4.4.3 zimagwirira

Zimene kudziwa zimene zinachitika. Njira kufotokoza chifukwa ndi m'mene zinachitikira.

Lingaliro lachiwiri lachinsinsi la kusuntha kupyolera pa zosavuta zophweka ndi njira . Ndondomeko zimatiuza chifukwa chake kapena momwe chithandizo chinayambira. Njira yofufuzira njira zimatchedwanso kuti kuyang'ana zosiyanasiyana zomwe zimakhalapo kapena kuyimira mitundu . Ngakhale kuti kuyesera kuli koyenera kulingalira zotsatira zavuto, nthawi zambiri sizinapangidwe kuti zisonyeze njira. Zomwe zimayesedwa pa digito zingatithandize kuzindikira njira ziwiri: (1) zimatithandiza kusonkhanitsa deta zambiri komanso (2) zimatipangitsa kuyesa chithandizo chamankhwala ambiri.

Chifukwa njira zimakhala zovuta kufotokozera mwachidule (Hedström and Ylikoski 2010) , ndikuyamba ndi chitsanzo chophweka: limes ndi scurvy (Gerber and Green 2012) . M'zaka za zana lachisanu ndi chitatu, madokotala anali ndi lingaliro labwino kuti pamene oyendetsa sitima ankadyera mandimu, sanapeze scurvy. Scurvy ndi matenda owopsya, kotero ichi chinali chidziwitso champhamvu. Koma madotolowa sanadziwe chifukwa chake mailesi analepheretsa. Kuyambira m'chaka cha 1932, patatha zaka pafupifupi 200, asayansi amatha kusonyeza kuti vitamini C ndiye chifukwa chake laimu inalepheretsa (Carpenter 1988, 191) . Pankhaniyi, vitamini C ndiyo njira yomwe maimu amapewa kutsekemera (chifaniziro 4.10). Zoonadi, kuzindikira njirayi ndikofunikira kwambiri sayansi-sayansi yambiri ndikumvetsa chifukwa chake zinthu zimachitika. Kudziwa njira ndizofunikira kwambiri. Tikadziŵa chifukwa chake mankhwala amathandizira, tingathe kukhazikitsa mankhwala atsopano omwe amagwira ntchito bwino.

Chithunzi 4.10: Malire amachititsa kuti piritsi ndi vitamini C. zisagwiritsidwe ntchito.

Mwatsoka, njira zodzipatula n'zovuta kwambiri. Mosiyana ndi ma limes ndi scurvy, m'magulu ambiri a chikhalidwe, mankhwala amatha kugwira ntchito kudzera m'mitunda yambiri. Komabe, poyendera miyambo ya anthu komanso kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu, ochita kafukufuku ayesa kudzipatula ndi kusonkhanitsa ndondomeko ya deta komanso mankhwala omwe akuyesedwa.

Njira imodzi yoyesera njira zotheka ndikusonkhanitsa ndondomeko ya momwe chithandizocho chinakhudzira njira zothekera. Mwachitsanzo, kumbukirani kuti Allcott (2011) inasonyeza kuti Home Energy Reports inachititsa anthu kuchepetsa kugwiritsira ntchito magetsi. Koma kodi izi zikusonyeza bwanji kugwiritsira ntchito magetsi m'munsi? Kodi njirazi zinali zotani? Mu phunziro lotsatira, Allcott and Rogers (2014) adagwirizana ndi kampani yamphamvu yomwe, kudzera mu pulogalamu ya rebate, idapeza zambiri za omwe ogulitsa apititsa patsogolo magetsi awo kuti apange zitsanzo zabwino zowonjezera mphamvu. Allcott and Rogers (2014) adapeza kuti anthu ochepa omwe amalandira Home Energy Reports anakonzanso zipangizo zawo. Koma kusiyana kumeneku kunali kochepa kwambiri moti kungathe kuwerengera 2 peresenti ya kuchepa kwa ntchito zamagetsi m'mabanja ochiritsidwa. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, kukonzanso kwazitsulo sikunali njira yaikulu yomwe Home Energy Report inachepetsera kugwiritsira ntchito magetsi.

Njira yachiwiri yophunzirira njira ndi kuyesa zatsopano ndi mankhwala osiyana pang'ono. Mwachitsanzo, pakuyesedwa kwa Schultz et al. (2007) ndi mayesero onse a Home Energy Report, ophunzirawa anapatsidwa chithandizo chomwe chinali ndi zigawo ziwiri (1) zothandiza zokhudzana ndi magetsi komanso (2) zokhudzana ndi kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zawo kwa anzawo (Chithunzi cha 4.6). Choncho, n'zotheka kuti malingaliro opulumutsa mphamvu ndi omwe amachititsa kusintha, osati chidziwitso cha anzawo. Pofuna kudziwa kuti nsonga zokhazo zikhoza kukhala zokwanira, Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) adayanjana ndi kampani ya madzi pafupi ndi Atlanta, Georgia, ndipo adayesa njira yowonjezera yosamalira madzi omwe ali ndi nyumba pafupifupi 100,000. Panali zinthu zinayi:

• gulu lomwe linalandira malangizo othandizira kupulumutsa madzi
• gulu lomwe linalandira malangizo othandizira kupulumutsa madzi kuphatikizapo chikhalidwe chofuna kusunga madzi
• gulu lomwe linalandira malangizo othandizira kupulumutsa madzi kuphatikizapo chikhalidwe chofuna kusunga madzi kuphatikizapo zambiri zokhudza ntchito yawo ya madzi ndi anzawo
• gulu lolamulira

Ofufuzawa adapeza kuti mankhwala okhawo amathandiza kuti madzi asagwiritsidwe ntchito mwachidule (chaka chimodzi), apakatikati (zaka ziwiri), ndi zaka (zaka zitatu). Malangizo pamodzi ndi chithandizo chopangitsa kuti ophunzira athe kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito madzi, koma kanthawi kochepa chabe. Potsirizira pake, malangizowo ndi chigwirizano kuphatikizapo chithandizo cha mbiri ya anzawo amachititsa kuchepa kugwiritsidwa ntchito mwachidule, chamkati, ndi nthawi yaitali (chithunzi 4.11). Mankhwalawa ndi njira zabwino zodziwira kuti ndi mbali yanji ya mankhwalawa-kapena ndi mbali ziti zomwe zimayambitsa (Gerber and Green 2012, sec. 10.6) . Mwachitsanzo, kuyesera kwa Ferraro ndi anzathu kumatiwonetsa kuti malingaliro opulumutsa madzi okha sali okwanira kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito madzi.

Chithunzi 4.11: Zotsatira za Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) . Chithandizo chinatumizidwa pa May 21, 2007, ndipo zotsatira zake zinayesedwa panthawi ya chisanu cha 2007, 2008, ndi 2009. Pofufuza mosamalitsa mankhwalawa, ochita kafukufuku ankayembekeza kuti azikhala ndi njira zabwino. Nsonga-mankhwala okhawo analibe zotsatirapo mwachidule (chaka chimodzi), pakati (zaka ziwiri), ndi zaka (zaka zitatu). Malangizo pamodzi ndi chithandizo chopangitsa kuti ophunzira athe kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito madzi, koma kanthawi kochepa chabe. Malangizowo kuphatikizapo pempho kuphatikizapo chithandizo cha mbiri ya anzawo amachititsa ophunzira kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito madzi mwapang'ono, apakati, ndi aatali. Zikuoneka kuti kudalirika kwapakati pazitsulo. Onani Bernedo, Ferraro, and Price (2014) kuti mupange zipangizo zenizeni zophunzirira. Kuchokera ku Ferraro, Miranda, and Price (2011) , patebulo 1.

Momwemonso, munthu amatha kudutsa pazigawo za zigawo zikuluzikulu (malangizo; malangizo ndi kuphatikiza, malangizo ndi chidziwitso kuphatikizapo chidziwitso cha anzako) pa zokonzedwa mwatsatanetsatane-nthawi zina zimatchedwa \(2^k\) zokongoletsera zokhazikika Zinthu zitatu zimayesedwa (tebulo 4.1). Poyesera njira iliyonse yomwe ingagwiritsidwe ntchito, ofufuza amatha kufufuza bwinobwino zotsatira za chigawo chilichonse mwa kudzipatula komanso kuphatikiza. Mwachitsanzo, kuyesera kwa Ferraro ndi anzake sikunatchule ngati kufanana kwa anzawo okha kungakhale kokwanira kuti zithe kusintha kwa nthawi yaitali. M'mbuyomu, zolemba zonsezi zakhala zovuta kuthamanga chifukwa zimafuna chiwerengero chachikulu cha ophunzira ndipo zimafuna kuti ochita kafukufuku athe kulamulira ndi kupereka mankhwala ambiri. Koma, muzochitika zina, zaka za digito zimachotsa zovuta zogwirizana nazo.

Mwachidule, njira-njira zomwe mankhwala amathandizira-ndizofunikira kwambiri. Zomwe zimagwiritsa ntchito digiri zingathandize ochita kafukufuku kudziwa za njira (1) kusonkhanitsa deta ndikupanga (2) kupanga zolemba zokwanira. Njira zomwe zotsatiridwa ndi njirazi zikhoza kuyesedwa mwachindunji ndi mayesero omwe adapangidwa kuti ayese njira (Ludwig, Kling, and Mullainathan 2011; Imai, Tingley, and Yamamoto 2013; Pirlott and MacKinnon 2016) .

Zonsezi, zizindikiro zitatu, zowonongeka kwa zotsatira zothandizira, ndi njira-zimapereka malingaliro amphamvu kuti apange ndi kutanthauzira zoyesera. Mfundozi zimathandiza akatswiri kuti asamangoganizira za "ntchito" zowonjezereka zomwe zikugwirizana kwambiri ndi chiphunzitso, zomwe zimasonyeza kuti ndichifukwa chiyani mankhwalawa amagwira ntchito, ndipo zomwe zingathandize ochita kafukufuku kupanga mankhwala othandiza. Chifukwa cha malingaliro awa onena za kuyesa, tsopano ndikuyang'ana momwe mungayesere kuyesera.