Zimene muyenera kuwerenga kenako

• Chiyambi (gawo 4.1)

Mafunso okhudzana ndi kafukufuku wamakhalidwe a anthu nthawi zambiri amakhala ovuta komanso ovuta. Kuti mudziwe njira zofunikira zogwiritsira ntchito zojambulazo, onani Pearl (2009) , komanso kuti mudziwe njira Imbens and Rubin (2015) , onani Imbens and Rubin (2015) . Poyerekeza pakati pa njira ziwiri izi, onani Morgan and Winship (2014) . Kuti mudziwe njira yowonjezereka, onani VanderWeele and Shpitser (2013) .

M'mutu uno, ndapanga zomwe zimawoneka ngati mzere pakati pa luso lathu lopangira chiwerengero choyesa ndi deta yosayesa komanso yosayesa. Komabe, ndikuganiza kuti, makamaka, kusiyana kuli kovuta. Mwachitsanzo, aliyense amavomereza kuti kusuta kumayambitsa khansara, ngakhale kuti kuyesedwa kosasinthika komwe kumachititsa kuti anthu asute fodya. Kuti mupeze njira zabwino kwambiri zothandizira kuti Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) onani Rosenbaum (2002) , ( ??? ) , Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) , ndi Dunning (2012) .

Chaputala 1 ndi 2 cha Freedman, Pisani, and Purves (2007) amapereka kufotokozera momveka bwino kusiyana pakati pa kuyesedwa, kuyesedwa koyendetsedwa, ndi kuyesera kosayendetsedwa bwino.

Manzi (2012) amapereka chiyambi chochititsa chidwi ndi chowoneka bwino pa zofikira komanso zowerengetsera za mayesero omwe amachitidwa mosavuta. Amaperekanso zitsanzo zabwino zenizeni zenizeni za mphamvu yakuyesera zamalonda. Issenberg (2012) imapereka chithunzithunzi chosangalatsa chogwiritsira ntchito kuyesayesa mu ndale za ndale.

• Kodi kuyesa ndi chiyani? (gawo 4.2)

Box, Hunter, and Hunter (2005) , @ casella_statistical_2008, ndi Athey and Imbens (2016b) amapereka zithunzithunzi zabwino pa ziwerengero za kuyesa ndi kuyesa. Kuwonjezera apo, pali mankhwala abwino kwambiri omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito poyesera m'madera osiyanasiyana: Economics (Bardsley et al. 2009) , chikhalidwe cha anthu (Willer and Walker 2007; Jackson and Cox 2013) , psychology (Aronson et al. 1989) , sayansi ya ndale (Morton and Williams 2010) , ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu (Glennerster and Takavarasha 2013) .

Kufunika kolemba ntchito (mwachitsanzo, sampuli) kawirikawiri kumayamikiridwa mu kafukufuku woyesera. Komabe, ngati zotsatira za mankhwalawa ndizosiyana kwambiri ndi anthu, ndiye kuti sampuli ndi yofunika kwambiri. Longford (1999) imapereka mfundoyi momveka bwino pamene amalimbikitsa ochita kafukufuku kulingalira za kuyesera ngati kafukufuku wa anthu omwe sanagwiritsidwe ntchito.

• Miyeso iwiri ya kuyesa: labu-munda ndi analog-digito (gawo 4.3)

Ndapanga kuti pali kupitiliza pakati pa kafukufuku wamakina ndi masukulu, ndipo ena ofufuza apanga zolemba zambiri, makamaka zomwe zimasiyanitsa mitundu yosiyanasiyana yamayesero (Harrison and List 2004; Charness, Gneezy, and Kuhn 2013) .

Mapepala angapo afanizira ma labata ndi ma experiments m'maganizo (Falk and Heckman 2009; Cialdini 2009) komanso motsatira zotsatira za zofufuza zandale (Coppock and Green 2015) , Economics (Levitt and List 2007a, 2007b; Camerer 2011; Al-Ubaydli and List 2013) , ndi psychology (Mitchell 2012) . Jerit, Barabas, and Clifford (2013) amapereka kafukufuku wabwino poyerekeza zotsatira za kalasi ndi kuyesera. Parigi, Santana, and Cook (2017) akulongosola momwe machitidwe a pa Intaneti akuyendera angagwirizane ndi machitidwe ena a lab ndi masewera.

Kuda nkhawa ndi anthu omwe akusintha khalidwe lawo chifukwa amadziwa kuti akuwoneka bwino nthawi zina amatchedwa zotsatira zofunikira , ndipo akhala akuphunzira mu psychology (Orne 1962) ndi zachuma (Zizzo 2010) . Ngakhale kuti zambiri zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi ma experiments a lab, zofanana zomwezi zingayambitse mavuto pamayeso. Ndipotu, zofunikanso nthawi zina amatchedwa Hawthorne zotsatira , mawu omwe amapeza mayesero otchuka ounikira omwe anayamba mu 1924 ku Hawthorne Works ya Western Electric Company (Adair 1984; Levitt and List 2011) . Zonsezi zimafuna zotsatira ndi zotsatira za Hawthorne zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi lingaliro la kuchepetsa mphamvu zomwe zafotokozedwa mu chaputala 2 (onaninso Webb et al. (1966) ).

Masewera a m'munda akhala ndi mbiri yakale muchuma (Levitt and List 2009) , sayansi ya ndale (Green and Gerber 2003; Druckman et al. 2006; Druckman and Lupia 2012) , psychology (Shadish 2002) , ndi ndondomeko ya boma (Shadish and Cook 2009) . Chigawo chimodzi cha sayansi ya zachikhalidwe komwe malo oyesa kuyesera mwamsanga anayamba kutchuka ndi chitukuko cha mayiko. Kuti muwone bwino ntchito imeneyi mu Economics onani Banerjee and Duflo (2009) , ndipo pofuna kuwunika kovuta onani Deaton (2010) . Pofufuza ntchitoyi mu sayansi ya ndale onani Humphreys and Weinstein (2009) . Potsirizira pake, chikhalidwe chotsutsana ndi zofufuza (Humphreys 2015; Desposato 2016b) pa nkhani ya sayansi ya ndale (Humphreys 2015; Desposato 2016b) ndi chuma cha chitukuko (Baele 2013) .

M'chigawo chino, ndinapempha kuti chithandizo cha chithandizo cha chithandizo chisanachitike chikhoza kugwiritsidwa ntchito kuti zikhale bwino kuti zitha kuthandizidwa, koma pali kutsutsana kwa njirayi; onani Freedman (2008) , W. Lin (2013) , Berk et al. (2013) , ndi Bloniarz et al. (2016) kuti mudziwe zambiri.

Potsirizira pake, pali mitundu iwiri ya zoyesayesa zomwe akatswiri a sayansi amagwiritsa ntchito zomwe sizingagwirizane bwino pambali ya malo a labu: kuyesa kafukufuku ndi mayesero. Zofufuza zapadera ndizoyesa kugwiritsa ntchito zowonongeka kafukufuku omwewo ndi kuyerekeza mayankho ku machitidwe ena omwewo. (Zofufuza zina zafotokozedwa pa Chaputala 3); Kuti mudziwe zambiri pazomwe Mutz (2011) poona Mutz (2011) . Zomwe anthu amayesa ndizofufuza pamene mankhwalawa ndi ndondomeko ya chikhalidwe yomwe ingagwiritsidwe ntchito ndi boma. Zomwe anthu amayesa zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi kafukufuku wamapulogalamu. Kuti mudziwe zambiri pa zoyesayesa, onani Heckman and Smith (1995) , Orr (1998) , ndi @ glennerster_running_2013.

• Kusuntha zopitirira zosavuta (gawo 4.4)

Ndasankha kuganizira mfundo zitatu: zowona, zowonongeka za zotsatira za mankhwala, ndi njira. Maganizo awa ali ndi mayina osiyanasiyana mmadera osiyanasiyana. Mwachitsanzo, akatswiri a zamaganizo amatha kusuntha zophweka pokhapokha ataganizira oyankhulana ndi oyang'anira (Baron and Kenny 1986) . Lingaliro la oyimira pakati likugwiridwa ndi zomwe ndimayitanitsa njira, ndipo lingaliro la otsogolera likugwiridwa ndi zomwe ndikuzitcha kuti zenizeni zenizeni (mwachitsanzo, zotsatira za kuyeserera zingakhale zosiyana ngati zikuthamangitsidwa m'madera osiyanasiyana) ndi kusagwirizana kwa zotsatira za mankhwala ( Mwachitsanzo, zotsatira zake zikuluzikulu kwa anthu ena kuposa ena).

Kuyesedwa kwa Schultz et al. (2007) ikuwonetseratu momwe magulu a anthu angagwiritsidwe ntchito kupanga mapulogalamu othandiza. Kuti mumve zambiri pa udindo wa chiphunzitso polemba njira zothandiza, onani Walton (2014) .

• Kuvomerezeka (gawo 4.4.1)

Campbell (1957) anayamba kufotokozera za mkati ndi kunja. Onani Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) kuti mudziwe mbiri yakale komanso kusanthula mosapita m'mbali ziwerengero zomveka bwino, zenizeni zenizeni, zomangamanga, ndi zogwirizana.

Kuti mudziwe mwachidule nkhani zokhudzana ndi ziwerengero zomwe zatsimikiziridwa kuti zakhala zogwirizana ndi zowonetsera, onani Gerber and Green (2012) (kuchokera ku zokhudzana ndi sayansi) ndi Imbens and Rubin (2015) ). Zina mwa zowerengera zomwe zimatsimikizirika zenizeni zomwe zimayambira pazomwe zimayesedwa pa intaneti zimaphatikizapo zinthu monga njira zogwiritsira ntchito zogwiritsira ntchito njira zopangira chidaliro ndi deta yodalira (Bakshy and Eckles 2013) .

Zovomerezeka zamkati zingakhale zovuta kuonetsetsa mu zovuta zovuta kumunda. Onani, Gerber and Green (2000) , Imai (2005) , ndi Gerber and Green (2005) kuti akambirane za kukhazikitsidwa kwa ntchito yovuta yokhudza kuvota. Kohavi et al. (2012) ndi Kohavi et al. (2013) amapereka zowonjezera m'mayesero ovomerezeka pazomwe zimayesedwa pa intaneti.

Chinthu chimodzi choopsya kuti chikhale chovomerezeka mkati mwathu ndicho kuthekera kwa kulephera kuchita zinthu mosavuta. Njira imodzi yomwe ingathandizire kupeza vuto ndi kusintha kwake ndi kuyerekeza magulu ochizira ndi olamulira pa zizindikiro zooneka. Kuyerekezera kotereku kumatchedwa kuyendera bwino . Onani Hansen and Bowers (2008) kuti Mutz and Pemantle (2015) mayeso ndi Mutz and Pemantle (2015) chifukwa cha nkhawa zowunika. Mwachitsanzo, pogwiritsa ntchito kufufuza Allcott (2011) , Allcott (2011) adapeza umboni wosonyeza kuti kusintha kwapadera sikukugwiritsidwa ntchito moyenera mu machitidwe atatu Opower (onani tebulo 2; malo 2, 6, ndi 8). Kwa njira zina, onani mutu 21 wa Imbens and Rubin (2015) .

Zina mwazinthu zazikulu zokhudzana ndi zowoneka bwino ndi izi: (1) osagwirizanitsa limodzi, omwe onse omwe ali m'gulu lachipatala adalandira chithandizochi, (2) osagwirizanitsa mbali ziwiri, pomwe onse omwe ali kuchipatala amalandira chithandizo ndi anthu ena gulu lolamulira likulandira chithandizo, (3) mawonekedwe, komwe zotsatira siziwerengedwa kwa ena, ndipo (4) kusokoneza, kumene mankhwala amatha kuchokera kwa anthu omwe ali ndi chikhalidwe cha chithandizo kwa anthu omwe ali ndi vutoli. Onani machaputala 5, 6, 7, ndi 8 a Gerber and Green (2012) kuti mudziwe zambiri pazinthu izi.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri pa zomangamanga, onani Westen and Rosenthal (2003) , ndi zina zowonjezera kuti mukhale ndi chidziwitso pazomwe mungapezeko, Lazer (2015) ndi chaputala 2 cha buku ili.

Mbali imodzi yowonjezera yeniyeni ndiyomwe mipata imayesedwera. Allcott (2015) imapereka chithandizo chodziwikiratu komanso chongopeka cha malo osankhidwa a malo. Nkhaniyi ikufotokozedwanso ndi Deaton (2010) . Mbali ina yowonjezera yeniyeni ndiyo ngati njira zosavomerezeka zosagwiritsidwa ntchito zofananazi zidzakhalanso zofanana. Pachifukwa ichi, kuyerekezera pakati pa Schultz et al. (2007) ndi Allcott (2011) akuwonetsa kuti kuyesera kwa Opower kunali ndi zotsatira zochepa zogwira ntchito kusiyana ndi kuyesedwa koyambirira kwa Schultz ndi anzake (1.7% poyerekeza ndi 5%). Allcott (2011) anaganiza kuti kuyesayesa kutsata kunali kochepa chifukwa cha njira zomwe chithandizocho chinasiyanasiyana: chidziwitso cholembedwa pamanja monga gawo la phunziro lothandizidwa ndi yunivesite, poyerekeza ndi emoticon yosindikizidwa monga gawo la zopangidwa ndi misala lipoti lochokera ku kampani yamagetsi.

• Kuchepetsa mphamvu za mankhwala (gawo 4.4.2)

Kuti mudziwe bwino za zotsatira zowonongeka kwa mankhwala pazomwe zili m'munda, onani mutu 12 wa Gerber and Green (2012) . Kuti mumve mauthenga okhudza kusagwirizana kwa zotsatira za mankhwala m'zochitika zamankhwala, onani Kent and Hayward (2007) , Longford (1999) , ndi Kravitz, Duan, and Braslow (2004) . Kuganizira za kusagwirizana kwa zotsatira za mankhwala nthawi zambiri kumaganizira kusiyana kwa zochitika zisanachitike. Ngati mukufuna kugonana kosagwirizana ndi zotsatira za chithandizo cham'tsogolo, ndiye kuti njira zovuta zowonjezereka zikufunika, monga stratification yaikulu (Frangakis and Rubin 2002) ; onaninso Page et al. (2015) kuti mudziwe.

Akatswiri ambiri amafufuzira kuti njira zochepetsera mankhwala zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pogwiritsa ntchito njira yatsopano, koma njira zatsopano zimadalira kuphunzira makina; onani, mwachitsanzo, Green and Kern (2012) , Imai and Ratkovic (2013) , Taddy et al. (2016) , ndi Athey and Imbens (2016a) .

Pali zokayikitsa zokhudzana ndi zovuta zogwirizanitsa ndi "kusodza." Pali njira zosiyanasiyana zomwe zingathandize kuthetsa mavuto osiyana siyana (Fink, McConnell, and Vollmer 2014; List, Shaikh, and Xu 2016) . Njira imodzi yokhudzana ndi "nsomba" ndiyomwe isanatumizidwe, yomwe ikufala kwambiri pazinthu zamaganizo (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , sayansi ya ndale (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) , ndi zachuma (Olken 2015) .

Mu phunziro la Costa and Kahn (2013) pafupifupi theka la mabanja omwe akuyesedwa akhoza kugwirizanitsidwa ndi chidziwitso cha anthu. Owerenga omwe ali ndi chidwi pa mfundo izi ayenera kutchula pepala lapachiyambi.

• Njira (gawo 4.4.3)

Njira ndizofunika kwambiri, koma zimakhala zovuta kwambiri kuphunzira. Kafukufuku wokhudzana ndi njira zogwirizana kwambiri ndi kufufuza kwa oyankhulana (psychological) (koma onaninso VanderWeele (2009) pofuna kufanizitsa pakati pa malingaliro awiri). Njira zokhudzana ndi kupeza njira, monga momwe zinakhalira ku Baron and Kenny (1986) , ndizofala. Mwamwayi, zotsatilazi zimadalira ziganizo zamphamvu (Bullock, Green, and Ha 2010) ndipo zimamva zowawa ngati pali njira zambiri, monga momwe angayembekezere (Imai and Yamamoto 2013; VanderWeele and Vansteelandt 2014) . Imai et al. (2011) ndi Imai and Yamamoto (2013) amapereka njira zowunikira. Komanso, VanderWeele (2015) amapereka chithandizo cha kutalika kwa bukhu ndi zotsatira zofunikira zambiri, kuphatikizapo njira yowonjezereka yofufuza.

Njira yosiyana imayang'ana pa zoyesayesa zomwe zimayesa kugwiritsa ntchito njirayi mwachindunji (mwachitsanzo, kupereka oyenda mavitamini C). Mwamwayi, m'makonzedwe ambiri a sayansi, nthawi zambiri pali njira zambiri ndipo n'zovuta kupanga mankhwala omwe amasintha wina osasintha ena. Njira zina zomwe zimayendera njira zowonongeka zimayikidwa ndi Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto (2013) , Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan (2011) , ndi Pirlott and MacKinnon (2016) .

Ochita kafukufuku akuyesa zochitika zowonongeka bwino ayenera kudera nkhawa za kuyezetsa magazi ambiri; onani Fink, McConnell, and Vollmer (2014) ndi List, Shaikh, and Xu (2016) kuti mudziwe zambiri.

Potsirizira pake, njira zakhala ndi mbiri yakalekale mu filosofi ya sayansi monga momwe Hedström and Ylikoski (2010) adalongosolera.

• Pogwiritsa ntchito mapangidwe omwe alipo (gawo 4.5.1)

Kuti mudziwe zambiri zokhudza kugwiritsa ntchito makalata olembera makalata komanso kufufuza kafukufuku kuti muyese tsankho, onani Pager (2007) .

• Dzipange nokha (gawo 4.5.2)

Njira yowonjezereka yopempha ophunzira kuti ayese kuyesa ndi Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk). Chifukwa MTURK imatsanzira mbali za anthu omwe amapereka ma experiments omwe amapereka ntchito kuti asamalize ntchito zomwe sangachite kwaulere-ambiri ofufuza ayamba kale kugwiritsa ntchito Turkers (ogwira ntchito pa MTURK) monga ochita masewera, zomwe zimabweretsa kusonkhanitsa deta mofulumira komanso kosavuta kuposa zomwe zingatheke Pulogalamu ya ma laboratory yowonjezera (Paolacci, Chandler, and Ipeirotis 2010; Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012; Rand 2012; Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) .

Kawirikawiri, ubwino waukulu kwambiri wogwiritsa ntchito ophunzira omwe akulembedwera kuchokera ku MTURK ndizolondola. Ngakhale kuti kafukufuku wa ma labata angatenge masabata kuti ayambe kuyesa ndi kuyesa masitepe angatenge miyezi kuti athe kukhazikitsa, kuyesera komwe ophunzira omwe adatumizidwe kuchokera ku MTURK akhoza kutha masiku. Mwachitsanzo, Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz (2012) adatha kupeza maphunziro 400 tsiku limodzi kuti athe kutenga nawo mbali pa kuyesera kwa miniti 8. Kuwonjezera apo, ophunzirawa angathe kulembedwa mwachindunji (kuphatikizapo kufufuza ndi kugwirizanitsa, monga momwe tafotokozera m'machaputala 3 ndi 5). Izi zimathandiza kuti ochita kafukufuku azitha kufufuza zotsatizana.

Musanayambe kuitanitsa ophunzira kuchokera ku MTURUK kuti mudziwe nokha, pali zinthu zinayi zofunika zomwe muyenera kuzidziwa. Choyamba, ochita kafukufuku ambiri alibe kukayikira kwenikweni kwa mayesero okhudza Turkers. Chifukwa chokayikira ichi sichidziwika, n'zovuta kutsutsana ndi umboni. Komabe, patapita zaka zingapo za maphunziro pogwiritsa ntchito Turkers, tsopano tikhoza kunena kuti kukayika izi sikungakhale koyenera. Pakhala pali maphunziro ochuluka oyerekeza chiwerengero cha anthu otchedwa Turkers ndi ena a anthu ena komanso maphunziro ambiri poyerekeza zotsatira za mayesero ndi a Turkers omwe amachokera kwa anthu ena. Chifukwa cha ntchitoyi yonse, ndikuganiza kuti njira yabwino kwambiri yoti muganizire ndikuti Turkers ndi chitsanzo chabwino, mofanana ndi ophunzira koma mosiyana (Berinsky, Huber, and Lenz 2012) . Kotero, monga momwe ophunzira alili omveka bwino kwa ena, koma osati onse, kufufuza, Turkers ali oyenerera kwa ena, koma osati onse, kufufuza. Ngati mutagwira ntchito ndi Turkers, ndizomveka kuti muwerenge zambiri mwaziwerengerozi komanso kumvetsetsa zomwe zimachitika.

Chachiwiri, ochita kafukufuku apanga njira zabwino zowonjezera kuyesayesa kwa MTurk, ndipo muyenera kuphunzira ndi kutsatira njira zabwinozi (Horton, Rand, and Zeckhauser 2011; Mason and Suri 2012) . Mwachitsanzo, ofufuza omwe amagwiritsa ntchito Turkers akulimbikitsidwa kuti agwiritse ntchito zojambulazo kuti achotse anthu (Berinsky, Margolis, and Sances 2014, 2016) (koma onaninso DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015b) ndi DJ Hauser and Schwarz (2015a) ). Ngati simukuchotsa ophunzira osayang'anitsitsa, ndiye kuti zotsatira zake za mankhwala angathe kutsukidwa ndi phokoso lomwe akulowetsamo, ndipo pakuchita chiwerengero cha anthu osayang'anitsitsa akhoza kukhala ofunika. Mu kuyesera kwa Huber ndi anzake (2012) , pafupifupi 30 peresenti ya ophunzira adalephera kuyang'anitsitsa. Mavuto ena omwe amapezeka nthawi zambiri pamene anthu otchedwa Turkers amagwiritsidwa ntchito ndi anthu omwe si azimayi (Chandler et al. 2015) ndi attrition (Zhou and Fishbach 2016) .

Chachitatu, poyerekezera ndi njira zina zamagetsi, mayesero a MTurk sangathe kukula; Stewart et al. (2015) onetsetsani kuti pa nthawi iliyonse pali anthu pafupifupi 7,000 pa MTURK.

Pomaliza, muyenera kudziwa kuti MTurk ndi dera lomwe lili ndi malamulo ake komanso malamulo (Mason and Suri 2012) . Mofananamo momwe mungayesere kudziwa za chikhalidwe cha dziko limene mukupita kukayesa mayesero anu, muyenera kufufuza zambiri zokhudza chikhalidwe ndi zikhalidwe za Turkers (Salehi et al. 2015) . Ndipo muyenera kudziwa kuti a Turkers adzakhala akunena za kuyesa kwanu ngati mukuchita cholakwika kapena chosayenera (Gray et al. 2016) .

MTURK ndi njira yabwino kwambiri yokonzekeretsera ophunzira anu kuyesa, kaya ali ndi labata, monga Huber, Hill, and Lenz (2012) , kapena zambiri, ngati za Mason and Watts (2009) , Goldstein, McAfee, and Suri (2013) , Goldstein et al. (2014) , Horton and Zeckhauser (2016) , ndi Mao et al. (2016) .

• Mangani mankhwala anu (gawo 4.5.3)

Ngati mukuganiza kuti mukuyesera kupanga zokolola zanu, ndikukupemphani kuti muwerenge malangizo omwe gulu la MovieLens likupereka ku Harper and Konstan (2015) . Chidziwitso chofunikira kuchokera pazochitika zawo ndi chakuti pulojekiti iliyonse yabwino ilipo zambiri, zolephera zambiri. Mwachitsanzo, gulu la MovieLens linayambitsa zinthu zina, monga GopherAnswers, zomwe zinali zolephera kwathunthu (Harper and Konstan 2015) . Chitsanzo china cha wochita kafukufuku akulephera pamene akuyesera kupanga chojambula ndiyeso la Edward Castronova lopanga masewera a pa Intaneti otchedwa Arden. Ngakhale kuti ndalama zokwana madola 250,000 zinkathandizidwa, polojekitiyi inadumpha (Baker 2008) . Zolinga monga GopherAnswers ndi Arden ndizosautsa kwambiri kuposa ntchito monga MovieLens.

• Wokondedwa ndi amphamvu (gawo 4.5.4)

Ndamva lingaliro la Quadrant la Pasteur lomwe limakambidwa mobwerezabwereza ku makampani opanga chitukuko, ndipo limathandiza kupanga zofufuza pa Google (Spector, Norvig, and Petrov 2012) .

Chigwirizano ndi ogwirizana nawo (2012) amayesetsanso kupeza zotsatira za mankhwalawa kwa abwenzi a iwo omwe adalandira. Chifukwa cha kuyesedwa kwa kuyesera, izi zimakhala zovuta kuziwona bwino; Owerenga chidwi ayenera kuona Bond et al. (2012) kuti mukambirane mozama. Jones ndi anzako (2017) adachitanso chimodzimodzi kuyesa pa chisankho cha 2012. Kuyesera kumeneku ndi mbali ya kachitidwe kafukufuku wa sayansi zandale pa zoyesayesa kulimbikitsa kuvota (Green and Gerber 2015) . Zomwe zimayesedwazi ndizofala, mbali imodzi chifukwa ziri mu Pasteur's Quadrant. Izi zikutanthauza kuti pali anthu ambiri amene akulimbikitsidwa kuti awonjezere kuvota komanso kuvota kungakhale khalidwe losangalatsa kuti ayese zowonjezereka zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwa khalidwe ndi chikhalidwe.

Kuti mudziwe zokhudzana ndi kuyesa masewera ndi mabungwe omwe akugwirizana nawo monga maphwando apolisi, NGOs, ndi malonda, onani Loewen, Rubenson, and Wantchekon (2010) , JA List (2011) , ndi Gueron (2002) . Kuti mudziwe momwe maubwenzi ndi mabungwe angakhudzire mapangidwe kafukufuku, onani King et al. (2007) ndi Green, Calfano, and Aronow (2014) . Chiyanjano chingathenso kumabweretsa mafunso abwino, monga momwe anafotokozera ndi Humphreys (2015) ndi Nickerson and Hyde (2016) .

• Malangizo apangidwe (gawo 4.6)

Ngati mupanga ndondomeko yowunika musanayese kuyesa kwanu, ndikupangitsani kuti muyambe mwa kuwerenga malangizo. Mndandanda wa CONSORT (Consolidated Standard Reporting of Trials) unakhazikitsidwa mu mankhwala (Schulz et al. 2010) ndipo anasinthidwa kuti apange kafukufuku wa anthu (Mayo-Wilson et al. 2013) . Mndandanda Mutz and Pemantle (2015) wapangidwa ndi olemba a Journal of Experimental Political Science (Gerber et al. 2014) (onaninso Mutz and Pemantle (2015) ndi Gerber et al. (2015) ). Potsirizira pake, ndondomeko zowunikira zafotokozedwa mu psychology (APA Working Group 2008) , ndikuwonanso Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn (2011) .

Ngati mupanga ndondomeko yowunika, muyenera kulingalira kale musanalembereni chifukwa chisanadze kulembetsa chidzawonjezera chidaliro chimene ena ali nacho mu zotsatira zanu. Komanso, ngati mukugwira ntchito ndi mnzanu, zingachepetse mphamvu ya wokondedwa wanu kusintha kusanthula mutatha kuona zotsatira. (Nosek and Lakens 2014) kumafala kwambiri m'maganizo (Nosek and Lakens 2014) , sayansi ya ndale (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013; Monogan 2013; Anderson 2013; Gelman 2013; Laitin 2013) , ndi Economics (Olken 2015) .

Malangizo apangidwe makamaka pazomwe zimayesedwa pa intaneti akuwonetsedwanso ku Konstan and Chen (2007) ndi Chen and Konstan (2015) .

Chimene ndatcha ndondomeko ya armada nthawi zina amatchedwa kufufuza pulogalamu ; onani Wilson, Aronson, and Carlsmith (2010) .

• Pangani chiwerengero cha mtengo wotsika (gawo 4.6.1)

Kuti mudziwe zambiri pa zojambula za MusicLab, onani Salganik, Dodds, and Watts (2006) , Salganik and Watts (2008) , Salganik and Watts (2009b) , Salganik and Watts (2009a) , ndi Salganik (2007) . Kuti mudziwe zambiri pa msika wogonjetsa, onani Frank and Cook (1996) . Kuti mudziwe zambiri zokhudza kutulutsa mwayi ndi luso zambiri, onani Mauboussin (2012) , Watts (2012) , ndi Frank (2016) .

Pali njira ina yothetsera malipiro omwe ophunzira akuyenera kuwagwiritsa ntchito mosamala. Pazinthu zambiri zamakono zowonongeka magulu a anthu akutsatiridwa kuti ayesedwe ndikuyesedwa. Zitsanzo za njirayi zikuphatikizapo Restivo ndi van de Rijt's (2012) kuyesera pa mphoto mu Wikipedia ndi Bond ndi anzake (2012) kuyesa pofuna kulimbikitsa anthu kuti avotere. Kuyesera uku sikuli ndi ndalama zosiyana-kani, iwo ali ndi ndalama zosinthika kwa ofufuza . Muzoyesera zotero, ngakhale mtengo wa wophunzira aliyense ndi wochepa kwambiri, mtengo wake wonse ukhoza kukhala waukulu kwambiri. Ochita kafukufuku akuyesa kufufuza kwambiri pa intaneti nthawi zambiri amatsimikizira kufunika kwa zotsatira zochepa za mankhwala powauza kuti zotsatira zochepazi zingakhale zofunikira pamene zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kwa anthu ambiri. Kulingalira komweku kumagwirizana ndi ndalama zomwe ochita kafukufuku amapereka kwa ophunzira. Ngati kuyesa kwanu kumayambitsa anthu miliyoni imodzi kutaya miniti imodzi, kuyesera sikovulaza munthu wina aliyense, koma palimodzi izo zawonongeka pafupifupi zaka ziwiri.

Njira ina yopangira ndalama zowonjezera ndalama kwa ophunzira ndi kugwiritsa ntchito lottery, njira yomwe idagwiritsidwanso ntchito mufukufuku wopenda (Halpern et al. 2011) . Kuti mudziwe zambiri zokhudza kupanga zojambula zosangalatsa za osuta, onani Toomim et al. (2011) . Kuti mudziwe zambiri zokhudza kugwiritsira ntchito bots kuti mupange zero zowonjezera mtengo onani ( ??? ) .

• Bwezerani, Pendetsani, ndi Kuchepetsa (gawo 4.6.2)

Zaka zitatu za R zomwe poyamba zinakambidwa ndi Russell and Burch (1959) ndi izi:

"M'malo zikutanthauza M'MALO amazindikira wamoyo nyama apamwamba a chuma insentient. Kuchepetsa amatanthauza kuchepetsa chiwerengero cha nyama ntchito kuti mudziwe za kuchuluka anapatsidwa ndi cholondola. Kuyengedwa zikutanthauza kuchepa mu zochitika kapena zovuta njira wodyerana ntchito nyama zimene adakali ndi kugwiritsidwa ntchito. "

Zomwe R zomwe ndikupempha sizingasokoneze mfundo za makhalidwe abwino zomwe zafotokozedwa mu chaputala 6. M'malo mwake, ndizofotokozedwa bwino kwambiri mwa mfundo zomwezo-zopindula-makamaka momwe anthu akuyesera.

Pogwiritsa ntchito yoyamba R ("m'malo"), poyerekeza ndi kuyesedwa kwapadera (Kramer, Guillory, and Hancock 2014) komanso kuyesedwa kwachilengedwe (Lorenzo Coviello et al. 2014) amaphunzitsa zambiri za malonda pakuyenda kuchokera kuyesayesa kupita kuyesayesa zachirengedwe (ndi njira zina zowoneka kuti zikuyesa kuyesa pafupi ndi deta yosadziwika; onani chaputala 2). Kuphatikiza pa zomwe zimapindulitsa, kusintha kuchokera ku kuyesa kupita ku maphunziro osayesera kumathandizanso ochita kafukufuku kuti aphunzire mankhwala omwe sangathe kuwathandiza. Zopindulitsa za makhalidwe abwino ndi zogwirizana nazo zimadza pa mtengo, komabe. Akatswiri ofufuza sayenera kuchita zinthu zochepa pochita zinthu monga kukonzekera anthu, kuwongolera, komanso chithandizo cha mankhwala. Mwachitsanzo, kuchepa kwa mvula monga chithandizo ndiko kuti zonsezi zimachulukitsa chidziwitso ndipo zimachepetsa kusagwirizana. Komabe, mu phunziro la kuyesera, Kramer ndi anzake adatha kusintha kusintha ndi kusasamala mwadzidzidzi. Njira yapadera yomwe Lorenzo Coviello et al. (2014) inafotokozedwa ndi L. Coviello, Fowler, and Franceschetti (2014) . Kuti muyambe kufotokozera zinthu zosiyanasiyana, njira yomwe Lorenzo Coviello et al. (2014) , onani Angrist and Pischke (2009) ( Angrist, Imbens, and Rubin (1996) ) kapena Angrist, Imbens, and Rubin (1996) (omveka bwino). Kuti muone ngati mukuganiza kuti pali zinthu zosiyanasiyana zomwe mungachite, onani Deaton (2010) , komanso kuti muyambe kufotokozera zida zamagetsi ndi zofooka (mvula ndi chida chofooka), onani Murray (2006) . Kawirikawiri, kulongosola bwino kwa masoka achilengedwe kumaperekedwa ndi Dunning (2012) , pamene Rosenbaum (2002) , ( ??? ) , ndi Shadish, Cook, and Campbell (2001) amapereka malingaliro abwino onena za kuyeretsa zotsatira popanda kuyesa.

Malinga ndi yachiwiri R ("kukonzanso"), pali zogwirizana ndi sayansi ndi zovomerezeka pamene mukuganiza kusintha kusinthika kwa Kutengeka Kwachisomo kuchotsa zolemba kuti zikulitse malo. Mwachitsanzo, zikhoza kukhala choncho kuti ntchito yamakono ya News Feed ikhale yosavuta kuti ayese kuyesa momwe zikhomo zatsekedwa m'malo momwe zimakhazikika (onani kuti kuyesa kutseka zolemba kungathe kukhazikitsidwa monga wosanjikiza pamwamba pa News Feed dongosolo popanda kufunikira kosintha kwa kayendedwe kake). Komabe, sayansi, chiphunzitso chomwe chinayesedwa ndi kuyesera sikunatanthawuze bwino kamangidwe kamodzi pamzake. Mwamwayi, sindikudziwa kafukufuku wapaderadera pazomwe zili zoyenerera kutseka ndi kupititsa patsogolo zomwe zili mu News Feed. Komanso, sindinayambe kufufuza zambiri zokhudza kuyeretsa mankhwala kuti asamawonongeke; Chinthu chimodzi ndi B. Jones and Feamster (2015) , omwe amalingalira nkhani ya kuyeza kwa intaneti (mutu womwe ndikukambirana pa chaputala 6 mu chiyanjano cha maphunziro a Encore (Burnett and Feamster 2015; Narayanan and Zevenbergen 2015) ).

Ponena za gawo lachitatu R ("kuchepetsa"), mafotokozedwe abwino a kafukufuku wamagetsi amaperekedwa ndi Cohen (1988) (bukhu) ndi Cohen (1992) (nkhani), pomwe Gelman and Carlin (2014) akuwonekera mosiyana. Zolemba za mankhwala oyambitsa mankhwala zingaphatikizidwe mu mapangidwe ndi kusanthula gawo la kuyesera; Chaputala 4 cha Gerber and Green (2012) chimapereka chithunzithunzi chabwino pa njira zonsezi, ndipo Casella (2008) amapereka chithandizo chokwanira. Njira zomwe zimagwiritsa ntchito chidziwitso cha chithandizo cha chithandizo chisanachitike nthawi zambiri zimatchedwa zojambula zosayesedwa kapena zojambula zosayesedwa (mawu osagwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zonse m'madera onse); Njirazi zimagwirizana kwambiri ndi njira zomwe zatchulidwa mu chaputala 3. Onani Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon (2016) kuti mudziwe zambiri pogwiritsa ntchito zojambulazo pakufufuza kwakukulu. Zolemba zothandizidwa kale zingaphatikizedwenso pakusanthula gawo. McKenzie (2012) akufufuza njira yosiyana-yosiyana pofuna kufufuza zofufuza zapadera mwatsatanetsatane. Onani Carneiro, Lee, and Wilhelm (2016) kuti mupeze zambiri pa malonda pakati pa njira zosiyana siyana kuti muwonjeze bwino momwe mungagwiritsire ntchito mankhwala. Pomaliza, posankha ngati mukufuna kuyambitsa mapepala oyendetsa chithandizo pamakonzedwe kapena kafukufuku (kapena onse), pali zifukwa zingapo zofunika kuziganizira. Pa malo omwe ochita kafukufuku akufuna kuti asonyeze kuti sali "kusodza" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , kugwiritsa ntchito (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) angakhale othandiza (Higgins, Sävje, and Sekhon 2016) . Pamene anthu akufika pamagulu, makamaka magulu a pa Intaneti, kugwiritsa ntchito chithandizo cha chithandizo cha mankhwala asanakhalepo kovuta; onani, mwachitsanzo, Xie and Aurisset (2016) .

Ndikofunika kuwonjezera pang'ono za chidziwitso cha chifukwa chake kusiyana pakati pa kusiyana kungakhale kovuta kwambiri kuposa kusiyana-mu-kumatanthauza chimodzi. Zotsatira zambiri pa intaneti zili ndi kusiyana kwakukulu (onani, RA Lewis and Rao (2015) ndi Lamb et al. (2015) ) ndipo amakhalabe olimba pa nthawi. Pachifukwa ichi, kusintha kwake kudzakhala ndi kusiyana kwakukulu, kuwonjezera mphamvu ya mayeso owerengetsera. Chifukwa chimodzi chomwe chizoloŵezichi sichigwiritsidwa ntchito nthawi zambiri ndi chakuti asanakhale ndi zaka za digito, sizinali zachilendo kukhala ndi zotsatira zowononga. Njira yowonjezereka yoganizira izi ndi kulingalira kuyesa kuyesa ngati zochitika zina zolimbitsa thupi zimayambitsa kulemera. Ngati mutenga njira yosiyana-siyana, kulingalira kwanu kudzakhala kosiyana chifukwa cha kusiyana kwa zolemera pakati pa anthu. Ngati muchita zosiyana-siyana-kusiyana-siyana, komabe, kusintha kwachilengedwe kumachotsedwa, ndipo mukhoza kuzindikira mosavuta kusiyana kwa mankhwala.

Pomaliza, ndinaganiza kuwonjezera pachinayi R: "repurpose". Izi zikutanthauza kuti ngati ochita kafukufuku ali ndi deta yowonjezera kuposa momwe akufunira kuti ayankhe funso lawo loyambirira la kafukufuku, ayenera kubwezeretsa deta kuti afunse mafunso atsopano. Mwachitsanzo, taganizirani kuti Kramer ndi anzake adagwiritsa ntchito zowerengera zosiyana-siyana ndipo adzipeza okha ndi deta kuposa momwe anafunikira kuti athetsere funso lawo lofufuza. M'malo mogwiritsa ntchito deta lonselo, iwo akanakhoza kuwerengera kukula kwa zotsatira monga ntchito ya chithandizo chamankhwala chisanachitike. Monga momwe Schultz et al. (2007) adapeza kuti zotsatira za chithandizochi zinali zosiyana ndi ogwiritsa ntchito bwino komanso olemera, mwinamwake zotsatira za News Feed zinali zosiyana kwa anthu omwe kale ankafuna kufalitsa mauthenga achimwemwe (kapena achisoni). Kupititsa patsogolo kumachititsa kuti "asodzi" (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) komanso "p-hacking" (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) , koma izi zimakhala zovomerezeka ndi kuwonetsa zoona (Simmons, Nelson, and Simonsohn 2011) , chisanadze kulembetsa (Humphreys, Sierra, and Windt 2013) , ndi njira zophunzirira makina zomwe zimapewa kupitirira.