3.4 ndani kupempha
Mwina zitsanzo ndi zitsanzo sanali Mwina sali kuti zosiyana muzochita zake; nthawi zonse, ndi zonse za kulemera kwa.
Zosankhidwazi n'kofunika kuti kafukufuku kafukufuku. Akatswiri pafupifupi konse mafunso awo kuti aliyense chandamale anthu awo. Pankhaniyi, kufufuza ndi Baibulo. kafukufuku kwambiri, mwa njira ina, kumafuna zosankhidwazi. Nthawi zina zosankhidwazi zimenezi motsimikizira ndi kafukufuku wa; Nthawi zina zimachitika wonse. Mwachitsanzo, kafukufuku amene akuthamanga zasayansi kuyesera ophunzira maphunziro a digiri yoyamba ku yunivesite wake abulusa chitsanzo. Choncho, zosankhidwazi ndi vuto akubwera mu buku ili. Ndipotu, mmodzi wa nkhawa ambiri ndikumva za magwero digito m'badwo deta ndi "sali nthumwi." Pamene tiona mu Gawo ili, nkhawa ndi zochepa kwambiri ndi zobisika kwambiri kuposa okayikira amadziŵa. Ndipotu, ine azenga kuti mfundo lonse la "representativeness" si zothandiza kuganizira Mwina ndipo sanali Mwina zitsanzo. M'malo mwake, chinsinsi kuganiza za momwe deta anali amatengedwa ndi mmene biases nako kuti deta akhoza Kumasula posankha amanenera.
Panopa lalikulu ongolankhula kufika kwa chifaniziro ndi Mwina zosankhidwazi. Pamene deta ndi kusonkhanitsidwa ndi Mwina zosankhidwazi njira imene yakhala mwangwiro anaphedwa, akatswiri amatha kulemera deta wawo potengera mmene iwo anasonkhana kuti anene osakondera za anthu chandamale. Komabe, wangwiro Mwina zosankhidwazi kwenikweni konse zimachitika anthu. Pali ambiri mavuto awiri aakulu 1) kusiyana pakati pa anthu chandamale ndi anthu chimango ndi 2) si yankho (izi ndendende mavuto amene linasweka kafukufuku zolembalemba Digest). Choncho, m'malo kuganiza Mwina zosankhidwazi chitsanzo kudziwa zimene kwenikweni zimachitika mu dziko, ndi bwino kuganizira Mwina zosankhidwazi ndi zothandiza, umboni chitsanzo, mofanana ndi momwe sayansi ndikuganiza za mpira zosapekesana anagubuduza pansi ndi wamphamvu yaitali limbikitsa.
The njira kuti Mwina zosankhidwazi ndi sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi. Chachikulu kusiyana pakati Mwina ndipo sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi kuti ndi Mwina zosankhidwazi aliyense anthu ali Mwina amadziwika kuti likhale. Pali Ndipotu, mitundu yambiri ya si Mwina zosankhidwazi, ndi njira izi zosonkhanitsira deta ayamba wamba mu m'badwo digito. Koma, si Mwina zosankhidwazi ali ndi mbiri zoopsa pakati asayansi chikhalidwe ndi statisticians. Ndipotu, si Mwina zosankhidwazi amagwirizana ndi zina zolephera kwambiri kwambiri ofufuza kafukufuku, monga mabuku Digest fiasco (zomwe zinakambidwa kale) ndi ulosi pachithunzichi za US chisankho cha Pulezident cha 1948 ( "Dewey kulephera Truman") (Mosteller 1949; Bean 1950; Freedman, Pisani, and Purves 2007) .
Komabe, nthawi yoyenera kusintha sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi zifukwa ziwiri. Choyamba, monga Mwina zitsanzo akhala kovuta kuchita kuchita, mzere wa pakati pa zitsanzo Mwina ndi zitsanzo sanali Mwina ali blurring. Pamene pali mitengo mkulu wa si yankho (monga pali fomu kwenikweni tsopano), Mwina enieni a inclusions kwa anafunsidwa ndi sanaidziwe, chotero, zitsanzo Mwina ndi zitsanzo sanali Mwina sali osiyana monga akatswiri ambiri amakhulupirira. Ndipotu, tiona pansipa, njira zonse kwenikweni kudalira pa kuyesa njira: pambuyo stratification. Chachiwiri, pakhala zinthu zambiri m'chigawo ndi kusanthula zitsanzo sanali Mwina. Njirazi ndi osiyana mokwanira kuchokera njira kuti vuto kale kuti ine ndikuganiza ndi bwino kuganizira iwo monga "sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi 2.0." Sitiyenera amadana zopanda nzeru ndi njira sanali Mwina chifukwa cha zolakwa zimene zinachitika kalekale.
Kenako, pofuna kuti mfundo imeneyi kwambiri konkire, ine tikambirane mfundo Mwina zosankhidwazi ndi weighting (Ndime 3.4.1). Mfundo yofunika kwambiri ndi yakuti kodi inu adziŵe chanu zimakhudzira mmene anene. Makamaka ngati aliyense alibe Mwina chomwecho likhale, ndiye kuti aliyense sayenera kulemera chomwecho. M'mawu ena, ngati zosankhidwazi wako sali demokalase, ndiye kufanizitsa wako usakhale demokalase. Atalingaliranso weighting, ine kufotokoza njira ziwiri kuti sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi: amene tikunena weighting kuthana ndi vuto la deta mwachisawawa anasonkhana (Ndime 3.4.2), ndi amene amayesera kuika ufulu wambiri momwe deta ndi anasonkhana (Ndime 3.4.3). The mfundo lemba waukulu zidzafotokozedwa pansipa ndi mawu ndi zithunzi; owerenga amene angafune mankhwala kwambiri masamu ayenera kuona zakumapeto luso.
