3.4.3 Non-Mwina zitsanzo: chitsanzo yofananira

Si onse zitsanzo sanali Mwina ndi yemweyo. Tikhoza kuwonjezera ulamuliro kwambiri pa mapeto kutsogolo.

Njira Wang ndi anzake ntchito chaka chotsatira cha 2012 US Pulezident kunkadalira pa patsogolo kusanthulidwe ka deta. Ndiko kuti, iwo anasonkhana mayankho ambiri oipa ndipo anayesa kuti adzathe kulemera iwo. A strategy wowonjezera ntchito ndi anthu amene sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi ndi kudziletsa kwambiri pa ndondomeko zosonkhanitsira deta.

Chitsanzo chosavuta cha pang'ono ankalamulira sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi ndondomeko ndi kuumba zosankhidwazi, njira kuti amabwerera masiku oyambirira a kafukufuku kafukufuku. Mu kuumba zosankhidwazi, ofufuza kugawanitsa anthu m'magulu osiyana (mwachitsanzo, anyamata, atsikana, etc) ndi quotas ndiye anapereka chiwerengero cha anthu kusankhidwa mu gulu lirilonse. Anafunsidwa amasankhidwa m'njira kochitika mwachisawawa mpaka kafukufuku wa wakumana kuumba mu gulu lirilonse. Chifukwa cha quotas, ndi chitsanzo chifukwa Zikungokhala ngati chandamale anthu kuposa zingatheke mwinamwake, koma chifukwa ziyerekezo likhale sakudziwika akatswiri ambiri kukayikira kuumba zosankhidwazi. Ndipotu, kuumba zosankhidwazi anali chifukwa cha "Dewey kulephera Truman" mphulupulu mu 1948 kafukufuku US pulezidenti. Chifukwa amapereka ulamuliro pa ndondomeko zosankhidwazi Komabe, sakhoza kuona mmene kuumba zosankhidwazi mwina ndi ubwino pa zosonkhanitsira deta kusalankhula kwathunthu.

Kupita kuseri kuumba zosankhidwazi, njira zamakono kwambiri kulamulira sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi ndondomeko ndi wotheka. Mmodzi njira zimenezi amatchedwa chitsanzo yofananira, ndipo ena anagwiritsa ntchito malonda Intaneti wosamalira gulu. Maonekedwe losavuta chitsanzo yofananira amafuna deta awiri magwero: 1) m'kaundula wonse wa anthu ndi 2) a gulu lalikulu la anthu ongodzipereka. Nkofunika kuti anthuwo safuna kukhala Mwina chitsanzo kwa anthu iliyonse; kutsindika kuti palibe zofunika kusankha mu gulu, ine icho ndi gulu zauve. Ndiponso, anthu m'kaundula ndi gulu zauve kuyenera kuphatikizapo zina wothandiza za munthu aliyense, muchisanzo chimenechi, ine kuganizira msinkhu ndi kugonana, koma zinthu amawaganizira zimenezi wothandiza angakhale zambiri mwatsatanetsatane. The tsenga la chitsanzo yofananira ndi kusankha zitsanzo ku gulu yakuda mu njira imene imatulutsa zitsanzo zimenezi zikuoneka ngati zitsanzo Mwina.

Zitsanzo yofananira akuyamba pamene yoyerekeza Mwina chitsanzo latengedwa m'kaundula anthu; ichi chitsanzo yoyerekeza amakhala chandamale chitsanzo. Kenako, malinga ndi zomwe wothandiza, milandu ya chandamale nyemba ndi chikufanana ndi anthu gulu zauve kupanga chitsanzo chikufanana. Mwachitsanzo, ngati pali 25 chaka chimodzi yaikazi chandamale chitsanzo, ndiye kafukufuku wina wapeza mkazi 25 chaka chimodzi ku gulu zauve kukhala chitsanzo chikufanana. Pomaliza, anthu a chitsanzo chikufanana ndi anacheza kubala kuika chomaliza amene anafunsidwa.

Ngakhale chitsanzo chikufanana zikuwoneka ngati chandamale chitsanzo, nkofunika kukumbukira kuti chitsanzo chikufanana si Mwina chitsanzo. zitsanzo chikufanana zitha zikufanana ndi chandamale chitsanzo pa nkhani kudziwika wothandiza (mwachitsanzo, msinkhu ndi kugonana), koma osati makhalidwe unmeasured. Mwachitsanzo, ngati anthu pa gulu zauve amakhala osauka-pambuyo pa zonse, chifukwa chimodzi kuti agwirizane ndi gulu kafukufuku ndi ndalama ndiye ngakhale chitsanzo chikufanana zikuwoneka ngati chandamale chitsanzo mawu a msinkhu ndi kugonana komabe ali ndi kukondera kwa anthu osauka. Matsenga woona Mwina zosankhidwazi ndi kulamulira mavuto pa makhalidwe onse anayeza ndi unmeasured (a mfundo mogwirizana ndi kukambirana zofanana kwa causal kumasulira kwa maphunziro taona mu Chapter 2).

Zochita chitsanzo yofananira kukhala ndi lalikulu ndi osiyanasiyana gulu wofunitsitsa kuti amalize kafukufuku, kotero makamaka mwachita ndi makampani kuti angakwanitse kukhala ndi kukhala ndi gulu zimenezi. Komanso, mu kuchita, sipangakhale mavuto ndi yofananira (nthawi zina osayenerana wina chandamale chitsanzo kulibe pa gulu) ndipo si yankho (nthawi zina anthu chitsanzo chikufanana amakana kuchita nawo kafukufukuyu). Choncho, mu kuchita, ofufuza kuchita chitsanzo yofananira mundisonyeze mtundu wa kusintha pambuyo stratification kuti anene.

N'zovuta kupereka zothandiza chimatsimikizira ongolankhula za chitsanzo yofananira, komabe iwo sangathe kuchita bwino. Mwachitsanzo, Stephen Ansolabehere ndi Brian Schaffner (2014) poyerekeza Kafukufuku atatu yomweyi anthu pafupifupi 1,000 amachitika 2010 ntchito atatu osiyana zosankhidwazi ndi kufunsira njira: mail, telefoni, ndi gulu Internet ntchito chitsanzo yofananira ndi kusintha pambuyo stratification. The ziwerengero za njira zitatu zinali zofanana kwambiri ndi ziwerengero za benchmarks apamwamba monga Population Current Survey (CPS) ndi National Health Kucheza Survey (NHIS). Komanso mwapadera, Intaneti ndi makalata Kafukufuku onse anali bwino ndi avareji mfundo kuchuluka 3 ndi kafukufuku foni anali bwino ndi mfundo kuchuluka 4. Zolakwa zazikulu pafupifupi zimene anthu amayembekezera zitsanzo za anthu pafupifupi 1,000. Ngakhale palibe modes izi opangidwa deta zayamba bwino, onse Internet ndi foni kafukufuku (amene anatenga masiku kapena milungu) anali zayamba mofulumira kumunda kuposa kafukufuku makalata (amene anatenga miyezi isanu), ndi kafukufuku Intaneti ntchito chitsanzo yofananira, zodula kuposa modes ena awiri.

Pomaliza, asayansi chikhalidwe ndi statisticians ndi amazipanga kukayikira inferences kanthu zitsanzo sanali Mwina, chakuti iwo ali oyanjana ndi zina zolephera manyazi kafukufuku kafukufuku monga kafukufuku zolembalemba Digest. Mbali Ndimagwirizana ndi kukayikira izi: unadjusted zitsanzo sanali Mwina mukuona kuti apange ziwerengero zoipa. Komabe, ngati akatswiri akhoza kusintha kwa biases m'kati zosankhidwazi (mwachitsanzo, pambuyo stratification) kapena kulamulira ndondomeko zosankhidwazi penapake (mwachitsanzo, nyemba yofananira), iwo zingabweretse ziwerengero bwino, ngakhale akuti khalidwe zokwanira zolinga kwambiri. Kumene, zingakhale bwino kuchita mwangwiro anaphedwa Mwina zosankhidwazi, koma kuti salinso Zikuoneka kuti munthu kwanzeru.

Onse osakhala Mwina zitsanzo ndi zitsanzo Mwina zosiyanasiyana khalidwe lawo, ndipo panopa zikuoneka choncho kuti ziwerengero kwambiri ndi zitsanzo Mwina ali wokhulupirika kuposa ziwerengero za zitsanzo sanali Mwina. Koma ngakhale tsopano, ziwerengero za bwino limakhala zitsanzo sanali Mwina mwina kuposa ziwerengero za zitsanzo bwino limakhala Mwina. Komanso, si Mwina zitsanzo ndi zayamba mtengo. Choncho, zikuoneka kuti Mwina vs sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi amapereka ndalama kwambiri malonda pa (Chithunzi 3.6). Poganizira, ndimayembekezera kuti ziwerengero za bwino anachita zitsanzo sanali Mwina adzakhala mtengo ndiponso bwino. Komanso, chifukwa cha kuwonongedwa fomu foni landline ndi kuwonjezeka chiwerengero cha sanali Poyankha, ndimayembekezera kuti Mwina zitsanzo adzakhala zodula ndi khalidwe m'munsi. Chifukwa mumaganiza awa nthawi yaitali, ine ndikuganiza kuti sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi adzakhala zofunika kwambiri mu nthawi yachitatu ya kafukufuku kafukufuku.

Chithunzi 3.6: Mwina zosankhidwazi kuchita ndipo sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi ndi yaikulu, sakanikira siyana. Ambiri, pali mtengo-zolakwa malonda pa anthu omwe si Mwina zosankhidwazi kukhala m'munsi mtengo koma zolakwa apamwamba. Koma bwino anachita sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi zingabweretse ziwerengero kuposa bwino-anachita Mwina zosankhidwazi. M'tsogolo, ndimayembekezera kuti sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi adzakhala bwino ndi mtengo pamene Mwina zosankhidwazi aziwonjezereka ndi wokwera mtengo.