2.4.1 kuwerengera zinthu

Simple ochuluka zingakhale zosangalatsa ngati inu kuphatikiza funso labwino ndi deta wabwino.

Ngakhale kuti ili ndi chilankhulo cholumikizira bwino, kufufuza kochuluka kwa anthu kumangokhala kuwerengera zinthu. M'nthaŵi ya deta yaikulu, ofufuza akhoza kuwerenga kuposa kale lonse, koma sizikutanthauza kuti ayambe kuwerengera mosavuta. M'malo mwake, ochita kafukufuku ayenera kufunsa kuti: Ndi zinthu ziti zofunika kuziwerenga? Izi zingawoneke ngati nkhani yodzigonjetsa, koma pali njira zambiri.

Kawirikawiri ophunzira amawalimbikitsa kuwerengera kafukufuku powauza kuti: "Ndiwerengera chinthu chimene palibe wina adayambapo. Mwachitsanzo, wophunzira anganene kuti anthu ambiri aphunzira anthu othawa kwawo ndipo anthu ambiri amaphunzira mapasa, koma palibe amene waphunzira mapasa akuthawa. Pazochitika zanga, njira iyi, yomwe ndimayitcha kukhudzidwa ndi kupezeka , sizimangobweretsa kafukufuku wabwino. Kulimbikitsidwa ndi kupezeka kuli ngati kumanena kuti pali dzenje kumeneko, ndipo ndikupita kukagwira ntchito mwakhama kuti ndidzaze. Koma osati dzenje lililonse liyenera kudzazidwa.

Mmalo molimbikitsana ndi kupezeka, ndikuganiza njira yabwino ndikufunsira mafunso ofufuza omwe ali ofunika kapena osangalatsa (kapena onse awiri). Zonsezi zimakhala zovuta kufotokozera, koma njira imodzi yoganizira kafukufuku wofunikira ndi yakuti imakhala ndi zotsatira zowoneka kapena zowonjezera mu chisankho chofunikira cha opanga malamulo. Mwachitsanzo, kuyerekezera chiwerengero cha kusowa kwa ntchito n'kofunika chifukwa ndi chisonyezero cha chuma chomwe chimayambitsa zisankho. Kawirikawiri, ndikuganiza kuti ochita kafukufuku ali ndi malingaliro abwino kwambiri. Kotero, mu gawo lonseli, ndikupereka zitsanzo ziwiri zomwe ndikuganiza kuti kuziwerenga ndi zosangalatsa. Pazochitika zonsezi, ochita kafukufuku sanali kuwerengera mosavuta; M'malo mwake, iwo anali kuwerengera mwadongosolo kwambiri zomwe zinawunikira malingaliro ofunikira ku malingaliro okhudzana ndi momwe chikhalidwe cha anthu chimagwirira ntchito. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, zambiri zomwe zimapangitsa kuwonetsa kwake kuwonetsa zosangalatsa si deta yokha, imachokera ku malingaliro ambiri.

Chitsanzo chimodzi cha mphamvu yosawerengera yowerengera ikuchokera ku Henry Farber's (2015) kafukufuku wa khalidwe la madalaivala a taxi ku New York City. Ngakhale kuti gululi silingakhale lochititsa chidwi, ndilo lofufuza malo oyenerera poyesera malingaliro awiri okhudzana ndi zachuma. Zolinga za kafukufuku wa Farber, pali zigawo ziwiri zofunika pa malo ogwira ntchito a madalaivala a magalimoto: (1) malipiro awo a ola limodzi amatha kusintha tsiku ndi tsiku, pogwiritsa ntchito mbali monga nyengo, ndi (2) maola omwe ntchito ikhoza kusinthasintha tsiku lililonse malinga ndi zosankha zawo. Izi zimayambitsa funso lochititsa chidwi la ubale pakati pa malipiro ndi maora ola limodzi. Zithunzi zamakono za zachuma zimanena kuti madalaivala amatekisi adzagwira ntchito kwambiri masiku omwe ali ndi malipiro oposa ola limodzi. Momwemonso, zitsanzo zochokera kuzinthu zamalonda zimalosera chimodzimodzi. Ngati oyendetsa madalaivala amapereka ndalama zenizeni-nena $ 100 patsiku-ndipo mugwire ntchito mpaka cholingacho chikwaniritsidwe, ndiye madalaivala amatha kugwira ntchito maora ochepa pa masiku omwe akupeza zambiri. Mwachitsanzo, ngati muli ndi cholinga, mukhoza kumaliza maola anayi pa tsiku labwino ($ 25 pa ora) ndi maola asanu tsiku loipa ($ 20 pa ora). Kotero, kodi madalaivala amagwira ntchito maola ochulukirapo masiku omwe ali ndi malipiro apamwamba ola limodzi (monga momwe ananeneratu ndi mafano a neoclassical) kapena maola ochulukirapo pa masiku okhala ndi malipiro ochepa ola limodzi (monga momwe ananenedweratu ndi machitidwe a zachuma)?

Poyankha funsoli Farber analandira deta paulendo uliwonse wamatekisi wotengedwa ndi New York City cabs kuyambira 2009 mpaka 2013, deta yomwe ilipo tsopano. Deta izi-zomwe zimasonkhanitsidwa ndi mamitala zamagetsi kuti mzinda ukusowa kuti taisisi zizigwiritsa ntchito-kuphatikizapo chidziwitso cha ulendo uliwonse: kuyamba nthawi, kuyamba malo, nthawi yotsiriza, malo otsiriza, mtengo, ndi nsonga (ngati nsonga inkaperekedwa ndi khadi la ngongole) . Pogwiritsa ntchito deta yamatawu, Farber adapeza kuti madalaivala ambiri amagwira ntchito masiku ambiri pamene malipiro ali apamwamba, mogwirizana ndi chiphunzitso cha neoclassical.

Kuwonjezera pa kupeza kwakukulu kumeneku, Farber adatha kugwiritsa ntchito kukula kwa deta kuti amvetsetse bwino kugonana ndi mphamvu. Anapeza kuti, patapita nthawi, madalaivala atsopano amaphunzira kukagwira ntchito maola ambiri pamasiku a malipiro apamwamba (mwachitsanzo, amaphunzira kuchita monga momwe chikhalidwe cha neoclassical chikunenera). Ndipo madalaivala atsopano amene amachita mofanana ndi omwe amalandira ndalamazo amatha kusiya kusiya madalaivala. Zonsezi zowoneka zowoneka, zomwe zimathandiza kufotokoza khalidwe lowonedwa la oyendetsa galimoto, zinali zotheka chifukwa cha kukula kwa dataset. Iwo sankatha kuwona m'maphunziro oyambirira omwe ankagwiritsa ntchito mapepala apamtayipi apamtunda kuchokera kwa madalaivala ang'onoang'ono a galimoto kwa kanthaŵi kochepa (Camerer et al. 1997) .

Kuphunzira kwa Farber kunali pafupi kwambiri ndi kafukufuku pogwiritsa ntchito chitukuko chachikulu chifukwa deta yomwe inasonkhanitsidwa ndi mzinda inali pafupi kwambiri ndi deta yomwe Farber akanatha kuisonkhanitsa (kusiyana kosiyana ndikuti Farber angafune deta pa chiwerengero chonse malipiro-amapeza kuphatikiza maulendo-koma deta ya mzindawo ikuphatikizapo malangizo omwe amaperekedwa ndi khadi la ngongole). Komabe, deta yokhayo sinali yokwanira. Chinsinsi cha kufufuza kwa Farber chinali kubweretsa funso lochititsa chidwi ku deta, funso lomwe liri ndi zifukwa zazikulu kupyola malo okhawa.

Chitsanzo chachiwiri chowerengera zinthu chimabwera kuchokera ku kafukufuku wa Gary King, Jennifer Pan, ndi Molly Roberts (2013) . Pankhaniyi, komabe ochita kafukufukuyo adatha kusonkhanitsa deta yawo yaikulu ndipo adayenera kuthana ndi mfundo yakuti deta yawo sinali yomaliza.

Mfumu ndi anzake adalimbikitsidwa chifukwa chakuti zida zankhondo za ku China zikuyang'aniridwa ndi zipangizo zambiri za boma zomwe zikuganiziridwa kuti zikuphatikizapo zikwizikwi za anthu. Ochita kafukufuku ndi nzika, komabe, sadziwa momwe zizindikirozi zimasinthira zomwe ziyenera kuchotsedwa. Akatswiri a ku China ali ndi ziyembekezo zosiyana zokhudzana ndi mtundu uliwonse wa malo omwe angathe kuchotsedwa. Ena amaganiza kuti zolemba zapadera zimaganizira zolemba zomwe zikutsutsa boma, pamene ena amaganiza kuti amaganizira zolemba zomwe zimalimbikitsa makhalidwe, monga zionetsero. Kufufuza momwe ziyembekezozi zilili zoona zimakhudza momwe akatswiri amadziwira China ndi maboma ena omwe amachititsa chidwi. Choncho, Mfumu ndi anzake ankafuna kuyerekeza malo omwe adafalitsidwa ndipo kenako anachotsedwa ndi zilembo zomwe zinafalitsidwa ndipo sizimachotsedwa.

Kusonkhanitsa posts izi nawo chidwi zomangamanga chintchito kukwawa oposa 1,000 Chinese chikhalidwe TV Websites aliyense ndi wosiyana tsamba masanjidwe kupeza posts zogwirizana, ndiyeno mobwerezabwereza posts izi kuona amene kenako zichotsedwa. Kuwonjezera pa mavuto zomangamanga yachibadwa kugwirizana ndi lalikulu lonse ukonde-crawling, ntchitoyi anali ndi mavuto ochuluka kuti anayenera kukhala mofulumira kwambiri chifukwa ambiri kupimidwa posts akutengedwa pansi mu maola 24. M'mawu ena, ndi crawler wosakwiya tiphonye zambiri posts amene kupimidwa. Komanso crawlers anali kuchita izi zosonkhanitsira onse deta pamene kuchizemba kudziwika Kuopera kuti chikhalidwe TV Websites polepheretsa kapena kusintha malamulo awo poyankha phunzirolo.

Panthawi imene ntchito yaikulu yaumisiriyi idatsirizidwa, Mfumu ndi anzake adapeza mitu yokwana 11 miliyoni pa mutu 85 wosiyana, uliwonse uli ndi mphamvu zoganizira. Mwachitsanzo, mutu wokhudzidwa kwambiri ndi Ai Weiwei, wojambula wosakanikirana; Nkhani yokhudzidwa pakati pamtima ndi kuyamikira ndi kuyesa kwa ndalama za Chineina, ndipo nkhani yovuta kwambiri ndi Komiti ya Padziko Lonse. Pa malo 11 miliyoni awa, pafupifupi 2 miliyoni anali atafufuzidwa. Zodabwitsa kuti, Mfumu ndi anzake adapeza kuti zolemba pazomwe zimakhala zovuta kwambiri zinkatchulidwa kokha mobwerezabwereza kusiyana ndi nsanamira zapakati ndi zochepa. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, zida za ku China zokhudzana ndi zolemba za Ai Weiwei ndizolemba zomwe zimatchula za World Cup. Zotsatirazi sizikugwirizana ndi lingaliro lakuti boma likuyang'ana zonse zolemba pa nkhani zovuta.

Kuwerengeka kosavuta kwa kafukufuku wotsutsana ndi nkhani kungakhale kusocheretsa, komabe. Mwachitsanzo, boma lingagwiritse ntchito zolemba zomwe zikuthandizira Ai Weiwei, koma asiye zilemba zomwe zimamukhudza. Pofuna kusiyanitsa pakati pa zolembazo mosamala kwambiri, ochita kafukufuku anafunika kuwonetsa malingaliro a gawo lililonse. Mwamwayi, ngakhale ntchito zambiri, njira zodzidzimvera zokhazokha zogwiritsiridwa ntchito pogwiritsira ntchito zamasulira zazinthu zisanafikepo sizidali zabwino kwambiri m'madera ambiri (ganizirani mozama ku mavuto omwe amapanga nthawi ya September 11, 2001 yomwe yafotokozedwa mu gawo 2.3.9). Choncho, Mfumu ndi anzawo akufunikira njira yothetsera maulendo 11 miliyoni omwe amawauza kuti ndi (1) kutsutsa boma, (2) kuthandizira boma, kapena (3) mauthenga opanda pake kapena enieni okhudza zochitikazo. Izi zikuwoneka ngati ntchito yaikulu, koma adathetsa izo pogwiritsa ntchito chinyengo champhamvu chomwe chimafala mu sayansi koma sichikhala chosowa kwambiri mu maphunziro a chikhalidwe cha anthu: maphunziro oyang'aniridwa ; onani chithunzi 2.5.

Choyamba, mu sitepe yomwe imatchedwa kuti preprocessing , ofufuzawa adasintha mauthenga omwe amachititsa anthu kuti akhale malemba , omwe ali ndi mzere umodzi wa chilembo chilichonse ndi ndondomeko imodzi yomwe inalemba ngati zolembazo zili ndi mawu enieni (mwachitsanzo, kutsutsa kapena magalimoto) . Kenaka, gulu lothandizira ochita kafukufuku linalemba mawu a zitsanzo zazithunzi. Kenaka, iwo adagwiritsa ntchito detayi kuti apange makina ophunzirira makina omwe angapangitse malingaliro a chithunzi chotsatira malingaliro ake. Pomalizira, iwo adagwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo ichi kuti aganizire malingaliro a anthu 11 miliyoni.

Choncho, m'malo mowerenga ndi kulemba malemba 11 miliyoni-omwe sangathe kugwiritsidwa ntchito moyenera-Mfumu ndi anzake amagwiritsidwa ntchito pamanja polemba ziwerengero zazing'ono ndipo amagwiritsa ntchito maphunziro oyang'aniridwa kuti aganizire malingaliro awo onse. Atatha kufotokoza izi, adatha kuganiza kuti, mwinamwake chodabwitsa, mwayi wotsogoleredwa unali wosagwirizana ngakhale kuti unali wovuta pa boma kapena pothandizira boma.

Chithunzi 2.5: Ndondomeko yosavuta yowonongeka ndi King, Pan, and Roberts (2013) kuti awonetsere maganizo a anthu 11 miliyoni ochokera ku China. Choyamba, poyendetseratu , ochita kafukufukuwo adasintha mauthenga omwe anthu amawalemba kuti akhale malemba (onani Grimmer and Stewart (2013) kuti mudziwe zambiri). Chachiwiri, iwo amalembetsa mawu ofanana ndi zochepa zazithunzi. Chachitatu, iwo amaphunzitsa chitsanzo choyang'anira choyang'anira kuti athe kufotokozera malingaliro awo. Chachinayi, iwo amagwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo chophunzitsidwa choyesa kuti aganizire malingaliro a malo onse. Onani King, Pan, and Roberts (2013) , zowonjezera B kuti mudziwe zambiri.

Pamapeto pake, Mfumu ndi anzake adapeza kuti mitundu itatu yokha ya maofesi ankayang'aniratu nthawi zonse: zolaula, kutsutsa anthu, ndi omwe anali ndi mphamvu zothandizana nazo (ie, kuthekera kwa kutsogolera zionetsero zazikulu). Mwa kuwona chiwerengero chachikulu cha zolemba zomwe zinachotsedwa ndi zolemba zomwe sizinachotsedwe, Mfumu ndi anzako adatha kuphunzira momwe magetsi amathandizira pokhapokha poyang'ana ndi kuwerengera. Kuwonjezera apo, powonetsera chithunzi chomwe chidzachitika mubuku lino, njira yophunzitsira yomwe anagwiritsira ntchito-kulembera pamtundu zotsatira zina ndiyeno kupanga makina ophunzirira makina kuti awonetse kuti zopumazo zimakhala zofala kwambiri mu kafukufuku waumwini m'zaka za digito . Mudzawona zithunzi zofanana kwambiri ndi chiwerengero cha 2.5 m'machaputala 3 (Kufunsa mafunso) ndi 5 (Kupanga mgwirizano wambiri); ichi ndi chimodzi mwa malingaliro ochepa omwe amapezeka machaputala angapo.

Zitsanzo izi-khalidwe la ntchito ya madalaivala a taxi ku New York ndi khalidwe lachisankho chowonetsera machitidwe a boma la China kuti zosavuta kuziwerengera zazikuluzikulu zopezeka pazinthu zina zingathe kuchititsa kufufuza kosangalatsa ndi kofunikira. Muzochitika zonsezi, komabe ochita kafukufuku anayenera kubweretsa mafunso osangalatsa ku gwero lalikulu la deta; Deta palokha sikunali kokwanira.