizindikiro ngati "kutentha thupi" ndi "chifuwa" (izo Zikuonekanso mbali imeneyi ili salinso yogwira). Kuwonjezera Mbali imeneyi ndi chinthu kwathunthu zomveka ngati inu akuthamanga ntchito yofunafuna injini, ndipo chinali ndi zotsatira za kupoletsa thanzi Zofufuza kwambiri. Mwina bwino ntchito, koma zinapangitsa Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends kwa kuchuluka pa wokha chimfine (Lazer et al. 2014) .

Mwamwayi, mavuto amenewa ndi Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends ndi fixable. Ndipotu pogwiritsa ntchito njira mosamala kwambiri, Lazer et al. (2014) ndi Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) anali kupeza bwino. Kupita kutsogolo, ndimayembekezera kuti maphunziro nowcasting kuti kuphatikiza deta lalikulu ndi kafukufuku adziŵe kuti kuphatikiza Duchamp wamasiku Readymades ndi Michaelangelo wamasiku Custommades-zidzathandiza amakhazikitsa malamulo kubala mofulumira ndi zolondola miyezo ya lino ndi zolosera za m'tsogolo.