2.3.6 Osayimilira

Deta yosalongosola ndi yoipa kwa ma generalizations osatulutsa, koma zingakhale zothandiza poyerekeza ndi zitsanzo.

Anthu ena asayansi akuzoloŵera kugwira ntchito ndi deta yomwe imachokera kuchitsanzo chosayembekezereka kuchokera ku anthu odziwika bwino, monga onse akuluakulu m'dziko linalake. Deta yamtundu uwu imatchedwa deta yoimira chifukwa chitsanzo "chimayimira" chiwerengero chachikulu. Ofufuza ambiri amavomereza deta yoimira nthumwi, ndipo kwa ena, deta yolumikiza imakhala yofanana ndi sayansi yovuta pomwe deta yosadziimira ikufanana ndi sloppiness. Powopsya kwambiri, ena okayikira akuwoneka kuti akukhulupirira kuti palibe chimene chingaphunzire kuchokera ku deta yosadziimira. Ngati ndi zoona, izi zingawathandize kuchepetsa zomwe mungaphunzire kuchokera kuzipangizo zazikulu chifukwa ambiri mwa iwo sali oimira. Mwamwayi, okayikira awa ali ochepa. Pali zolinga zina zofufuzira zomwe deta yosadziyimira bwino siyiyenerera bwino, koma pali zina zomwe zingakhale zothandiza kwambiri.

Kuti timvetse kusiyana kumeneku, tiyeni tione kafukufuku wa sayansi: Kuphunzira kwa John Snow za kuphulika kwa kolera kwa 1853-54 ku London. Pa nthawiyi, madokotala ambiri ankakhulupirira kuti kolera yakonzedwa ndi "mpweya woipa," koma Snow inakhulupirira kuti ndi matenda opatsirana, mwinamwake kufalikira ndi madzi akumwa otsekedwa. Pofuna kuyesa lingaliro ili, chipale chofewa chinapindula ndi zomwe titha kuyitcha kuyesera. Iye anayerekezera chiwerengero cha kolera chokhala ndi makampani awiri a madzi: Lambeth ndi Southwark & ​​Vauxhall. Makampaniwa anali ndi mabanja ofanana, koma amasiyana m'njira imodzi yofunika: Mu 1849-zaka zingapo mliriwu usanayambe-Lambeth anasunthira malo ake kumtunda kuchokera kumalo osungirako madzi ku London, pamene Southwark & ​​Vauxhall anasiya chitoliro chawo chotsika kuchokera ku kusamba kwa madzi. Pamene chipale chofewa chinafanizira chiwerengero cha imfa ya kolera m'madera omwe makampani awiriwa anali nawo, adapeza kuti makasitomala a Southwark & ​​Vauxhall-kampani yomwe inali kupereka makasitomala madzi oyeretsa-anali oposa 10 omwe amafa ndi kolera. Chotsatira ichi chimapereka umboni wamphamvu wa sayansi pa zokambirana za Snow zomwe zimayambitsa vuto la kolera, ngakhale kuti sichichokera pamsampha woimira anthu ku London.

Deta kuchokera ku makampani awiriwa, komabe sizingakhale bwino kuti ayankhe funso losiyana: kodi cholera chinafala bwanji ku London panthawi yovuta? Pafunso lachiwirili, lomwe ndi lofunikanso, zingakhale bwino kukhala ndi chitsanzo choimira anthu ochokera ku London.

Monga momwe ntchito ya Snow imasonyezera, pali mafunso ena a sayansi omwe deta yosalongosola ikhoza kukhala yothandiza ndipo pali ena omwe sali oyenerera. Njira imodzi yopanda kusiyanitsa mitundu iwiri ya mafunso ndi yakuti mafunso ena ali okhudza kufananitsa kwa ena ndi ena omwe ali osiyana-siyana. Kusiyana kumeneku kungathe kufotokozedwa mozama ndi maphunziro ena owerengeka m'maganizo: British Doctors Study, yomwe inathandiza kwambiri kuti kusuta kusokoneze khansa. Mu phunziroli, Richard Doll ndi A. Bradford Hill adatsatira madokotala pafupifupi 25,000 kwa zaka zingapo ndipo anafanizira mitengo yawo ya imfa chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwawo komwe iwo ankasuta pamene phunziro linayamba. Doll ndi Hill (1954) anapeza mgwirizano wamphamvu-kuyanjana: anthu omwe ankasuta kwambiri, amatha kufa ndi khansara yamapapo. Inde, sikungakhale kwanzeru kulingalira kuchuluka kwa khansa ya m'mapapo pakati pa anthu onse a ku Britain omwe akugwiritsidwa ntchito ndi gulu la madokotala, koma kuyerekezera kwapakati kumapereka umboni wakuti kusuta kumayambitsa khansa ya m'mapapo.

Tsopano popeza ndalongosola kusiyana pakati pa zitsanzo zapakati-zitsanzo ndi zowonongeka za generalizations, mipando iwiri ilipo. Choyamba, pali zachilengedwe mafunso okhudza momwe chibwenzi chimene chimagwira mwachitsanzo cha madokotala a ku Britain chidzagwiritsanso ntchito mwachitsanzo a madokotala, madokotala a ku Britain kapena abambo a ku Britain omwe amagwira ntchito mafakitale kapena ogwira ntchito ku fakitale ya Germany kapena magulu ena ambiri. Mafunso awa ndi ochititsa chidwi komanso ofunika, koma ndi osiyana ndi mafunso okhudza momwe tingayambire kuchokera ku chitsanzo kwa anthu. Zindikirani, mwachitsanzo, mwina mukuganiza kuti ubale pakati pa kusuta ndi khansa womwe umapezeka mwa madokotala a ku Britain adzakhala ofanana m'magulu enawa. Kukhoza kwanu kuchita izi sizimachokera kukuti madokotala a ku British British ndi osakayika omwe sakhala nawo; M'malo mwake, zimachokera kumvetsetsa kwa kayendedwe ka fodya ndi khansa. Choncho, kufalitsa kuchokera ku chitsanzo kuchokera kwa anthu omwe amachokera kumakhala nkhani yaikulu, koma mafunso okhudza kayendetsedwe ka kafukufuku omwe amapezeka mu gulu limodzi ku gulu lina makamaka ndizosavomerezeka (Pearl and Bareinboim 2014; Pearl 2015) .

Panthawi imeneyi, anthu amatsutsa kuti njira zambiri zogwirira ntchito zimakhala zochepa kwambiri m'magulu kusiyana ndi kugwirizana pakati pa kusuta ndi khansa. Ndipo ndikuvomereza. Momwe ife tiyenera kuyembekezera kuti kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kazitsulo ndi potsiriza funso la sayansi limene lingasankhidwe motengera mfundo ndi umboni. Sitiyenera kuganiza kuti njira zidzasamalidwa, koma siziyenera kuganiza kuti sizidzasamutsidwa. Mafunso ena ovuta okhudza kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka mankhwala angakudziwireni ngati mwatsata zokambirana za momwe angaphunzire zambiri za khalidwe laumunthu pophunzira ophunzira apamwamba (Sears 1986, [@henrich_most_2010] ) . Ngakhale kuti pali mikanganoyi, komabe sikungakhale kwanzeru kunena kuti asayansi sangaphunzire kanthu kuchokera ku ophunzira ophunzira.

Phala lachiwiri ndilo omwe ambiri ofufuza omwe ali ndi deta yopanda malire sali osamala ngati Snow kapena Doll ndi Hill. Choncho, pofuna kufotokoza zomwe zingawonongeke pamene ochita kafukufuku amayesa kupanga zowonongeka kuchokera ku deta yosadziimira, ndikufuna ndikuuzeni za phunziro la chisankho cha parliament cha 2009 cha Andranik Tumasjan ndi anzake (2010) . Pofufuza ma tweets oposa 100,000, iwo adapeza kuti kuchuluka kwa ma tweets omwe amatchula chipani cha ndale kunkafanana ndi mavoti omwe phwando lomwe analandira mu chisankho cha parliament (chithunzi 2.3). Mwa kuyankhula kwina, zinkawoneka kuti data ya Twitter, yomwe idali yomasuka, ingasinthe malingaliro a anthu onse, omwe ndi okwera mtengo chifukwa cha kutsindika kwawo pazomwe akuyimira.

Chifukwa cha zomwe mumadziwa kale za Twitter, muyenera kukhala osakayikira zotsatirazi. Ajeremani pa Twitter mu 2009 sizinali zovuta zodziwika zotsutsana ndi anthu a ku Germany, ndipo othandizira maphwando ena akhoza kuwombera za ndale mobwerezabwereza kusiyana ndi otsutsa magulu ena. Kotero, zikuwoneka kuti zodabwitsa kuti zonse zomwe mungathe kuganiza zomwe mungathe kuziganizira zikanatha kuchotseratu kuti deta iyi iwonetsedwe mwachindunji kwa omvera a Germany. Ndipotu, zotsatira zake ndi Tumasjan et al. (2010) zinakhala zabwino kwambiri kuti zisakhale zoona. Pepala lolemba ndi Andreas Jungherr, Pascal Jürgens, ndi Harald Schoen (2012) linanena kuti kusanthula kwapachiyambi kunachititsa kuti pulezidenti adzalandilapo za Twitter: Pirate Party, phwando laling'ono lomwe limalimbana ndi malamulo a boma pa intaneti. Pulezidenti wa Pirate ataphatikizidwanso, kufotokoza kwa Twitter kumakhala koopsa kwambiri pa zotsatira za chisankho (chithunzi 2.3). Monga momwe chitsanzo ichi chikusonyezera, kugwiritsira ntchito zosayimira zazikulu zopezera deta kuchita zenizeni za generalizations zikhoza kulakwitsa. Komanso, muyenera kuzindikira kuti pali tweets 100,000 zomwe sizinali zopanda ntchito: Deta zambiri zopanda malire sizinayimilire, mutu womwe ndidzabwerere ku chaputala 3 pamene ndikukambirana kafukufuku.

Chithunzi cha 2.3: Mauthenga a Twitter amawoneka kuti akulosera zotsatira za chisankho cha Germany cha 2009 (Tumasjan et al. 2010) , koma izi sizikuphatikizapo phwando lomwe limatchulidwa kwambiri: Pirate Party (Jungherr, Jürgens, and Schoen 2012) . Onani Tumasjan et al. (2012) pofuna kukangana kuti asamalowe m'gulu la Pirate. Kuchokera ku Tumasjan et al. (2010) , tebulo 4 ndi Jungherr, Jürgens, and Schoen (2012) , tebulo 2.

Kuti titsimikize, zambiri zomwe zimachokera ku deta sizinthu zochokera kuzinthu zina zomwe zimadziwika bwino. Kwa mafunso omwe amafunika kupanga zotsatira kuchokera ku chitsanzo kwa anthu omwe adachokera, ichi ndi vuto lalikulu. Koma pofunsa mafunso okhudza kufananitsa kwachitsanzo, deta yosalongosola ikhoza kukhala yamphamvu, malinga ngati ochita kafukufuku amadziwika bwino za momwe iwo amachitira komanso kutsindika zokhudzana ndi kayendetsedwe kake ndi umboni wongopeka kapena wovomerezeka. Ndipotu, chiyembekezo changa ndi chakuti zidziwitso zazikuluzikulu zidzathandiza ochita kafukufuku kuti apange zofananitsa zambiri m'magulu ambiri omwe sali oimira, ndipo ndikuganiza kuti ziwerengero zosiyana siyana zidzachita zambiri pofuna kupititsa patsogolo kafukufuku wamtundu kusiyana ndi chiwerengero chimodzi chokha chokhazikika chitsanzo.