2.4.2 kulosera ndi nowcasting

Akuneneratu zam'tsogolo ndi zovuta, koma kunenera lino n'kosavuta.

Akatswiri ofufuza njira yachiwiri angagwiritse ntchito ndi chidziwitso chowonetseratu . Kupanga ziganizo zam'tsogolo ndi zovuta, ndipo mwina chifukwa chaichi, kufotokozera sikuli gawo lalikulu la kafukufuku wamagulu (ngakhale kuti ndi gawo laling'ono ndi lofunika kwambiri la demography, chuma, epidemiology ndi sayansi ya ndale). Pano, ine ndikufuna kuti ndiganizirepo za mtundu wapadera wotsimikizira kuti wotchedwa " castcasting ", yomwe ndi yochokera ku" tsopano "ndi" kuyerekezera. "M'malo mofotokozeratu zam'tsogolo, maulendowa akuyesera kugwiritsa ntchito malingaliro poyesa kulingalira kuti adziwe momwe zilili panopo dziko; amayesera "kuneneratu zamakono" (Choi and Varian 2012) . Tsopanocasting ikhoza kukhala yopindulitsa kwambiri kwa maboma ndi makampani omwe amafuna zochitika panthaŵi yake ndi yolondola.

Mmodzi akukhazikitsa kumene kufunika kwa nthawi yoyenera ndi yolondola kuyeza kumveka bwino kwambiri ndi matenda a epidemiology. Taganizirani za chiwindi ("chimfine"). Chaka chilichonse, miliri ya matenda a chimfine nthawi zambiri imayambitsa matenda ambirimbiri komanso anthu ambirimbiri padziko lonse lapansi. Kuwonjezera apo, chaka chilichonse, pali kuthekera kuti mtundu wina wa nkhuku ukhoza kutuluka umene ungaphe mamilioni. Mwachitsanzo, kuphulika kwa (Morens and Fauci 2007) 1918, akuti akupha pakati pa anthu 50 ndi 100 miliyoni (Morens and Fauci 2007) . Chifukwa cha kufunika koyang'anira ndi kutengapo mbali ku chiwopsezo cha matenda a chimfine, maboma padziko lonse adayambitsa machitidwe oyendetsa nkhuku. Mwachitsanzo, bungwe la US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) nthawi zonse ndikusonkhanitsa mauthenga kuchokera kwa madokotala osankhidwa mdziko lonse. Ngakhale kuti dongosolo lino limapereka deta yapamwamba, ili ndi malipoti. Izi zikutanthauza kuti chifukwa cha nthawi yomwe dokotala akubwera kuchokera kwa madokotala kuyeretsedwa, kusinthidwa, ndi kusindikizidwa, CDC imatulutsa zotsatira za kuchuluka kwa chimfine komwe kunali masabata awiri apitawo. Koma, poyambitsa mliri wowonongeka, akuluakulu a zaumoyo sakufuna kudziwa momwe nkhuku imakhalapo masabata awiri apitawo; iwo akufuna kudziwa momwe nkhuku ilili pakali pano.

Pa nthawi yomwe CDC ikusonkhanitsa deta kuti imvere fuluwenza, Google ikusonkhanitsanso deta yowonjezereka, ngakhale kuti ndi yosiyana. Anthu ochokera kudziko lonse akutumiza mafunso ku Google, ndipo ena mwa mafunsowa monga "mankhwala a chimfine" ndi "zizindikiro za chimfine" -chikhoza kusonyeza kuti munthu amene akufunsa funsoli ali ndi chimfine. Koma, pogwiritsa ntchito mafunsowo pofuna kulingalira kuti kufalikira kwachilendo ndi kovuta: sikuti aliyense amene ali ndi chifuwa amachititsa chifuwa chofuna kufanana, osati kufufuza komwe kulikonse kumachokera kwa munthu yemwe ali ndi chimfine.

Jeremy Ginsberg ndi gulu la ogwirizana (2009) , ena ku Google ndi ena ku CDC, anali ndi lingaliro lofunika ndi luntha kuti aphatikize magwero awiri awa. Ofufuzawa anagwiritsa ntchito deta yofufuza mofulumira komanso yolakwika ndi deta ya CDC yozengereza komanso yolondola kuti apange kuchuluka kwabwino kwa chiwindi. Njira inanso yoganizira izi ndikuti adagwiritsa ntchito deta yosaka kuti lifulumize deta ya CDC.

Mwachindunji, kugwiritsa ntchito deta kuyambira 2003 mpaka 2007, Ginsberg ndi anzake amaganiza kuti pali kusiyana pakati pa kufalikira kwa khofi mu deta ya CDC komanso voti yofufuzira kwa mawu 50 million osiyana. Kuchokera mu ndondomekoyi, yomwe idasokonezedwa kwambiri ndipo sinkafunike kudziwa zachipatala, akatswiriwa adapeza mafunso okwana 45 omwe ankawoneka kuti ndiwotchukitsa deta ya CDC. Kenaka, pogwiritsa ntchito maubwenzi omwe adaphunzira kuchokera mu chiwerengero cha 2003-2007, Ginsberg ndi anzake adayesa chitsanzo chawo pa nyengo ya fuko la 2007-2008. Iwo adapeza kuti njira zawo zingapangitse zowonongeka ndi zowona (fanizo 2.6). Zotsatirazi zinasindikizidwa mu Nature ndi kulandira chithandizo cha press adoring. Ntchitoyi-yomwe imatchedwa Trends Flu-Google imakhala fanizo mobwerezabwereza za mphamvu ya deta yaikulu kuti isinthe dziko.

Chithunzi 2.6: Jeremy Ginsberg ndi ogwira nawo ntchito (2009) adagwirizanitsa data ya Google yofufuza ndi CDC data kuti apange mafilimu a Google Flu, omwe angayambe kufanana ndi matenda omwe ali ndi matenda a chimfine (ILI). Zotsatira za chiwerengerochi ndi za m'chigawo cha Atlantic ku United States mu nyengo ya fuko la 2007-2008. Ngakhale kuti poyamba linkalonjeza, ntchito za Google Flu Trends zinawonongeka pakapita nthawi (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013; Lazer et al. 2014) . Kuchokera ku Ginsberg et al. (2009) , chithunzi 3.

Komabe, nkhani yooneka bwino imeneyi inadzakhala manyazi. Patapita nthawi, ofufuza anapeza zofooka ziwiri zomwe zimapangitsa kuti Google Flu Trends zisamvetseke kuposa momwe zinayambira poyamba. Choyamba, kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa Mafilimu a Google Flu kwenikweni kunalibebwino kusiyana ndi kachitidwe kodzichepetsa komwe kumayesa kuchuluka kwa chimfine chochokera ku zowonjezera zowonongeka kuchokera ku zigawo ziwiri zomwe zaposachedwapa za matenda a chimfine (Goel et al. 2010) . Ndipo, nthawi zina, Google Flu Trends inali yoipa kuposa njira yosavuta (Lazer et al. 2014) . Mwa kuyankhula kwina, Ma Trends a Google Flu ndi ma data ake onse, kuphunzira makina, ndi makina amphamvu sanawononge mopambanitsa zosavuta kumva ndi zosavuta kumva. Izi zikutanthauza kuti pofufuza zochitika zilizonse kapena zowonongeka, nkofunika kuyerekezera motsutsana ndi mfundo yoyamba.

Zofunika chenjezo lachiwiri Google Matenda a Chimfine Trends ndi mphamvu yake kuneneratu CDC chimfine deta anali sachedwa kulephera zing'onozing'ono yaitali kuwola chifukwa cha kulowerera ndi algorithmic lothetsa. Mwachitsanzo, mu 2009 Kuphulika kwa matenda a nkhumba ku Google Flu Trends kudabwitsa kwambiri kuchuluka kwa chiwindi, mwinamwake chifukwa chakuti anthu amatha kusintha khalidwe lawo lofufuzira chifukwa cha mantha a mliri wadziko lonse (Cook et al. 2011; Olson et al. 2013) . Kuwonjezera pa mavuto awa a nthawi yayitali, ntchitoyi inafota pang'ono pang'onopang'ono. Kuzindikira zifukwa za kuwonongeka kwa nthawi yayitali ndi zovuta chifukwa kusinthika kwa Google ndizokwanira, koma zikuwoneka kuti mu 2011 Google inayamba kufotokoza zokhudzana ndi zofufuzira zomwe anthu amafufuzira zizindikiro monga chimfine ndi "chifuwa" (zikuwonekeranso kuti gawo ili silikugwiranso ntchito). Kuwonjezera pulogalamuyi ndi chinthu choyenera kuchita ngati mukuyendetsa injini yosaka, koma kusintha kosinthika kumeneku kunakhala ndi zotsatira zofufuzira zambiri zokhudzana ndi thanzi zomwe zinachititsa kuti Google Flu Trends iwonetsere kufalikira kwa chiwindi (Lazer et al. 2014) .

Mipando iwiriyi imaphatikizapo zoyesayesa zamtsogolo, koma sizidzaziwononge. Ndipotu, pogwiritsa ntchito njira zowonongeka, Lazer et al. (2014) ndi Yang, Santillana, and Kou (2015) adatha kupeŵa mavuto awiriwa. Kupitabe patsogolo, ndikuyembekeza kuti maphunziro a posachedwapa omwe akuphatikizapo ma data akuluakulu ndi deta yomwe idzasankhidwa idzathandiza makampani ndi maboma kupanga zolingalira zowonjezera komanso zowonjezereka molondola pofulumizitsa chiyeso chilichonse chomwe chimapangidwanso mobwerezabwereza ndi zina. Ntchito zamakono monga Google Flu Trends zimasonyezanso chomwe chingachitike ngati magulu akuluakulu a deta akuphatikizidwa ndi deta zambiri zomwe zapangidwa pofuna cholinga. Poganizira mofanana ndi chithunzi cha chaputala 1, kufotokozera mwachidule kumatha kuyanjana ndi azimayi omwe ali ndi kalembedwe ka Duchamp omwe ali ndi mawonekedwe a Michelangelo kuti apereke chisankho pa nthawi yoyenera komanso yolondola ya zomwe zikuchitika komanso zam'tsogolo.