ndemanga zina

Chigawo lakonzedwa kuti ntchito buku, osati muwerenge ngati mafotokozedwe.

• Chiyambi (Ndime 3.1)

Ambiri mwa mfundo m'mutu uno akhala anabwereza maadiresi posachedwapa Pulezidenti pa Association American la Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), monga Dillman (2002) , Newport (2011) , Santos (2014) , ndipo Link (2015) .

Pakuti mbiri zambiri mbiri ya chitukuko cha kafukufuku kafukufuku, onani Smith (1976) ndi Converse (1987) . Kwambiri pa ganizo la Nthawi atatu a kafukufuku kafukufuku, onani Groves (2011) ndi Dillman, Smyth, and Christian (2008) (amene chitatha Nthawi atatu pang'ono mosiyana).

A pachimake mkati kusintha kwa woyamba nyengo yachiwiri kafukufuku kafukufuku ndi Groves and Kahn (1979) , amene amachita zambiri mutu ndi mutu poyerekeza pakati pa nkhope ndi nkhope ndi kafukufuku telefoni. Brick and Tucker (2007) akayang'ana chitukuko mbiri ya mwachisawawa manambala kuimba zosankhidwazi njira.

Zambiri momwe kafukufuku kafukufuku wasintha kale poyankha kusintha anthu, onani Tourangeau (2004) , Mitofsky (1989) , ndipo Couper (2011) .

• Kufunsa vs. kuona (Ndime 3.2)

Kuphunzira za limati mkati mwa mafunso kungakhale mabvuto chifukwa nthawi zina anafunsidwa okha sadziwa limati awo mkati. Mwachitsanzo, Nisbett and Wilson (1977) ndi pepala bwino ndi mutu evocative: "Kuuza kuposa ife tingadziwire. Malipoti Mawu pa njira maganizo" Mu pepala olemba kunena: "nzika ndi zina (a) sakudziwa kuli kuwalimbikitsa kuti Chofunika kutengera ayankhe, (b) sadziwa kuti kuli anayankha, ndi (c) sadziwa kuti nzothandiza zakhudza yankho. "

Kuti mumve mfundo zimene ofufuza ayenera amakonda khalidwe anati kwa lipoti makhalidwe, kuona Baumeister, Vohs, and Funder (2007) (kuwerenga maganizo) ndi Jerolmack and Khan (2014) ndi mayankho (Maynard 2014; Cerulo 2014; Vaisey 2014; Jerolmack and Khan 2014) (Sociology). Kusiyana kupempha ndi kutsatira komanso ikutuluka zachuma, pamene ofufuza kulankhula za zokonda ananena ndi kuululidwa. Mwachitsanzo, katswiriyu mungafunse anafunsidwa ngati amakonda kudya ayisikilimu kapena kupita kumalo ochitira masewera (ananena amakonda) kapena kafukufuku akhoza mmene anthu kudya ayisikilimu ndi kupita ku masewero olimbitsa (unawulula amakonda). Pali kwambiri kukayikira a mitundu ina deta ananena amakonda mu zachuma (Hausman 2012) .

A yaikulu ku kutsutsana izi ndi kuti khalidwe inati si nthawi zonse zolondola. Koma, basi wolembedwa khalidwe sangakhale olondola, mwina amatengedwa pa chitsanzo cha chidwi, kungakhale mosavuta ofufuza. Choncho, zinthu zina, ine ndikuganiza kuti khalidwe lipoti zingatithandize. Komanso, yachiwiri yaikulu lathu ku kutsutsana izi n'chakuti nkhani za maganizo, nzeru, ziyembekezo, ndi maganizo si nthawi zonse zolondola. Koma, ngati zokhudza limati izi mkati zofunika ndi ofufuza kaya kuthandiza fotokozani makhalidwe kapena chinthu kuzifotokoza-kupempha kungakhale koyenera.

• Total kafukufuku cholakwa (Ndime 3.3)

Buku kutalika mankhwala pa zolakwa okwana kafukufuku, onani Groves et al. (2009) kapena Weisberg (2005) . Pakuti mbiri ya chitukuko cha zolakwa okwana kafukufuku, onani Groves and Lyberg (2010) .

Kumbali ya chifaniziro, mawu kwambiri pa nkhani ya si yankho ndipo si yankho kukondera ndi lipoti National Council Research pa Nonresponse mu Social Science Kafukufuku: A zokakambirana Research (2013) . Mwachidule china chofunika amapereka (Groves 2006) . Komanso lonse mavuto apadera a Journal of Official Statistics, Public Opinion Quarterly, ndipo The Annals la American Academy of Political ndi Science Social afalitsidwa pa nkhani ya si yankho. Pomaliza, pali njira kwenikweni osiyanasiyana a kuwerengetsa mlingo yankho; njira izi zikufotokozedwa mwatsatanetsatane Lipoti lolembedwa ndi Association American la Public Opinion Akatswiri (AAPOR) (Public Opinion Researchers} 2015) .

The 1936 zolembalemba Digest kafukufuku wakhala anaphunzira mwatsatanetsatane (Bryson 1976; Squire 1988; Cahalan 1989; Lusinchi 2012) . Zikuonekanso ntchito ngati fanizo kuti akawachenjeze kochitika mwachisawawa zosonkhanitsira deta (Gayo-Avello 2011) . Mu 1936, George bungwe la Gallup linachita ntchito mawonekedwe apamwamba kwambiri a zosankhidwazi, ndipo anali kupereka ziwerengero molondola kwambiri ndi chitsanzo laling'ono kwambiri. Bwino bungwe la Gallup linachita pa mabuku Digest zinthu zinasintha chitukuko cha kafukufuku kafukufuku (Converse 1987, Ch 3; Ohmer 2006, Ch 4; Igo 2008, Ch 3) .

Kumbali ya muyeso, m'nthawi lalikulu gwero angagwiritse mafunso ndi Bradburn, Sudman, and Wansink (2004) . Pakuti mankhwala patsogolo kwambiri maganizo makamaka pa mafunso mtima, onani Schuman and Presser (1996) . More pa mafunso chisanadze kuyezetsa lilipo Presser and Blair (1994) , Presser et al. (2004) , ndipo Chapter 8 Groves et al. (2009) .

The tingachipeze powerenga, buku kutalika mankhwala a malonda pa pakati ndalama kafukufuku ndi zolakwa kafukufuku ndi Groves (2004) .

• Amene kufunsa (Ndime 3.4)

Classic buku kutalika mankhwala a muyezo Mwina zosankhidwazi ndi chiwerengero ndi Lohr (2009) (more koyambirira) ndi Särndal, Swensson, and Wretman (2003) (more zapamwamba). A tingachipeze powerenga Buku kutalika mankhwala njira pambuyo stratification ndi kuwafotokozera ndi Särndal and Lundström (2005) . Ena zoikamo digito m'badwo, ofufuza mukudziwa pang'ono ndithu za amene sanali anafunsidwa, amene sanali zambiri zoona m'mbuyomu. Zosiyanasiyana za kusintha si yankho zitheka pamene ofufuza ndi ndondomeko sanali anafunsidwa (Kalton and Flores-Cervantes 2003; Smith 2011) .

Phunziro Xbox wa Wang et al. (2015) amagwiritsa ntchito njira wotchedwa multilevel mgwirizano ndi maphokoso stratification (MRP, limatchedwa "Bambo P") kuti amalola ofufuza chaka cell zikutanthauza ngakhale pamene pali ambiri, maselo ambiri. Ngakhale pali ena kutsutsana pankhani ya Ziwerengero za ku njira imeneyi, zikuoneka ngati m'dera zingamuthandize kufufuza. Njira anali woyamba ntchito Park, Gelman, and Bafumi (2004) , ndipo pakhala wotsatira ntchito ndi mtsutso (Gelman 2007; Lax and Phillips 2009; Pacheco 2011; Buttice and Highton 2013; Toshkov 2015) . Zambiri pa kugwirizana zolemera munthu ndi zolemera cell ofotokoza kuona Gelman (2007) .

Pakuti njira zina Kafukufuku weighting ukonde, onani Schonlau et al. (2009) , Valliant and Dever (2011) , ndi Bethlehem (2010) .

Zitsanzo yofananira anali bungwe Rivers (2007) . Bethlehem (2015) ananena kuti ntchito ya nyemba yofananira adzachita zofanana ndi njira zina zosankhidwazi (mwachitsanzo, stratified zosankhidwazi) ndi njira zina kusintha (mwachitsanzo, pambuyo stratification). Zambiri pa mulitali online, onani Callegaro et al. (2014) .

Nthawi zina akatswiri ena anapeza kuti Mwina zitsanzo ndi zitsanzo sanali Mwina patukani akuti khalidwe lofanana (Ansolabehere and Schaffner 2014) , koma kufananitsa ena apeza kuti sanali Mwina zitsanzo choipa (Malhotra and Krosnick 2007; Yeager et al. 2011) . Chifukwa chimodzi zotheka kusiyana ndi kuti sanali Mwina zitsanzo akweza nthawi. Kwa lingaliro amenewa omwe sanali Mwina zosankhidwazi njira kuona ndi AAPOR Ntchito Force pa Non-Mwina zosankhidwazi (Baker et al. 2013) , ndipo ine mankhwala kuwerenga ndemanga zotsatira lipoti mwachidule.

Kuti pambuyo-kusanthula pa zotsatira za weighting kuchepetsa kukondera pa zitsanzo sanali Mwina, onani Table 2.4 mu Tourangeau, Conrad, and Couper (2013) , imbaenda olemba kunena "kusintha amaoneka ngati zothandiza koma kulakwa kuwongolera. . . "

• Kodi kufunsa (Ndime 3.5)

Conrad and Schober (2008) amapereka Buku lolembedwa lotchedwa chitsanzo cha Survey Funsani Future, ndipo akulankhula ambiri mwa nkhani mu gawo limeneli. Couper (2011) akulankhula mfundo zofanana ndipo Schober et al. (2015) amapereka chitsanzo chabwino cha mmene njira zosonkhanitsira deta zogwirizana ndi malo atsopano kungachititse deta apamwamba khalidwe.

Mwachitsanzo wina chidwi ntchito Facebook mapulogalamu kwa Kafukufuku sayansi pagulu, onani Bail (2015) .

Malangizo more kupanga kafukufuku yosangalatsa ndi wofunika kwa ophunzira, ntchito pa zogwirizana Design Njira (Dillman, Smyth, and Christian 2014) .

Stone et al. (2007) amapereka buku kutalika mankhwala a zachilengedwe akanthawi ziyenera ndi njira zokhudzana.

• Kafukufuku zogwirizana deta zina (Ndime 3.6)

Judson (2007) anafotokoza ndondomeko ya kaphatikizidwe Kafukufuku ndi deta utsogoleri monga "mudziwe kusakanikirana," ikufotokoza ubwino njira imeneyi, ndipo muli zitsanzo.

Njira ina imene ofufuza angagwiritse ntchito kuda digito ndi deta utsogoleri ndi zosankhidwazi chimango anthu ndi makhalidwe enieni. Komabe, kulumikiza zochitika kuti ntchito zochepa chabe pamalangizo chimango akhoza kutsegula mafunso okhudza chinsinsi (Beskow, Sandler, and Weinberger 2006) .

Ponena kufunsa nakweza mawu ake, njira imeneyi si monga atsopano uwoneke mmene ine analongosola. Njira imeneyi ali kugwirizana kwambiri ndi mbali zitatu zazikulu mu ziwerengero-chitsanzo ofotokoza pambuyo stratification (Little 1993) , kupatsidwa (Rubin 2004) , ang'onoang'ono ndi dera chiwerengero (Rao and Molina 2015) . Nawonso zokhudzana ndi ntchito zosintha surrogate mu yakuthandizani (Pepe 1992) .

Kuwonjezera nkhani zikuyenela zokhudza kupeza deta digito kufufuza, nakweza kufunsa akhoza kugwiritsidwa ntchito amachitsimikizira makhalidwe tcheru kuti anthu kusankha kuwulula pa kafukufuku (Kosinski, Stillwell, and Graepel 2013) .

Mtengo ndipo nthawi ziwerengero mu Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) akunena kwambiri variable mtengo-mtengo wina ndalama kafukufuku ndi zina mulibe lokhazikika monga mtengo kuyeretsa ndi pokonza deta kuitana. Ambiri, nakweza kufunsa mwina ndi mkulu ndalama atathana ndi otsika variable ndalama ofanana zatsopano digito (onani Mutu 4). Zambiri pa deta ntchito Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) pepala ali Blumenstock and Eagle (2010) ndi Blumenstock and Eagle (2012) . Njira kuchokera angapo imputuation (Rubin 2004) zingathandize kuti agwidwa njakata mu ziwerengero za kufunsa nakweza. Ngati ofufuza kuchita nakweza kufunsa amasamala udindo akaphatikiza, osati makhalidwe munthu mlingo yekha, ndiye ikuyandikira mu King and Lu (2008) ndi Hopkins and King (2010) zikhonza kukhala zothandiza. Zambiri za njira makina kuphunzira mu Blumenstock, Cadamuro, and On (2015) , onani James et al. (2013) (more koyambirira) kapena Hastie, Tibshirani, and Friedman (2009) (more zapamwamba). Wina wotchuka makina kuphunzira buku ndi Murphy (2012) .

Ponena Polemeretsedwa kufunsa, zotsatira Ansolabehere ndi Hersh (2012) hinge pa masitepe awiri ofunika: 1) luso Catalist kuphatikiza ambiri anthuwo deta magwero kubala molondola mbuye datafile ndi 2) mphamvu ya Catalist yolumikizana deta kafukufuku kuti mbuye wake datafile. Choncho, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh funsani aliyense zimenezi mosamala.

Kulenga mbuye datafile, Catalist Chili ndi zikugwirizana mfundo kuchokera ku magwero osiyanasiyana kuphatikizapo: angapo kaundula kukavota zochepa chabe ndi aliyense boma, kafukufuku wa Post Office a Change National wa Address kaundula, ndi kafukufuku wosamalira ena mosadziwika malonda. Tsatanetsatane oonetsa anthu akuphana mmene kuyeretsa uku ndi merging zimachitika singathe kufotokoza za m'buku lino, koma ndondomekoyi, kaya kusamala, adzakhala kufalitsa zolakwa za original magwero deta ndi aitane zolakwa. Ngakhale Catalist anali wofunitsitsa kukambirana processing yake deta ndi anthu ena deta yake yaiwisi, izo zinali sangathe ofufuza kubwerezanso lonse Catalist deta payipi. M'malo mwake, ofufuza anali ndi vuto kumene Catalist deta file anali osadziwika, ndipo mwina ayi, kuchuluka kwa zolakwa. Izi ndi zofunika kwambiri chifukwa wotsutsa mwina amanena kuti kusiyana lalikulu pakati malipoti kafukufuku pa CCES ndi khalidwe mu Catalist file mbuye deta chifukwa cha zolakwa mu file mbuye deta, osati misreporting ndi kafukufukuyu.

Ansolabehere ndi Hersh anatenga njira ziwiri zosiyana kuthetsa nkhawa deta khalidwe. Choyamba, kuwonjezera kuyerekeza kudziona lipoti kukavota kuti Kuvota pa Catalist mbuye file ofufuza umayerekezeredwanso kudziona lipoti chipani, mtundu, oponya mavoti udindo m'kaundula (mwachitsanzo, mayina kapena ayi m'kaundula) ndi njira kukavota (mwachitsanzo, mwa munthu, opanda voti, etc.) kuti mfundo zimene zimapezeka zinasokoneza makompyuta Catalist. Pakuti anayiwa zosintha zaziwerengero ofufuza anapeza misinkhu apamwamba a mgwirizano pakati pa lipoti kafukufuku ndi deta mu Catalist mbuye file kuposa kukavota. Choncho, Catalist mbuye deta file akuoneka kuti mkulu khalidwe mudziwe makhalidwe ena kuposa kukavota, kusonyeza kuti si osauka akukhudzidwira ndi khalidwe. Chachiwiri, mu gawo ntchito deta ku Catalist, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh anayamba miyeso itatu yosiyana khalidwe la mbiri County kukavota, ndipo anapeza kuti pafupifupi mlingo wa pa-malipoti a kukavota anali kwenikweni zifukwa aliyense wa zonsezi deta quality, ndi kupeza kuti amati ziwawa za pa-malipoti si kuyendetsa mwa zigawo ndi champhamvu otsika khalidwe deta.

Popeza chilengedwe cha ichi mbuye kukavota file, gwero yachiwiri zolakwa luso yolumikiza kulembamo kafukufuku kwa izo. Mwachitsanzo, ngati Mgwirizano zimenezi molakwika zingachititse kuti pa wokha wa kusiyana inanena ndi linatsimikizidwa kukavota khalidwe (Neter, Maynes, and Ramanathan 1965) . Ngati munthu aliyense anali khola, wapadera dzina kuti anali a ku magwero deta, ndiye Mgwirizano adzakhala yaing'ono. Mu US ambiri m'mayiko ena, palibe dzina konsekonse. Komanso, ngakhale kuti panali zimenezi ndi dzina anthu mwina kukayikira kupereka izo ndi kafukufuku ofufuza! Choncho, Catalist anali kuchita Mgwirizano ntchito identifiers ungwiro, mu nkhani iyi ndalama zinayi zokhudza aliyense woyankha: dzina, jenda, chaka kubadwa, ndi adiresi kunyumba. Mwachitsanzo, Catalist anayenera kusankha ngati Homie J Simpson mu CCES anali munthu yemweyo monga Homer Jay Simpson mu file awo mbuye deta. Zochita yofananira ndi zovuta ndi chosokonekera ndondomeko, ndi kuti vutolo kwa akatswiri a, Catalist ankaona yofananira luso lake kuti kampani.

Kuti atsimikizire kwa ma aligorivimu yofananira, anadalira pa mavuto awiri. Choyamba, Catalist nawo mpikisano yofananira kuti anali kuthamanga ndi wodziimira lachitatu chipani: ndi MITRE Corporation. MITRE anapereka ophunzira onse awiri deta phokoso owona kuti chikufanana ndi magulu osiyana mpikisano kubwerera MITRE ndi yofananira bwino. Chifukwa MITRE lokha ankadziwa yofananira olondola adakhoza mphambu magulu a anthu. Wa makampani 40 kuti mpikisano, Catalist anabwera lachiwiri. mtundu uwu ufulu lachitatu chipani kufufuza luso kampani ali osowa kwambiri ndipo amazipanga wapatali; tiyenera zimatitsimikizira kuti Catalist ali yofananira njira ali kwenikweni pa boma la-ndi-luso. Koma ndi boma la-ndi-luso zabwino mokwanira? Kuwonjezera mpikisano uwu yofananira, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh analenga yofananira awo amavutika Catalist. Ku ntchito ina, Ansolabehere ndi Hersh asonkhana mbiri oponya mavoti ku Florida. Zinthu zina zochitika ndi ena mwa minda yawo redacted kuti Catalist ndiyeno poyerekeza nkhani Catalist la minda iyi makhalidwe awo enieni. Mwamwayi, malipoti Catalist anali pafupi ndi mfundo za kupondereza, kusonyeza kuti Catalist anafanana mbiri tsankho oponya mavoti pa file awo mbuye deta. mavuto awiri awa, limodzi ndi wachitatu chipani ndi mmodzi mwa Ansolabehere ndi Hersh, zimatitsimikizira kwambiri mu Catalist ma aligorivimu yofananira, ngakhale kuti sitingathe tikambirane awo kukhazikitsa yeniyeni tokha.

Pakhala maulendo angapo isanafike tsimikizira kukavota. Pakuti mwachidule mabuku, onani Belli et al. (1999) , Berent, Krosnick, and Lupia (2011) , Ansolabehere and Hersh (2012) , ndipo Hanmer, Banks, and White (2014) .

Nkofunika kuzindikira kuti ngakhale mu nkhani iyi ofufuza analimbikitsidwa ndi khalidwe la kafukufuku Catalist, mawunikidwe zina mavenda malonda akhala zochepa wachangu. Akatswiri apeza osauka khalidwe pamene kafukufuku kafukufuku kwa ogula-file ku Marketing KA Gulu (amene lokha ophatikizidwa pamodzi kafukufuku wosamalira atatu: Acxiom, Experian, ndi InfoUSA) (Pasek et al. 2014) . Ndiko kuti, file deta sikunafanane mayankho kafukufuku amene akatswiri ayenera kukhala zolondola, datafile anali kusowa deta chifukwa ambiri mafunso ndipo deta kusowa chitsanzo anali chilamulira chikhalidwe ndi maonekedwe inati kafukufuku (mwa kulankhula kwina deta kusowa anali mwadongosolo osati mwachisawawa).

Zambiri pa nkhani Mgwirizano pakati pa kafukufuku ndi deta utsogoleri, onani Sakshaug and Kreuter (2012) ndi Schnell (2013) . Zambiri pa nkhani Mgwirizano ambiri, onani Dunn (1946) ndi Fellegi and Sunter (1969) (mbiri yakale) ndi Larsen and Winkler (2014) (masiku). Njira zofanana akhala anayamba sayansi kompyuta pansi mayina monga deta deduplication, Mwachitsanzo chizindikiritso, dzina yofananira, chibwereza kudziwika ndi kutsanzira mbiri kudziwika (Elmagarmid, Ipeirotis, and Verykios 2007) . Palinso chinsinsi chipulumutso likuyandikira kulemba Mgwirizano zomwe popanda kutenga panokha kudzizindikiritsa mudziwe (Schnell 2013) . Akatswiri pa Facebook anayamba mwambo kuti probabilisticsly umakhalapo mayina awo khalidwe kukavota (Jones et al. 2013) ; Mgwirizano ichi chidachitika kufufuza ndi kuyesera kuti ine ndikuuzani inu mu Chapter 4 (Bond et al. 2012) .

Chitsanzo china yolumikiza ndi zikuluzikulu kafukufuku anthu kuti mbiri boma utsogoleri amachokera Health ndi Survey Kupuma pantchito ndi Administration Security Social. Kwambiri pa phunziro, kuphatikizapo zokhudza ndondomeko chilolezo, onani Olson (1996) ndi Olson (1999) .

The ndondomeko ya kaphatikizidwe magwero ambiri mbiri utsogoleri mu mbuye datafile-ndondomeko kuti Catalist antchito, ambiri maofesi zowerengera maboma ena national. Akatswiri awiri Kafukufuku Sweden ankalemba buku zambiri pa nkhaniyi (Wallgren and Wallgren 2007) . Chitsanzo cha njira imeneyi mu County single mu United States (Olmstead County, Minnesota, nyumba ya Mayo Clinic), onani Sauver et al. (2011) . Zambiri pa zolakwa kuti akhoza kuoneka mu mbiri utsogoleri, onani Groen (2012) .