3.6.1 Amplified kupempha

Yolumikiza kafukufuku anu kuda digito angakhale ngati kufunsa aliyense mafunso anu nthawi zonse.

Kufunsa zambiri amabwera mu magawo awiri chachikulu: chitsanzo kafukufuku ndi kalembera. Chitsanzo kafukufuku, pamene inu kupeza ochepa anthu, ayenera kusintha, yake, ndipo ndi wotsika mtengo. Komabe, kafukufuku wa nyemba, chifukwa zochokera chitsanzo, nthawi zambiri zocheperapo kusamvana awo; ndi kafukufuku chitsanzo, nthawi zambiri zovuta kuti anene za m'madera enieni malo osiyanasiyana kapena kwa anthu enieni zaziwerengero. Kalembera, pa ena, amafuna funsani aliyense anthu. Iwo ndi kusamvana kwambiri, koma ambiri mtengo, moperewera cholinga (iwo okha monga ochepa mafunso), osati nthawi yake (zikuchitika pa ndandanda lokhazikika, monga zaka 10) (Kish 1979) . Tiyerekezenso ngati akatswiri akhoza kuphatikiza makhalidwe abwino a Kafukufuku nyemba ndi kalembera; kulingalira ngati akatswiri mungafunse funso lililonse kwa aliyense tsiku ndi tsiku.

Mwachionekere, zonse izi, ubiquitous, nthawi zonse, pa kafukufuku zili ngati sayansi chikhalidwe zongopeka. Koma zikuoneka kuti Tikhoza kuyandikira izi ndi kaphatikizidwe mafunso kafukufuku kwa ochepa a anthu ndi kuda digito anthu ambiri. Ndikaitana mtundu wa osakaniza nakweza kufunsa. Ngati bwino, izo zikhoza kutithandiza amapereka amati ali kumeneko kwambiri (kwa m'madera ang'onoang'ono malo osiyanasiyana), granular more (magulu enieni zaziwerengero), ndi zambiri yake.

Chitsanzo chimodzi cha kufunsa nakweza zimachokera ku ntchito ya Yoswa Blumenstock, amene ankafuna kusonkhanitsa deta amene angandithandize chitukuko woyendetsa m'mayiko osauka. Komanso mwapadera, Blumenstock ankafuna kuti akonze dongosolo kuyeza chuma ndi bwino kuti pamodzi mmene kalembera ndi kusinthasintha ndi pafupipafupi kafukufuku (Blumenstock 2014; Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Ndipotu, ine kale anafotokoza ntchito Blumenstock mwachidule mu Chapter 1.

Kuyamba, Blumenstock partnered ndi yaikulu athandizi foni ku Rwanda. kampani anam'patsa mbiri anonymized ndikupeleka kwa makasitomala pafupifupi mamiliyoni 1.5 kuphimba khalidwe 2005 ndi 2009. The zipika ali ndi mfundo za uthenga uliwonse kuitana ndi lemba monga chiyambire nthawi, nthawi, ndi pafupifupi malo ake apadera a woyimba ndi wolandila. Tisanayambe kukamba nkhani ya zowerengera, ndi bwino kufotokoza kuti njila iyi angafune chimodzi chovuta. Zalongosoledwa mu Chapter 2, ambiri digito kufufuza deta ndi kuwerengedwa ofufuza. Ndipo, makampani ambiri zifukwa manyazi kuuza deta awo chifukwa paokha; kuti ndi makasitomala awo mwina sanayembekezere kuti mayina awo adzakhala nawo mu chochuluka-ndi ofufuza. Pankhaniyi ofufuza anayesetsa mosamala anonymize deta ndi ntchito yawo overseen ndi wachitatu chipani (ie, IRB awo). Koma ngakhale mwakhama, deta awa mwina kuuzindikira ndipo kuti uli ndi zobisika (Mayer, Mutchler, and Mitchell 2016; Landau 2016) . Ine tibwerere ku funso awa zikuyenela mu Chapter 6.

Kumbukirani kuti Blumenstock chidwi kuchuluka kwa chuma ndi moyo wabwino. Koma, makhalidwe amenewa sali mu mbiri kuitana. M'mawu ena, zochitika kuitana ndi chosakwanira kuti kafukufuku, mbali wamba kuda digito kuti ankakambirana mwatsatanetsatane Chapter 2. Koma, zikuoneka kuti zolemba kuitana mwina zina zokhudza chuma komanso mtendere. Choncho, njira imodzi funso Blumenstock angakhale: kodi n'zotheka kulosera mmene munthu angamvetsere kafukufuku zochokera deta awo digito kufufuza? Ngati ndi choncho, ndiye pofunsa anthu ochepa tikhoza ndikulingalira mayankho wina aliyense.

Kuwunika izi empirically, Blumenstock ndi kafukufuku othandiza Kigali Institute of Science and Technology amatchedwa nyemba za chikwi makasitomala foni. Akatswiri anafotokoza zolinga za polojekiti kuti ophunzira, anapempha chilolezo awo yolumikizana mayankho kafukufuku kuti mbiri kuitana, ndipo anawafunsa mafunso angapo kuyeza chuma chawo ndi moyo, monga "Kodi muli ndi wailesi? "" Kodi muli ndi njinga? "(onani chithunzi 3,11 mndandanda tsankho). ophunzira onse kafukufuku anali kulipidwa ndalama.

Kenako, Blumenstock ntchito mfundo ziwiri ndondomeko wamba mu deta sayansi: Mbali zomangamanga anatsatira ndi kuphunzira ankaonetsetsa. Choyamba, mu sitepe Mbali zomangamanga, kwa aliyense amene anafunsidwa, Blumenstock atatembenuzidwa mbiri kuitana mu ya makhalidwe za munthu aliyense; deta asayansi Mwina makhalidwe amenewa "zinthu" ndipo asayansi chikhalidwe kuti iwo "zosintha." Mwachitsanzo, munthu aliyense, Blumenstock masamu chiwerengero cha masiku ntchito, kuchuluka kwa anthu osiyana munthu wakhala anakumana ndi, kuchuluka ndalama ntchito pa airtime, ndi zina zotero. Otsutsa, wabwino Mbali zomangamanga amafuna kudziwa zochitika za kafukufuku. Mwachitsanzo, ngati n'kofunika kusiyanitsa mafoni zoweta ndi mayiko (tikhoza kuyembekezera anthu oitana padziko lonse lapansi kukhala olemera), ndiye ziyenera kuchitika pa mapazi Mbali zomangamanga. Katswiri wina ndi kumvetsa pang'ono za Rwanda mwina zikuphatikizapo Mbali imeneyi, ndiyeno ntchito predictive wa chitsanzo imbonera.

Kenako, mu ankaonetsetsa kuphunzira sitepe, Blumenstock anamanga lachitsanzo zowerengera kulosera yankho kafukufuku munthu aliyense zochokera zizindikiro zawo. Pankhaniyi, Blumenstock ntchito logistic mgwirizano ndi 10 khola mtanda kutsimikiza, koma akanatha ntchito zosiyanasiyana njira zina zowerengera kapena makina learning.

Nanga bwino chiyani ntchito? Blumenstock anatha kulosera mayankho kafukufuku mafunso ngati "Kodi muli wailesi?" Ndi "Kodi muli ndi njinga?" Pogwiritsa ntchito nkhani anachokera ku mbiri kuitana? Amtundu. Yolondola maulosi anali kwambiri makhalidwe ena (Chithunzi 3.11). Koma, nthawi zonse zofunika kuyerekeza kuneneratu njira zovuta motsutsana losavuta njira. Pankhaniyi, losavuta njira ndi kulosera kuti aliyense kupereka yankho ambiri. Mwachitsanzo, 97,3% lipoti kukhala wailesi ngati Blumenstock anali ataneneratu kuti aliyense afotokoze kukhala wailesi iye akanakhala ndi lolondola 97,3%, amene n'zodabwitsa ofanana ntchito za ndondomeko yake zovuta kwambiri (97.6% molondola). M'mawu ena, deta zonse zapamwamba ndi kumutsatira adakula molondola zam'tsogolo kuchokera 97,3% kuti 97,6%. Komabe, mafunso ena monga "Kodi muli ndi njinga?", Maulosi bwino kuchokera 54,4% kuti 67,6%. More zambiri, Chithunzi 3,12 mapulogalamu ena makhalidwe Blumenstock sanali bwino kupyola basi kupanga ziriri kulosera kumodzi, koma ndi makhalidwe ena panali kusintha.

Chithunzi 3,11: Predictive olondola chifukwa chitsanzo zowerengera ophunzitsidwa ndi mbiri kuitana. Results ku Table 2 of Blumenstock (2014) .

Chithunzi 3,12: Kuyerekezera molondola predictive kwa chitsanzo zowerengera ophunzitsidwa ndi mbiri kuitana kwa ziriri kulosera kumodzi. Mfundo ndi pang'ono jittered kupewa alipo; onani Table 2 of Blumenstock (2014) kuti mfundo yeniyeni.

Pa nthawi imeneyi mwina mukuganiza kuti Zotsatira pang'ono zokhumudwitsa, koma patangotha ​​chaka, Blumenstock ndi awiri anzake-Gabriel Cadamuro ndi Robert On-lofalitsidwa ndi pepala mu Science ndi zotsatira zayamba bwino (Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On 2015) . Panali awiri zifukwa luso kwa bwino: 1) Adali njira zotsatirazi zambiri (ie, njira yatsopano kuwerenga zomangamanga ndi chipangizo more makina kuphunzira chitsanzo) ndipo 2) osati poyesa amachitsimikizira mayankho a mafunso kafukufuku payekha (mwachitsanzo, "Kodi muli wailesi?"), iwo anayesa amachitsimikizira ndi gulu chuma index.

Blumenstock ndi anzake anasonyeza kuti ntchito ya ulaliki wawo m'njira ziwiri. Choyamba, iwo anapeza kuti anthu mu chitsanzo chawo, iwo akanakhoza kuchita ntchito zabwino kwambiri za akuneneratu chuma chawo kulembedwa kuitana (Chithunzi 3.14). Chachiwiri, nthawi Chofunika, Blumenstock ndi anzake anasonyeza kuti udindo wawo akhoza kupanga ziwerengero apamwamba kwambiri yogawa malo osiyanasiyana chuma ku Rwanda. Komanso mwapadera, iwo ntchito makina awo kuphunzira chitsanzo, amene anaphunzitsidwa pa chitsanzo chawo cha anthu pafupifupi 1,000, kulosera chuma cha anthu onse oposa 1.5 miliyoni mu mbiri kuitana. Komanso, ndi deta geospatial anapatsa deta kuitana (Kumbukirani kuti deta kuitana zikuphatikizapo malo ogulitsira nsanja selo lililonse kuitana) ofufuza anatha amanena akusonyeza malo okhala munthu aliyense. Kuika ziwerengero ziwiri izi palimodzi, kafukufuku opangidwa amayesa yogawa malo osiyanasiyana a wolembetsa chuma granularity zabwino kwambiri okhudza malo. Mwachitsanzo, iwo akhoza amati chuma pafupifupi aliyense 2148 maselo Rwanda a (zing'onozing'ono oyendetsera gulu m'dzikolo). Izi zinanenedweratu chuma makhalidwe anali granular iwo anali ovuta fufuzani. Choncho ofufuza aggregated zotsatira zawo kubala akuti chuma ambiri m'maboma 30 Rwanda ali. Ziwerengero chigawo mlingo amenewa kwambiri zokhudzana ndi ziwerengero ku muyezo kafukufuku golide mwambo, a ku Rwanda zaziwerengero ndi Health Survey (Chithunzi 3.14). Ngakhale ziwerengero za zinthu ziwiri yofanana, ziwerengero za Blumenstock ndi anzake anali pafupifupi 50 nthawi mtengo ndi zina 10 msanga (pamene poyerekeza amayezedwa mawu a ndalama variable). Izi kuchepa kwambiri mtengo zikutanthauza kuti m'malo kuthamanga pa zaka-ochepa ndi muyezo zaziwerengero ndi Health Kafukufuku wa hybrid ya kafukufuku yaing'ono pamodzi deta lalikulu digito kufufuza akhoza kuthamanga mwezi uliwonse.

Chithunzi 3,13: zojambula za Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . deta kuitana ku gulu foni anatembenuzidwa kuti masanjidwewo ndi mzere umodzi munthu aliyense ndi ndime aliyense Mbali (ie, variable). Kenako ofufuza anamanga ankaonetsetsa kuphunzira chitsanzo kulosera mayankho kafukufuku kwa munthuyo ndi mbali masanjidwewo. Ndiye, ankaonetsetsa kuphunzira chitsanzo anamugwiritsa ntchito kuti tizinena mayankho kafukufuku aliyense. Kwenikweni ofufuza ntchito mayankho la anthu chikwi kuti tizinena chuma cha anthu za miliyoni. Komanso ofufuza akuti akusonyeza malo okhala anthu onse oposa 1.5 miliyoni zochokera malo a mafoni awo. Pamene ziwerengero awiriwa anali pamodzi ndi akuti chuma ndi akuti malo okhala ndi zotsatira zinali zofanana ndi ziwerengero ku zaziwerengero ndi Survey Health, ndi golide muyezo chikhalidwe kafukufuku (Chithunzi 3.14).

Chithunzi 3,14: Results ku Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) . Pa munthuyo mlingo ofufuza anatha kuchita ntchito wololera pa akuneneratu chuma munthu kulembedwa kuitana kwawo. The akuti chigawo mlingo chuma amene yochokera ziwerengero munthu mlingo wa chuma ndi malo okhala-zotsatira zinali zofanana ndi zotsatira za zaziwerengero ndi Health Survey, ndi golide muyezo chikhalidwe kafukufuku.

Pomaliza, Blumenstock a Amplified kufunsa njira pamodzi deta kafukufuku ndi zomwe digito kufufuza kubala ziwerengero ofanana ndi ziwerengero kafukufuku golide muyezo. Mwachitsanzo imeneyi komanso limamveketsa ena a malonda-offs pakati kufunsa nakweza ndi njira za makolo kafukufuku. Choyamba, nakweza kufunsa ziwerengero adali yake, zayamba mtengo, ndi zambiri granular. Koma, Mosiyana, pa nthawi iyi, palibe amphamvu ongolankhula maziko mtundu uwu kufunsa nakweza. Kuti, chitsanzo sikuti munthu kusonyeza pamene ntchito komanso pamene sadzatero. Komanso, nakweza kufunsa njira alibe ndi njira yabwino kuchuluka njakata padziko ziwerengero zake. Komabe, nakweza kufunsa ali kugwirizana kwambiri ndi mbali zitatu zazikulu mu ziwerengero-chitsanzo ofotokoza pambuyo stratification (Little 1993) , kupatsidwa (Rubin 2004) , ndi ang'ono-m'dera chiwerengero (Rao and Molina 2015) -ndipo kotero ndimayembekezera kuti patsogolo adzatero kukhala mofulumira.

Nakweza kufunsa motere Chinsinsi zofunika kuti akhoza zogwirizana ndi vuto anu. Pali zinthu ziwiri ndi masitepe awiri. The zosakaniza awiri 1) a digito kufufuza gulu lazidziwitso kuti n'chachikulu koma woonda (ndiko kuti, ali ndi anthu ambiri koma mudziwe kuti muyenera za anthu uliwonse) ndi 2) kafukufuku amene yopapatiza koma wandiweyani (kutanthauza kuti ali ndi anthu pang'ono basi, koma nkhani iliyonse imene mukufuna za anthu). Ndiye, pali zinthu ziwiri. Choyamba, anthu a ku magwero deta, kumanga makina kuphunzira chitsanzo kuti amagwiritsa ntchito deta digito kufufuza kulosera mayankho kafukufuku. Kenako, ntchito chitsanzo makina kuphunzira kuti tizinena mayankho a aliyense kafukufuku mu deta digito kufufuza. Choncho, ngati pali funso limene inu mukufuna kufunsa kuti anthu ambiri, kuyang'ana deta digito kufufuza kwa anthu kuti zingathe kugwiritsidwa ntchito kulosera yankho lawo.

Poyerekeza pofuna yoyamba ndi yachiwiri Blumenstock pa vutolo komanso zikusonyeza mfundo yofunika kwambiri za kusintha kwa nyengo yachiwiri njira nthawi yachitatu ndi kafukufuku kafukufuku: chiyambi si mapeto. Kuti, nthawi zambiri, njira yoyamba sadzakhala bwino, koma ngati akatswiri kupitiriza kugwira ntchito, zinthu Mukhoza kuchira. More zambiri, pamene ingatithandize kuzindikira njira zatsopano kafukufuku chikhalidwe mu m'badwo digito, n'kofunika kuti mawunikidwe awiri osiyana: 1) Kodi ntchito imeneyi tsopano ndi 2) mmene chiyani mukuganiza kuti ntchito m'tsogolo monga malo deta kusintha ndipo ofufuza kusamalira kwambiri vutoli. Ngakhale, ofufuza amaphunzitsidwa kuti mtundu woyamba wa kuwunika (nkokoma ndi kachidutswa makamaka kafukufuku), wachiwiri zambiri zofunika kwambiri.