3.3.1 chifaniziro
Chifaniziro ndi za kupanga inferences ku anafunsidwa anu chandamale anthu anu.
Pofuna kumvetsetsa mtundu wa zolakwika zimene zingachitike powafunsa anthu akuluakulu, tiyeni tione kafukufuku wa masamba a Literary Digest omwe amayesa kulongosola zotsatira za chisankho cha Presidential 1936 cha US. Ngakhale kuti zinachitika zaka zoposa 75 zapitazo, kusokonezeka uku kuli ndi phunziro lofunika kwambiri pophunzitsa ochita kafukufuku lero.
Literary Digest inali magazini yotchuka kwambiri, ndipo kuyambira mu 1920 iwo anayamba kuyendetsa masamba kuti adziŵe zotsatira za chisankho cha pulezidenti. Kuti apange maulosi awa, amatha kutumiza anthu ambiri kuti amve zolembazo ndipo amangomaliza kulemba mavoti omwe abwezeretsedwa; Literary Digest inanamizira kuti mavoti omwe analandira sanali "olemedwa, osinthidwa, kapena kutanthauziridwa." Njirayi inaneneratu bwino anthu opambana chisankho mu 1920, 1924, 1928 ndi 1932. Mu 1936, pakati pa Great Depression, Literary Digest inatumiza zikalata kwa anthu mamiliyoni 10, omwe maina awo adabwera kwambiri kuchokera ku mauthenga a foni ndi zolemba zolembetsa galimoto. Apa ndi momwe adanenera njira zawo:
"NTCHITO yapamwamba ya makina imayenda mofulumira kwambiri kwa zaka makumi atatu kuti athe kuchepetsa kuganiza kuti ndizovuta. Sabata ino 500 zolembera zinawombera maulendo angapo pa milioni pa tsiku. Tsiku lililonse, m'chipinda chachikulu chapamwamba kwambiri cha Fourth Avenue, mumzinda wa New York, antchito 400 amapanga zidutswa zokwana mamiliyoni mamiliyoni makumi asanu ndi limodzi (400), zomwe zimatulutsidwa. Ola lirilonse, m'NTHAWI YAKE ya Post Office Substation, makina atatu ojambulira makina otsekedwa ndi kusindikiza oblong woyera; ogwira ntchito zamalonda a positi anawatsitsira mailsacks opukutira; magalimoto AMAMODZI amalowa amawathamangitsa kuti afotokoze masitima amtundu. . . Sabata yotsatira, mayankho oyambirira ochokera kwa mamiliyoni khumi awa ayamba kuyendera mavoti, kuti awonedwe katatu, kutsimikiziridwa, maulendo asanu omwe amatsatiridwa ndikuwerengedwa. Pamene chiwerengero chomaliza chikagwedezeka ndi kufufuzidwa, ngati chidziwitso chapita kale, dzikoli lidzadziŵa pang'ono ndi 1 peresenti ya voti yotchuka kwambiri ya anthu makumi anayi [ovota]. "(August 22, 1936)
Buku la Literary Digest la kukula kwapamwamba limadziwika nthawi yomweyo ndi wofufuza aliyense "wamkulu". Ofala milioni 10 adagawira, anthu okwana 2,4 miliyoni adabwezedwa-ndiwo maulendo opitirira 1,000 kuposa mavoti apolisi amakono. Kuchokera kwa anthu 2,4 miliyoni omwe anafunsidwa, chigamulochi chinali chodziwika bwino: Alf Landon adzagonjetsa Franklin Roosevelt yemwe anali woyenera. Koma, kwenikweni, Roosevelt anagonjetsa Landon mozungulira. Kodi Literary Digest ingawononge bwanji ndi deta yambiri? Kumvetsetsa kwathu kwamakono kumapangitsa kuti zolemba za Literary Digest zisamveke komanso zimatithandiza kupeŵa zolakwa zomwezo m'tsogolomu.
Kulingalira momveka bwino za sampuli kumafuna kuti tiganizire magulu anayi osiyanasiyana a anthu (Chithunzi 3.2). Gulu loyamba ndilo anthu omwe akuwunikira ; iyi ndi gulu lomwe wofufuzirayo akulongosola kuti ndilo chidwi cha anthu. Pankhani ya Literary Digest , anthu omwe anawamasulirawo anali ovola mu chisankho cha pulezidenti wa 1936.
Pambuyo pokonza zofuna za anthu, wofufuza amayenera kukhazikitsa mndandanda wa anthu omwe angagwiritsidwe ntchito pa sampuli. Mndandandawu umatchedwa sampuli chimango ndipo anthu omwe ali pamenepo amatchedwa chimango cha anthu . Cholinga chake, chiwerengero cha anthu ndi chiwerengero cha anthu chidzakhala chimodzimodzi, koma pakuchita izi nthawi zambiri sizili choncho. Mwachitsanzo, pankhani ya Literary Digest , chiwerengero cha anthu anali anthu mamiliyoni 10 omwe maina awo amachokera makamaka kuchokera ku mauthenga a foni komanso zolembera zamagalimoto. Kusiyana pakati pa chiwerengero cha anthu ndi chiwerengero cha anthu chimatchedwa kulakwitsa . Zolemba zolakwika sizinokha, zowonjezera mavuto. Komabe, kungachititse kuti Kuphunzira kukondera ngati anthu alionse chimango ndi mwadongosolo osiyana ndi anthu ena alionse chandamale amene sali anthu chimango. Izi ndizo makamaka zomwe zinachitika mu zolemba za Literary Digest . Anthu omwe anali ndi mawonekedwe awo ankakonda kuthandiza Alf Landon, makamaka chifukwa anali olemera (kumbukirani kuti matelefoni ndi magalimoto anali atsopano komanso okwera mtengo mu 1936). Kotero, mu zofufuza za Literary Digest , zolakwika za kufotokozera zinayambitsa kuyanjana.
Chithunzi 3.2: zolakwika zoimira.
Pambuyo pofotokozera chiwerengero cha anthu , sitepe yotsatira ndi yoti wofufuza azisankha chitsanzo cha anthu ; awa ndi anthu omwe wofufuza amayesa kuyankhulana. Ngati chitsanzocho chili ndi zizindikiro zosiyana ndi chiwerengero cha anthu, ndiye kuti sampuli ikhoza kufotokoza zolakwika . Komabe, pankhani ya Literary Digest fiasco, apo panalibe sampuli-magazini yoti iyankhule ndi aliyense mu chithunzi cha anthu-ndipo kotero panalibe cholakwika cha sampuli. Ofufuza ambiri amaganizira zolakwika zenizeni-izi ndizo zokhazo zolakwika zomwe zimagwiridwa ndi chiwerengero cha zolakwika zomwe zimafotokozedwa mu kufufuza-koma Literary Digest fiasco imatikumbutsa kuti tiyenera kuganizira zochokera zonse zolakwika, zonse mwachisawawa komanso zowonongeka.
Pomaliza, atasankha chitsanzo cha anthu, wofufuza amayesa kufunsa anthu onse. Anthu amenewo omwe amafunsidwa bwino ndi omwe amawatanidwa . Poyambirira, chitsanzo cha anthu ndi omwe akufunsidwawo chidzakhala chimodzimodzi, koma muzochita zilibe kanthu. Izi zikutanthauza kuti anthu omwe amasankhidwa muzitsanzo nthawi zina sagwirizana. Ngati anthu omwe amawayankha ndi osiyana ndi omwe samayankha, ndiye kuti pangakhale zosayanjanitsika . Zochita zapachifukwa chosayera chinali vuto lalikulu lachiwiri ndi kufufuza kwa Literary Digest . Anthu 24 peresenti yokha omwe adalandirapo adayankha, ndipo anthu omwe adathandiza Landon anali oyenera kuyankha.
Kuwonjezera pa kungokhala chitsanzo chofotokozera malingaliro a chiwonetsero, kufufuza kwa Literary Digest ndi fanizo lobwerezabwereza, kuchenjeza ofufuza za kuopsa kwa sampuli yosavuta. Mwatsoka, ndikuganiza kuti phunziro limene anthu ambiri amachokera m'nkhaniyi ndi lolakwika. Nkhani yodziwika kwambiri ndi yakuti ochita kafukufuku sangathe kuphunzira chilichonse kuchokera ku zitsanzo zomwe sizingatheke (mwachitsanzo, zitsanzo popanda malamulo okhwima omwe amasankhidwa kuti asankhe). Koma, monga ine ndisonyezera mtsogolo mu mutu uno, izo siziri zolondola ndithu. M'malo mwake, ndikuganiza kuti pali miyambo iwiri yokha; makhalidwe omwe ali oona lero monga momwe analiri mu 1936. Choyamba, kuchuluka kwa deta yosasokonezedwa sikudzatsimikiziranso kulingalira kwakukulu. Kawirikawiri, kukhala ndi anthu ambiri omwe akufunsidwa kumachepetsa kusiyana kwa chiwerengero, koma sikutanthauza kuchepa. Ndili ndi deta yambiri, kafukufuku akhoza nthawi yomweyo kulingalira chinthu cholakwika; zikhoza kukhala zolakwika (McFarland and McFarland 2015) . Phunziro lalikulu lachiwiri kuchokera ku Literary Digest fiasco ndilo kuti ochita kafukufuku amafunika kuwerengera momwe chitsanzo chawo chinasonkhanitsidwira pakupanga kulingalira. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, chifukwa ndondomeko ya sampuli mu zolemba za Literary Digest inali yovomerezedwa mwachindunji kwa ena omwe anafunsidwa, ofufuza anafunikira kugwiritsa ntchito ndondomeko yowonongeka kwambiri yomwe inalemerera ena ofunsidwa kuposa ena. Pambuyo pake mu mutu uno, ndikuwonetsani njira imodzi yolemetsa-pambuyo-stratification-yomwe ingakuthandizeni kuti muyese kulingalira bwino kuchokera ku zitsanzo zopanda pake.
