3.4 ndani kupempha

Zaka za digito zikupanga zitsanzo zowonjezereka zowonjezereka ndikupanga mwayi watsopano wosatengera sampuli.

M'mbiri ya sampuli, pakhala pali njira ziwiri zotsutsana: njira zothetsera zitsanzo komanso njira zosagwiritsiridwa ntchito. Ngakhale kuti njira zonsezi zinagwiritsidwa ntchito m'masiku oyambirira a sampuli, mwinamwake sampuli zakhala zikulamulira, ndipo akatswiri ambiri ofufuza zachikhalidwe amaphunzitsidwa kuona sampulaneti yosakhala ndi mwayi ndi kukayikira kwakukulu. Komabe, monga momwe ndikufotokozera m'munsimu, kusintha kosinthidwa ndi zaka za digito kumatanthauza kuti ndi nthawi yoti ochita kafukufuku aganizirenso zitsanzo zomwe sizingatheke. Makamaka, zitsanzo zodziwika zakhala zovuta kuchita, ndipo sampangidwe kazomwe zakhala zikuyenda mofulumira, zotchipa, komanso bwino. Kafukufuku wofulumira komanso wotchipa sikuti amangomaliza okha: amathandiza mwayi watsopano monga kufufuza kawirikawiri ndi kukula kwakukulu. Mwachitsanzo, pogwiritsa ntchito njira zosavomerezeka, bungwe la Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) limatha kukhala ndi ophunzira oposa 10 kuposa maphunziro oyambirira pogwiritsira ntchito sampuli. Chitsanzo chachikulu choterechi chimapangitsa akatswiri azafukufuku kuti aziphunzira mosiyanasiyana pazochitika ndi magulu a anthu. Komanso, zonsezi zowonjezera zowonjezera zinabwera popanda kuchepa muyeso ya ziwerengero (Ansolabehere and Rivers 2013) .

Pakalipano, kuyang'ana kwa sampuli kwa kafukufuku wamagulu ndizotheka sampuli . Mwachidziwitso chitsanzo, anthu onse omwe ali ndi chandamale ali ndi mwayi wodziwika, wosakhala ndi mwayi wokhala sampuli, ndipo anthu onse omwe atengedwa sampulumu amavomereza kufukufukuwo. Izi zikadzakwaniritsidwa, zotsatira za masamu zimapereka zitsimikizo zokhuza momwe wofufuza angagwiritsire ntchito zitsanzo kuti afotokoze za chiwerengero cha anthu.

Komabe, mudziko lenileni, zikhalidwe zomwe zimayambitsa masamu a zotsatirazi sizimapezeka. Mwachitsanzo, nthawi zambiri pali zolakwika zofalitsa komanso zopanda malire. Chifukwa cha mavutowa, kafukufuku kawirikawiri amafunika kugwiritsa ntchito kusintha kwa zowerengera zosiyanasiyana kuti athe kufotokozera zitsanzo zawo kwa anthu omwe akufuna. Choncho, ndikofunika kusiyanitsa pakati pa zitsanzo zogwiritsira ntchito , zomwe zili ndi zitsimikizidwe zowonjezereka, komanso zitsanzo zogwiritsidwa ntchito , zomwe sizipereka chitsimikizo chotere ndipo zimadalira kusintha kwa mitundu yosiyanasiyana.

Pakapita nthawi, kusiyana pakati pa zitsanzo zogwiritsira ntchito zowonjezereka komanso mwinamwake zitsanzo zowonjezera zakhala zikuwonjezeka. Mwachitsanzo, ziwerengero zopanda malire zikuwonjezeka, ngakhale zapamwamba kwambiri, kufufuza mtengo (chifaniziro 3.5) (National Research Council 2013; BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Ziwerengero zopanda malire zimakhala zazikulu kwambiri pa kafukufuku wa foni zamalonda-nthawi zina ngakhale zoposa 90% (Kohut et al. 2012) . Kuwonjezeka kumeneku kosasamala kumayambitsa ubwino wa ziwerengero chifukwa chiwerengerochi chimadalira mawerengero omwe ochita kafukufuku amagwiritsa ntchito kuti asasinthe. Komanso, izi zimachepetsedwa ndi khalidwe zomwe zachitika ngakhale kuti zoyesayesa zowonjezereka zimakhala zotsika kwambiri pochita kafukufuku kuti azikhala ndi machitidwe abwino. Anthu ena amaopa kuti mapasa awa omwe amachepa komanso kuchepa amawononga maziko a kufufuza kafukufuku (National Research Council 2013) .

Chithunzi 3.5: Kupanda ulemu kwawonjezeka kwambiri, ngakhale mufukufuku wapamwamba kwambiri (National Research Council 2013; BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan 2015) . Ziwerengero zopanda malire ndizowonjezereka kwambiri pa kafukufuku wamakono, nthawi zina ngakhale 90% (Kohut et al. 2012) . Zomwe zimakhalapo nthawi yayitali mosasamala zikutanthauza kuti kusonkhanitsa deta ndikokwera mtengo ndipo kuyerekezera sikungakhale kodalirika. Kuchokera ku BD Meyer, Mok, and Sullivan (2015) , chifaniziro 1.

Panthaŵi imodzimodziyo kuti pakhala pali mavuto ochulukirapo omwe angakhalepo, zakhala zakhala zosangalatsa zomwe zikuchitika mwa njira zosakhala zovuta . Pali mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya njira zomwe sizingatheke, koma chinthu chimodzi chomwe iwo ali nacho ndi chakuti sangafanane mosavuta mu masamu omwe angathe kukhala nawo (Baker et al. 2013) . Mwa kuyankhula kwina, mu njira zosagwiritsiridwa ntchito zitsanzo zomwe aliyense sangakhale nazo zodziwika ndi zosakhala zowonjezera. Njira zosayerekezereka zodziwika ndi mbiri yoipa pakati pa anthu ochita kafukufuku wadziko lapansi ndipo zimakhudzana ndi zovuta kwambiri zomwe akatswiri ofufuza apeza, monga Literary Digest fiasco (tawonedwa kale) ndi "Dewey Defeats Truman," maulosi olakwika onena za US chisankho cha pulezidenti cha 1948 (chithunzi 3.6).

Chithunzi 3.6: Purezidenti Harry Truman akugwira mutu wa nyuzipepala yomwe idalengeza mosagonjetsedwa kugonjetsedwa kwake. Mutu uwu unali wochokera pa gawo pazowerengera kuchokera ku zitsanzo zosakhala (Mosteller 1949; Bean 1950; Freedman, Pisani, and Purves 2007) . Ngakhale kuti "Dewey Akugonjetsa Truman" inachitika mu 1948, akadakali pakati pa chifukwa chomwe ofufuza ena amakayikira za kuchuluka kwa zitsanzo zomwe sizingatheke. Gwero: Harry S. Truman Library & Museum .

Njira imodzi yosasinthika yomwe imakhala yoyenera kwa zaka za digito ndiyo kugwiritsa ntchito mapepala a pa intaneti . Ochita kafukufuku akugwiritsa ntchito mapulogalamu a pa Intaneti akudalira ena omwe amapereka mapulojekiti-kawirikawiri kampani, boma, kapena yunivesite-kumanga gulu lalikulu, losiyana la anthu omwe amavomereza kuti ali ngati ofunsidwa pa kafukufuku. Otsogolera awa nthawi zambiri amatumiziridwa pogwiritsa ntchito njira zosiyanasiyana monga malonda a banner. Kenaka, wofufuzira akhoza kulipira wopereka chithandizo kuti athe kupeza ochepa omwe akufunsidwa ndi makhalidwe omwe akufuna (mwachitsanzo, akuimira akuluakulu a dziko lonse). Mapulogalamu awa pa intaneti ndi njira zosatheka chifukwa palibe aliyense amene ali ndi zidziwitso, zosakhala zowonjezera. Ngakhale kuti zopanda pulogalamu zamakono zogwiritsa ntchito pa Intaneti zakhala zikugwiritsidwa ntchito ndi akatswiri amtundu wa anthu (mwachitsanzo, CCES), pakadakali kutsutsanako za kuchuluka kwa mawerengedwe omwe amachokera kwa iwo (Callegaro et al. 2014) .

Ngakhale ndikutsutsana izi, ndikuganiza kuti pali zifukwa ziwiri zomwe nthawiyi ikufunira kuti ochita kafukufuku aziganiziranso zitsanzo zomwe sizingatheke. Choyamba, mu nthawi ya digito, pakhala pali zochitika zambiri mu kusonkhanitsa ndi kusanthula zitsanzo zomwe sizingatheke. Njira zatsopanozi zimasiyana mosiyana ndi njira zomwe zinayambitsa mavuto m'mbuyomu zomwe ndikuganiza kuti ndizomveka kuziganizira ngati "zosatheka zitsanzo zenizeni 2.0." Chifukwa chachiwiri chomwe ochita kafukufuku ayenera kuganiziranso sampulumu yosatheka ndi chifukwa chakuti sampuli zizolowezi zimakhala zovuta kwambiri. Pamene pali maulendo apamwamba a osayankhidwa-monga momwe aliri pakufufuza kwenikweni pakali pano-zenizeni zenizeni zowonjezera kwa omwe akufunsidwa sadziwika, ndipo motero, mwinamwake zitsanzo ndi zosakhala zosatheka sizomwe ochita kafukufuku ambiri amakhulupirira.

Monga ndanenera kale, zitsanzo zosakhala zosatheka zikuwoneka ndi kukayikira kwakukulu ndi ochita kafukufuku ambiri, makamaka chifukwa cha zochitika zawo zochititsa manyazi kwambiri m'masiku oyambirira a kafufuzidwe kafukufuku. Chitsanzo chodziwika bwino cha momwe tafikira ndi zovuta zomwe sizingatheke ndi kufufuza kwa Wei Wang, David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, ndi Andrew Gelman (2015) omwe adapindula bwino zotsatira za chisankho cha 2012 cha US pogwiritsa ntchito chitsanzo chosakhala chotheka Ogwiritsa ntchito a Xbox a American-chitsanzo chosagwirizana cha Achimereka. Ofufuzawa analembera anthu ochita nawo masewerawa a XBox, ndipo monga momwe mungaganizire, achinyamata a Xbox omwe amawatsutsa omwe ali ndi zaka 18 mpaka 29 amakhala 19% mwa osankhidwa koma 65% ya Xbox chitsanzo, ndi amuna amapanga 47% ya osankhidwa koma 93% ya Xbox chitsanzo (chithunzi 3.7). Chifukwa cha zowonongeka kwa chiwerengero cha anthu, chiwerengero cha Xbox chosasamba chinali chizindikiro cholakwika cha kubwerera kwa chisankho. Ananeneratu kuti Mitt Romney adzagonjetsa kwambiri Barack Obama. Apanso, ichi ndi chitsanzo china cha kuopsa kwa zitsanzo zosapangidwira, zosasinthika ndipo zikukumbutsanso za Literary Digest fiasco.

Chithunzi 3.7: Chiŵerengero cha anthu omwe anafunsidwa ku W. Wang et al. (2015) . Chifukwa chakuti anthu omwe anafunsidwa kuchokera ku XBox, amatha kukhala aang'ono komanso omwe angakhale amuna, poyerekeza ndi ovota mu chisankho cha 2012. Kuchokera ku W. Wang et al. (2015) , chithunzi 1.

Komabe, Wang ndi anzake akudziwa mavutowa ndipo amayesa kusintha kachitidwe kawo kosasintha pokhapokha atapanga chiwerengero. Makamaka, amagwiritsira ntchito chingwe chamatsenga , njira yomwe amagwiritsidwanso ntchito kwambiri kuti athe kusintha zitsanzo zomwe zingakhale zolakwika komanso zosayankhidwa.

Lingaliro lofunika kwambiri lokhudza chingwe pambuyo pake ndi kugwiritsa ntchito zothandizira othandizira za anthu omwe akuwunikira kuti athandize kulingalira zomwe zimachokera ku chitsanzo. Pogwiritsira ntchito chingwechi kuti apange kulingalira kuchokera ku zitsanzo zawo, Wang ndi mnzake adasankha anthu kukhala magulu osiyanasiyana, akuganiza kuti akuthandizira Obama mu gulu lirilonse, ndiyeno anapeza kuchuluka kwa chiwerengero cha gulu kuti apereke chiwerengero chonse. Mwachitsanzo, iwo akhoza kugawa anthu kukhala magulu awiri (amuna ndi akazi), akuganiza kuti Obama akuthandiza amuna ndi akazi, ndipo akuganiza kuti akuthandizira Obama pokhapokha atatenga zowerengera zowerengera kuti amayi azipanga mmwamba 53% mwa osankhidwa ndi amuna 47%. Pafupifupi, chingwechi chimathandizira kukonza zowonongeka pogwiritsa ntchito zowonjezera zokhudzana ndi kukula kwa magulu.

Mfungulo wopanga ma stratification ndi kupanga magulu abwino. Ngati mungathe kupha anthu kukhala magulu osiyana ndi omwe amavomereza amodzimodzi mu gulu lirilonse, ndiye kuti chithunzichi chidzabweretsa chiwerengero chosawerengeka. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, kulembetsa mwachindunji ndi ubwino kumabweretsa chiwerengero chosayenerera ngati amuna onse ali ndi mayankhidwe okhudzidwa ndipo amayi onse ali ndi mayankho omwewo. Lingaliro limeneli limatchedwa kuganiza mofanana pakati pa magulu-mkati-m'magulu , ndipo ine ndikufotokoza izo pang'ono muzamasamba pamapeto a mutu uno.

Inde, zikuwoneka kuti sizingakhale zovuta kuti malingaliro omwe angayankhe adzafanana ndi amuna onse ndi akazi onse. Komabe, magulu okhudzidwa-amodzi-okhudzidwa-mkati-magulu amalingalira kwambiri ngati chiwerengero cha magulu chikuwonjezeka. Pang'ono ndi pang'ono, zimakhala zosavuta kuziwaza anthu kukhala magulu osiyana ngati mutenga magulu ambiri. Mwachitsanzo, zingaoneke ngati zosatheka kuti amayi onse ali ndi chidwi chofanana, komabe zingakhale zooneka kuti ndizovomerezeka kuti pali amayi omwe ali ndi zaka 18 mpaka 29 omwe amaliza maphunziro awo ku koleji komanso omwe akukhala ku California. . Choncho, monga momwe magulu omwe amagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga chingwe amakula, malingaliro amafunika kuthandizira njirayo kukhala yowonjezereka. Chifukwa cha izi, kafukufuku amafuna kupanga magulu angapo kuti apange chingwe. Komabe, pamene chiŵerengero cha magulu chikuchulukira, ofufuza amayenda mu vuto lina: deta sparsity. Ngati pali chiwerengero chochepa cha anthu mu gulu lirilonse, ndiye kuti chiwerengerocho sichidziwika bwino, ndipo panthawi yomwe pali gulu lomwe silinayankhidwe, ndiye kuti chingwechi chimatha.

Pali njira ziŵiri zomwe zimachokera ku kugwirizanitsa kumeneku pakati pa chidziwitso cha mchitidwe wa homogeneous-response-propensity-mkati-magulu kulingalira ndi kufunika kwa kukula kwachitsulo zamakono mu gulu lirilonse. Choyamba, ochita kafukufuku akhoza kusonkhanitsa zitsanzo zazikulu, zosiyana, zomwe zimathandiza kuonetsetsa kukula kwazitsanzo mu gulu lirilonse. Chachiwiri, iwo angagwiritse ntchito njira yowonjezera yowonjezera kuti apange kulingalira m'magulu. Ndipo, nthawi zina, kafukufuku amachita zonse ziwiri, monga Wang ndi anzake ogwira nawo ntchito pophunzira chisankho pogwiritsa ntchito ofunsidwa ku Xbox.

Chifukwa chakuti iwo anali kugwiritsa ntchito njira yosagwiritsiridwa ntchito poyesa kukambirana ndi makompyuta (Ndidzakambirana zambiri zokhudza oyankhulana ndi makompyuta m'gawo 3.5), Wang ndi anzake anali ndi zosonkhanitsa zachinsinsi kwambiri, zomwe zinawathandiza kupeza mfundo kuchokera kwa 345,858 omwe ndi osiyana nawo , chiwerengero chachikulu mwa miyezo ya kusankhidwa kusankhidwa. Izi zazikulu zazikulu zowonetsera zimathandiza kuti apange magulu ochuluka a magulu apamwamba. Ngakhale kuti masitimuwa amatha kugawa anthu m'magulu angapo, Wang ndi anzake adagawaniza magulu 176,256 omwe amamasuliridwa ndi amuna kapena akazi (2), mtundu (magawo 4), zaka (4 magulu), maphunziro (magulu anayi), boma (Magulu 51), chipani cha chipani (3 magulu), maganizo (3 magulu), ndi voti ya 2008 (3 magulu). Mwa kuyankhula kwina, kukula kwawo kwakukulu, komwe kunathandizidwa ndi kusonkhanitsa deta yotsika mtengo, kunawathandiza kuti apange lingaliro lolunjika kwambiri mu ndondomeko yawo yowerengera.

Ngakhale ndi anthu 345,858 osiyana, komabe panalibe magulu ambiri omwe Wang ndi anzake analibe. Kotero, iwo amagwiritsa ntchito njira yotchedwa multilevel ulamuliro kuti ayese chithandizo mu gulu lirilonse. Mwachidule, kulingalira thandizo la Obama mkati mwa gulu linalake, maulamuliro osiyanasiyana adatulutsira mfundo kuchokera ku magulu ambiri okhudzana kwambiri. Mwachitsanzo, taganizirani kuyesera kuti muyese kuti Obama akuthandizira pakati pa akazi a Hispanics pakati pa zaka 18 ndi 29, omwe ali ophunzitsidwa ku koleji, omwe ndi a Democrats omwe amadziwika okha, ndipo amavotera Obama mu 2008. Izi ndizo , gulu lapadera kwambiri, ndipo n'zotheka kuti palibe wina aliyense amene ali ndi zitsanzo izi. Choncho, kuti muyese kulingalira za gulu lino, maulamuliro osiyanasiyana amagwiritsa ntchito ndondomeko ya masamba kuti agwirizanitse chiwerengero chofanana kuchokera kwa anthu omwe ali m'magulu ofanana.

Kotero, Wang ndi anzake amagwiritsira ntchito njira yomwe inagwirizanitsa machitidwe ambirimbiri omwe amachititsa kuti anthu asamangidwe, choncho adatchula kuti njira yawo yowonjezereka ndi yotsatizana kapena, mwachikondi, "Bambo P. "Pamene Wang ndi anzake akugwiritsira ntchito Mr. P. kulingalira za zitsanzo za XBox zomwe sizingatheke, adawonetsa kuti pafupi kwambiri ndi chithandizo chomwe Obama adalandira mu chisankho cha 2012 (chifaniziro 3.8). Momwemonso chiwerengero chawo chinali cholondola kuposa kuchuluka kwa machitidwe a anthu ambiri. Choncho, pakali pano, kusintha kwa chiwerengero-makamaka Bambo P. -kuwoneka kuti akuchita ntchito yabwino yothetsera zosokoneza mu deta zosatheka; zokonda zomwe zinali zooneka bwino pamene muyang'ana mawerengedwe kuchokera ku deta yosasinthika ya Xbox.

Chithunzi 3.8: Kuchokera kwa W. Wang et al. (2015) . Chitsanzo chosasinthika cha XBox chinapanga zowerengera zosayenera. Koma, zitsanzo za XBox zolemera zinapereka chiwerengero chomwe chinali cholondola kuposa kuchuluka kwa makafukufuku a telefoni. Kuchokera ku W. Wang et al. (2015) , masamba 2 ndi 3.

Pali maphunziro awiri ofunika kuchokera ku phunziro la Wang ndi anzake. Choyamba, zitsanzo zosasinthika zomwe sizingatheke zingayambe kuwonetsa zoipa; izi ndi phunziro limene ofufuza ambiri amvapo kale. Phunziro lachiwiri, komabe, ndilokuti zitsanzo zomwe sizingatheke, poyesedwa bwino, zingathe kubweretsa ziwerengero zabwino; Zomwe sizingatheke siziyenera kutsogolera kuzinthu monga Literary Digest fiasco.

Kupitabe patsogolo, ngati mukuyesera kusankha pakati pa kugwiritsa ntchito njira yothetsera zitsanzo ndi njira yomwe simungathe kuigwiritsa ntchito mukakumana ndi kusankha kovuta. Nthawi zina ochita kafukufuku amafunanso kulamulira mofulumira komanso molimbika (mwachitsanzo, nthawi zonse muzigwiritsa ntchito njira zogwiritsira ntchito), komabe zimakhala zovuta kupereka lamuloli. Ochita kafukufuku amakumana ndi kusankha kovuta pakati pa njira zowonetsera zitsanzo-zomwe zimakhala zodula kwambiri komanso zosiyana kwambiri ndi zochitika zomwe zimagwiritsira ntchito njira zogwiritsira ntchito-osati zosatheka-zomwe ndi zotchipa komanso mofulumira, koma osadziwika bwino komanso osiyanasiyana. Chinthu chimodzi chodziwika bwino ndi chakuti ngati mukukakamizika kugwira ntchito ndi zosakhala zosavuta kapena zosonyeza kuti palibe deta (ganizirani kumbuyo kwa Chaputala 2), ndiye pali chifukwa chokhulupilira kuti ziwerengero zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pogwiritsa ntchito chingwe Njira zowonjezera zidzakhala bwino kusiyana ndi zosasinthika, ziwerengero zakuda.