3.4.2 Non-Mwina zitsanzo: weighting

Ndi zitsanzo sanali Mwina, zolemera adzathetsa chinyengo chifukwa cha ankaganiza zosankhidwazi ndondomeko.

Mu njira yomweyo imene ofufuza kulemera mayankho kuchokera zitsanzo Mwina, iwo akhoza kulemera mayankho kuchokera zitsanzo sanali Mwina. Mwachitsanzo, m'malo mophunzitsa CPS muganizire kuti anaika malonda mbendera pa zikwi Websites yosankha ophunzira kuti kafukufuku chaka mlingo ulova. Mwachibadwa, inu kwenikweni kuti mophweka zikutanthauza wa nyemba zanu zingakhale kudzitamandira wabwino wa mlingo wa ulova. nkhawa mwina chifukwa mukuganiza kuti anthu ena amakhala ndi kumaliza kafukufuku wanu kuposa ena. Mwachitsanzo, anthu amene si kuwononga nthawi pa intaneti ndi zokayikitsa kuti amalize kafukufuku wanu.

Monga tinaonera gawo lotsiriza Koma ngati tingathe chitsanzo anasankhidwa monga timachita ndi Mwina zitsanzo ndiye ife adzathetsa chinyengo chifukwa cha njira zochepa chabe pamalangizo. Mwatsoka, pamene akugwira ntchito zitsanzo sanali Mwina, ife sitikudziwa momwe chitsanzo linasankhidwa. Koma, tingapange mfundo za ndondomeko zosankhidwazi ndiyeno ntchito weighting chimodzimodzi. Ngati mfundo zimenezi zili zoona, ndiye weighting adzathetsa chinyengo chifukwa ndondomeko zosankhidwazi.

Tiyerekeze kuti poyankha malonda anu mbendera, inu alemba ntchito 100,000 anafunsidwa. Koma inu simukukhulupirira kuti izi anafunsidwa 100,000 ndi zosavuta mwachisawawa chitsanzo cha achikulire American. Ndipotu mukuziyenereza anafunsidwa wanu ndi anthu US, inu mudzapeza kuti anthu ena limati (mwachitsanzo, New York) anthu pa ntchito kuimira ndi kuti ena limati (mwachitsanzo, Alaska) ndi pansi, zimaimira. Choncho, mlingo ulova wa nyemba zanu angakhale kudzitamandira zoipa za mlingo ulova kwa anthu chandamale.

Njira imodzi yosintha kupotozedwa kuti chinachitika mu ndondomeko zosankhidwazi ndi Ndinapereka kulemera kwa munthu aliyense; zolemera m'munsi anthu ku madera amene pa-akuimira mu nyemba (mwachitsanzo, New York) ndi zolemera apamwamba anthu ku madera amene pansi, zimaimira mu nyemba (mwachitsanzo, Alaska). Komanso mwapadera, kulemera kwa aliyense woyankha ndi wachibale kuchuluka awo chitsanzo wachibale wanu kuwanda awo anthu US. Njirayi weighting amatchedwa pambuyo stratification, ndi lingaliro la masekeli ayenera kukumbukira inu chitsanzo m'gawo 3.4.1 pamene anafunsidwa ku Rhode Island anapatsidwa zochepa kulemera kuposa anafunsidwa ku California. Post-stratification amafuna kuti zokwanira kuika anafunsidwa wanu m'magulu ndi kudziwa chiwerengero cha anthu chandamale mu gulu lirilonse.

Ngakhale weighting wa nyemba Mwina ndi chitsanzo sanali Mwina ndi mwamasamu yemweyo (Onani zowonjezera luso), iwo bwino pa nkhani zosiyanasiyana. Ngati kafukufuku ali wangwiro Mwina nyemba (ie, palibe kulakwa Kuphunzira ndipo palibe sanali response), ndiye weighting udzabala ziwerengero osakondera makhalidwe onse nthawi zonse. Wamphamvu ameneyu ongolankhula chitsimikizo chake kumbali ya zitsanzo Mwina nakawapeza atero wokongola. Komano, weighting zitsanzo sanali Mwina kokha kubala ziwerengero osakondera makhalidwe onse ngati yankho propensities ali chimodzimodzi kwa aliyense mu gulu lirilonse. M'mawu ena, kuganiza ku chitsanzo chathu, ntchito pambuyo stratification udzabala ziwerengero osakondera ngati aliyense mu New York ali Mwina chomwecho pa ntchito ndi aliyense mu Alaska ali Mwina womwewo nawo ndi zina zotero. Kopanda akutchedwa homogeneous-mayankho-propensities-mwake magulu kopanda, ndipo ali ndi mbali yaikulu kudziwa ngati pambuyo stratification ntchito bwino zitsanzo sanali Mwina.

Mwatsoka, chitsanzo chathu, homogeneous-mayankho-propensities-mwake magulu kopanda N'zokayikitsa kuti ndi zoona. Ndiko kuti, N'zokayikitsa kuti aliyense mu Alaska ali Mwina chimodzimodzi kukhala mu kafukufuku wako. Koma, pali mfundo zitatu zofunika kukumbukira za pambuyo stratification, zomwe kuoneka kwambiri zingamuthandize.

Choyamba, homogeneous-mayankho-propensities-mwake magulu kopanda umakhala ndithu chiwerengero cha magulu umachuluka. Ndipo, ofufuza satanthauza kuti magulu basi zochokera limodzi gawo malo. Mwachitsanzo, tikhoza kukhazikitsa magulu zochokera boma, zaka, kugonana, ndi mlingo wa maphunziro. Zikuoneka zambiri ndithu kuti pali homogeneous Poyankha propensities mwa gulu la 18-29, ophunzirawo wamkazi, koleji tikukhala mu Alaska kuposa mwa gulu la anthu onse okhala mu Alaska. Choncho, chiwerengero cha magulu ntchito ukuwonjezeka pambuyo stratification, ndi mfundo zofunika kuti akathandize kukhala wololera. Popeza mfundo imeneyi, zikuoneka ngati akatswiri angafune kuti akonze nambala yaikulu magulu chifukwa pambuyo stratification. Koma, chiwerengero cha magulu ukuwonjezeka, ofufuza anathamangira mu osiyana Vuto: deta sparsity. Ngati kuli anthu ochepa anthu mu gulu lirilonse, ndiye Ziwerengero za adzakhala chosadalirika, Tikanena kwambiri pamene pali gulu kuti alibe anafunsidwa, ndiye pambuyo stratification kwathunthu chisoni. Pali njira ziwiri mu mavuto izi chibadidwe pakati pa ponena za homogeneous- mayankho-propensity-mwake magulu kopanda ndi kufunika kwa makulidwe wololera chitsanzo gulu lililonse. Mukhoza kusamukira ku chitsanzo chipangizo zambiri zowerengera kwa kuwerengetsa zolemera ndi wina ndi kusonkhanitsa ambiri, zambiri zosiyanasiyana nyemba, amene amathandiza kuonetsetsa zazikulu zomveka chitsanzo gulu lililonse. Ndipo, nthawi zina ofufuza kuchita onse, monga ine kulongosola mwatsatanetsatane m'munsimu.

Kukambirana lachiwiri pamene akugwira pambuyo stratification ku zitsanzo sanali Mwina ndi kuti homogeneous-mayankho-propensity-mwake magulu kopanda kale kawirikawiri anapanga pamene kupenda zitsanzo Mwina. chifukwa kuti kopanda zimenezi zingamuthandize zitsanzo Mwina kuchita kuti Mwina zitsanzo ndi sanali Poyankha, ndi njira ambiri chifukwa kusintha kwa si yankho ndi maphokoso stratification monga tafotokozazi. Inde, chifukwa chakuti akatswiri ambiri kupanga maganizo ena sikutanthauza kuti muyenera kuchita izo kwambiri. Koma zimatanthauza kuti pamene kuyerekeza zitsanzo sanali Mwina ndi zitsanzo Mwina kuchita, tiyenera kukumbukira kuti kudalira maganizo ndi mfundo wothandiza kuti apange amanenera. Zoikamo amawaganizira kwambiri, sitingakhutitsidwe njira kopanda-free kuti kumasulira.

Pomaliza, ngati sasamala za wina kafukufuku makamaka athu chitsanzo ulova mlingo ndiye muyenera chikhalidwe ofooka kuposa homogeneous-mayankho-propensity-mwake magulu kopanda. Mwachindunji, simuyenera kuganiza kuti aliyense mofanana propensity, inu muyenera kuganiza kuti palibe malumikizanidwe pakati pa yankho propensity ndi mlingo ulova pakati pa gulu. Inde, ngakhale chikhalidwe ichi ofooka mukhala akukuvutitsani. Tiyerekeze kuyerekeza ndi chiwerengero cha America kuti ntchito mongodzipereka. Ngati anthu amene amachita ntchito mongodzipereka m'posavuta kuti amavomereza kuti kafukufuku, ndiye ofufuza atero mwadongosolo pa wokha kuchuluka kwa kudzipereka mwaufulu, ngakhale kuti anthuwo kusintha pambuyo stratification, chifukwa kuti wasonyeza empirically ndi Abraham, Helms, and Presser (2009) .

Monga ine ndinanena kale, zitsanzo sanali Mwina amaona ndi kukayikira kwambiri ndi asayansi chitukuko, mu gawo chifukwa cha udindo wawo ena kulephera chochititsa manyazi mu masiku oyambirira a kafukufuku kafukufuku. Chitsanzo chabwino cha momwe ife tabwera ndi zitsanzo sanali Mwina ndi kafukufuku wa Wei Wang, David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, ndi Andrew Gelman kuti molondola anachira zotsatira za 2012 chisankho US ntchito sanali Mwina chitsanzo cha owerenga American Xbox kutanthauza Ndithudi sanali mwachisawawa chitsanzo cha America (Wang et al. 2015) . Akatswiriwo alemba ntchito anafunsidwa ku Xbox Masewero dongosolo, ndipo inu mukhoza kuyembekezera, ndi Xbox chitsanzo skewed mwamuna ndi skewed achinyamata: 18 - 29 chaka zoyambira amapanga 19% oponya voti koma 65% ya Xbox nyemba ndi anthu amapanga 47% a oponya voti ndi 93% ya Xbox nyemba (Chithunzi 3.4). Chifukwa cha zimenezi biases amphamvu zaziwerengero, ndi zosaphika Xbox deta anali chizindikiro osauka akadzabweranso chisankho. Linaneneratu kupambana kwambiri Mitt Romney pa Barack Obama. Kenanso, ichi ndi chitsanzo cha kuopsa kwa yaiwisi, unadjusted zitsanzo sanali Mwina ndipo amatikumbutsa mabuku Digest fiasco.

Chithunzi 3.4: chiwerengero amene anafunsidwa mu Wang et al. (2015) . Chifukwa anafunsidwa analembedwa usilikali ku Xbox, anali zambiri achinyamata ndi kuti akhale aamuna, wachibale adzaponye chisanko mu 2012 chisankho.

Komabe, Wang ndi anzake anali kudziwa mavuto amenewa ndi kuyesa kulemera anafunsidwa kukonza kwa ndondomeko zosankhidwazi. Makamaka iwo anagwiritsa ntchito chipangizo zambiri pambuyo stratification ine ndinakuuzani inu za. M'pofunikanso kuphunzira mowonjezera za ulaliki wawo chifukwa zimatenga yodziŵiratu zinthu pasadakhale za pambuyo stratification, ndipo makamaka Baibulo Wang ndi anzake ntchito ndi imodzi mwa njira yochititsa chidwi kuti weighting zitsanzo sanali Mwina.

Chitsanzo wosalira zambiri za kuyerekeza ulova mu Gawo 3.4.1, ife anagawa anthu m'magulu potengera boma okhala. Koma Wang ndi anzake anagawa anthu mu m'magulu 176.256 chimafotokozera: jenda (2 siyana), mpikisano (4 siyana), m'badwo (4 siyana), maphunziro (4 siyana), boma (51 siyana), ID chipani (3 siyana), maganizo (3 siyana) ndi 2008 voti (3 siyana). Ndi magulu zambiri ofufuza ankaganiza kuti izo zikanakhala kwambiri ayenera kuti pakati pa gulu, yankho propensity anali uncorrelated ndi kuthandiza Obama. Kenako, osati kumanga zolemera munthu mlingo, monga ife tinachitira chitsanzo chathu, Wang ndi anzake anagwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo zovuta chaka chiwerengero cha anthu mu gulu lirilonse kuti kodi kuvotera Obama. Potsiriza, iwo pamodzi ziwerengero izi gulu thandizo ndi kukula kudziwika kwa gulu lirilonse kupereka pafupifupi msinkhu wonse thandizo. M'mawu ena, iwo anawaza anthu m'magulu osiyana, akuti thandizo kwa Obama gulu lililonse, ndipo anatenga ambiri zolemeletsedwa wa ziwerengero gulu kupanga kafukufuku wonse.

Choncho, vuto lalikulu mu njira zawo ndi chaka thandizo kwa Obama aliyense magulu 176.256. Ngakhale gulu lawo linali 345.858 ophunzira wapadera, nambala yaikulu mfundo za loponya chisanko, panali anthu ambiri, magulu ambiri amene Wang ndi anzake anali pafupifupi palibe amene anayankha. Choncho, chaka thandizo gulu lililonse iwo anagwiritsa ntchito njira yotchedwa multilevel mgwirizano ndi maphokoso stratification, amene ofufuza chachikulu kuitana Mr. P. Kwenikweni, chaka thandizo kwa Obama mwa gulu lapadera, Mr. P. maiwe mfundo zambiri yogwirizana magulu. Mwachitsanzo, taganizirani vuto kuyerekeza thandizo kwa Obama mwa mkazi, achisipanya, pakati pa zaka 18-29, amene anamaliza maphunziro a ku koleji, amene anawerengedwa Democrats, amene kudziona kudziwa ngati moderates, ndi amene anakuvoterani Obama mu 2008. Izi gulu kwambiri, mosapita, ndipo n'zotheka kuti palibenso mu nyemba ndi makhalidwe amenewa. Choncho, kuti anene za gulu, Mr. P. maiwe pamodzi pafupifupi anthu m'magulu ofanana kwambiri.

Pogwiritsa ntchito imeneyi kusanthula Wang ndi anzake anatha ntchito Xbox sanali Mwina chitsanzo chaka kwambiri thandizo zikuonongeka Obama analandira mu 2012 chisankho (Chithunzi 3.5). Ndipotu anene anali molondola kwambiri kuposa akaphatikiza chithata maganizo a anthu. Choncho, mu nkhani iyi, weighting makamaka Mr. P. zikuoneka kuchita ntchito zabwino chilangizo cha biases mu deta si Mwina; biases kuti akalipo pamene muyang'ana Ziwerengero za ku deta unadjusted Xbox.

Chithunzi 3.5: amanena ku Wang et al. (2015) . Unadjusted Xbox chitsanzo opangidwa ziwerengero olakwika. Koma, zolemeletsedwa Xbox chitsanzo opangidwa ziwerengero kuti anali olondola kwambiri kuposa avareji Mwina ofotokoza kafukufuku telefoni.

Pali zinthu ziwiri zazikulu kuphunzira Wang ndi anzake. Choyamba, unadjusted zitsanzo sanali Mwina tingayambe ziwerengero zoipa; ichi ndi phunziro kuti akatswiri ambiri chiyambire. Komabe, chinthu chachiwiri ndi chakuti sanali Mwina zitsanzo, pamene kulemetsedwa bwino, atha kupanga ziwerengero zabwino ndithu. Ndipotu, anene anali olondola kwambiri kuposa Ziwerengero za ku pollster.com, ndi loitanirana chithata zambiri makolo chisankho.

Pomaliza, pali zofooka zofunika zimene tingaphunzire phunziro ili enieni. chifukwa basi pambuyo stratification ntchito bwino nkhani imeneyi, palibe chitsimikizo kuti ntchito bwino nthawi zina. Ndipotu, kusankha mwinamwake mmodzi wa zoikamo chophweka chifukwa pollsters akhala akuphunzira chisankho pafupifupi zaka 100, pali nthawi zonse ndemanga (tikuona amene amapambana chisankho), ndi chizindikiritso chipani ndi makhalidwe zaziwerengero ali ndi predictive wa kukavota. Pa mfundo imeneyi, ife alibe chiphunzitso olimba ndi zinachitikira wazotsatira kudziwa pamene weighting kusintha zitsanzo sanali Mwina udzabala ziwerengero mokwanira molondola. chinthu chimodzi bwino Komabe, ngati inu amakakamizidwa ntchito ndi zitsanzo sanali Mwina, ndiye pali chifukwa chachikulu kukhulupirira kuti Ziwerengero takambiranazi adzakhala kuposa ziwerengero sanali kusintha.